Vuelta Andalucia - Overall Preview and Stages
19th - 24th February
It's not just Oman that sees top class stage racing action this week, as the 60th running of the Vuelta Andalucia starts on Wednesday the 19th with a 7.3km prologue around the town of Almeria followed by three hilly stages and a sprinters stage.
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Previous Winners of Ruta Del Sol
2013 A Valverde (ESP) Movistar |
| 2012 A Valverde (ESP) Movistar |
| 2011 M Rogers (AUS) HTC-Columbia |
| 2010 M Irizar (ESP) RadioShack |
The race gives riders the chance to enjoy some early spring sunshine back in Europe, as the 'Ruta Del Sol' as it is also known is traditionally played out under blue skies and the sunshine of the Andalucia region.
Following the season openers in places like Argentina, Dubai, Qatar and Mallorca, races are starting to come thick and fast now as riders prepare for the bigger stage races to come like Paris-Nice and the Classics which are just about a month off now.
There is some serious quality in the first 9 or 10 in the betting, starting with the Sky duo of Richie Porte and Bradley Wiggins, two-time winner and defending champion Alejandro Valverde, Bauke Mollema who podiumed last year, making his seasonal debut, Julian Arredondo who rode well in San Luis winning a stage and taking 4th in the GC. Add to that LL Sanchez (whose poor performance in the Tour Méditerranéen has been put down to a stomach bug), Daniel Navarro, Jacob Fuglsang, Tanel Kangert and Michele Scarponi and you can see there should be some good racing in the days ahead.
The Route and Stage Predictions
There is a possibility though that this race could be decided on the first day like the tours of Dubai and Qatar as the prologue could see reasonable gaps between the leading contenders, gaps that could well be defended right to the finish.
The prologue is 7.3km but it is technical and twisty and could well see gaps of 30" plus to riders finishing in places 5th onwards, so a good prologue is going to be so crucial. The rest of the race sees lots of climbing with two uphill finishes (Stages 1&2) a sprinters stage on stage 3 and then the queen stage on stage 4 to Fuengirola.
Click on each tab to read stage previews and recommendations.
Prologue
Prologue - Almeria to Almeria, 7.3km
Wednesday 19th February
It's a battle right from the off here in the prologue. With the possibility that the key favourites will be able to mark each other quite effectively over the hillier stages, this stage could make a big impact on how the rest of the race unfolds. Whether Sky have someone in the leaders jersey which they try to defend for the week by just controlling the pace and leading from the front on the climbs, or whether someone else like Valverde upsets the Sky boys and they have to go on the offensive from stage 1.
Sky have no fewer than 4 of the top 6 in the betting for the Prologue, with Bradley Wiggins the hot even money favourite to win, followed by Thomas at 7/2, Richie Porte at 7/1 and Eddie B-H at 18/1. Valverde sits in 3rd fav place at 11/2 with Tom Dumoulin at 15/1. The rest are all pretty big prices, but even if they were 3 or 4 times their prices I can't see the winner coming from outside the top 6 in the betting listed above.
The course is almost dead flat, with an elevation difference of only about 20m from the lowest to the highest levels. It is though quite a technical and tricky course and could cause some a few problems. There are 5 roundabouts to negotiate and several sharp turns so it will be quite a stop-start kind of test, with riders struggling to really get in to top speed very often.
The starting order can be found below the map, but interestingly, Wiggins goes 25th last with Porte 6th last and Valverde last to start. This will give Porte a target and a guide to aim for and could help him a little in trying to overthrow his more illustrious team-mate and hot favourite for the stage.
Hard to know how Wiggins will go on his first ride of the year, if this was mid-way through the season he would be 2/5 to win it, but the unknown element makes it a hard decision to back him even at what may well look like very generous odds once he wins by 15" tomorrow..
Porte took a while to get warmed up I felt in Australia but he certainly came to the boil with his blistering attack on stage 5 up Willunga Hill. He generally prefers longer TTs and as he hasn't raced since the TDU it's hard to again call with any sort of confidence what sort of ride he'll do. Valverde I feel might just not be good enough to win this and may have to settle for a 3rd place or worse. Geraint Thomas hasn't really done a decent Time Trial since 2012 and I think he is a poor price at just 7/2 to take this given his low key start to the season in Australia.
On the other hand, Tom Dumoulin rode some good short TTs last year and the Giant-Shimano rider might offer a touch of value at 20/1 to sneak in to the top 3 and upset some of the favourites. I don't really see anything else worth backing in the stage, Wiggins will probably win it but I don't want to take a chance at evens, but if you were compelled to back him, try throwing him in a double with Greipel to win in Oman, the double pays 11/4 with Bet365.
Recommendations:
Tom Dumoulin, 0.5pts each-way at 20/1 with BetVictor
1pt win double, Bradley Wiggins and Andre Greipel (Oman Stage), 11/4 with Bet365
Stage 1
Stage 1
Thursday 20th February
There was quite a shock for Team Sky in the Prologue of the Vuelta Andalucia as their highest placed rider was neither Wiggins, Porte or Thomas, but Vasil Kiryienka who finished in 4th place! He finished 13" behind a sensational ride by Alejandro Valverde who won the stage by just 7" from my 20/1 selection Tom Dumoulin of Team Giant-Shimano. The Sky quartet of Kiryienka, Thomas, Wiggins and Porte were sandwiched at either side by Movistar's Izagirre and Moreno, a prelude to the expected battle between the two squads in the next few days. I said 7/2 was a dreadful price for Thomas, I can't understand why he was so short for it, he finished back in 5th. It now looks like it is going to be very difficult to shift Valverde from the lead of 'his race' as he and his Movistar team can go on the defensive rather than having to try to make time up which would have been a lot harder.
Stage 2 sees the riders tackle a first category climb more or less from the flag drop as they climb for 25kms to the Puerta de Zaffaraya. As soon as they crest the summit of that though they start up the Cat 3 climb of the Alto Del Navazo, kicking off the stage as they mean to go on, as it is up and down all day long.
They first climb the Cat 3 Puerto de Tocon after 92km and two more Cat 2 climbs with 40kms to go. We may see the stage winning move come on the second of the two Cat 2 climbs, the Puerta de Valdepenas, as there is a very fast descent off it which could held good descenders build up a nice lead hitting the last uncategorised bump with about 8km to go and the final climb up to the finish at Jaén.
The final climb is about 2.5kms at an average gradient of around 7.5%. Strangely the KOM points are awarded 300m from the line, but if there is a small group coming to the finish together I don't think they'll be fighting for those points! It climbs all the way to the finish, in fact getting a little steeper right at the end so it will either require a solo victory or a strong climber/puncheur to sprint to victory from a select group.
Normally I would be loving the look of 33/1 for LL Sanchez for a stage like this, it should suit him perfectly. But I'm not convinced he will be there at the finish tomorrow and is still looking for some form. 14th in the Prologue, just 17" back isn't a bad ride at all but he did have that stomach bug just at the weekend which affected him on the Mont Faron stage and a long hard stage like this might find him out.
Valverde looks a strong favourite for the stage, but I think he is too short at 13/10 with Bet365 and definitely too short with BetVictor who are taking no chances at just 8/11! He will be protected all day and the Movistar riders will set the tempo on most of the climbs, and he does have that punchy, strong sprint that is needed to win at the finish. But he is best when the finishes aren't quite so steep so I am going to leave him tomorrow.
Richie Porte looks a likely candidate for that finish too given how he rode away from the field on Willunga Hill. He could attack at the base of the final ramp, or even on the descent of the Puerta de Valdepenas, as Sky may well have several cards to play in order to attack Valverde and Movistar. He is 7/1 with Bet365 (4/1 with BetVictor) and I think the 7/1 is worth a small bet each-way.
Finally, I think Julian Arredondo should have a big say in tomorrow's finale. After finishing way down in the prologue he will not be one of the marked men and can exploit the Movistar-Sky situation. The stage he won in the Tour de San Luis up to the finish in Mirador de Potrero de los Funes has a similar profile to this finish and he could well skip away as the big boys watch each other with 2.5km to go. A strong climber, he may well get 20-30" before they react and counter attack and if there is a series of catches and counter-attacks it could play in to his hands up the road and he could stay away. At 7/2 he is my main win bet. Nothing really appeals to me on the overall betting now though, maybe Porte each-way at 8/1, but I'm not having any more on him just now.
Recommendations:
1.5pts win on Julian Arredondo at 7/2 with BetVictor
0.5pts each-way on Richie Porte at 7/1 with Bet365
Stage 2
Stage 2
Friday 21st February
Alejandro Valverde strengthened his position as leader of the Ruta del Sol with a powerful performance to take stage 2 up the steep climb to Jaén - in the big ring! The 13/10 favourite bided his time on the wheels of Sky's Thomas and Porte and his teammate Izagirre and struck for home in the final few hundred metres. No one could match his finishing kick and he crossed the line clear of Bauke Mollema in 2nd an Davide Rebellin, the 43 year old, rolling back the years in 3rd. Richie Porte was close to Rebellin as they hit the line but unfortunately for our 7/1 each-way bet he just missed out, finishing 4th.
Valverde's victory means he now has a 17 second lead from Richie Porte, currently in the places for my overall each-way bet. Luis Leon Sanchez is also quietly coming in to things with a very good 5th place to move him in to 3rd overall.
Geraint Thomas and Peter Kennaugh did a sterling job for Porte today, so strong were they that they blew Wiggins out the back door and he finished more than four minutes down in 54th place. But he wasn't the only one they blew out the back door, there were only about 8 riders contested the finish as you can see in the video of the finish below.
Stage 2 sees more hills and more opportunity for Valverde to stamp his name all over this race. The route takes them on a 197.1km course from La Guardia de Jaen to the Santuario Virgen. de la Sierra de Cabra. It's a jagged profile to the stage but finishes with the tough 1st cat climb up to Santuario Virgen. de la Sierra de Cabra. The final climb is some 11kms long at an average of just 6%, but the final 3kms get tougher and the last kilometer sees a number of turns, the last hairpin sends then in to a 100m dash to the line at 10% gradient.
It looks made for Valverde again and following his big-ring demolition of the remnants of the peloton today I really can't see past him completing the hat-trick tomorrow. He is 11/10 with Bet365, but that is far more generous than the 4/7 with BetVictor, I was surprised to get some odds against to be honest, even if the odds are still very short.
Bauke Mollema was impressive today in that he had got blown out with a few kms to go when there was a split in front of him, but got back on strongly and powered to the front to try to challenge Valverde, who was just too strong. He should be involved in the finish again, but I'm not sure I want to back him at just 7/1 each-way. Porte the same at just 5/1 best price. Sky did everything they could for him today but he just didn't have it at the end, in fact at one point he was struggling to hold Thomas's wheel.
Arredondo had a shocker today coming in way down the field, I haven't seen any excuses for that ride but I'm not trusting him at only 8/1 tomorrow to recover. Instead, the other one I like the look of is David Rebellin, who at 42 years of age rode a fantastic finish today to take 3rd off Porte. He can sit in the shadows again tomorrow behind Sky, Movistar and LL Sanchez and sprint out for 2nd or 3rd spot behind Valverde. At 18/1 he is worth a small bet each way.
Recommendations:
Alejandro Valverde - 4pts win bet at 11/10 with Bet365
Davide Rebellin - 0.5pts e/w at 18/1 with Bet365
Stage 3
Stage 3
Saturday 22nd February
Short Preview tonight as I am taking a semi night off for my birthday.. !
Stage 3 is one for the sprinters finally after a Prologue and two days of climbing. The course loops in a circle west of Seville before finishing in the city. The last 3kms are pan flat as you can see below and the only danger is a roundabout just inside the last kilometre. There is a little lumpy bit in the middle to get over which contains two Cat 3 climbs, but there is only a small chance of it not ending in a bunch gallop.
So what sprinters are here that could win? Well the answer is, not a lot! The fact that Edvald Boasson Hagen is favourite for the stage shows the lack of sprinters at the race. He is indeed well capable of winning a sprint like this and he goes well early in the year too, but at 9/4 he doesn't offer a great deal of value. Mecgez could get close but tends to do better later in the year so he is not of interest to me either at 3/1.
Jens Debusschere has already got a 2nd place to his name after chasing the in-form Modolo home in the Trofeo Palma just two weeks ago. He too is pretty short at only 7/2 with Bet365 but a very big looking 12/1 with BetVictor so I had a point each-way on that as he is the one I would have most faith in. Gerard Ciolek can be very hit and miss so I couldn't trust him to get in the frame at 9/2. Jensdebus to beat Ciolek in a match bet also appeals.
Or what about Bauke Mollema at a massive 150/1 to jump off the front with a km to go like he did in the Vuelta for me last year at 140/1?! It could happen!
Recommendations:
Jens Debusschere - 1pt each-way at 12/1 with BetVictor
Bauke Mollema - 0.2pts each way at 150/1 with Bet365
Jens Debusschere to beat Gerard Ciolek in a match bet at 7/10 with Bet365
Stage 4
Stage 4 - Ubrique to Fuengirola, 160km
Sunday 23rd February
What an incredibly close finish to the stage in Seville today with Wanty's Roy Jans thinking he had won the stage only for it to be snatched from him in the photo finish by Gerard Ciolek in a blanket finish which saw Belkin's main hope for the day Hofland snatch 3rd. Jens Debusschere was in 6th just a bike length behind but never really looked like troubling the front 3 or 4.
Sky did their best to set up EBH with a very strong leadout but he was unable to deliver, finishing in 7th and proving what a weak looking favourite he was. MTN though were very impressive when taking control in the last kilometre and set up Ciolek well, and even though he didn't get going as quick as some of the others, he was flying where it mattered, right on the line. With 3rd favourite for the stage Mezgec abandoning with a stomach problem, it was up to Nik Arndt to try to sprint for Giant-Shimano, and he pulled off a respectable 4th place.
Stage 4 is a very hard stage to call, because even though it is likely to end in a sprint, it is a very lumpy tough day in the saddle before they get to the finish and there is a possibility that a break could go all the way to the finish. They start climbing almost immediately with the first category Puerto del Boyar starting after just 10kms. And it's quite a tough way to start the stage, with the 10.6km climb averaging nearly 7%.
It then descends for about 25kms before hitting a Cat 3 and Cat 2 climb before another 30km descent until they reach the uncategorised climb that could be the launchpad for final attempts to get away. The last climb is a sort of two-step climb which rises up then rolls along for about 20kms on a plateau then kicks up again for 2.8km at 5.3%. From there its a fast run in to the finish, where they have to negotiate a number of roundabouts and a sharp left turn some 700m from the finish.
This is a real conumdrum of a stage as it could be blown apart early on with the Cat 1 climb, an early break could go and depending on the quality of that break they could well stay away all day. Possible candidates for that break would be the likes of Kessiakoff at 100/1, Jens Voigt at 80/1 and Bart de Clercq at 150/1. They then have the next two categorised climbs with a long descent, so there is a possibility it could come back together (albeit with a possibly reduced peloton) as they hit those last two lumps before the finish. We are sure to see further attacks on the last of those, seeing as there are less than 10kms to go once over the top, with a very fast descent down to the finish.
Who are the candidates for a last ditch attempt to get away here? Luis Leon Sanchez should like that finish - it reminds me a little, on paper at least, of this stage (below) he won in my wife's home town of Aurillac in the 2008 TDF - a horrible, lump of a climb of the Cote de St Jean de Donne 9km from home followed by a very fast descent and run in to the finish.. I was there that day on the finish line more or less as it almost finished outside the monster-in-laws house. He was brilliant that day (jump to about 31mins in the vid to see the final action) and he could possibly try to pull a stroke like this again tomorrow. It will be very hard to get away as he could still win the overall as he is just 20" back, but at 18/1 with Bet365 I have had an interest as he could go all guns blazing at the finish tomorrow.. he is only 10/1 with BetVictor.
Others to possibly try a flyer on that last climb could be Fuglsang (80/1), Tiralongo (50/1), Gerdeman (33/1) or Javi Moreno (150/1) and there could even be a small group of 10 or 20 which includes Valverde, Porte and of course the likes of EBH and Ciolek who are well capable of staying in the main pack despite the hilly terrain. Or what about Geraint Thomas? Could he be left off the leash on the last stage with the victory for Porte probably out of the question now? He has been super strong on some of the climbs for Porte and he may be let have a go tomorrow for himself to test the legs and at least make Movistar work for the win.
If it does come down to a reduced bunch sprint then it is hard to see past Ciolek now he has that win under his belt from today. He is 7/1 with BetVictor which is acceptable, he is only 5/1 with Bet365. EBH just wasn't good enough today and is a very poor price at just 2/1 with BetVictor - he is 11/2 with Bet365 and I'm not even interested in that price. There are again a whole bunch of guys like Debusschere, Simon, Hofland etc who could be up there, but it is a really hard one to call as to what kind of finish we are even going to get tomorrow. So for now, I am happy with the following small stakes selections:
1pt each-way on Luis Leon Sanchez at 18/1 with Bet365
0.5pts each-way on Geraint Thomas at 33/1 with Bet365
0.5pts each-way on Gerard Ciolek at 7/1 with BetVictor
0.25pts each way on Kessiakoff at 100/1 with BetVictor
Overall Contenders and Favourites
This is going to be a short summation I'm afraid as I don't have much time - I hadn't planned on doing an Andalucia preview as I didn't think there would be prices available but there are so I have quickly knocked this one up tonight!
Alejandro Valverde is going for the hat-trick and will enjoy himself in the mountains, but I can't be backing him at 3/4 with BetVictor or even the 6/4 with Bet365, who make him co-favourite with Richie Porte. Skybet are a far better price on both Valverde and Porte though, especially if you fancy them for the win only as they are paying just 1/5 the odds for the first 3 rather than 1/4 the odds like the others if you did want to go each-way.
Skybet go 7/2 Valverde and 9/2 Porte and if it was really a match bet between the two I would have to side with Porte as I think he will do a better TT and will have the back-up of a very strong looking Sky team who have Thomas, EBH, Wiggins, Kennaugh and Kiryienka in their ranks. So even at 1/5 the odds at 9/2 that might be worth a small bet each-way - you almost get your stake back if he places but pays the equivalent of 7/2 if he wins. Apparently Porte was available at 14/1 or something silly like that with Skybet earlier in the day but that didn't last long as the shrewdies were all over it while I was sat in a meeting!
There are no time bonuses on offer in this race so any little bursts at the finish will not gain Valverde much extra time and I fully expect Porte to man-mark him effectively if in the leaders jersey.
It may well be that Wiggins takes the lead after the Prologue, but it wouldn't be overly surprising if he lost some time on some of the mountain stages, particularly on that summit finish on stage 3. I don't think Scarponi will top three it so I'm not touching him at 33/1 (definitely not 11/1 with BetVictor!) and same goes for Sanchez, a stomach bug can take a lot out of you (physically and metaphorically speaking!) so he doesn't appeal to me either at 40/1.
So who else then? Well Bauke Mollema interests me a little but I don't think he offers much each-way value at 7/1. Podiumed here last year behind Valverde and Van den Broeck, he tends to start his seasons well and can do a top 10 in the TT prologue I believe. Whether he can get close enough to then be able to move up to a podium in the hills is the doubt I have though.
Julian Arredondo might be interesting following his strong showing in the San Luis race, but he is only 7/1 with Bet365 (strangely BetVictor are not quoting him..) and I think that is way too short as he will struggle in the prologue. I would have needed about 20/1 each-way to get interested.
So not a lot really to go on, too many uncertainties at the outset to really make a call on the winner or even the podium. I will be updating this as the race goes on and I get to see how the Prologue and the first few hilly stages go, but for now I am just going to have a small each-way bet on Porte at 9/2
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Richie Porte at 9/2 with Skybet
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