Tirreno-Adriatico - Overall Preview and Stages

March 12th - 18th 2014

Tirreno-Adriatico. La Course Dei Due Mari or 'The race of the two seas' starts Wednesday in Donaratico with a Team Time Trial along the coast. The big news for the race is the non-participation of TDF champion Chris Froome due to a back injury.  

NOTICE: I accidentaly deleted my entire Tirreno Adriatico preview from my site CMS but managed to restore this much from my cache but unfortunately I lost all the stage previews, including my winning tips on OPQS in the TT, Contador on stages 4 and 5 and the final TT selections.  I will try to recover it if possible..

This denied us the opportunity to see last years TDF 1-2 duelling it out for the first time since then in earnest as Nairo Quintana does take to the start line with his Movistar team. What we do have though is TDF 4th place finisher - a resurgent and happy-looking Alberto Contador, who should make this a very interesting race.

The course is a lot more like a traditional stage race, especially compared to the experimental 'No TT and no mountain finishes' Paris-Nice. There's a TTT at the start and an ITT at the end, and in between they have some sprinters stages and a few really hard mountain stages.

There is some seriously good talent lining up for the race and it could be all to play for right up to the last rider hitting the start ramp in the final time trial next Tuesday.

Paris-Nice organisers, the ASO were a little cheesed off with Richie Porte and Sky when the defending champion pulled out of the race to replace Froome who had a lower back injury. Having said that, this race suits him much more with the Team Time Trial at the start (Sky bring a strong team, including Bradley Wiggins) and the ITT at the end.

The final TT is identical to last year's race, won by Tony Martin - he is back this year to defend his title in that one. Last year's 2nd and 3rd though, Adriano Malori and Andrey Amador are now both riding for Movistar and are both back this year again to try to turn the tables on the big German. Interestingly, there were only 30" seperating 1st place and 17th place (Contador) but in 8th place, only 21" behind Martin was none other than man-of-the-moment Michal Kwiatkowski. Given his TT success in Algarve he must be licking his licks at his prospects in this race.

Speaking of Martin, the other Martin, Dan of Garmin-Sharp makes his belated season debut as he prepares for the Giro in Ireland. He is sure to be a little ring-rusty but look out for him on stages 4 and 5.

Defending champion for the past two years Vincenzo Nibali is trying a different route this year and is at the Paris Nice race instead with the TDF in mind, but Cadel Evans is lining up, he won this race in 2011.  

And we have to mention the sprinters - there is a fantastic list of some of the world's best sprinters here - Greipel, Kittel, Cavendish, Modolo, Bennett, Bennati.. They may only have a few chances to go head-to-head but they should be bloody exciting and quite the battles.. Greipel has been in fantastic form, as has Kittel with several wins each already this season, Cavendish with just the one in the Algarve. Modolo and Bennett could be two to cause some upsets too, they have been flying in their early season races also.

The Route and Stage Predictions

As I mentioned above, the course is very varied, with a flat TTT on day 1 and a flat ITT on day 8, but has some lumpy stages along the way as they cross over the back-bone of Italy. You can see this in the nice, unusual graphic that the organisers provided with a profile of all the stages, from the flat west coast of the Tyrennean to the flat east coast on the Adriatic Sea.

What you can also see from the map below it is that the race, although crossing form the west coast to the east coast, doesn't exactly go in a straight line, rather it goes east a little, then mostly travels in a southerly direction until they reach Guardiagrele, then back north again. Wind directions are predicted to be easterly for the first three days (tail/cross wind) and then a westerly wind for the next three days (a head/cross wind). This could cause problems on stages 2,3 and 6 so the GC men will have to keep on their toes and out of trouble. 

Click on each tab to read stage previews and recommendations. Stage information and predictions will be added closer to each stage. 

Stage 1 - Donoratico to San Vincenzo, 18.5km ITT

Wednesday March 12th

Recommendations:

Stage 2

Stage 3 - Cascina to Arezzo, 210km

Friday 14th March

Recommendations:

Overall Contenders and Favourites

It was not until about 8pm the night before the race started that most bookmakers came out with all their prices, up until then Bet365 were the only ones offering prices and nothing they had really grabbed me. Kwiatkowski opened at 3/1 favourite last night, went 5/2 and 2/1 very quickly, but those who took those early prices would have been better off waiting, he is available now at 10/3 with Ladbrokes.

But is he a justified favourite? Yes. Is the price good? Mmmm not great. It is a very open race and 5/2 or even 10/3 on a young rider up against the proven GC contenders like Quintana, Porte, Contador, Evans and Uran isn't a very attractive bet. But this kid is something special. He can time-trial - he won the TT on his way to winning the Volta ao Algarve a few weeks back and finished 8th in the time trial last year in this race, a TT that is identical this year.. He can climb, as we saw when he danced away from Sagan just last weekend. And he has a superb team with him, a team that are hot favourites to win the opening Time Trial stage on Wednesday. So he should be right near the top of the GC as they hit the hills, even if he loses 20-30 seconds to some of the real top climbers, he should be able to make that back in the final TT. So yes, he has a real favourites chance and will take a lot of stopping. 

Alberto Contador is 2nd/3rd favourite, depending on which bookie you look at, ranging from 3/1 with Ladbrokes to 9/2 with Bet365. I think the 9/2 is an each-way bet worth taking as I think he will be right up there too on the final day with a very strong podium shout. I don't like Contador, never have, but that won't stop me backing him or cheering him on when the money is down! He seems in really good shape this year, both physically and mentally and will be well suited to this course also. 

The TTT might not be their forte, and they are 18/1 4th favourites to win it, but I don't think Tinkoff-Saxo will lose too much time to the winners, maybe 30" or so. So that means Contador has 30" to make up on Kwiat somewhere in the hills. Stage 4 may not be steep enough to drop him, but stage 5 up the Muro de Guardiagrele averages over 22% for nearly a km near the finish and this is where Contador has to go for it.. 20" or more of a gap and 10" stage win bonus could put him right up there towards the top of the leaderboard. It's a tall ask to win ahead of guys like Quintana but he showed in stage 4 of the Volta ao Algarve where he dropped Kwiatkowski on similar gradients that he can do it. 

Richie Porte is next and to be honest, I don't really have the time to make a case for him, I don't think he'll win it, so move on! Nairo Quintana is next and again, opinion is split about him with the bookies and fans as he ranges from 13/4 with Bet365 to 9/2 in a few other places. He has a good team with him, with some seriously strong TT'ers in Dowsett, Malori, Amador and he isn't bad himself against the clock so they should be in the first 4-5. He obviously can climb, the one doubt is the final time trial, and if the likes of Kwiat or Bertie stay with, or close to him in the hills, he will lose some time to them in the TT at the end. He was going well at the Tour de San Luis but has disappeared a little of late and his performance in the Roma Maxima wouldn't fill me with confidence as he couldn't handle it when the pace really kicked up in the closing stages. 

Others to consider? Rigoberto Uran has been going ok too and rode well to chase Froome and take 3rd on Green Mountain, but unless something happens to Kwiat I think he will be super-domestique this week. Likewise for Kreuziger with Contador. Cadel just isn't suited to this race with the TTT, ITT and steep ramp on stage 5 so top ten at best I think. Who knows what will happen with Pappy Horner, but I think the TT's are not his bag so again, a top 10 at best. 

Domenico Pozzovivo looked good last Sunday in Roma Maxima and will probably love stage 5, but he will lose too much time in the TTs to really be in with a shout. 5th to 10th is likely though. There are lots of other riders just behind all these guys though, like Ulissi who has been sensational this year, Mollema, Gesink, Roche, Wiggins, Scarponi, Talansky, a resurgent and impressive looking Cunego last weekend. Jean-Christope Peraud at 125/1 (but will be on Pozzivivo duties) or how about Tanel Kangert at 125/1? Can climb, can time trial and may well slip under the radar of the GC favourites.

So - I think Kwiatkowski is a very strong favourite for the reasons given above, but I think there is a possibility he could fade later in the week and may just be caught out on the steep ramps. It is a very close call between him and Contador, but seeing as Contador is the slightly better price of 9/2 over 10/3 then he is my main selection for Tirreno-Adriatico 2014.

Recommendations 

2pts each-way on Alberto Contador at 9/2 with Bet365 

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