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Published on Saturday, 20 August 2016 21:44

Vuelta Stage 2

Ourense to Baiona

Sunday August 23rd, 160.8kms

Stage 2 is only 300m shorter than stage 2 of last year's race, nothing too difficult to break them in to the road stages. There is a Cat 3 bump around the half way point in the stage but it should end in a sprint finish.

Last year's stage could not have been more different though with the nasty uphill finish to Caminito del Rey, won in impressive fashion by my 200/1 pick Esteban Chaves, but will also be remembered for how Tom Dumoulin marked his intentions in the race with his superb second place, with Nico Roche followed home by his cousin Dan Martin in 3rd and 4th place. 

What an excellent start eh! Sky JUST did the business, when they crossed the line it looked like they were actually second by 0.4 of a second, but they were given it in the end and Pete Kennaugh took the first red jersey of the race.. It was a superd return from the stage, I took the 10pts from the each-way bet and actually closer to 30pts from the additional back and lay bet, as I was able to lay at evens and odds on in play.  I also laid BMC at 1.85 in play as they looked like they were having to wait for Atapuma so it was an extremely profitable day for me. 

Disappointing from Astana though, Lopez's dropped chain after 3kms probably cost them close to a minute, which was very annoying as they put in a big ride after that. Movistar almost made it, they are looking strong too. Etixx almost pulled off a surprise, I did say they might make the 18/1 look very big. Tinkoff and Contador were the big losers though, he finds himself 52" down already, but that may be a good thing, we can now probably back him at a better price when prices come out later. 

The Route

A flat opening 60kms are suddenly interrupted by the Cat 3 climb of the Alto de Fontefria. It totals almost 20kms in length for the whole length of it, but it's not too difficult at all, averaging only 3.4%. But it is quite steep at the bottom, averaging double digits for the first 2kms, before flattening out for around 5kms and rising again a bit more gently for the the last 10kms. It's the last 8.2kms which are the categorised part, averaging 3.3%.

This is followed by a 20km descent and two little lumps to get over before an 8km flat run in to the finish.  

Favourites and Contenders

This is an absolute nightmare to start the road stages with - a strong break can make it today, and Sky will be in no hurry to chase it down I think as I'm pretty sure they wouldn't mind losing the jersey for a while. Last year's Vuelta was a break-away rider's dream - eight stages were won by the break of the day. It could be the same this year so it could be wise to thread with caution on this first road stage. The break has a chance, it's not that long a stage at 160kms and the climb 60kms in to the stage can see the break gain good time if the peloton just rolls along up it. There are two little lumps near the finish, the first with 40kms to go and the second with 10kms to go, and both could be used as late attack launch points. 

The bookies have priced it up as being a likely finish for the sprinters here, not that there are a huge selection of sprinters here to pick from - and that makes it all the more difficult... Hard to know who has a good leadout, who is going well etc. Giant Alpecin have an ok leadout on paper, but they did a terrible time today to finish 3rd last.. Either they were saving themselves for tomorrow, as they are confident in Nikias Arndt or they really aren't going all that great. Either way, I can't be backing Arndt at 7/2, it's ridiculously short for a guy who has won only one race a year for the last three years. 

Nicola Bonifazio is also a risk at just 9/2, he too has just won one race this year, a weak stage of the Tour of Poland. He has come close on a number of other occassions though, like in the Criterium, but there's also the question as to whether they will be going for the stage with Felline or Bonfazio, as Felline might be in a better position to win it after the late climb with 10kms to go. Of the two of them, I'd rather be on Felline at 12/1.. 

Gianni Meersman though looks pretty solid at a far more appealing 8/1 with Corals and others.. Etixx looked very strong today and almost pulled it off, and with Terpstra, Serry, Velits, Stybar and Bouet they look to have a pretty strong team here to lead him out. Four top 3 placings in his last seven starts (and a 6th place) shows he's in great shape. He took three wins in 2015 and three in 2014 but is yet to raise his arms this year, so is due a win. 

Kristian Sbaragli, Magus Cort Neilsen and Jempy Drucker are all around 12/1 and all three would have a chance too. Sbaragli has come close on a number of occassions this year, but he has only managed one podium, with a 3rd place in a sprint in the Tour of Slovenia, behind Porsev and Selig, not exactly the cream of the crop. Cort Neilsen could be a dark horse here though, but there isn't any value in him at 12/1. His only win in the last two years was in his home Tour of Denmark this year, beating Hofland and Bennati in a three-way sprint.

Jempy Drucker passed us a number of times when out watching the Ride London Classic a few weeks back and I was amazed by his physique.. he is seriously well built, a real power-house. He decided to go on the long break of the day that day though instead of playing it smarter in his attempt to defend his title and came nowhere in the end. He did have three 2nd places in the Vuelta a Burgos just recently, beating Meersman on each occassion, so he has good legs, but I think 4th to 10th for him tomorrow. 

Tosh Van Der Sande, Jonas Van Genechten and JJ Rojas could all go well too but I think they will be scrapping for the minor placings.. Not a day for wild staking, let's keep what we made today and see how it goes.. An early break could take it, a late break could take it, a sprint could take it. But I'm going to take a punt on the power and experience of Etixx and Meersman, I think he could go close. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Gianni Meersman at 8/1 with Corals  

Matchbets:

Fabio Felline to beat Gerrans - 2pts at 8/11 with Bet365

Felline to beat Gerrans and Meersman to beat Van der Sande - 2pts on the double at 5/4 with Paddy Power