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- Published on Saturday, 28 July 2018 21:18
TDF 2018 Stage 21
Houilles to Paris
Sunday 29th July, 116kms
The British and Germans had dominated on the Champs Élysées in recent years, with Gert Steegmans, the Belgian, the last man to strike a blow for the rest of the world in 2008, that was until Dylan Groenewegen struck for us last year on the final day!
André Greipel was the 5/2 favourite to take his fourth win on the Champs Elysées last year, but he could only manage 2nd place behind a very powerful looking Groenewegen who landed the bets for us at 9/2. Second favourite Edvald Boasson Hagen took 3rd for Dimension Data, as he finished the Tour on a high.
We've had Groenewegen, Greipel, Greipel, Kittel, Kittel, Cavendish, Cavendish, Cavendish, Cavendish in that order working back from last year, with André Greipel landing the hat-trick in 2016 ahead of Sagan and Kristoff. With no Greipel, Kittel, Cavendish or Groenewegen we're going to have a new winner this year, but who will it be?
Stage 20 Review
A bizarre end to the stage today when Dumoulin came storming back to take the win, but briefly when he crossed the line the graphic flashed up to show that he had finished 2nd to Froome.. Cue in play carnage as layers started laying at all prices, 6/1, 7/1 15/1, even out to 850 for pennies!! Then it started to become clear that Dumoulin had been given the lead, but even as they suspended the market he was still 1.16 to back, it was totally crazy.
And the craziness didn't end there, as all of Froome, Dumoulin and Thomas all traded to odds on in play as the times bounced all over the place. Thomas was 12" clear at the final intermediate check and looked to be cruising to a victory, but incredibly, and very interestingly his price did not collapse as it should have done given the position he was in.. There were layers aplenty taking every pound the backers wanted to get on him. He stayed around 1.5-1.7 for a long time, with thousands traded..
It looks like Sky were trying to engineer a win for Froome, and the word had got out around the team, and they had spread it to a wider audience who were trying to take advantage of the situation, there can be few other explanations for the money that was laying Thomas when he was well clear. Only, they didn't reckon on Dumoulin storming through an incredible third sector of the course, to come form behind to win the stage and foil their plan..
Dumoulin was incredible and I was very very happy to see him win it, and very happy to see Roglic get turned over, I stuck to my guns with the prices as they were, I cannot understand why they were as they were, people were clearly getting carried away by Roglic. Dumoulin showed again why he is the boss at TTs, he's not the World Champion for no reason.
It's a shame Dan Martin couldn't beat Romain Bardet though or we'd have had a really good day, the 6/4 on Zakarin to beat SK was a particularly nice bet and the Kwiat double easily won too to land 8pts profit though, we'll take that after a shitty few days. Bardet's ride was pretty amazing, a huge turnaround from his poor TT this time last year. That's two days running though that Bardet has fucked us over with Martin bets.. I'm not his fan right now..
It was an amazing ride by Froome too it has to be said, to wrestle his podium place back off of Roglic, but it broke the Roglic backers' hearts as their each-way return was cruelly snatched away from them. And it also meant that the Froome to not win a stage bets at 8/11 landed, but boy was it close to being torpedoed at the last possible moment.
The Route
The usual procession in to Paris, a short run of just 116kms, 55kms of which are doing the laps around the Champs. They start up in Houilles this time, a short distance away from the City in the fashionable suburbs near Saint Germain en Laye (from where Paris St Germain originally hail, and still train) and after a little loop west of the city for 54kms, where we will no doubt get the obligatory champagne glass photo ops etc, they then head in to the city.
After 54kms they enter Paris, and pass the finish line for the first time after 61kms before proceeding to do nine laps of the 6.5kms circuit, before the final charge up the cobbles of the most famous finishing straight in cycling. All you need to know really is that you need to be in the first 10 coming in to that final chicane and right turn on to the finishing straight, but you don't necessarily have to be in the first three, you can still come from 4th or 5th place in the last 200m like Greipel and Kittel have done in the past. But kicking from the front like Groenewegen did last year is also a good move!
Route Map
Profile
Contenders and Favourites
The final stage, and most likely to be a final sprint.. unless a late attack can spoil the day. But that’s probably only about a 5% chance of happening, so let’s pick from the sprinters for tomorrow and see if we can land two winners in a row and end the race on a high.
Arnaud Demare is the 11/8 favourite with Betfair, 6/5 with Bet365, and considering how powerful his team were in the last sprint, and just how much faster he was than everyone else, he surely wins this. FDJ took control from a long way out in the last sprint to Pau and I expect them to do something similar here, they'll be in control for most of the last 5 or 6 laps I think. He will still have 3 or 4 in front of him in the last 3kms and should get dragged to the final straight in a great position to accelerate away again and win.
Peter Sagan would normally be his biggest rival, but he is crocked, I’ve no interest in even backing him to place, he might be outside the top 3 again. He barely got home on Saturday and still looks like he can't pedal properly or hold his right arm properly, a rough sprint on the cobbled finish of the Champs will probably undo him.
Alexander Kristoff has finished 5th, 3rd, 3rd, 2nd and 6th in the last five sprints on the Champs Elysees, and has finished 3rd, 2nd, 4th, 7th 5th and 4th in the sprints so far in this Tour, he is remarkably consistent. With only Demare to beat really you’d think, he probably will never get a better chance of a win on the Champs than this. He will need to get ahead of Demare coming out of the final bend though and just hope that when he kicks he has a few bike lengths on him and can hold him off.
Christophe Laporte came very close to beating Demare on the last sprint, and tried to claim he was pushed sideways by a drifting Demare, but really, he woudln’t have beaten Demare anyway, Demare won easing down. I’m not sure he will reverse places with him on Sunday, I don’t think he has the brute power to win on this finish. But what an amazing story it would be if Cofidis were to take their first stage win in 10 years on the Champs Elysees with Laporte, giving a big two fingers to Nacer Bouhanni in the process.
John Degenkolb just hasn’t been fast enough in this race so far in the pure sprints, and unless Jasper Stuyven can do a monster turn coming out of the final bend and pull him to the last 200m with a few lengths on the others, then he may not be fast enough to beat the others. He hasn’t had a great record on the Champs in the past though, he has finished closer to last than first most times, but has had a lot of bad luck like late punctures that has resulted in him missing out on being able to sprint.
Trek are highly motivated for this though I hear and they are very focused on delivering John with a chance. With this sprinting opposition he may never get a better chance to win another TDF stage, especially the one on the Champs. At 12 or 14/1 he offers some value at least, or if you can get 5/2 or so for him to finish in the first 3 then that's an ok bet to take I think.
Edvald Boasson Hagen finished 3rd in this stage last year, but he was riding far stronger then than he is now, I can’t see him repeating that result. Dimension Data are just too light and flaky to deliver him with power and he'll have to fight for himself and might run out of gas.
Magnus Cort was way out of every sprint we’ve had in this race, can’t see him popping up to surprise tomorrow either, he should have been closer than 20th in the last sprint in Pau to be considered a challenger here, he is probably tiring after a tough three weeks.
Max Richeze has been given his chance for QSF now they have no sprinter, and he wasn't too far off in the last sprint, finishing in 6th place, but he was a long way from winning. When he was QuickStep's sprinter on the Champs last year too he only finished 14th.. Sonny Colbrelli won’t like this finish and he hasn’t been fast enough either for me lately to be able to get up in the top 3 here.
And it’s really hard to see anyone else get involved really, maybe Nik Arndt as he did a good TT today, or possibly someone like Sep Vanmarcke, Nils Politt or Stefan Kung might try to win it from a late break.
Demare should win, Kristoff is no price really for an e/w bet, but he should be top 3 and the only one that offers a bit of value to me to maybe muscle in to the top 3 is our old friend Degenkolb.
Hope you've enjoyed the Tour and the previews, we had some good results along the way, and the e/w on Demare for Green at 20/1, Majka for KOM at 14/1 and Dumoulin for the win at 14/1 are all after landing, shame one of them didn't manage to take a win for us.
Recommendations:
3pts win on Arnaud Démare at 13/8 on Betfair
0.75pts e/w on John Degenkolb at 14/1 with Betfred
Match Bets
Pasqualon to beat De Buyst and EBH to beat Richeze - 2pts at 6/4
Degenkolb to beat Laporte - 1.5pts at 6/5
Lampaert to beat RJV Rensburg - 2pts at 4/6