Vuelta Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14 - Baga to Collada de la Gallina, 155.7km

 I didn't get to see today's stage, work got in the way, but Warren Barguil showed why he is one of the most highly rated of the up and coming riders in the peloton to steal the stage with guts, guil and power. He jumped away from the remains of the break of the day with 1km to go and held off a late surge from Mollema and Nocentini.

The stage was extremely fast from the start as clearly many had marked this one down as a possible breakaway stage and it took 60km before the break of the day was established, with 18 riders in it. This break worked well to build up a lead of over 3 minutes as they hit the Rat Penat, but with Scarponi driving at the front there were only 10 left going to the finish. Behind, the peloton's chase efforts weren't coming to much and the break held their advantage. Benat Intxausti, as I predicted he would, was one of the break away members, but there was to be no emotional win for him as he crashed out with 8km to go, he rolled in just in front of the peloton. Intxausti was with Xavier Tondo the day he died, today's stage started from Valls where Intxausti was from. The main GC riders all finished together, with Gilbert, Ulissi, Valverde and Moreno all in the top 5 of the peloton. 

Stage 14

A short preview today I'm afraid as I am out tonight! Stage 14 is sure to be a brutal, awesome spectacle with a day full of mountain climbing in Andorra. The stage starts off downhill for the first 40km but then hits the Especiale Category Port de Envalira which is 27km at an average gradient of 5.2% and maximum gradients of 15%. The last 5km are particularly hard. The descent off the Envalira is interrupted by two more hard 2nd Cat climbs, the Coll de Ordino and the Alto de La Comella, but these are only hors d'ouvres for the main event of the summit finish of the Collada de la Gallina. 

It may only be 7.2km long but it averages 8% and hits 15% in the middle, with the final kilometre a leg bursting 10% after a hard day in the saddle. The last time they came up this climb in 2012 Valverde, Contador and Rodriguez had a famous battle, with Valverde coming out on top. Contador is missing this year, but you could quite easily slot Nibali in to his place and we could have a very similar battle again this year. Either way, there could be some serious rearrangements going on to GC places and ambitions after tomorrow.  

Contenders and Favourites

It will be a fascinating stage to watch for a number of reasons. Will Horner ride away from them again like he did earlier in the week? Can Nibali turn on the power and ride away from his GC rivals? Can Pozzovivo turn in an incredible performance on the mountains like he did in his TT? Will Rodriguez start to strike back, or will this put the death nail in his GC chances? Can Roche pull off another heroic performance to hang in there and possibly cement a podium place? Lots of duels going on wherever you look at it - I haven't even mentioned Valverde who won last year, Pinot, Uran, Henao etc. It could be an amazing stage. 

The betting is also equally tight with Horner the 9/2 favourite, but Rodriguez is right behind him at 5/1 (it is only Paddy Power who have prices up at the time of writing though). Nibali (8/1), Valverde (11/1) and Sancez (14/1) are next so it's hard to pick value right now.

I do think it could be the day we see Rodriguez finally kick in to life though. The finish should suit him more than most and he may well hang on to the likes of Nibali and kick away from him at the end. It is a climb he knows well having finished 2nd here last year and also he uses it a lot for training. "We know it almost too well," said Dani Moreno, his Katusha teammate who also lives in the Pyrenean mini-state. He stretched his legs a little yesterday on the Rat Penat and he has to make up time soon. My main bet today is Rodrighe's at 5/1. 

I think Nibali will be more concerned about GC. Horner will not be let get away like he did before, they are awake to that now, and it may be the day also that he gets found out, there's a lot of climbing and judging by his TT he may be starting to fatigue a little. I'm thinking Horner might be a lay to place today, possibly Nibali, Valverde, Rodriguez and Pozzo could possibly finish in front of him. But it is risky given his ride on Monday! Hopefully Roche can hang on there again, it is a massive day for him. I think he will be hard pressed to stay with the top 3 or 4 again but if he can limit time losses as well as he did Monday he should guarantee a top 5 finish at least overall. A bad day could cost him, or any of the others dearly though.

I think Valverde will Top 3 it again like he did last year so I'll be having a bet on him to finish in the top 3 at 11/8 too.