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Published on Saturday, 08 September 2018 21:24

Vuelta Stage 15

Ribera de Arriba - Lagos de Covadonga

Sunday 9th Sept, 178.2kms 

As was the case last year, the Queen stage is on stage 15, on prime time Sunday afternoon TV.. and what a stage we could be in for today with the finish to the iconic Lagos de Cavadonga. 

This is one of the toughest stages of this year's Vuelta, with a total accumulated altitude gain of over 4,000m. It's a lot longer than last year's Queen stage, which was 50kms less, but it is just as tough with two trips over the Cat 1 Mirador del Fito and the finish on the Esp climb up to the Lakes of the Cavadonga. 

Two years ago Alberto Contador and Quintana distanced Chris Froome early on and hit the final climb to the Lagos de Cavadonga with a 2 min lead over the Sky man. Contador and Quintana kicked on, Fraile was with them but couldn't hang on and with 3.5kms to go on the steep bits Quintana attacked and went clear. 

It's a funny sort of finish with a fast descent with 2kms to go and a short little kick up to the line from once you get there. You need to make your move on the steep slopes with 7-8kms to go, or with 6kms or 4km, as in between there are flat parts that 

Stage 14 Review

Well we got a break, but no super group of 25-30 this time around. It did have our man Michael Woods up there, but it was a pretty shit small group and they never got more than about 3 1/2 mins lead as Cofidis and Movistar kept a tight leash on them. The main reason was that Kwiatkowski did actually get in the break after all, depsite he being only 5 mins down, so the peloton were not prepared to let them get too far ahead. 

In typical fashion, our man Woods crashed on the descent, but it wasn't as bad as Meintjes crash, he looked stunned and probably shouldn't have got back on his bike. De Gendt had a mechanical and got dropped, and soon Kwiat dropped the other three. But Bahrain Merida made a move on the descent, charging down to the start of the final climb and splitting the group in the process. 

The final climb was as brutal as we expected, with Steven Kruijswijk leading from the bottom of the climb, but the battle was raging between Movistar and Lopez, with Lopez absolutely cruising beside Quintana every time he tried to do something. Yates sat in behind watched and waited and pounced at exactly the right time.. Kruijswijk and Quintana (who was fading) were at the front, and Lopez was unable to get out until it was too late..

He surged after Yates eventually and finished 2nd.. Very, very annoying, he had the winning of this stage, he had the legs and the fastest finish, but showed tremendous inexperience and naievety to throw away the stage the way he did. Valverde is Valverde, he took a fine 3rd place, but one of the riders of the day for me was Thibaut Pinot finishing 4th on those very steep gradients, bodes well for him. Valverde takes more points for green though, hopefully he can secure that now in the next week. 

Kelderman was the loser, despite being with them with only about 1km to go, he lost a minute by the finish. Enric Mas and Rigo Uran were good too, not far off, but Ion Izagirre did well to recover and finish just 37" down, he looked to be fading badly in the last kilometre. Movistar made a big gain in the Team Classification, reducing Bahrain's lead by 7 mins to just 6'42" now and have to be strong favs to probably carry on in that vein and take over in the next week. 

The Route

A zig-zag route from west to east that takes them south-east first to take them over the Cat 3 Alto de Santo Emiliano, then they head north-east for the next 70kms, reaching the coast at Colunga, before starting on a loop that takes them over the Cat 1 Mirador del Fito (7.1kms at 7.7%) twice. They pass over it for the first time with 78kms to go and for a second time with 47kms to go, there shouldn't be too many left in the peloton the second time around.

They then go over a small uncategorised bump with 150kms gone (4.7kms at 4.3%, but with some really steep ramps) and head straight for the final climb to Lagos de Cavadonga. This is no less than the 20th time that they have climbed to the summit finish at the LDC, the first time being back in 1983, so it's pretty familiar to riders and fans alike by now.. 

Contenders and Favourites

So here we go again, who wins tomorrow then? I think it's going to be very close between being a break or a GC day to be honest, a bit like today.. the break will be kept close, this time by Movistar, Astana and M-S, possibly with the help of FDJ and EF Cannondale.. there are so many guys still in contention, their DSs will be keeping the pressure on them to go for the stage win and try to claw back time.

But who will want to chase tomorrow? Movistar were the most likely before we saw Quintana fading a bit today, but then again, Quintana won here two years ago so will they look to tee him up again? Or maybe given the downhill last kilometer before an uphill punch to the line, maybe Valverde will fancy it?

Yates was flying at the finish again today, will M-S help to keep the break in check to give him another shot at the win? And Astana - Lopez will be keen, and I'm sure the DS will be even keener to rectify the fuck-up from today. He should have won, he blew it, he won't be let off lightly by the DS I'd imagine so he'd 

Quintana looked good today, then he didn't.. Lopez looked good, but didn't finish the job. Yates looked cool, played it the smartest and won to take red. Kruijswijk will like tomorrow's gradients a bit more than today and Kelderman too.. He knew ahead of today that the finish wouldn't suit him.

Thibaut Pinot impressed me a lot today, he rode at his own pace and came back several times to eventually finish 4th, 2" ahead of Quintana. I think this climb will suit him a lot better too, and I wouldn't be surprised if he took off while the others looked at each other as they hit the downhill section and powers his way to the win. At 20/1, I think he's a bit of value for tomorrow. 

Otherwise, I think Lopez has to be fancied again.. maybe he was holding something back today knowing what was coming tomorrow and will go full gas tomorrow with the rest day the next day. He gets better as races go on and he looked very fresh and relaxed today.. He could well go with 6kms or so to go and maybe only the likes of Quintana will be able to go with him, and he'll win that battle at the finish, like he should have done today. 

But the break has a good chance of hanging on, if Movistar are a bit reluctant to waste energy with Quintana maybe not feeling 100%. The KOM competition is wide open now with Maté sick, de Gendt clawed his way to within just 10pts of Maté and there are two Cat 1s and a Cat 3 out on the road tomorrow that can give him the lead.. So expect him up there.. but he will have the likes of Majka, Mollema, De Marchi, Rolland and King also fighting to get in the break and to take the KOM points, any of them can still win it, there are loads of points still up for grabs.. 

And Michal Kwiatkowski is another to watch over the coming stages, he ended up losing time today after all his efforts, so he's now over 9 mins down and will be given a lot more freedom now than he was before. Maybe tomorrow might come a bit too soon for him, he put in a lot of effort today. 

Others I fancy to give a go are: Tiesj Benoot, I've mentioned him a few times, he might try to give it a go tomorrow; Gianluca Brambilla who finished very high up today in 16th place, but he now sits in 14th place overall.. he's clearly coming in to some form and starting to climb really well. He won stage 15 two years ago at the top of Formigal, when he outsprinted Nairo for the stage. He is just 5'32" overall though, so will he be let go in a break? The good thing with him is that he might give us a second chance of winning - he is climbing so well he might be able to stay close and attack late on when there's a bit of a lull between the favourites. 

Vincenzo Nibali could also fancy a good day up the road, he was working hard at the front today, he's stepping up his training for the World's (and Lombardia probably). He might get a chance to go up the road tomorrow, as I keep saying Bahrain will want to keep a grip on the Team Classification, they let it slip a little today, they'll be eager to get men up the road tomorrow.. Be it Nibali, Padun, Pernsteiner or Pellizotti.. Pernsteiner finished a brilliant 17th today, winning his matchbet with Bizkarra for us, maybe, just maybe it might finally be a day he gets up the road. 

Dimension Data will probably try to get a man or two up the road, Merhawi Kudus, Ben King, Ghebreigzabhier or Igor Anton could go, Kudus and Ghebreigzabhier are climbing the best of those. BMC are keen every day at the moment, Roche and Bookwalter today, maybe Porte finally, or De Marchi more likely tomorrow. Alexander Geniez is in good form as we saw, he'll be looking to get up the road again soon I believe. 

Michael Woods could go again, he crashed today but it's only scratches he says, he showed he still had the legs by finishing an impressive 19th at the finish. Maybe he'll try again. Sergio Pardilla rode ok today, he might fancy it, and now that Herrada has given back the jersey and Maté is sick, Cofidis might try to get other guys in the break like José Herrada.. Ilnur Zakarin might try again, it's not as hard as La Camperona, he might go better on these slightly easier gradients, he's highly motivated to win a stage. 

So loads of breakaway chances again, I've picked a few win bets, but I like Pinot's chances from the GC guys, and have to go on Lopez again, he'll win one of these days and we have to be on him I think. 

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Thibaut Pinot at 25/1 with WillHill

1pt win on MA Lopez at 6/1 with Will Hill 

0.3pts e/w on Gianluca Brambilla at 44/1 with Will Hill

0.3pts e/w on Tiejs Benoot at 66/1

0.2pts e/w on Sergio Pardilla at 80/1

Matchbets

Pernsteiner to beat Formolo and Gallopin to beat DDLC - 2pts at 1.42/1

Carapaz to beat Haig - 2pts at 5/6

Ion Izagirre to beat Aru - 2pts at 4/6

Yates to beat Valverde and Pinot to beat Uran - 2pts at 5/4