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Published on Tuesday, 18 May 2021 19:10

Giro d'Italia St 11

Perugia - Montalicino

Wednesday 19th May, 162kms

Now this is more interesting! The Giro should really explode in to life on the first day back after the rest day, with a bonkers stage more like Strade Bianche. 2,500m of climbing and over 35kms of sterrati should really separate the men from the boys. 

Who can forget that epic stage back in 2010 when they last visited the sterrati of Montalcino and the rain turned the white roads in to grey/brown mudbaths, caking the riders. Cadel Evans was the hero that day, a hard man for a hard day - who can emulate him and put some daylight between themselves and their rivals? Because I can almost guarantee you that some will have a good day here, and some will have a bad day, possibly a race-ending bad day. 

Four sections of the white roads feature in the final 70kms of the stage, totalling 32.5kms altogether - that's more than twice the distance on gravel roads that they covered in the 2010 stage! The first 90kms are pretty benign, then it goes a bit mad, with the first section of sterrati including a long downhill section, the second including a nasty hill and the first intermediate sprint, the third is a shorter hill but still is 7.6kms long and the final section is just 5.6kms but leads in to the Cat 3 climb that comes just 9kms from the finish. 

And the weather.. what about the weather, which can play a big part in a stage like this.. well it looks like it's going to be wet - maybe not as heavy or prolonged as it has been last week, but there will be light rain for most of the day. There isn't much of a wind to speak of though, around 5-7mph, but it looks like being a headwind as they head west from Perugia in the morning, then it turns around 3pm local time to a northerly wind, meaning they have a tail wind as they head south towards the sprint point and the second and third gravel sectors, then becomes a head wind again on the northerly run to the finish in Montalcino. 

Stage 10 Review

A washout, well and truly, got that all wrong, sorry. I'm done with Groenewegen for this Giro, he's just not got it it seems. It looked alright for a while today as they tried to keep him near the front, and he was sitting comfortably on Sagan's wheel, but then he fell through the field like he had dropped an anchor and was unceremoniously dropped. Bora were superb and their main man delivered on all their hard work, I was fearing that he would end up blowing it.

They had made Sagan's task a lot easier though after shelling the 5/2 favourite Merlier, and they also got rid of Nizzolo and put Viviani and Gaviria under a lot of pressure. Viviani though was very poor in the sprint I thought, he had an opportunity to be taken to the front at speed behind a flying Consonni inside the last 400m, but decided to stall and go in to the traffic, where he was bumped twice and slid out of contention. 

Gaviria also could have done better, he too stalled when he could have gone for it, instead of following Molano he decided to take Sagan's wheel and then just didn't have the speed to come past the power of Sagan. Davide Cimolai continues to rack up the points though with another fine podium. Sagan goes back to the top of the points competition, with Viviani passing Nizzolo, as Nizzolo didn't score any points today, Viviani sprinted for intermediate points too, maybe a confirmation of both their ambitions. We'll find out in a few days whether Nizz stays or not.. 

There was a fun moment at the bonus sprint though, with Ganna doing leadout for Bernal, only for Evenepoel to close them down on his own and then go over the top to steal a second off of Bernal. It's all gearing up nicely for a hell of a battle over the coming two weeks. Remco shows flashes of strength and signs of not being quite as good as Bernal, but they've not hit a big long climb yet, where we should really find out where they stand.

And there are still a load of guys behind them within touching distance, 1 minute with all the racing still to come is absolutely nothing. Simon Yates either isn't in the sort of form we're seeing from Bernal and Remco so far, or he's keeping his card very closely to his chest. I'm sure there will be more to come from him, but this stage could very well be crucial to his chances - he really can't afford to lose any substantial amount of time.

Alexander Vlasov has been solid, being one of the few who have tried to throw it down to Bernal, and he sits only 22" down on him in 3rd place. Astana have been hit and miss so far to me though, they need to get their act together in the next week and a half to look after him with a full team effort, they don't look too coordinated in that front, sending guys up in the breaks etc. 

And should we now be considering Gulio Ciccone as a GC threat? He has been riding brilliantly so far, sitting just 37" back, he has been right there on Bernal's wheel on the climb to Sestola and on the gravel finish on Sunday. For a guy that was coming here to ride for Nibali and maybe go after the KOM jersey or stage wins, it now looks like his priorities have changed, especially with Nibali some 96" behind him in the GC. You'd think he won't be able to stick with Bernal, Yates and Co. when they go full gas on the bigger climbs, but he hasn't shown much weakness so far. 

Hugh Carthy, Damiano Caruso, Dan Martin and Davide Formolo are all within 62" of Bernal, one stage could change that. And even Bardet, Soler and Buchmann aren't totally out of it, but it's going to take something a little bit special from them to pull themselves in to podium contention. All are capable of producing something special though, but they also need to be taking a minute out of Evenepoel on top probably going in to the final TT. 

 The KOM Competition is still as much of a puzzle as it was pre-race, but Egan Bernal is now the favourite, as he looks like doing what I thought Yates might do, i.e. win a number of the big summit finish stages with the big points. Geoffrey Bouchard still leads by 3pts from Bernal and looks like he's the kind of guy who's going to just keep attacking. Gino Mader also looks very keen but he's lost a key ally in Mohoric now, he would not have won his stage without him.

Mollema is 12/1 and Ciccone is 16/1, not sure about either of them - Mollema is going well, but not that well, he was easily distanced by Bouwman in Sunday's stage. I'd nearly rather be on Bouwman at 50/1, even though he's not scored any points yet, all that can change on one of the big mountain days. Ciccone might have to fall out of GC contention in order to switch priorities, although it is possible that he could be far back enough in the GC but still ride with the GC men and maybe be left jump off the front to collect big points on stages 16, 17 and 20 as they go over the Cat 1s out on the course and the Cima Coppi which awards 50pts.

In the team competition, Bahrain are still the slight favourites at 3/1, despite being down in 4th place, 6'49" behind Ineos. I guess Mader and Tratnik can take a lot of time on some stages that the break wins by 5 or 6 minutes, but with Mohoric and Landa out they look weak favourites to me. Bilbao and Caruso will be up there with the GC guys every day, but if one of them falters they are in big trouble. And we could be waiting some days for their 3rd man to come home.

Ineos look bloody strong though, and with Moscon, Narvaez, Martinez and Castroviejo going to be powering it to the finish on most stages they look a big danger. I can see them sending the likes of Ganna up the road some days in breaks too and Narvaez and Martinez could be good for late attacks on stages where Egan is comfortable and they want to try to make other chase. At 7/2 they look a far better bet to me. 

The team I fancied at 9/1, Trek are now 5/1 3rd favourites, they sit in 3rd, 5'47" behind Bahrain. They will need Mollema, Brambilla to keep attacking and Nibali and Ciccone to stay up with the GC guys, but I don't fancy them as much any more. 

I think DQS are still in with a shout too though, they are not far off at all, just 7'44", and that can change in one stage as we know. They still have the likes of Cavagna and Honore for the breaks and Evenepoel, Masnada, Knox and Almeida for the GC, and I think we will start to see a lot more of them in the next week and a half, I think they have kept their powder dry and not wasted energy unnecessarily. Almeida looked good in the last few days, he was flying on the gravel Sunday, but had to drop back to help Remco who was struggling a bit after an incident in the tunnel apparently. He could yet have a big say in this race. I'm going to add another point on DQS at 11/2 and a point on Ineos at 7/2 as a saver. 

The Route

They head west for most of the day, into the Montalcino wine hills with a stage that starts off pretty steady and easy for 50kms, although there are a lot of very rough and badly-surfaced roads along the way. The road gets a little lumpy between 50kms - 65kms, but nothing major to trouble them, then another little lump with 85kms gone.

With 92.8kms gone though, things change dramatically, as they enter the first dirt sector at Torrenieri. There's a little climb first, but most of the 9.1kms of this sector is downhill - the pace is sure to be furious as some teams will look to unsettle the lighter, less robust climber-types. 

Less than 7kms later they are on to the next dirt sector, starting just after the little hill at Bibbiano (1.1km at 8.6%!) - the route passes over the river Ombrone and they hit the tough climb almost immediately. They climb on the sterrati for over 6kms, with gradients hitting 16% midway, and averaging 8.3% for 3.7kms of it. At the top of the hill the road continues through the forest and eventually comes back on to tarmac to hit the Cat 3 Lume Spento (1.2kms at 5.3%) for the first time, this time from the north-west. 

A 14km descent takes them through the 2nd intermediate sprint and on to the next dirt sector, this one also climbing for almost all of its 5kms, including a 1km sector at 6.4%. 4kms of a descent and on to the final dirt sector, which kicks off with a steep ramp right at the bottom and has a sector of 1.2kms at 6.7%. It then levels out a little before coming off the dirt roads and hitting the final climb, back over the Lume Spento but from another side and on tarmac this time, this time it's 4.3kms long at 6.4%.

From the top of the climb there are less than 4kms to go, most of which is descending, with a little kick up again from about 500m to go to the line. There are a number of tricky bends to negotiate in the last 3kms, including two hairpins just outside the 1km to go marker, a sharp left on a narrow road with about 700m to go, before a final left-hander just some 200m from the line.  

Contenders and Favourites

Well this could be something special today. The race has been pretty exciting up to now, with some brilliant racing and some great winners. There's still only a minute between the top 10, but I've a feeling it will not be like that after today's stage. This could be carnage, and we could see some big winners and losers by the end of the day.

Or, we might not.. with a tough mountain stage the next day, does Ineos leave the break go and take the bonus seconds? Do the peloton take it a little bit easier with the dangerous conditions and maybe call a semi-truce to all get home safely? Well it could be all of the above - we could see the break get enough of a lead to contest the win, but we could also see some teams look to really push it to test their rivals and to see what damage they can cause. One puncture or one slide out on a gravel descent could end the race for someone.

What is Ineos's plan for tomorrow then do we think? Well Egan has the jersey, he has a slender 14" lead over the Belgian, he has one of the strongest teams here and he has shown that he can master the gravel with his incredible ride in Strade Bianchi earlier this year. So do they go full gas all day? Do they try to set him up for an attack on that last climb after destroying everyone over the last two sectors of gravel?

The final pull up to the Lume Spento looks perfect for a strong attack away from tired men, with the gradients hitting around 9.5% for about a kilometre of it, just 7kms from home. He could attack, but will he get away? Will he be on his own going over the top and would he win a sprint against some guys like Almeida, Ciccone, Evenepoel etc?

Well, it might just be that Ineos will have to respond to how the race is unfolding in front of them. The last thing they want to do is try to break the race apart only for the support men to fall away too soon and leave Bernal exposed in the last 30kms. A non-threatening break could be let take the stage, with Ineos controlling it from the start, but the terrain for the first 100kms can be conducive to the break making it all the way. If Ineos step it up from the first gravel sector, or maybe the second one up the hill, then the break might have 7 or 8 minutes by that stage and it might be enough with just 50kms or so to go. 

I'll throw a few break darts at the end, but what about the GC men then? Bernal should be right up there, with Moscon, Puccio, Narvaez and Martinez to take over on the first gravel climb after Ganna has done his stuff in the previous 20kms. He should be in the GC leader's group hitting the last climb, but if he gets away with some guys like Ciccone or Formolo or guys like that and someone key, like Evenepoel or Yates is missing, then he will be leaned upon to do all the work.

He is in the leader's jersey, he will want to push home time gains on his rivals that might be struggling, and the others will make him do the most of the driving. That could open him up for a late counter or to be outsprinted at the finish if he's expended a lot of energy. He will have to come home solo and I think that it will be harder to do that than on stage 9, as the final climb is on paved roads and he might not be able to shake everyone off. 

Remco Evenepoeol - could this be the make or break day? Or just another day where he sits there comfortably, closes gaps with ease and follows? As long as he stays within 90 seconds of Bernal going in to the final TT, then he will be confident of taking him. I don't think we'll see heroics, rather a controlled and patient ride again. But, if there is any weakness in him, then tomorrow could be start of where we see it unravel for him, Ineos (and indeed several other teams) will go for the jugular.

Cavagna, Honore, Serry and Keisse will be crucial to him early on, keeping him out of trouble, and they will be hoping some of them can stay with him as long as possible for support on the gravel. Then Knox, Masnada and Almeida will be tasked with looking after him on the hills, Almeida possibly having to sacrifice himself for his leader again like on Campo Felice. But, if there is a bit of a stalemate in front, let's say if there are 20 or so of the favourites together coming over the top, with 3kms to go, then Almeida will fancy his chances in that uphill sprint. 

Giulio Ciccone has been excellent so far, and has marked this one down as the one he wants to win, as he hails from Chieti, not too far away. But how does he win it? An early attack on the gravel? Attack on the steep last hill 7kms from the finish? Outsprinting the others at the finish? Hard to see any of them working, but it could well be that we again see Ciccone agressive in the finale and kicking things off. That might draw out Bernal and maybe Evenepoel, Martin, Bardet, Formolo, Yates etc. and a small group of 3 or 4 could get away and fight out the finish. But is 11/4 worth taking for a podium?

Davide Formolo interests me though - he has ridden really well in SB before, finishing a brilliant 2nd to WVA last year, and was 24th this year. He didn't seem to be in the best of form as it turns out for it this year, but he's been getting better since and his 16th in LBL (only just missed being in the front group) and his 11th in the Campo Felice stage 3 days ago are noteworthy too.

He is capable of a late attack that could be let get a small gap, as he's over a minute down, as Remco and Egan look at each other, and if you give him a gap he's hard to pull back. He could have Ulissi, Conti and Covi there to help him and possibly even that Ulissi is up the road from the break as they enter the last climb, and waits for Formolo's attack to help him. I think though a win bet is the call, he either wins it I think or finishes 6th or 8th, if a small group comes to the finish he wouldn't have the greatest sprint in order to land a podium spot (unless there are just three guys there of course!)

Dan Martin should have a big chance too given the last 7kms are as they are, its the 25kms or so before that that I worry about. And he seems to lack that acceleration that might be needed if Bernal or Yates kick like we know they can, they might get a gap that he just struggles to bridge and comes home 4th or 5th again. Simon Yates hasn't shown anything yet to suggest he'll be winning this, I expect him to come alive in the next stage, but he will need to stay in contact with Bernal in order to try to mount a challenge over the next 10 stages. 

Romain Bardet is similar to Martin, in that, on a good day, he could go very well here. And he has been riding really well up to now, he sits in 13th, just 1'21" off the lead. 2nd in the 2018 SB behind Tiesj Benoot, that was a shock that day to see him ride so well on the gravel roads. Strangely though, he didn't do it again until this year, where he finished in 20th, four places ahead of Formolo, like Bernal, he probably had this stage in his plans. He shouldn't be too far off, but hard to see him winning this.  

Marc Soler could go well, he seems to be flying under the radar a little here, but still sits in 12th place, just 1'21" down. He won't mind the rain and mud, he seems to go well whenever it gets messy. But he's done SB twice and was DNF both times.. This is different of course, and they were back in '15/'16, but it is interesting that he dodged SB at the start of the season, before Tirreno, whereas the likes of Vermeersch did Strade and Tirreno. Maybe it isn't a stage that he's targeting and is looking to the more straight-forward mountain stages instead. 

Then we sort of come to the break/strong puncheurs who could hang in there/late attackers in the betting. Sagan is short at 22/1, but he has finished 2nd twice (but back in 2013 and 2014) and 4th and 8th in SB, but also has been DNF twice in the last 3 attempts. I think he has a big chance of staying quite late in to the race, but I would be surprised if he was competing for the win. If he gets in the break, there might be better climbers who leave him behind on the final climb. If he's stays with the peloton, I think he'll be working for Buchmann, now he has his stage win, Buchmann put in a big effort for him on Monday. 

Quinten Hermans and Gianni Vermeesch are very short in the betting, but that's because they are XC guys who will enjoy this stage and are both going ok too. We saw Hermans quite a lot in this race already, gave us a good shot at 100/1 I think it was earlier in the race. He's only done SB once though, and that was a DNF last year. He was in the group that fought for 10th in Fleche Wallone this year, so he can climb on punchy climbs like this one, and with the cobbles experience and cyclocross experience, he could well be one of the last standing out of the break. 

Vermeersch climbed well on Monday and sprinted to 5th place, in the absence of Merlier, and also sprinted really well after a tough day on stage 3, taking 6th. And now with Merlier gone, I think the team will get behind him for this stage. 7th in Flanders this year, 14th in SB, 9th in E3, 10th in Gent Wevelgem, he's had a brilliant season so far. He has also been a winner in Cyclocross over the years so should not be fazed by the Sterrati. He will need to be in the break though I think and pray that there aren't many climbers with him. 

Gianluca Brambilla I think might have a chance too, he has finished 3rd in 2016 in SB, and was 33rd this year.. He is a winner this year, which is good to see, taking a fine 3rd stage of the Tour des Alpes Maritimes ahead of Tao and Ben O'Connor, securing him the overall victory too. It was a similar up and down day with him attacking away from Tao's group and then dropping Madouas on the Col de Nice, 11kms from home.. if he can do something similar here, he could surprise.

At 33/1 with Unibet he's worth a shot, the 9/1 to podium is good too, in case he's in the break but just can't stay with someone on the final climb. It's possible that he might be asked to stay with Ciccone, but it might be better for them to have him up the road for later in the stage if needed, instead of getting dropped on the first time up the Lume Spento if the pace is really high. 

I was thinking Bettiol might have a chance as he's been agressive and reportedly had been targeting this stage, but Matti Breschel has said today that he will be needed to guide and protect Hugh Carthy, and also that it looks like it will be like a GC mountain stage and so it would be too hard for him anyway, so I'm leaving him. Nick Schultz will be babysitting Yates, Moscon will be babystiing Bernal (unless they try to play games and send him up the road.. then he has a chance). 

Damiano Caruso and Pelle Bilbao are two guys who are going well too, with Caruso sitting in 7th place in the GC. But their DS has come out and said that with Landa gone they are going to switch things up and go for stages now 'as no one remembers who finishes 7th in the GC'. I'm not sure it's one for Caruso, he never wins, but Bilbao could be one to take advantage of a GC standoff at the top of the final climb and shoot off the front, dive down the descent and hold them off on the final hill. And being 3'27" down on GC he should be given more leeway than others. 

Now with Valter out of GC contention, the FDJ guys should be given the freedom to attack again, maybe Molard, but I think the next stage suits him and others on the team, like Reichenbach a lot better. Ulissi could have a chance from a break as I said, if the break stays away, he was keen to get up the road on stage 9 but couldn't stay with the moves later on. Tony Gallopin also could be one for a break, but I wasn't impressed by him either on stage 9. 

Patrick Bevin at 100/1 was one I thought about at first, but he just does not seem to like riding on anything like this. Never has done SB and has DNFs on practically every race he's ever done on cobbles. Chris Juul Jensen could be a long shot at 200/1 that could give us a bit of excitement, he rode well on stage 4 to Sestola, just ran out of gas with all the climbing, this one is a *little* easier. He has finished 7th, 18th and 19th in Strade Bianche and is a tough guy for a tough stage like this.

And there we have it. Still no clear case for anyone, yet another nightmare stage in the Giro to try to figure out. I like some break guys though and will cover with Formolo and Bilbao. If you want to take a look at the gravel sectors in more detail, this ride by Nick Schultz two weeks ago covers 85kms of the course: https://www.strava.com/activities/5245591995

Coming a day after the rest day and the day before a big mountain stage will also play on riders minds and bodies, we really could see carnage tomorrow. It could be a day we see some guys remote GC chances go up in smoke. It should be a brilliant stage to watch though, let's hope it lives up to the hype and expectations.  

Recomendations

1pt win on Davide Formolo at 25/1 with Betway

0.5pts win on Pelle Bilbao at 40/1 with various

0.2pts win on Chris Juul Jensen at 250/1 with Unibet

0.5pts win on Quentin Hermans at 23/1 with Unibet (boosted)

0.5pts win on Gianluca Brambilla at 33/1 and 0.5pts top 3 at 9/1 with Unibet. 

Matchbets

None really interest me right now.