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Published on Tuesday, 25 August 2015 21:54

Vuelta Stage 5

Rota to Alcalá de Guadaira

Wed. 26th August, 167.3kms 

It was oh-so-close for Nicholas Roche today and his valiant effort almost brought him a sensational stage victory, just being collared with 100m to go. We almost got the 1-2 though with Sagan just being beaten by Valverde and Moreno sneaking past Roche on the line to land the each-way money. Can Sagan get back to the top step again tomorrow?

It was a very exciting finish to the stage with loads of action inside the last 5kms. Bilbao was brave and stayed dangling in front of the leaders, following a brave effort from Tosh Van Den Sande also. But Movistar, Katusha and Tinkoff-Saxo were always seemingly in control and keeping a solid, steady pace. Then suddenly Sanchez was gone, in an explosive attack we haven't seen the likes of in quite a while. Roche displayed again that he is in great shape and did a brilliant chase down and counter attack inside the last 500m as the road kicked up again.

He almost made it, but Valverde displayed once again how he is one of the best riders in the world in these sorts of situations, timing his chase down and sprint to perfection, outgunning Sagan in the run to the line. I said Sagan could be up there with Valverde and Moreno as the big dangers and they finished 1-2-3, just annoying that Valverde won it at great odds for him. It was a great result for the Valverde Green Jersey bid though, moving him to within 10pts of Sagan and back in to odds-on. One out of two in the match-bets so more or less flat on the day.  

The Route

We now start to head away from the southern opening section of the Vuelta and start to head inland away from the coast. But first they run along the coast for some 23kms to Sanlucar de Barrameda, then dives back south-east to Jerez de la Frontera before resuming their route northwards. The only thing to possibly cause them problems for the first 155kms will be the heat, otherwise it's probably going to be another incredibly boring stage for the first 4 hours or so. 

After 133kms they pass through Dos Hermanas and then on to Sevilla, where the intermediate sprint is located, just 18km from the finish. They then head south west for 12kms before finally turning north-west for the final run to the finish line. As they start the final run to the line they have to get over another climb similar to the previous stage finish, but it's not as hard, then they descend gently for just over 4kms before the uphill sprint for the last 800m.

As they come inside the last kilometre they cross over the river and then approach a medium sized roundabout which they pass on the right hand side. As they come out of it the road narrows and starts to climb gently uphill as they enter the Plaza Cruz Paralejo. Just around 100m later they enter a sharp left-hander which takes them on to the finishing straight which climbs gently all the way to the line. You can see the sharp bend and the uphill climb to the line in the picture below.

It's an uphill sprint that gets steeper the closer to the finish line they get, but it's not too difficult and we could see the likes of Degenkolb figthing out the sprint with Sagan and the like. 

Contenders and Favourites

It should make for a boring stage for the vast majority of it, and should end in a bunch sprint finish. The break will go, but it will be controlled by G-A, Cofidis, Orica and Tinkoff you'd think and I would expect the break to be reeled in before the intermediate sprint with 18kms to go. It should then be set up for a mass sprint up the hill.

John Degenkolb should be licking his lips at this finish, it looks a great opportunity for him to register his first win in this year's race. He let the side down on stage 2 by not being able to finish off the job done by his team-mates in the last few kilometres. They had kept their powder dry very well up until then, letting other teams do the work, as they often make the mistake of coming to the front too early and then blowing up too soon. Even still though, their last lead-out man, I think it was de Kort, faded a little sooner than Deggers probably would have liked and it forced him to take it up a little further out than was ideal, especially as it was in to a head-wind. 

They will have to time it better this time as this final straight, uphill will be a very tough sprint and he will need someone to pull him to about the 300m to go marker before he can take up the sprint. Coming through the 300m after the flamme rouge are going to be crucial with the roundabout, the drag up to the sharp left-hander and the bend itself - you're going to have to be in the front 10 probably rounding that bend to be in with a chance of winning. If G-A can round that bend with two men at least still in front of Degenkolb he has a superb chance of winning. If he is on his own, or behind say a Cofidis leadout, he could be in trouble. He won stage 5 last year, a stage with a very similar profile and an uphill sprint finish and I think he could well be the winner of stage 5 again in 2015.

It was not lost on Peter Sagan that Giant-Alpecin didn't do much work and then came to the front in the last few kilometres of stage 3, he made a comment to that effect in the post-race interviews. Tinkoff-Saxo had put in a lot of work all stage, so they deserved the victory in the end. Sagan looks ultra-relaxed, he has said that he has only come here to get some good training in ahead of Richmond, it's like he is riding with no pressure to get results. 

Now that he has finished 2nd again today in a very different sort of finish he is sure to be itching to reverse his 2nd place for 1st again. The uphill sprint will suit him very well but I'd be a bit worried that his sprint might be a bit blunted after what was a very hard finish to today's stage. He just couldn't get past Valverde but was clearly better than all the rest in the pull to the line. He looks a bit short to me at 15/8, definitely too short at 11/8.

The man that Degenkolb beat in 2014's stage 5 uphill sprint was Nacer Bouhanni and he got very upset with Degenkolb for almost putting him in the barriers in the last 100m. He shouldn't have tried to go up where no gap existed really and the commissaires rightyl threw out his objections. They have renewed rivalries plenty of times since then, but looking at their overall stats, Degenkolb firmly has the upper hand. In all races where they have met and they have both finished in the top 10, Degenkolb has beaten BouBou on a count of 18 to 10, but in their most recent meeting on Monday, it was BouBou who came out on top taking 2nd behind Sagan. 

I think that Bouhanni will be up there again at the finish of this one, that is, if he can avoid crashing again in that tricky run-in! I'm not sure he'll be able to out-gun Degenkolb though and may have to settle for a podium spot, he may have lost a little of his top speed due to his crashes this week. 

Anytime there's an uphill finish, Alejandro Valverde's name should be considered, he is a super-powerful uphill sprinter as we saw again today. I think though that this may not be hard enough for him and the quicker sprinters might be too fast for him. If that's the case, then his team-mates JJ Rojas and Giovanni Visconti could have a chance, but even at 150 and 200/1 I can't see them being involved.

A man who came very close on stage 3 and still flies under the radar a little bit is Jean-Pierre Drucker, he was 4th behind the Sagan, Bouhanni, Degenkolb battle on stage 3. He has been in superb form of late and has banged in some good results in sprints in the Eneco Tour amongst others. He is a Belgian Classics kind of guy so should like this uphill finish too. Don't be surprised to see that BMC kit hovering in about 6th place as they turn that bend, or maybe sitting behind Samu Sanchez who seems to be in great shape at the moment. He may not win it, but he could come very close at a big looking 33/1 with 365.

Max Richeze flew the flag for Lampre in stage 3's sprint finish, taking an impressive 5th place, his best result since a 6th place on a stage in the Giro in May. He looks over-priced at 100/1 with Corals, especially as he seemed to take a day off today. Danny Van Poppel went AWOL in stage 3 when we were expecting a good showing from him, he rolled in 15 minutes down with his brother Boy. He was dropped on the hill outside the finish. It should be a lot easier for him to get to the finish with the top sprinters this time, given the flatter profile, but I worry about the chaotic finish, the tight bend and the uphill sprint, it might all be a bit too much for him, it could be a finish for the more experienced and elder riders. 

Caleb Ewan was also dropped long before the finale on stage 3, he rolled home 4th last on the stage and again today he came home way off the pace in 164th place. That is a bit worrying that he is coming home so far back, yes, I know he's a sprinter and doesn't have to make any effort on stages like today, but he is well off the pace. I think he will find it hard going again tomorrow. 

Simon Gerrans at 50/1 looks big for a finish like this though, but I want to see him do something to show that he has got his race legs back before I go backing him. Vincent Reynes was 9th on St3 but I can't see him getting any closer here and Kris Boeckmans was so awful on st3 that I don't want to waste any more money on him today either. 

So it looks like it will be fought amongst the favourites again - Sagan is full of power and confidence at the moment and should love this technical finish, but I can't bring myself to back him at that price. I'm hoping it will be another win for Degenkolb on stage 5 of the Vuelta, but he will need to up his game from his sprint on stage 3 in order to win, but he looks like an each-way bet to nothing at 4/1 again. Bouhanni could come close, as could Valverde at a massive price of 80/1. There's not a lot appeals to me really in this stage. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on John Degenkolb at 4/1 with various

0.25pts each-way on Max Richeze at 100/1 with Corals 

Matchbets

Valverde to beat Moreno - 3pts at 4/6 with WillHill

Richeze to beat Drucker - 1pt at 2/1 with Bet365