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Published on Saturday, 23 June 2018 18:23

TDF 2018 Stage 1

Noir.-en-l'Île / Fntay-le-Comte

Saturday July 7th, 201km

The grand depart starts the 2018 Tour in the Vendee with a 200km run along the coast from Noirmoutier-en-l'Île to Fontenay-le-Comte. It should be a stage for the sprinters, but with coastal winds expected, we might see echelons!

After a Giro with just two world-class sprinters we have the opposite here with a whole plethora of the world's best sprinting talents ready to take each other on. Except of course Caleb Ewan, who has been shunned by Mitchelton-Scott in favour of a team that is going to be supporting Adam Yates in his GC bid.

Ewan admitted he was 'devastated' by the decision the day it was announced, and it looks like it might well be the act that seals his departure away from M-S and over to Lotto-Soudal, who are supposedly interested in signing him. 

But we do have Marcel Kittel, Dylan Groenewegen, Arnaud Démare, Alexander Kristoff, Peter Sagan, André Greipel, Fernando Gaviria, Michael Matthews, Sonny Colbrelli and John Degenkolb to name but a few of the powerhouses who will be fighting it out in the last kilometre here. It's a lot of sprinters, it's a lot of teams, and it's a nervous, packed peloton that will be whizzing through the closing stages here.. Let's hope they all stay upright and get through the first stage unscathed. 

The Route

Not a lot to say about it, a flat run for 201kms that rises to the grand height of 31m at its highest point. They start off on the beautiful Ile de Noirmoutier and head down the peninsula, but they're not going across the Passage Du Gois this year, which is only accessible at low tide, like they did in 1999. It was the scene of a large crash that day that saw many GC hopefuls lose enough time to put them out of contention on only the 2nd stage. 

They do spend 110kms of the route on the coast, and if the expected coastal winds whip up as they pass through Saint Giles Croix de Vie and Les Sables d'Olonne we could see carnage and we might see some sprinters disengaged from the main peloton.

Not long after the intermediate sprint at Le Tranche Sur Mer they start to head inland, and the last 66kms or so take them away from the coast and in a easterly direction towards the finish. With about 17kms to go they start to turn north and with 13kms to go they pass through Mailezais and head for the run to the line.

The last 2kms are completely flat and pretty straight, but with 750m to go they take a sharp right off of 8Rue du Colonel Dumont-Saint-Priest, then 150m later take a sharp left on to the finishing straight. It's not a very wide road for the sprint up the Rue de la Republique and it's ever-so-slightly uphill to the line near the Tourist centre.  

Contenders and Favourites

So, about 135kms along the Atlantic coast of the Vendée.. but guess what, those hoping for crosswinds coming in off the sea will be disappointed as it looks like it will be tailwinds for most of the day of between 5-8mph, the wind is forecast to be a north-westerly, blowing them at a high pace from the start town. As they turn inland though we might see some echelons form as it will be a cross-wind from their left.. But in all likelihood, we'll see a full on sprint in Fontenay Le Comte. 

This is going to be an eye-balls out, crazy 70kmph finish today.. There are so many sprinters at this race, compared to just two at the Giro, and I think and you’ll need your wits about you to be in the first 10 coming in to the last kilometre to have any chance of winning. I think there is almost zero chance we will see anything other than a bunch sprint and every team will be desperate for their man to win the stage, as they will take the yellow jersey and points jersey too.

Fernando Gaviria has been installed as the 9/4 favourite to take the opening stage, and that is partly down to the incredible team he has with him for the leadout in the last 3kms, and partly due to his explosive sprint finished once released..

QuickStep Floors will  have Bob Jungels, Julian Alaphilippe and Max Richeze leading the way in a very strong leadout train, and Gaviria has the speed to finish off the job. He’s had seven wins this season, but let's face it, they were all in pretty low quality events, four of those wins were in Argentina and Colombia. On paper he was up against better opposition in California, but Kittel and Kristoff were not in any kind of sprinting shape at that race, and as we saw with M-S's decision to drop him based on form, Ewan wasn't exactly at the top of his game either.  

His form is questionable to me to be the 9/4 favourite in a crazy opening stage like this, he might find himself boxed in or cut off as sometimes happens with him. He was unable to get his nose in front in the Tour de Suisse, finishing 2nd behind Démare, Sagan and Colbrelli on three stages, not a great sign that he couldn't beat Colbrelli.. 

Marcel Kittel has been the best sprinter in the world for the last three or four years, and took home five stage wins last year, including the very first road stage, he was simply unstoppable, until the mountains broke him and he didn't make it to the sprint in Paris. He hasn’t been in great form this year at all with just two wins to his name all season, but we know how he trains to peak for the Tour.

His leadout wouldn’t be the best at all, they’ve got it wrong a lot in the past, but he has Rick Zabel, Nils Pollitt and Tony Martin to drag him in to position. He proved last year though that he doesn’t need a leadout, as long as he is near the first ten coming in to the last 300m, his power will take him clear, he just explodes past riders in the last 100m.. 4/1 might look like an amazing price for him come Saturday evening, as long as he doesn't leave that burst too late and ends up an unlucky loser.

Dylan Groenewegen is in my mind probably the fastest sprinter in the peloton right now and could well be Gaviria's biggest danger. The Dutchman has been in amazing form this year and has won nine times, the most wins of any sprinter here at the Tour, only Viviani has taken more victories this season. He took a while to get going in this race last year, I didn't fancy him at all at the start of the race, but he smashed the final stage on the Champs Élysées to take home a victory and land the bets for us.

He has a decent team here with him, with a superb leadout man in Timo Roosen, backed up by Paul Martens and Primoz Roglic, he has a big chance I think of starting this race with a stage win, the uphill finish will suit him more than most. 

Arnaud Démare took a fine stage win in Vittel last year, the day Sagan put Cavendish in the barriers, and he has been in good form this year too, winning a stage in the Tour de Suisse just a few weeks ago, beating Gaviria. He also won that slow-motion uphill sprint in the first stage of Paris Nice this year, maybe he could do with the finish being a little bit tougher? He's not got a great leadout here, but Vichot and Ludviggson will be a great help to pull him in to the right place with 1km to go. 

Mark Cavendish looks an insanely big price at 14/1, for the man who has won more Tour de France stages than anyone else here. His form isn’t great this year and he’s had a lot of misfortune and crashes, but he is a class act and he will have his backers at a very big price.   

Andre Greipel has five wins to his name this season and has amassed 11 stages in the Tour de France over the years, last year was the first time in his career he hasn't won a stage in a Tour he's entered. His wins came in the TDU early in the season, the 4 days of Dunkirk (with practically no opposition) and then again against almost no opposition in the Balois Belgium Tour.

He has a superb leadout here with him though, Marcel Sieberg is one of the best in the business and Thomas de Gendt, Jasper de Buyst, Jelle Vanendert and Thomas Marczynski will also be powering him in to the last 3kms, they are the team, along with Quickstep who will probably dominate the road in the closing kilometres.

Peter Sagan will have a tremendously powerful squad of rouleurs to look after him, but we know that Sagan doesn't need a leadout, he just surfs on the wheels of other trains and uses his immense bike handling skills and power to get involved in the finish. Five wins this season, including Paris-Roubaix and Gent Wevelgem, you can be sure that he'll be in the mix. 

Alexander Kristoff, Sonny Colbrelli, Michael Matthews, John Degenkolb - all world class sprinters who have won races at the highest level, expect them to be contesting the win too, but they might have to settle for 5th to 10th. And then you have Christophe Laporte sprinting for Cofidis in place of Nacer Bouhanni who has been left out of the team, Magnus Cort Neilsen, Edvald Boasson Hagen and Timothy Dupont who will be close too. 

I think this stage has Dylan Groenewegen’s name written all over it though, the Dutchman has looked the fastest sprinter in the world this year and comes here full of confidence and with an expert leadout man that will get him in the first 5 coming in to the last 500m, and his speed to finish the job. The 11/10 for Marcel Kittel to finish in the first 3 is too tempting also, so I’m backing that too, he is very likely to be in the first three I think. 

Update: 22:07, 06/07 - Skybet have introduced an interesting market for the first time I think - a 'to finish in the top 10 of the stage market, and of course most of the favourites are really short odds.. But one that interests me is Christian Laporte at 8/11.. He is probably good enough to get in the top 10 here and is the sole sprinter in the race for Cofidis with no Bouhanini there. He's worth a small bet. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Dylan Groenewegen at 5/2 with William Hill

1.5pts on Marcel Kittel to finish in the top 3 at 11/10 with Betway (take the 5/4 with Skybet if you haven't backed it yet)

2pts on Christophe Laporte to finish in the top 10 with Skybet at 8/11

Matchbets

Kittel to beat Cavendish - 2pts at 5/6

Greipel to beat Kristoff and Laporte to beat Cort Neilsen - 2pts at 11/8

Démare to beat Sagan - 2pts at 11/10