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Published on Friday, 12 September 2014 23:36

Vuelta a España St. 20

Santo Estevo de Ribas de Sil to Puerto de Ancares

Saturday September 10th, 185.7kms 

So this is it then, it could all come down to this final stage in the mountains - Contador seems to think he has enough in hand to take the overall, Froome seems to think he can still win it. This stage is quite similar to a stage in the 2012 Vuelta when Rodriguez won from Contador, Valverde, Moreno, Froome and Talansky. We're sure to see some of these feature at the finish today too. 

The peloton have had a tough three weeks and they must be dleighted with the organisers for adding the toughest climb of the Vuelta on the second last day. There are going to be a lot of tired bodies tomorrrow and that final climb is going to be a killer. 

Today worked out surprisingly well with Adam Hansen landing the 66/1 odds with a superb late attack. Not at all what I expected, but given the bad luck on a number of stages (and in the TOB with Colbrelli 'winning' today) it was a welcome result. What was very surprising though was the lack of ambition from the peloton on the final day that most of them will have had a chance to win a stage, only 3 riders got up the road and only ever got about 3 minutes on the peloton and were easily reeled in. 

Lutsenko gave me a bit of excitement for a while as he charged towards the finish and it looked like he may even make it for a while, but was ultimately reeled in with just 5kms left to go. 

The Route

The first 100kms or so are pretty easy, a couple of rolling hills but nothing too serious. After this things start to get tough though, with three hills in quick succession, the 2nd Cat Alto de Vilaesteva, the 3rd Cat Alto de O Lago and then an uncategorised climb after 140kms. Then a 14kms descent down in to the valley before starting up the final two decisive climbs of the 2014 Vuelta. 

At 154kms they start on the Alto de Folgueiras de Aigas, a Cat 1 climb of 9.7kms at 6.7% and whatever was left of the peloton by the time they hit the bottom of it, I can't image there will be many left by the top. Sky, Movistar and Katusha are sure to put the hammer down in an effort to thin the group out and put the pressure on early. A short descent is then followed by a little kick up again before the final big descent of the day for 8kms which takes them to the base of the final climb, the HC Puerto de Ancares. 

The Ancares is a really hard climb - the average is 8.7% for 12.7kms but that doesn't tell how hard it gets in parts. About 4kms in to the climb, it hits 18-20% and then after that it is brutally hard for the next 5kms or so with gradients around 13-15%. Kilometres 9-11 are actually quite easy, averaging around 4% before the final kick up to the finish. The last 2kms average around 10% and it will be a real struggle to the line at this point in the race.     

Contenders and Favourites

There are some simple games at play here - Contador marks everyone, he wins the Vuelta. If Froome attacks and gains a minute and a half on Contador, he wins the Vuelta. If Froome can't gain that time but drops Jrod and Valve then he finishes second. Valvderde and Purito are fighting it out for 3rd spot and just in case they are having a bad day, Fabio Aru is waiting in the wings to possibly take advantage and move on to the final podium spot.

The break will go and the break will contain the likes of LL Sanchez, De Marchi, Mate, Niemiec, Meintjes, Coppel, Nerz, Hesjedal and so on. I think they have a chance, but as the pace will be furious on the last two climbs I think they'll be reeled in. Then it comes down to only a handful of riders again.

Froome has to attack, simple as that - he has vowed to race all the way to the final metre of the TT tomorrow and he has shown that he has the legs to take it to Contador in these finishes. A long hard climb like this should suit him as long as he can hang in there when the fast attacks go like he has been doing. When he gets his motor spinning, there are very few who can go with him. He will have to attack from a good way out as attacking on the steep part with 2kms to will be too late to gain the time he needs. He also has to go before the easy part in the run in to the last 2kms so it looks like he will have to attack some 5-6kms from the finish on the gradients of 10-13%. 

The last time they came up here two years ago, Contador attacked inside the 2kms to go banner and seemed to have it in the bank but as he hit the really steep finishing ramp he struggled and Purito reeled him in to take the stage victory. I can't see Rodriguez doing anything like that this year, I'm not sure he will be in the mix with Contador at this stage. 

Sky will drill it on the penultimate climb and also on the final climb until they have maybe just one man left.. but that task is possibly going to be a lot harder given the nasty crash Cataldo suffered today, he came down really heavy and although he finished the stage some are saying he shouldn't have been allowed to as he was concussed. He will not be able to give 100% tomorrow and that's a very important Lieutenant that Froome will be missing. The thing is though that when he has to go, he doesn't need anyone, he just has to put the head down, look at his power meter and drive as hard as he can for 5 or 6 kilometres. 

Contador only has to follow wheels tomorrow - there is no onus on him to attack - but in doing so he may be in the perfect position to take advantage of all the attacks and efforts by the likes of Froome. He would love to win this stage to gild his victory and make up for the disappointment of 2012 - don't think there is any chance that Purito will pass him this time.

Valverde could also struggle towards the top here - he could be in trouble through those steep parts 5-6kms from the top - this may be foolhardy but I'm prepared to rule him out for the win tomorrow.

I think the only one who could challenge the top two again tomorrow could be Fabio Aru. He has been brilliant again and he has been the most explosive of all the riders you could say, although some of Froome's explosions have been pretty impressive lately, like two days ago when he won stage 18, outsprinting Froome after a very agressive ride in the last 5kms or so. I think if he can hang on when Froome and Contador go at each other and sits on until the last 2kms he should be able to explode away from them for the stage victory. He looks the only one capable of it.

Dan Martin has his own personal  battle going on with Sammy Sanchez as there are only 6" between them in the battle for 5th place. Sanchez is probably the better time triallist so Martin has to bury himself tomorrow to try to hold on to his 6th place. I think the second division will be scrapping it out behind - Martin, Sanchez, Monfort, Barguil, Nieve, Caruso and Navarro but I can't see many of them really getting involved. Barguil is sure to attack a few times but he has been pretty ineffective with his attacks so far, has never gotten too far away. 

Overall though, it looks like a three-way clash tomorrow with Froome and Contador having their own GC battle and Aru looking to poach the stage win. I just have a feeling Contador won't be able to hold on to Froome when he goes again in the last 2kms and I think Froome is the bet to win it but Aru could well take a podium too.

I'm adding some break shots below too, just in case.

Recommendations:

3pts win on Chris Froome at 3/1 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Fabio Aru at 10/1 with Bet365

0.3pts win on Jerome Coppel at 66/1

0.25pts win on Niemiec at 100/1

0.25pts win on Meintjes at 80/1

Match Bets 

Pardilla to beat Mate - 2pts at 4/6

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