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Published on Tuesday, 01 July 2014 00:13

Tour de France Favourites & Contenders 

Froome and Contador the clear favourites.

The betting for the winner of the TDF has ebbed and flowed over the last 12 months, but one constant has remained strong - Chris Froome as the overall favourite. He was odds on for a 2nd success as soon as the champagne corks had been swept up last July and remains close to that mark as we are about to start in Leeds on Saturday.

A quick look at the prices as we stand just 5 days before we start stage 1 in Leeds.

Chris Froome - Team Sky, evens favourite.

Chris Froome heads the betting at the best price of even money (1/1) or 2.0 in decimal odds, but is as short as 8/11 (1.72). He is slightly better at 11/10 on Betfair. his price has been up and down a little as the months have gone by, hitting a low around 8/11 after winning in Oman in February. He then started to drift out to as big as 5/4 or so as injuries, illnesses etc affected his form and preparation. That yellow line I have highlighted was a bet of over £10,000 that was matched on him at 1.86 on Betfair in late February..

I was watching some of the old highlights recently of the stage up Alpe d'Huez when Froome came under pressure, got the knock and broke the rules with Porte going back to the car for a gel (or was it a gel, maybe in hindsight with what we know now, could it have been an inhaler he went back for?) and it made me think even more that Froome could be in for a tough race this year.

He's had a lot to deal with in the last three or four months, from his injuries and illnesses which disrupted his training and preparation, to the distractions with Wiggins' selection or not for the team, and more recently 'inhalergate' and his TUE for a Corticosteroid for his asthma during the Tour de Romandie. Along the way though, this season, he has been going about his business pretty well. He won in Oman with a commanding performance on Green Mountain. He finished 6th overall in Catalunya and after a month away from racing won the Tour de Romandie, beating Tony Martin in the TT (by 1") and taking 2nd in the Queen stage behind Simon Spilak, with Nibali, Costa and others trailing a minute behind.

Then came the Criterium du Dauphiné and it started really well for him winning the opening prologue from Contador and then winning the first mountainous stage from Contador once again. It all went pear-shaped for him though after crashing on stage 6, as the effects saw him fade badly at the end of the final stage when Talansky rode away with the victory.

His team has been badly hit this year too with his loyal lieutenant Richie Porte struggling with his own problems and looking nowhere near his best on some stages at the Criterium. At the same time though, Sky come here with a strong squad on paper - Porte, Kiryienka, Thomas, Nieve, Lopez, Eisel, Zandio and Pate are all good team men who will work hard for Froome. He may find himself isolated on some stages though if they burn their matches too early and there are a whole host of riders who could be attacking him and stretching Sky, most notably Contador, Valverde and Nibali. The good news for him and his backers though is that Porte apparently has recovered well and is reportedly flying right now. We saw how important he is to him in last year's race so having Porte in top form will be a major asset.

He should gain quite a lot of time on the outright climbers in the final TT, but with Contador time trialling better than he has been for a long time and Valverde just after producing one of the time trials of his life to win the Spanish national TT title, he may not have it as easy as he may have thought not so long ago.

Winner of the stage to La Planche des Belles Filles two years ago, he could well be favourite to win it again this year and lay down an early marker that could see him take over the yellow jersey. But it's a very different stage this year and with all the climbs that come before it he may well find himself isolated hitting the final ascent. Before that though he has to negotiate the tricky stages in England and the cobbles of stage 5, which could cause real problems to him and many others.

Stages 14 and 17 should suit him well with long tough climbs to the finish, but stage 18 could be one where he will come under aggressive attacks. First up, the Tourmalet - I think we could see fireworks here from Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo to try to wear out Sky ahead of the final ascent to Hautacam. I wouldn't be surprised if the likes of Contador or Nibali try to attack near the top in an attempt to gain time on the descent ahead of the final ascent to Hautacam.

I think Froome is a strong favourite of course - he will probably win or be right up there on a lot of the mountain stages. He should also do far better in the penultimate stage's TT than his main GC rivals, so if he has to find 30" or a minute he'll probably do so and win. The danger is that he may be unsettled in the opening week before they hit the proper hills and that his team let him down when the heavy pressure comes from Movistar, T-S and Astana. I think he is worth taking on at the prices to start with and see how things shape up a week in. So I am laying him at 11/10 as I think we can easily back him back at a price close to that if we need to several stages in, but also if anything goes wrong we're on the right side of the trade.

Alberto Contador - Tinkoff-Saxo, 7/4

What a difference eight months has made for Alberto Contador. Last October he was as big as 18/1 for the Tour after failing to really make any real challenge to Froome in the Tour and tailing his season off with a DNF in il Lombardia. He seemed to be regressing and not the Bertie of old since being caught for Clenbuterol doping.

But then he has hit this season like a new man. Some superb early season performances in the Algarve, Tirreno-Adriatico, Catalunya and the Pais Vasco has seen his odds tumble to as short as 11/8 (Froome's problems of course helping his price drop). He has put Froome and many other rivals to the sword already this year and is climbing as well as we have seen in a while with a real spring in his step. He has also been working a lot on his time trialling and the impact has been obvious in the TTs he has done this year, coming second to Tony Martin in Pais Vasco and 2nd to Froome in the Criterium, losing by only 8" to him.

He has a very good team with him this year, well he had until Roman Kreuziger's biological passport issues. The remaining team though is high quality with Mick Rogers and Nicolas Roche in great shape at the moment, Rogers coming off an excellent Giro where he took two stage victories and Roche recently winning the Route Du Sud. The team looks like being Majka, Paulinho, Mørkøv, Benatti, Tossata, Roche, Rogers and Hernandez and that's a good bunch of strong riders.

I think Contador has an excellent chance this year - he will love this course as there are loads of opportunities to attack and attack again, something that he is excellent at. I've never been a big fan of Contador but you can't help but admire him when he is attacking and racing hard. He is a real fighter and battles till his last drop of energy is gone and will really give Froome a run for his money like we saw in the Criterium this year. The fancy prices are long gone, but there was 9/4 available on Betfair earlier this week and I took some of that. 

Vincenzo Nibali - Astana, 10/1

I backed Nibali each way at 9/2 on the 17th January when it was rumoured that Quintana would not be riding the Tour and going to the Giro instead.. I thought back then that Nibali might well have been the one to challenge or at least finish closest to Froome and it was worth backing him. I have torn up that virtual betting slip many times over since then as he has displayed nothing to make me get excited about the bet. Down the field in San Luis, Dubai and Oman, his best result being a 3rd place in the lumpy stage 4 in the Tour of Oman. 

Down the field again in Paris Nice with an anonymous performance and a poor Ardennes campaign including flopping at Liege-Bastogne-Liege when fancied by some (not me..). It wasn't looking good for Vincenzo ahead of the Tour, especially condsidering he gave up his chance of retaining his Giro title. There were some signs of hope though starting to emerge in Romandie though, with an attempt at an attack on the climb to Aigle, but he was passed and comprehensively dropped by Froome.. He did grind it out that day though and the 7th place finish was promising, helping him to a 5th place finish overall. 

Again in the Criterium de Dauphiné he was just off the pace but rode solidly - 8th in the prologue, just 13" behind Froome was a good start and he followed it up with a good 6th on the Col du Béal, although he lost nearly 30" to Froome. A solid finish, just below the surface again saw him take 7th overall. Then out of the blue he only goes and wins the Italian Road Nationals last weekend with a brilliant display. Now you can't see a lot in the video below, and I apologise for the cheesefest that is the music (!), but what I did see here I was impressed with. Aggression and desire in his face. Repeated attacks blowing away quality riders, all bar rising start Davide Formolo who is in great form at the moment. Passion and sheer delight at the finish - there was a weight of pressure lifted off his shoulders in that performance and he should line up in his new Tricolore jersey with a great deal more confidence and a lot less pressure on him.  

He has never won a stage in the Tour though and he has focused his entire season around trying to improve on his 3rd place finish in 2012. The lack of TT miles and the profile of the one TT they have to ride will suit Nibali though and his experience and racing brain could well see him rise above some of the others. The squad has been strengthened specifically to help him in the Tour, with Liewe Westra a key signing, especially with the flat stages and the cobbled run to Arenberg in mind. With Scarponi, Fuglsang, Kangert, Iglinskiy and Grivko he has a strong team with him too. Of course I would have liked to have taken the 14/1 he was two weeks ago, but 10/1 still looks fair for a shot at the podium. 3rd place for me. 

Alejandro Valverde - Movistar, 20/1

Here's another candidate whose exploits last weekend has seen many observers suddenly sit up and go 'Whaaaat?' Valverde, who has never been even on the podium of the Spanish National TT championships, suddenly wins it by almost a minute from Izagirre and over a minute from former TT specialist Castroviejo. Ok, the rest of the field couldn't exactly be described as TT powerhouses, but nearly a minute?! Their placing were reversed the next day when Izagirre won the two-up sprint as they finished 10" ahead of the pack. Cue the mumblings that Valverde and Movistar were 'well prepared' and 'tuned up nicely' ahead of the TDF, especially when you see that they filled places 1-6 in the Time Trial!

Valverde has been in sensational form this year though, winning 3 stages and the overall in the Vuelta a Andalucia, then the Vuelta Ciclista a Murcia, 3rd in Strade Bianchi and 1st in Roma Maxima. Spectacular winner of La Fleche Wallonne, 2nd in Liege, 4th in Amstel Gold and 2nd in Route Du Sud just last week, he has had more top results in half a year than most pros will have in a lifetime. He looks primed and must also be desperate to make amends for what happened last year when the puncture/bad wheel change/cross wind acceleration by rivals left him more than 10 minutes down and out of contention by stage 13. The time he lost that day cost him a top 5 finish but he did well to finish in 8th considering. 

The fact that Quintana was sent to the Giro though shows that Movistar still believes in Valverde. He is super competitive and highly consistent - he will be there or thereabouts on all the mountain stages and although you wouldn't have thought the TT did him any favours, last weekend's win must surely have raised his confidence and expectations over a lumpy parcours. Even though the team has lost Rui Costa and does not have Quitana here, they are still a very solid, strong team. The addition of John Gadret will be a big help in the mountains, he rode well in the Criterium, taking a good 8th place on the final stage. 

I think though he will struggle to go with the accelerations when Contador and Froome go at it and will be in the next group of guys who will be fighting it out for the 3rd spot on the podium. There could be a stage or two for him though with punchy finishes to suit him. At even 30/1 on Betfair though I'll be passing on backing him, in fact the 11/4 for him to finish in the top 3 looks like a lay to me. 5th place for me. 

Andrew Talansky - Garmin Sharp, 33/1

Three weeks ago Andrew Talansky was 100/1 - he is now as short as a frankly ridiculous 16/1 with Stan James, he is generally twice that price, 33/1. He is 42s on Betfair and that's a lot more generous, but even at that price I'm not all that interested. Yes, he rode well in the Criterium but the win was almost gifted to him by Froome's injury and the Froome-Contador standoff which allowed the break to gain an unassailable lead. He rode hard and deserved the win in a dramatic day but I can't see him topping the top two here or possibly even the 3rd step on the podium. 

He has yet to win a race this year, with his best results 4th and 5th places. If he only manages 4ths and 5ths in this race he won't be winning it and the guys in 1st to 4th in front of him will be finishing above him in GC too you would think. 11th in Romandy, 7th in Catalunya and 11th in Romandie, 10th last year in the TDF, I can't see him making it up to the top steps and I'm actually tempted to lay him for a top 6 placing but there is no liquidity at all yet on Betfair in that market. 6th to 10th place finish for me. 

Rui Costa - Lampre Merida, 66/1

The world champion finally got the monkey off his back with an excellent win in the final stage of the Tour de Suisse, riding away from Frank and Mollema to also seal the overall victory. He's been knocking on the door all season with a series of 2nd and 3rd places, and he even finished 2nd again last weekend in the Portuguese Championships to his team-mate Nelson Oliveira. 

Costa is a canny, smart rider who picked off two superb stage wins last year, and landed big bets for me at 50/1 in the World Championships too. He is a strong climber who seems to have a very good knack of knowing when to go for the jugular and his record of three wins in a row on the mountainous Tour de Suisse should show that he can match most of the good climbers over a week's racing. His time trialling is a big weak spot, he finished 42nd and 134th in last year's TDF time trials and a performance like in the latter this year could see him lose 6 or 8 minutes to Froome (he lost 6'50" over just 33km last year, this year's TT is 54kms). He was 88th in the TT over 52kms in 2012, losing 7'12" to Wiggins. For that reason, I can't see him in the top 6 again this year, losing 7 minutes in a TT will put paid to those hopes and possibly top 10 hopes. 10th - 15th for me. 

Tejay Van Garderen - BMC, 66/1

Tejay is BMC's big hope this year with veteran Cadel Evans here to support him this year. Tejay has had a mixed year with a great result in winning the tough stage to Vallter 2000 in the Vuelta Catalunya, and his 2nd place on Green Mountain to Froome was eye-catching too as it propelled him in to 2nd place in the overall standings. 

Since then it's been a bit mixed with 6th overall (but a disappointing 9th in the ITT) in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, a DNF in Romandie after crashing and then 13th overall in the Critérium despite riding with a fractured hip. Significantly though he finished a long way back in 33rd place, over two and a half minutes back on Froome and Contador on the first mountain stage test on the Col Du Béal. We saw him blow spectacularly last year in the last few kms of Alpe d'Huez to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and I think he is vulnerable to off days like this where he'll suffer a lot.

The time trial should suit him well though and I'd expect him amongst the top 10 on that, just depends on where he is before the race of truth - if he is already 4 or 5 minutes down then no chance of course. But if he can be close to the leaders he could give it a real go on the final stage before Paris. I think though that his team is weak (bar maybe Sanchez, Scharr and Atapuma) and he will find himself isolated a lot on the later stages of each stage. He is 85/1 on Betfair and that is more reflective of his chances I think and I'll not be backing him right now either. 5th to 10th for me.

Jurgen Van Den Broeck - Lotto Belisol, 66/1

Back in 2010 I had a lot of faith in JVDB and backed him to win thousands at prices around 150-200/1 I think he was. He came very close to a podium in the end, finishing in 4th place but a good 6 minutes behind the replacement winner Andy Schleck (Contador was removed). That 4th place was the best place finish for a Belgian since Claude Criquielion in 1986. He also finished 4th for me in 2012, and adding to his bad luck, crashes took him out in 2011 and 2013. 2011 being a particularly horrible one, breaking his collar bone when coming down in the crash on roads I know well, descending off the Pas de Peyrol in the Cantal, the same crash that saw Vinokourov being lifted out of the trees by his team-mates after breaking his hip. 

Let's hope that he stays upright and fit and healthy as he is looking fit and strong this year again. JVDB was world junior TT champion in 2001 but since then his TT skills have waned a little as he went in search of better climbing legs. His team is weak though but he does have a very good liuetenant in Maxime Monfort for in the mountains. He's had pretty mediocre results so far this year but stepped it up a gear in the Critérium when movong on to the podium with a clever ride with Talansky, to land the each-way part of my recommendation on him at 50/1 earlier in the week.

He seems to be a level below the top climbers though and doesn't have the spark or power to sustain a strong attack - he remains a follower of wheels more than anything else, and although that tactic may well see him finish top 6 it's going to be a real challenge for him to finish in the top 3 or higher. 66/1 is tight but he may well give you a good run for your money at that price. Even better though would be to look for value in the Betfair markets, I backed him earlier in the year at an average price of 183/1 (I missed all the fancy prices up around 700!) but at that price I am hoping for a bit of fun over the next three weeks. 

Bauke Mollema - Belkin, 100/1

Bauke Mollema just seems to be getting better and better slowly but surely and is turning in to quite an all round bike rider. He impressed last year by finishing 6th overall in his first race as Belkin leader and also finishing all of the mountain stages in the top 10. He tends to be a bit inconsistent, not only from day to day and climb to climb but also even during the same climb! One minute he can look like he is smooth as silk and pedalling effortlessly, the next minute he can be all over his bike rocking and rolling and then back to the more relaxed style again.

He rode two good time trials last year, finishing 11th in both so this TT should hold him no fears, and he tends to go well in the latter stage of races too. He is an aggressive rider and I think we could well see him in action very early, as early as stage 2 where he might look to get the jump on his rivals with the finish in to Sheffield. 4th place in Fleche Wallone this year should suggest he will like the 25% gradients on Jenkin Road!

There are other stages he should like too, like stages 8 and 11 with their jagged profiles. His season has been sold but not spectacular with some respectable GC placings in the Vuelta a Andalucia and the Tour of Norway, but bettered them with a good 3rd place in the Tour de Suisse overall, taking a 2nd, 3rd and 4th place stage finishes along the way. He faded a little on the last stage when Costa rode away from him but he had worked hard that week and he was very pleased with his result and his form coming out of it, it's all about the big one next week. I think 100/1 just about reflects his chances and it may require some sort of intervention on Froome and Contador to make it happen, but at 300/1 on Betfair I had to have a small investment - who knows, if he takes yellow on stage 2 it could be an interesting bet!

So there we have it - lots of quality above, and I have only named the top 9 in the betting. Below that we have the likes of Richie Porte (who has had a dreadful last few months and will only get a chance should something happen to Froome) who is around 66/1 generally, as big as 80/1 on Betfair; Chris Horner, who will be Lampre's number two after Costa, but may just come out and surprise a few at 200/1; Joaquim Rodriguez who looks a huge price at 80/1 considering he finished 3rd last year - We haven't seen him since he crashed in stage 6 of the Giro - the Katusha leader suffered from deep cuts, a fractured rib and a broken thumb as a large percentage of the peloton was brought down on slick roads inside the final 12km to Montecassino. He may be a little rusty so then and will probably suffer on some of the long climbs, but he will be stage hunting as some of these stages, especially later in the race suit his finishing kick.

But that's about it really, it's very, very rare for a winner of a grand Tour to come from outside a top selection of 10 or so riders, as the cream usually rises to the top. I think this race is going to be fascinating and will ebb and flow during the three weeks so there could be plenty of opportunity for manoevering and in-play trading, so stay tuned! I think though that Contador will really put it up to Froome and in light of all the problems he and Sky have faced this year he has to be taken on for now at 11/10. It may sound crazy, but there is something in the back of my head says that he may not even finish the race!

With that in mind and with the reports that Porte is absolutely flying at the moment I thought it might be prudent to have a small bet on him at 66/1 with Ladbrokes. This bet might have some legs for two reasons. First,  if Froome does struggle for whatever reason he could assume team leadership duties and given how well he can climb when going well and seeing as the TT will suit him a lot he could well be challenging for victory. He just can't afford to lose too much time if Froome does have a bad day,  Brailsford needs to kick plan B in to action quickly! Second reason this bet may give us a bit of value is that if he and Froome are both flying then he should be finishing near the top of the stage standings on the mountain stages and could possibly move close to a podium placing. The final TT could seal it. At 66/1 it's worth a small bet I think. 

Edit - 13/7/2014: One other bet I fancied along the way which I backed on the 13th July was Thibaut Pinot at 200/1 each-way with Betfair sportsbook after he performed well behind Contador and Nibali on the climb to La Mauselaine. 

My Ante-Post bets and recommendations:

Vincenzo Nibali - 1.5pts each-way at 9/2 with Paddy Power (take the 10/1 with BetVictor or Coral!)

Jurgen Van Den Broeck - 1pt at 183/1 average on Betfair

Bauke Mollema - 0.3pts win at 300/1 on Betfair

Lay Chris Froome to lose 5.5pts at 11/10 on Betfair (to win 5pts)

Back Alberto Contador for 3pts at 3.3 on Betfair

Back Richie Porte - 0.5pts each-way at 66/1 with Ladbrokes

Thibaut Pinot - 0.5pts each-way at 200/1 with Betfair Sportsbook (backed on the 13th July evening)