Tour of Britain Preview and Stage Betting Tips

Martin, Quintana, Wiggins, Cavendish some of the stars of 2013 Tour of Britain

The Tour of Britain kicks off this Sunday in Scotland with a massive 209km stage to welcome the riders! And what a field of riders it is this year, probably the strongest field of riders to have ever started a Tour of Britain. 

It is a challenging and hilly route which heads through Wales, on to Dartmoor and on to the Surrey Hills where I will be out on the roads cheering them on! A full list of the starting riders for the 2013 Tour of Britain can be found here. Scroll down to get the stage previews every day.

The first stage from Peebles to Drumlanrig Castle takes in a couple of 3rd Category climbs and the 2nd Category climb up to Lime Kiln Edge, but with the climb coming with 90 miles still to go it will not cause too many problems and the stage should end in a sprint finish. Home fans will get their first opportunity to see Mark Cavendish and his new team mate Alessandro Pettachi take on Gerald Ciolek, Steele Van Hoff, Sacha Modolo, Elia Viviani, Jose Rojas and many other top class sprinters. But I can only see one winner tomorrow and that is Mark Cavendish. He is odds on across the board more or less, which is very short, but if you can get odds against on Betfair it might be worth taking. You have to be wary though of backing CAv odds on in any race though given the frequency with which he crashes or gets impeded in the opening stages of races. I would prefer to back Steele Van Hoff each way at 14/1 for example. 

The second stage in Cumbria looks like being a nasty one as they head along the coast towards Seaton and Wokington. The 186.6km route is dotted with a number of hard climbs, with a Cat 2, Cat 1 and Cat 2 climb coming within 40km in the middle of the race. The Cat 1 Honister Pass could well see the likes of Deignan (United Healthcare, soon to join Sky), Quintana (Movistar) and Martin (Garmin-Sharp) stretch their legs for the first time to see what form the other GC contenders are in. The last climb comes only about 35km from the finish, so if a good group gets away they could fight out the finish and shake up the GC quite a lot. 

Stage 3 looks like being one of the most important for the GC as it is a 16km Individual Time Trial in Knowsley over an almost dead flat course. Expect Wiggins, Dowsett and Bauer to battle it out to possibly go in to the gold jersey depending on how the previous 2 stages went. Dowsett won the last TT in the TOB in 2011 and won a stunning victory in the Giro D'Italia, beating Wiggins, so it should be hotly contested. 

Stage four to Llanberis sees the peloton set off from Stoke, where Marc De Maar won a stage last year. They head west into Wales, passing through Wrexham before the serious climbing starts. After three intermediate sprints the climbs start with Groes, Llansannan, Pey y Pas, the latter coming with only about 10km to go. We may well see a small group get away this stage to fight out the finish. And depending on how the TT went for the winner, they may be putting themselves in a good position to win the overall. 

Stage 5 is again in Wales, with more climbing to be done - in fact there are four categorised climbs on the way to Caerphilly. This includes having to ride up Caerphilly mountain twice in the last 20km! Again, this is another crucial stage for the overall, if you haven't bought your climbing legs to this year's TOB you can forget about the overall GC. 

Stage 6 is one that I am particularly looking forward to to see the battle unfold on the uphill finish to Haytor. The final 5km climb should see the light mountain goats like Quintana, Martin, Deignan and even Kristain House who won it last year battle it out for stage, and possibly GC glory. 

Stage 7 from Epsom to Guildford may be technically described as flat, but anyone who has ridden up Barhatch, Crocknorth or any of the other many hills dotted around the Surrey countryside will tell you, it is anything but flat! Having said that, a similar route last year saw Mark Cavendish brilliantly sprint up the cobbles in Guildford and who is to say he won't do it again this year. 

The final stage is a circuit around London, which will probably end in a bunch sprint too that Cav will surely have his sights on. 

Contenders and Favourites

I did not know where to start with the TOB contenders and favourites before it started. Yes, there was Bradley Wiggins, Nairo Quintana, Daniel Martin and many other superstars lining up, but their genuine ambitions and intentions were not entirely clear to me. Some are there because they are being made ride it, some are there because they are using it as a prep for the worlds, so it is hard to pick an overall winner from a race that has thrown up the likes of Lars Boom, Albasini, JTL, Lequatre, Feillu as winners in recent years.

The first stage didn't really tell us much other than Mark Cavendish is rusty, Gerard Ciolek is up for it and Bradley Wiggins is at least putting on a good show of pretending to be interested in the GC by taking a single, solitary bonus second in a bonus sprint. Tuesday's stage was brilliant to be fair with Dan Martin and Nairo Quintana lighting up the gloom up the fantastic climb of Honister Pass, and as Martin put it, at least having a go at Sky.

The finish was fantastic too, with rising Irish superstar Sam Bennett carrying on his brilliant form from August and nearly winning the stage, catching the late escapee Lofkvist, only to be passed by a surging Ciolek in the shadow of the post. Quintana was penalised 20" for drafting behind a car so he has probably done his GC chances too much harm now given the TT on Tuesday will probably also cost him time. Dan Martin is looking up for it too, looking to get away from the Sky mob. I still don't have a clue who will win it, but I have decided to lay Wiggins at 4/7, I think that is too short given the unpredictable nature of this race.

Tuesday - Stage 3 ITT - Knowlsey

Tuesday's Time Trial is going to be pretty important in deciding the outcome of the race but I'm sure it will be the decider of the overall GC winner, there's a lot of racing still to come and this race has a habit of throwing up surprises. Wiggins is of course favourite, being one of the best Time Triallist in the world, but is prohibitively short at 3/10 best price. Alex Dowsett, who beat him famously at 110/1 in the Giro Time Trial this year, is the only other rider in single figures, at 6/1 best price. Again, as we have seen before though, some dreadful service from the bookmakers with only Ladbrokes offering each-way betting, but they are not the best price for Dowsett as a result at 9/2.

There are a whole host of riders below Dowsett in the 20/1 and upward bracket but you are really only looking at them placing in the top three I think as I can't see past the top two winning it. There are some interesting candidates behind them though - Thomas Lofkvist had a warm up today for the TT by attacking with about 10km to go. He did an awesome job until he hit the steep slopes with about 500m to go, but it was pretty impressive up until then. Third in the Swedish national TT champs this year, if he can ride like that tomorrow he should be close enough to the top 5.. depends on what took out of him I guess. Tuesday's TT is almost pan flat though, so he can go full gas without worrying about any hills! Ian Stannard is another who will be able to use his extreme power to effect on this course and he is a very big 50/1 on home soil. He did do a lot of work today though and he may be needed to look after Wiggins for the rest of the week, so I will be steering clear. Jack Bauer is another interesting character as he is also very powerful against the clock, and he is available at a big looking 33/1, but none of the bookies offering that price are offering each way betting. 

Martin Elmiger is 66/1, but again the bookies at that price are not offering each-way. Strangely, Ladbrokes who are betting each-way do not have a price for Elmiger.. 2nd in the Swiss TT championships behind Cancellara, winner of the Tour du Limousine, he seems motivated judging by this quote:  "I am confident because in recent weeks I have done well in TTs. I am motivated to give my best to improve my GC position". He is having a good year and may well do a top 6, so maybe a top 3 bet might be worth a small bet.

Not a great stage to be betting on but Dowsett at 9/2 each-way, paying a quarter of the odds to place in the top 3 attracts as it looks like a bet to nothing as they say.. A high probability of a top 3 placing should give a small return, and if it happens he turns in a performance like he did in the Giro and Wiggins has an off-day, then he may even win it. 

With my thoughts on Elmiger and Stannard above, the match bet of Stannard Vs Elmiger should possibly go the way of Elmiger at 17/20. 

Jack Bauer should beat Julien Vermote at 3/5

Thomas Lofkvist should beat Wetterhall at 13/20

All with Bet365, a treble pays just over 11/4.