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Published on Wednesday, 10 September 2014 22:46

Vuelta a España St. 18

A Estrada to Monte Castrove. Meis

Thursday September 11th, 157kms 

So after a flat stage for the sprinters on Wednesdsay we hit a stage on Thursday that is mostly flat but has a nice little stinger at the end with a double ascension of the Monte Castrove. There's barely a bump in the road for 125kms until they pass through Pontevedra and then hit the Monte Castrove for the first time. With this being the second last uphill finish of the race we should see a big battle once again!

A good day today that could have been a lot better! Degenkolb did the business with a mighty impressive sprint to land the 11/10 and the match bet treble also landed to net the 6/4. It could have been better as I say if Ferrari could have finished just 2 places higher,  5th place wasn't good enough! Good to see though that the call on him vs Richeze was the right one, would imagine he was posted off to see Cancellara sprinting with Steven taking the two places above him. No changes to any of the GC places but the good news was Degenkolb landing the stage meant he extended his lead over Valverde and he is now in to 1/3 to take it, guaranteed a payout you'd think on the top 3 placing at worst!

The Route

A twisty route that takes them down to the coast where it could get very wet and windy, the forecast isn't great for tomorrow.. It's a pretty uneventful course, unless the wind starts causing problems and echelons, until they reach the 126km mark where they start up the Alto Monte Castrove. 7.2kms at 6.6% doesn't sound too bad, but there are some easy sections at the bottom and some double digit sections towards the top which will make it tough going for a lot of the peloton.

As there are only 24kms left when they crest it for the first time expect the GC teams to really put the hammer down to pull back the breakaway and also to whittle down the front group to a more manageable size for the final ascension. The road is narrow enough but well surfaced and as they approach the summit for the final time it finishes with a downhill run for the last 700m.     

Contenders and Favourites

This has to be a stage for the top GC men again you'd have to say - time bonuses are crucial at this late stage in the race and Valverde and Froome are going to be desperately scrapping for the time bonus and time gaps seeing as there is only 3" separating them or 2nd spot on the podium. Add in Purito's desperation now to win a stage given that 3rd spot is probably out of reach and he is bound to be going for it tomorrow too.

Contador can sit on wheels all the way up, he doesn't need to be the aggressor. I think we will see a similar scenario to stage 16 where Sky drilled it until there were only about 15 left up front, then Froome accelerated and only Contador could stay with him. That is certainly a possibility, and if it happens, it will be a real battle to the line as the 700m downhill finish could see Froome outsprint him.

That is one possibility.. of course on a shorter climb like this Purito and Valverde should be much fresher and should be able to respond better to Froome's attacks. In fact, given the type of climb, it's actually a finish perfectly suited to the two Spaniards. Purito of old would have won this stage. Purito of this Vuelta won't I'm saying, I am leaving him for sure. This finish is perfect for Valverde though and as long as he can go with the front attacks, he could well be the one sprinting to victory from a small select group. 7/2 favourite, it does look the most likely result on this finish. 

It's going to be very hard for Froome to shake these guys on a shorter climb like this, the hard parts are really only about 3kms long so it's a real punchy climb rather than a long power grind he likes. But as I said before, he can accelerate when he wants to like on La Planche, and on stage 16 we actually saw him attacking out of the saddle, a rare occurance. I think he will try and try and try again but may not be able to shake off the three amigos. 

Dan Martin has been pretty consistent overall, the best of the rest home on most stages, and is rewarded with a top 6 placing overall now. He had high hopes for a stage win here though and this is one of only two chances remaining. With colder weather than on La Zubia where he suffered in the heat, and a shorter, punchier climb which is more up his street than the longer climbs of the Asturias, he is definitely going to be aggressive tomorrow. He has to just race his own race and try to jump away from the other guys who may be all watching and looking at each other. As he is not involved in their scrap, he just may get the jump on them this time and make an attack that sticks. 12/1 looks worth a go, he is sure to give you a bit of excitement in the last 4kms at the very least.. 

Aru could be involved but it may be a bit too punchy for him, Samu Sanchez might love this finish, Dani Moreno won't be allowed attack, Dani Navarro could do what he did for his stage win and looks huge at 100/1. Adam Yates, Barguil and Kelderman are all tempting at 80/1, but it all depends on what the GC big boys are up to. If they play games, someone can fly and steal the stage. If they go flat out, it will come down to one of maybe 4 guys who will win it. 

I think it will be flat out at the finish and Valverde is the ideal candidate for the stage win. Dan Martin could be the one to surprise them though with a well timed attack - he can't go too early as he won't last home, has to be in the last kilometre or two. 

Recommendations:

Alejandro Valverde - 1pt win at 7/2 with Ladbrokes

0.5pts each-way on Dan Martin at 12/1 with Skybet. 

Match Bets 

Kelderman to beat Pardilla - 1pt at 8/11

Yates to beat Talansky - 1.8pt at 5/6

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