Three days of de Panne - Preview

Stage 2

Stage 2 - Zottegem to Koksijde, 206km

Sagan ripped it apart today with 10 km to go but the stage ended bizarrely as Sagan 'tried' to let his team mate Oscar Gatto win, didn't pull those brakes hard enough and pipped him on the line.  Huge disappointment for Gatto, as well as for his backers today who were robbed of a superb 66/1 winner.

It's all still to play for but Terpstra has hardened in to 1/4 with a bunch of TT men just behind him in the betting. Démare was unlucky for us today, he clearly had good legs and wanted the stage as he chased Sagan with Durbridge. They got to within 4" of catching them but couldn't make the catch and eventually finished 12th, 11" down.

Stage 3 takes them back towards the coast in a mostly flat stage that looks destined for a sprint finish.  I say mostly flat stage but they do have the small matter of the little cluster of Hellingen with around 110kms gone. In the space of 10km they go over a bunch of climbs that we saw just last week in the Gent Wevelgem such as the Monteberg and the Kemmelberg. 

The difference with this race though is that there are still 100kms or so to go so it will regroup and come to the finishing circuit in Koksijde together for a sprint you'd have to think. They do three laps of the circuit of 11.2kms.

To me this has to be between Kittel and Démare.  Kittel looked really good at times but just as I suspected he was found out by the hills near the finish. This is much more like his day though.  He was disappointed with the way it went today as he was feeling very strong he said..

 "My legs are good, and for us the real sprint stages are still to come. Tomorrow is flat and we will look to go for a bunch finish there.”

Démare was very unlucky today, watching the highlights tonight it was incredible how close he came to latching on to Sagan's group but OPQS were just too strong for them with three strong men pushing at the front. He showed though what great form he is in and should be right at the front again.

It could come down to who has the strongest team to get them to the right spot in the last 200m. For me, this is Giant Shimano - I think they will get it right for Kittel, they looked to be at the front a lot towards the finish today before Sagan exploded it.

The bookies see it the same way though as he is only even money (1/1) and I normally hate backing at those short odds but I've had a decent bet on him at that price with BetVictor. He is 10/11 with Bet365.  

Démare is best priced 9/2 with Bet365 and I think that's a decent enough price if you want to take on Kittel, he should be in the first three. Sacha Modolo at 14/1 could be a decent price to get on the podium too. I think Sagan had his fun today and will be looking after himself for Sunday, last thing he wants is to get caught up in a crash..

Recommendations:

4pts win on Marcel Kittel at evens with BetVictor

Match bet accumulator - 2pts on Kittel to beat Guardini, Démare to beat Kristoff, Terpstra to beat de Vreese - pays 9/4 with Bet365

 

Stage 3A

Stage 3A - de Panne to de Panne, 108kms

The third day of the three days of de Panne is split in to two stages. A short 108km stage race in the morning and a 14.3km time trial in the afternoon. The road stage spends quite a bit of time near the coast as they do a loop out and back from de Panne. The coastal winds could play havoc with the peloton as it is sure to be very fast as it's the non - TTers last chance of glory. 

It is mostly flat but has a little lump with about 40kms gone and another with about 10kms to go. What might shake things up a little though with regards to the potential sprint finish is that the last 300m are cobbled and uphill. 

This is a real power man's sprint and indeed one suited perfectly to someone like Alexander Kristoff. And a quick look at the results for the last two years indeed shows that Kristoff has taken two in a row and is searching for a hat-trick. He came close today but got on the podium and I think he is a cracking each-way bet at 10/1 each-way with Sky Bet. 

Kittel is as short as 1/1 for the stage and that is very short given the uphill finish. He let me down today, positioning himself badly and coming in in a lowly 8th place. Thankfully my match bets treble won to put me ahead on the day.

Modolo is clearly in great form and Lampre are looking strong but he may find one or two too good for him tomorrow. Démare should like this finish too but at best price 9/2 I would rather be on Kristoff. Actually since I wrote this it emerged that Démare is in fact not starting tomorrow's stage but Kristoff is and has said he is going to "try to keep up the tradition of winning stage 3" so I have doubled my stake on Kristoff at what now looks a massive 10/1, he should be closer to 7/2 I think.

Match bets - I had to take the 8/11 on the 'Field' vs Kittel with Bet365, I think 8/11 is fair as I think the likes of Kristoff, Démare and Modolo can beat him on this finish. We also have a breakaway or shock winner on our side too.

Recommendations:

2pts each-way on Alexander Kristoff at 10/1 with Sky bet

2pts on 'The Field' to beat Kittel

2pts on a match bet acca that pays 9/2 - Guardini to beat Chicchi, Terpstra to beat Van Keirsbulck, Colbrelli to beat Coledan, Kristoff to beat Modolo

 

Stage 3B

Stage 3B - de Panne Time Trial, 14.3kms

A short preview for stage 3B, all my focus (and a lot of my bank!) Is riding on stage 3A in the morning! It's the same time trial they have used before except 450m shorter than last year. Nikki Terpstra is a short priced favourite and you can see why as he has been in superb form. I worry though that the week has taken a lot out of him as he has been very aggressive and stage 2's break with Gatto and Van Keirsbulck was a lot of effort for nothing. 

I'll maybe have a bet depending on how the morning went but at the moment if I was to pick I would go with Durbridge, Hepburn, Terpstra and Le Bon in that order.