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Published on Tuesday, 19 July 2016 13:02

TDF Stage 17

Berne to Finhaut-Emosson  

Wed July 20nd, 184kms 

They come back after the second rest day and face quite a nasty stage, spent entirely in Switzerland. It starts in Berne where they had spent the rest day and the stage finishes with two very tough climbs of the Col de la Forclaz and the final ascension to Finhaut Emosson. 

Almost nailed it today... Almost.. It should have been a 20pt profit day, the one we were waiting for, but Alexander Kristoff pulled off a 'Junior mistake' as he put it himself and didn't know where the finish line was, lunging after he had crossed the line. So, so close again, like Coquard beaten by Kittel on stage 4 in a photo finish, can't believe we were done in a photo again!

But the each-way covered us at least, and hopefully some of you took the advice that 'Sagan will probably win' and backed him too. I called the stage pretty much spot on, it became a Classics kind of finish with the best riders of the spring races battling it out. Cav made it there but was spent and didn't contest the sprint, and he was the only 'pure sprinter' to make it to the finish. Sagan, Kristoff, Degenkolb, Matthews, Cancellara and Vanmarcke in the first six - the only interloper was Sonder Holst Enger who finished a magnificent 3rd at 200/1 to cap off a great performance by IAM Cycling in the closing kilometres. 

The good news was we hit a clean-sweep on the matchbets, with Degenkolb scraping in by one place over Matthews but well clear of Coquard at a fantastic 7/4 - should have gone bigger on that... The treble landed at 9/4 and the end result was a 12pt profit, we'll take that. 

This is going to be a very interesting stage - I wouldn't be surprised to see a massive battle for the first 50kms or so to try to get in the break of the day, there will be plenty of guys who will have an interest in getting in the break, having spent the whole of the rest day thinking about it and planning it. Also, there will be some who didn't have to do anything in the TT, nor in the sprint finish of the previous two stages, so will effectively have been taking it easy for the last three days and will be full of energy.

We could see some very strong 'Baroudeurs' attack early and look to hold off the GC men over the final two big climbs, they should build up a big lead over the first two climbs and the flat section leading to the Forclaz. Or it could be that the likes of Sky and Movistar look to control it early with the intention of reeling in the break on the last two climbs to set up a GC battle for the bonus seconds.

The stage is similar to a key stage in the 2014 Critérium du Dauphiné won by Astana's Liuewe Westra, who came out of nowhere to catch the two exhausted Katusha boys Silin and Trofimov in the last 600m (above) for a stunning win, but it was what went on behind him which was significant for this stage. Alberto Contador attacked with 1800m to go, just as they caught Hesjedal who had been in the break of the day..

In an explosive out-of-the-saddle attack he left Froome floundering, with Richie Porte trying vainly to pull Froome after Contador. Porte dragged him to the 1km to go flag and Froome took over, his acceleration saw to Nibali, but Talansky and Hesjedal stayed close, and in fact as Froome died in the last 500m both Talansky and Hesjedal came back to him and passed him. (right)

Next in was Nibali, but just behind him was Romain Bardet who finished strongly, then Sebastien Reichenbach with Wilko Kelderman 40" back. If it's anything like that stage finish in the Dauphiné it will be a super finish to the stage. The riders were all exhausted at the end of this stage, most had to be supported by helpers after crossing the finish line, they had left it all on the road. 

It's just a shame that Contador isn't in the race any more as his attacking spirit is badly missed in this race. At least he put it up to Froome that day and made him suffer, can anyone do the same on Wednesday?

The Route

After leaving Berne, the first 55kms are relatively flat, if rising gently all the while. Shortly after Boltingen they start on the Côte de Saanenmoser, a Cat 3 gentle climb that kicks things off. 6.6kms at 4.8% isn't too difficult and it's likely that the peloton will ride up it at a pretty steady pace. A little descent, a run along the plateau past Rougemont and they start the climb of the Col des Mosses, another Cat 3 climb which is 6.4kms at 4.4%. 

The descent off the Mosses takes them 18kms down in to the valley and the town of Aigle, where the UCI have their headquarters, and 27kms later they pass the intermediate sprint point at Martigny. Only a few kilometres later and they are on to the foot of the penultimate climb, the Cat 1 Col de Forclaz. This is twice as long as the preceeding climbs at 13kms in length, and also steeper at 7.9% average, but it's a very steady 7.9% with barely a change in the gradient all the way up. 

A very fast and twisty descent takes them to the foot of the final climb to Finhaut Emosson. This is a very hard finish to the stage, 10.4kms at 8.4%, but the lower 4kms at just under 7% and it gets steeper and harder as it approaches the top, with the last 3kms averaging over 10% and the last 400m averaging 12.3%, a very hard finish to the stage as you could see in the video above, Froome was out on his feet as he crossed the line. 

Contenders and Favourites

The break will go, but I honestly don't think the break has a great chance of staying away today. Today looks like a day where the other GC men really need to go at Froome, and as a result, this could be an very fast stage from start to finish. The break will need to be extremely strong to survive over the last 30kms, they are pretty brutal and I expect the pace to be really fast in the peloton. Froome's rivals are running out of time to challenge him and this double ascension to the finish is a perfect opportunity for them to test him and Sky. They will know that he has struggled on this climb before so they really should try to put him under a lot of pressure.

If they are able to, Astana, BMC and Movistar should all try to put him under pressure. BMC and Movistar have the most to gain and the most to throw at Sky too - Valverde is high on the GC and should attack to stretch the Skybots. Tejay has slipped below Porte in the GC and it looks like Porte is by far their best shot at the podium, so Tejay needs to attack. Astana have Rosa, Fuglsang, Kangert and LL Sanchez who should still be in the peloton when they hit the Forclaz, they should be able to set a good pace, and one of them should attack or maybe even Aru could try something from this far out,

If Valverde, Tejay or even Aru attack on the Forcloz we could see Sky put under real pressure and they could lose some Skybots.. Either that or a couple of guys protecting top tens in the GC could go after them and form a strong group. If Valverde can get 2 or 3 strong guys with him, with maybe 1 or 2 teammates up the road to help them, then Sky will have to respond.. They can't let the likes of Valverde, Bardet or Aru back in to the race with with three tough stages to come. I think they'll need to try something on the Forclaz to try to isolate Froome - Poels, Henao and co. have been just incredible so far, but they have shown signs of vulnerability, they just need to be squeezed hard I think. Put them under pressure on the Forclaz, isolate Froome, then attack him again on the final climb. 

Easier said than done of course, the Sky bots just grind and grind and grind you in to submission. The power they are putting out as domestiques is incredible, Poels riding at 6 w/kg at the front of the group for kilometre after kilometre. It totally strangles the opposition, they are all on the limit just hanging on to the wheels, and find it hard to even try to attack them. Valverde, Bardet and Aru's attacks on the Colombier showed that, they got about 100m up the road and that was about it.. Poels just kept the pressure on, kept riding like a metronome and pretty quickly they were brought to heel. It has made for incredibly boring racing, but can they keep that up through three days in the Alps? 

This sort of finish you'd think would be perfect for Nairo Quintana though. That is, the Quintana we would like to see and the Quintana we think he is, and not the limp, frail looking Quintana we have seen so far, that was left behind on Ventoux by Froome's surges. Maybe he is a little under the weather. Maybe he has yet to hit top gear. Maybe he is gambling it all on the Alps, but if he is, he has left himself a literal and metaphorical mountain to climb. Does he go early? Does he try to strip Froome of all his support early on on the Forclaz and then go again on the climb to the finish? He really needs to show something I think, or it's all over for him. 6/1 for the first four places with Corals might be ok, there might be one or two solo riders out front, or maybe Froome and he could chase them home. 

Chris Froome of course could ride away from all of these guys, as he looks like he could do whenever he wants - he's even taking the piss out of them on climbs now, faking attacks to see their reactions. He is just 5/2 for the stage, but honestly, I can't be backing him at that price given how he performed on this climb last time around. Sky have still got all nine riders left though which will be a huge help to him, but it's unlikely they will be put to work much until the Forclaz. Stannard and Rowe may tow them along for a while, but it could be up to Trek, Movistar, BMC and Astana to do the driving for most of the stage. 

A hard push on the Forclaz could strip Sky down to 3 or 4 riders though and if the attacks come hard with 6-7kms to go on the 9% slopes then they might lose the likes of Poels and Thomas too. But who attacks?

Richie Porte has to try to get time back, there is a podium spot there for the taking if he can carry on attacking and pushing like he did on Ventoux. He looks like the only one, along with Mollema who is capable of attacking and getting away from Froome. The way he was going on Ventoux, I think he is capable of putting Froome under pressure on this climb, he is similar to Contador in size and attacking ability when at the top of his game, and I think he is absolutely at the top of his game, he looks in fantastic shape.

He was straight on Froome's wheel on Ventoux and looked very comfortable. He was powering up the hill when he hit the motorbike, but we'll never know if he'd have stretched away from Froome as he smashed in to it. Let's just hope he didn't injure himself in doing it, but it sounds like he is alright. The 8/1 looks ok to me, I think he could top 3 it here. 

Bauke Mollema of course could be right in the mix too and we could finally get to see if he really is capable of delivering on the promise that so many of us are hoping on.. We'd all like to see the race become a contest for the last few days and Mollema is obviously in prime spot to do so, being the closest to Froome. It's going to be a big ask to pull back nearly two minutes, but a 30" gap and a 10" bonus would be a good start. I have a feeling though that he could be 3rd or 4th out of the top guys though, so the 12/1 with Coral sounds alright, but I'm just not convinced.. I have the 20/1 (and 14/1 recommended to you guys) without Froome and Porte market, that's looking pretty good right now, hopefully he can crystalise that position at worst tomorrow. 

Adam Yates was struggling a little on the Colombiers, hanging in at the back of the leading group, but he hung in there. He also wasn't able to go with the front group on the Ventoux, but did lead the Aru group home and was going pretty good at the finish. I keep thinking he's going to crack soon and this could be the climb to do it. I hope he doesn't, it would be great to see him win it, but I think he is due a bad day, and a bad day on this finish could lose a lot of time - he lost 1'20" to Froome in the Dauphiné. Louis Meintjes, one of his key rivals for the jersey is also right on his limit I think and we could see him struggle too, but they haven't cracked so far and are still in the hunt for good top 10 placings.

Romain Bardet is possibly one of the few other riders I think who could be in the mix here, he is riding well too and at 40/1 he could be worth a shot - Froome, Porte and Mollema might be too busy looking at each other and he might slip away. He was 9th that day in the Criterium stage in 2014, just 23" behind Froome. Also, he may jump on the wheels of the likes of Porte, should he attack, and could be dragged to the finish where he'd have a chance in a sprint finish against a lot of these guys. 

We could have a similar situation to the last stage to Culoz though as well here where a very strong break of riders go away and may go on to contest the finish. They do climb more or less for 40kms from the 30km mark and that should see a lot of strong guys try to make the break - if so, we should see the stronger guys who have been showing themselves lately.

Ilnur Zakarin was desperately unlucky for us on stage 15, he was right in the mix and should maybe have been fighting out the finish for a place for us at least, but he lost a contact and couldn't see where he was going.. an incredible way to lose a bet. He is still looking for that victory for the new baby so maybe this could be the stage.. The 22/1 with Corals paying 4 places is worth taking. 

Sebastien Reichenbach was 10th in the stage in the Criterium in 2014 when just 25 years old, he's two years older now and seems to be riding really well. He was on the attack with Zakarin and Majka on the stage to Culoz, but the guy just can't descend! He lost all chance of the stage win as he kept getting dropped on the tricky descent from the Grand Colombier. He was climbing well though and came home in 4th place with Vuillermoz. On home soil, likely to try to get in the break again, and this time the descent off the Forclaz isn't as tricky so he might do better. Maybe he needs to attack near the top from the break to give himself a bit of a headstart on the descent.. At 50/1 he has to be considered, especially with the books paying 4 or 5 places, only Corals at the moment, but more might go that way tonight. 

Julian Alaphilippe has been on the attack for the last two stages, seems to be full of energy.. will he try again after the rest day? It's very likely he will be in the break, but you'd think if there's strong climbers in the break too he'd suffer a little towards the end of the stage, it's a brutal final climb. Rui Costa always goes well in Switzerland - three-time winner of the Tour of Switzerland, five-time stage winner, he looked to be stretching his legs in the final stages of the stage to Bern, attacking on his own, I think he hoped for some guys to go with him, but just kept going anyway. He will probably get in the break of the day, and the 33/1 on him is tempting, but I think he might suffer on the last climb if there are stronger climbers with him. 

Jarlinson Pantano, Rafal Majka, Thomas de Gendt, Daniel Navarro, Serge Pauwels - all could go on the attack again, they seem up for it at the moment, and Majka will look to cement his lead in the KOM competition.. He could push hard on the Forclaz to take the Cat 1 points if it's looking unlikely they'll fight out the finish, so he is probably a back-to-lay bet on Betfair as he should get in the break, will drop to 3 or 4/1 and you should lay back your stake then for a free bet on him.  

It's also likely we will see Astana, BMC, Movistar and Sky try to get someone in the break, to help out later on, so expect to see the likes of Diego Rosa, Tanel Kangert, Amael Moinard, Michael Schar, Winner Anacona, Emanol Erviti and maybe Mikel Landa possibly go on the attack too. None of which are looking overly strong, but might have a good day and if the gap gets a big enough lead they might make it in the top 5. Vincenzo Nibali is a likely candidate too but his heart doesn't seem to be in it, and he doesn't seem to have the legs either.. He attacked on the Colombier, didn't get very far and was promptly shelled out the back door. 

I think though that there will be a big battle between the break and the GC men - I think the pace is going to be really high all day in the peloton so the lead might not get above 6 or 7 minutes. This would then be whittled down to maybe 3 or 4 minutes on the Forclaz and it will be a major battle up the last 10kms of the Finhaut Emosson climb to the finish to hold off a flying mini peloton. 

And not to forget the likes of Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez.. Valverde might try attacking to draw Sky and Froome out, or to help a subsequent attack from Quintana.. If so, he rolls home 5 minutes down. Or he might just sit in if Nairo is on the attack and hitch a free ride, where he could possibly win the sprint. I think though he'll struggle if the pace is that high that Froome is attacking/defending so I don't think he'll be in the first 6. A Joaquim Rodriguez of old, with a different race situation would have been one of my favourites on a finish like this, if he could hang in there, the finish is perfect for him. But with the race finely balanced as it is, and the likelihood of ferocious racing in the closing kilometres, I don't know if he can hang in there. Dan Martin has been really struggling in the heat, not sure he'll be winning this stage in the heat expected. 

So - the break has a chance, maybe 30% U think, so we'll have a few guys for that. Of the GC men, Froome probably wins, but he's too short to get me interested, instead, I like Quintana e/w at 6s and Richie at 8/1, they could well be the first three home. And if Froome cracks then maybe Quintana and Porte will get back in the race. Mollema, Bardet and Yates won't be far behind though maybe.  

A bet I've seen tonight you have to take - Porte to finish in the top 10 - 4/9 with Ladbrokes.. He is 1/10 with William Hill which is more like what it should be. I've had 9pts to win 4pts

Recommendations:

0.3pts each-way on Sebastien Reichenbach at 50/1 with Corals paying 4 places

1pt each-way on Richie Porte at 8/1 with various, look to see if some go 4 or 5 places later, otherwise take 3 places

0.5pts each-way on Nairo Quintana at 6/1 with various

0.5pts each-way on Ilnur Zakarin at 22/1 with Corals paying 4 places

1pt on Rafal Majka at 16/1 on Betfair, look to lay it back at 6/1 or shorter if (when) he gets in the break. 

0.5pts on Rui Costa at 33s on Betfair, look to lay it back at 10s or under if he gets in the break

Matchbets

Yates to beat Valverde - 3pts at 6/4 with Paddy Power

Froome to beat Quintana, Barguil to beat Buchmann, Zakarin to beat Vuillermoz - 2pts at 12/5 with Bet365

Rui Costa to beat Alaphilippe - 2pts at 11/10 with Paddy Power

Pantano to beat Cummings - 2pts at 4/6 with PP

Clement to beat Chavanel, Costa to beat Alaphilippe, Reichenbach to beat Barguil - 1pt at 4/1 with PP