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Published on Tuesday, 16 August 2016 00:13

Vuelta Favourites and Contenders

A look at the leading players in the GC betting 

Three of the best stage racers in the world in Froome, Quintana and Contador are set to do battle over an extremely hilly course, with almost nothing to separate them in the betting.

Depending on which bookie you use, you will find Contador is generally 7/4 favourite but is available at as big as 9/4 with Skybet. Froome and Quintana are generally available at 3/1, so according to the generally available prices there is an 86% chance of the race being won by the top 3.. 

The top two in the Tour de France last year, Froome and Quintana, didn't have the best of Vuelta's in 2015, with Froome crashing out and Quintana never really getting going, to eventually finish 4th. Of course they finished first and second in the Tour again just a few weeks back, will it be something similar this year? They were almost the exact same price last year at 3/1 and 11/4, with Valverde at 9/2 and Aru at 8/1  - Tom Dumoulin was something like 500/1 and almost pulled it off, I think Esteban Chaves was about 150/1 and he came pretty close too.  

Joined by the likes of Valverde, Rodriguez, Chaves, Kruijswijk, Talansky, Landa and Lopez, it's going to be another cracker over the hills of Spain. Will we see another surprise winner this year, or will one of the top 3 in the betting take the honours this year? And if so, who?!

It's a course that should suit all three of them, with lots of climbing, but the lack of TT miles plays against Froome more than the other two. There's going to be a battle of wills and a battle for the pyschological edge on the very first stage, with Movistar, Astana, Tinkoff adwnd Sky going head to head in the TTT, who will take the slight early edge?

And the battle will rage as early as the 3rd stage, when we will start to get an idea of who has good legs and who doesn't - the Mirador de Ézaro may only be 1.8kms long, but there will be time gaps - last time around Rodriguez skipped away from Contador, winning by 8", with Valverde 13" back and Froome 23" back.. It did come on stage 12 last time around though, a very different proposition to hitting it on only the third stage, but we could well see the GC start to take an order pretty early on in this race. 

Alberto Contador - Tinkoff

9/4 Best Price (Skybet), 7/4 general 

Alberto Contador is the 7/4 favourite in what could well be his very last Vuelta - will he go out on a high? His Tour de France was a total disaster, with crashes on each side on stages 1 and 2, and finally succumbing to the pain (and a reported fever) on stage 9. He was able to rest up though for nearly three weeks when he returned to the Clasica San Sebastian where he finished 29th. But the Vuelta a Burgos came just three days later and he rode himself in to form, and after a tremendous battle with Ben Hermans on the final stage, he took 2nd on the stage and 1st on the GC by just a single second. 

Winner of this race in 2008, 2012 and 2014, these roads are his roads, these hills are his hills - there aren't many better sights in cycling than when Contador stands on the pedals and attacks - and he'll have plenty of opportunities to attack on this race. He'll do ok in the TTT, not as good as Froome or Quintana probably, but he shouldn't be far off, and he'll get an early chance to test his rivals Tour de France weary legs on the climb to Mirador de Ézaro. If he can ride like he did last time up here he could well find himself in the Red Jersey very early in this race, a lead he could well add to on stage 4 if he's in good enough form. 

He doesn't have a great team with him here, but it does have a lot of experience, with Daniele Bennati, Robert Kiserlovski, Sergio Paulinho, Ivan Rovny and Yuri Trofimov helping him out. It should be a course that really suits him, the really steep finishes are right up his street and there aren't very many overly long climbs which he might be put under pressure on, bar possibly the Col d'Aubisque.

He has a big chance at a good result, but 7/4 is way too short - the 9/4 with Skybet is even a little short, but it may be worth waiting until after the TTT as his price might go out just a touch if Movistar and Sky beat Tinkoff by 20" or more.  I think he's a strong favourite and will be looking to back him, just hoping for a little bit better than 9/4. 

Chris Froome - Team Sky

3/1 Best Price (Paddy Power)

It was all too easy for Froome in the Tour wasn't it? He beat them in so many ways, it was almost embarassing for his rivals. To set his stall out early on and go on the attack like he did off the top of the Col de Peyresourde in to Bagneres de Louchon was audacious and ballsy, literally ballsy as he descended on the top tube..

Even when he had the bike incident on Ventoux he seemed to do the right thing, running to get further up the hill and away from the narrow, crowded area he was in, even if he hadn't had his time loss wiped clean his loss would have been marginal and would not have lost him the race in the end.

And he was superb in the time trials too - 2nd to Dumoulin in the first TT by 1'03", he won the second TT by 21" from Dumoulin on a hillier course that suited him better. He never really looked like he was put too far in to the red - ok, he was dropped once or twice on some climbs but his losses were small and manageable, he always looked in control. Or should I say Sky always looked in control, he was a very comfortable passenger in an immensely strong Sky train. Henao, Poels, Thomas and the rest pulled and dragged him all around France until it was time to do his thing.

And the worrying news for his rivals in the Vuelta is that he has a pretty strong looking team here too, with Vasil Kiryienka, Sergio Henao, Christian Knees, Pete Kennaugh, Benat Intxausti and even Leopold Konig is getting a run out. Mikel Landa was originally in the team but he has aggravated an injury to his hip and has been replaced by David Lopez. Without Landa now, it's not as strong as the Tour team, but is definitely going to be giving Contador and Quintana some sleepless nights.

But what about his own form since? Well we've seen him at the Olympics where he was (inexplicably as far as I'm concerned) one of the favourites to take gold, but he never looked comfortable all day without Poels and Henao to lead him around the course, and when the big moves came he had no answer. He battled back with a strong surge for a while, but was unable to bridge the gap, settling for 12th in a sprint with Dan Martin. And in the TT he never looked 100% himself and struggled in parts, but did rally strongly to eventually take the bronze.

So what about his chances here? Well he didn't have a great time of it last year, but we didn't get a chance to see him fully worked over, he was out of the race too early. He did lose time on a number of stages, including when he was dropped on the steep Alto del la Cresta del Gallo on the way to Murcia, the day Esteban Chaves won the stage, he lost 1'22" to Chaves that day and 25" to Quintana. And there are plenty of climbs like the Cresta del Gallo in the first week or so of this race, if he is not 100% he could find himself in a similar position.

Of course he would dearly like to win this race and make amends for the Olympics disappointments, but I worry that he will be ambushed again from all sides on the really steep climbs. He lost time to Contador and Rodriguez on the Mirador del Erazo last time up there, but I think it's fair to say that Froome, Contador and Rodriguez are very different athletes today then they were four years ago. The TT will suit him, he'll probably come close to winning it and put decent time in to his climbing rivals, but will he have lost little bits of time here and there to put him more than a minute behind going in to the final few stages? 

I think the stage to the Col d'Aubisque is the day that he will look to make a mark though, it's a Sky kind of stage with the hard Marie Blanque just before it for Sky to thin out their rivals teams, then for Froome to crush it on the long, hard Aubisque. But will it be too late by then? Hard to know, but barring another crash he has to go close.

Nairo Quintana - Movistar

11/4 Best Price (Boylesports)

I'm starting to worry about Quintana. There have been too many excuses and sub-par performances from him in recent times. He was disappointing in the Tour in that he never really was able to land a punch on Froome, but then you look at the GC, he finished 2nd.. 

Of course he's a brilliant climber, don't get me wrong, but we have seen very little of the exceptional this year and far too much of the mediocre. Attacks that last about 30 seconds, or worse again, no attacks at all. It seems he gets sick or is injured far too often and unless he really is 100% and flying he doesn't even try to attack. He also seems to be someone that is extremely low on confidence and self belief, he seems to not make that attack when others like Bardet or Contador or Froome have no hesitation. 

What kind of ride can we expect from him here? Well after being one of the favourites for the race last year he didn't exactly set it on fire, he didn't even finish on the podium in the end, finishing 33" behind Majka in 4th position. He lost time to Froome on some summit finishes that are similar to this year's race, such as the Alt de Puig Llorenca on stage 9, can we really trust him to finally deliver at such short odds?

Maybe I'm being overly critical of his chances, he has a strong team here with him and the lack of TT miles will help him, as will the power of the Movistar team help him in the very first stage. What will happen with Valverde though? He was a very loyal and dilligent domestique de-luxe for Quintana during the TDF, but maybe he will be given the freedom to go and attack this time around in a bit more of an unpredictable gameplan from Movistar? Valverde had a good Tour all the same and comfortably landed us the top 10 bet.  

So Quintana could be anything in this race - he could dance away from them all on the steep uphill finishes, and with ten of them, and 10" bonuses available on the line each time, he may well look to set his stall out as early as the 3rd stage. It may be though, like with all the others really, that we don't truly see his form and potential until the quintet of hard summit finishes around the first rest day.  

Johann Esteban Chaves

9/1 Best Price (WillHill)

This kid is the business. A brilliant climber, a calm, cool calculated killer and a thoroughly likeable chap to boot. He rode brilliantly last year to take two superb stage wins and finish 5th overall. He followed that up with 8th in Lombardia and a win in the Abu Dhabi Tour to polish off an excellent season for him. 

And he started this year like he finished last season with a brilliant 2nd place in the Vuelta, even leading it with just the two stages to go. Unfortunately he just couldn't hold on to a rampaging Nibali and slipped from being 44" up at the start of the second last stage to being 52" down at the end of it. It was a sensational recovery from Nibali, not many expected what we saw over the final 3 stages, least of all Chaves I think, and it denied him a famous victory.

Rather unusually he hasn't raced at all in the Pro Tour since the last stage of the Giro at the end of May, it clearly took a lot out of him. He has been training specifically for the Vuelta since, but interrupted his prep to race in the Olympics, finishing 21st in the road race, but it was good to blow away some of the cobwebs.

He looks a decent bet to me though at 9/1 - I think he will love all these steep finishes and if he rides anything like he did last year he could well be in the Red Jersey after stage 3. He's got an ok team with him, nothing of the power of Sky or Movistar, but with Simon Yates, Carlos Verona, Amets Txurruka and Ruben Plaza he has some power to support him. But he doesn't need too much help, he almost won the Giro on his own in May.

It will be interesting to see how Orica do in the TTT, this was a discipline that Orica were brilliant at not so long ago, and with Howson, Cort Neilsen and Sam Bewley also in the team, he might get off to a pretty good start too. Stage 3 will tell us a lot though - either he is fit, fresh and flying after his long layoff, or he is a little ring rusty and it might be from stages 8 onwards that he starts to make his mark, he just needs to make sure he hasn't lost too much time up until then. I think he is very capable of a podium and the 9/1 each-way with William Hill is worth taking.   

Steven Kruijswijk - LottoNL-Jumbo

16/1 Best Price (Ladbrokes)

He may never find himself in a position like he was in the Giro with just three stages left - 3 minutes up on Chaves and seemingly cruising his way to victory.. But an attempted feed at the top of the Coll Dell Agnelo on stage 18 saw him momentarily lose concentration and smash in to a snowbank, costing him over 4 minutes on the stage and saw him plummet down to 13th on the GC by the end of the 20th stage. It took him a while to get over it (he may actually never really get over it!) and like Chaves, hadn't raced for the whole of the summer until the Clasica San Sebastian some 2 months later. 

He never really featured in San Sebastian, nor in the Olympics when he finished 39th, but he has focused the last 10 weeks on training for the Vuelta. For such a tall rider, at nearly 6ft, he is incredibly light at just 66kgs, he's all skin and bones and shoulder blades. 

He has a strong team with him here with Bram Tankink, Robert Gesink, George Bennett and Enrico Battaglin and should go well too. He should do ok in the TT in comparison to the other GC men and he should be right up there in the top ten, but I'm not sure he'll make the podium - there's talk he got sick after the Olympics and that might be something that could hamper him in the tough opening week.  

Alejandro Valverde - Movistar

25/1 Best Price (various)

Plan B for Movistar, but Valverde is a bona-fide plan B, riding for Quintana during the Tour, but still taking two 3rd place finishes and 6th overall in the GC. He is remarkably consistent and just keeps pulling out impressive rides race after race - he came out of the Tour and finished 3rd in San Sebastian, getting mugged by Bauke Mollema's fantastic attack. He might find some of the steep summit finishes a bit hard but there are several other stages I think will suit him down to the ground and if it's tight near the top I think he could pick up plenty of bonus seconds along the way. I think he could also go well in the points competition given the amount of summit finishes and his ability to pick up top placings in so many stages. 

Outsiders and Longshots

Not many would have predicted that Esteban Chaves and Tom Dumoulin would have been battling for the win in last year's race, Dumoulin was 500/1 and didn't even come in to my outsiders predictions! Chaves I mentioned at 125/1, but that was basically it, a mention, nothing more. Can anyone do a Dumoulin and cause an upset this year? Let's look at some of the possibile interlopers!

Miguel Angel Lopez, Astana, 22/1 - Lopez is a future star for sure, there's no question about that I think, but 22/1 on a 22 year old in his first Grand Tour looks like madness. But he's a serious talent and the way he won the Tour de Suisse two months ago was very impressive. Some superb climbing displays, including his 2nd to Van Garderen on the stage 7 to Solden over 223kms were followed by a stunning TT over 17kms, where he also finished 2nd, beating Olympic Champion Cancellara, Kelderman, Talansky, Castroviejo and TVG.

He has the might of the Astana team behind him, with some seriously strong and experienced guys like Scarponi, Cataldo, Gruzdev, Luis Leon and Malacarne to support him. I think it would be a big ask to see him finish on the podium in this, but he could well be the Chaves or Dumoulin of this year's race and pull off some really big rides.

Andrew Talansky, Cannondale-Drapac, 50/1 - after a somewhat disappointing year last year, Talansky looks like he has got back on track this year with a number of fine results. He eventually pulled out of the Vuelta last year in the 18th stage when down in 98th place after crashes had badly hampered him. In the last 3 months he has finished 3rd in the Tour of Utah, 5th in the Tour de Suisse and 4th in the Tour of California with a whole bunch of fine top ten placings.

He'll have a good team here with him, Joe Dombrowski will be a big help in the hills, as will Pierre Rolland, Davide Formolo and Paddy Bevin. I think he'll go well in the TT and he might be a dark horse here too but I worry a little that the short, sharp summit finishes might catch him out. I was thinking  that he he is capable of a top 10, maybe even a top 6 if it all falls in to place for him and mentioned to my contact at Cannondale that I was thinking of backing him at 50/1... he replied "That's a good call I think, he seems ready". So I'm going to have a small interest in him at 50s.. 

Robert Gesink, LottoNL-Jumbo, 50/1 - he is almost like the forgotten man, we haven't seen much of him this year, he's not had a great year at all by his standards. But he did finish 15th in Fleche-Wallone, showing he can power up the punchy, short finishes, but I think other than giving it a go on some of stage finishes I think he'll be working for Kruijswijk.  

Tejay Van Garderen, BMC, 66/1 - TVG had a really hard Tour, he never really was at the races and finished a very disappointing 29th place. Can he redeem himself in this race? I don't think so, I can't see him getting close to Contador, Froome, Quintana and the likes. It may even be that we see him working for Darwin Atapuma who might have a better chance on the GC, and is a huge price at 400/1!

How about another 22 year-old who could be a surprise package? Keep an eye on the young Frenchman Pierre Latour of AG2R, he is another star in the making I believe and could surprise a few people here. 3rd in the Tour de l'Ain, took the lead in the Tour de Suisse on stage 5 but crashed out when in 6th place on stage 7. 12th in the Tour de Romandie but winner of the Youth Classification and 2nd in the Criterium International.. he's had a cracking year and could well have a big race here. He's 150/1 with Paddy Power, but maybe a surprise top ten result isn't out of the question.

Conclusion

This is going to be a great race. Last year I picked Quintana as my main pick, but he let us down, yet again. I've had enough of losing money on Quintana, but thankfully I also recommended Aru also at 9/1, so it more than covered the loss on Quintana! Nairo is bound to drive me crazy and win this race in a canter now that I've deserted him, but instead I think Alberto Contador is going to have a lot of fun on this course, and looks sharp and strong following his unintentionally shortened Tour de France. He is full of confidence and has been saying that he doesn't fear Froome and that Froome is not unbeatable, it's Team Sky that are unbeatable.. Well, this isn't the same Sky team that were at the Tour, and I think Contador can skip away from Froome on a number of the steep uphill finishes. Esteban Chaves is my Aru for this year though and I think the 9/1 with Hills is the bet, be quick though, it probably won't last long.  Andrew Talansky can be a possible dark horse too at 50/1.

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Esteban Chaves at 9/1 with William Hill

0.3pts each-way on Andrew Talansky at 50/1 with Corals

I also want to back Contador, want to get 4pts on him, but hoping for bigger than 9/4.. if you don't want to risk waiting and missing it, take it now with Skybet or William Hill