Details

Published on Tuesday, 09 July 2019 20:44

TDF 2019 Stage 5

St-Dié-des-Vosges - Colmar

Wed. 10th July, 169kms 

The race enters the Alsace region and brings with it the first real climbs of the Tour. Four categorised climbs, with the final Cat 3, the Cote des 5 Chateaux topping out with just 18kms to go to the finish. 

It looks like a day that the break has a chance of succeeding - it will be a tough stage to control and if a break of 6-10 or so goes up the road, it might be that not many teams will be willing or able to chase if they have team-mates up the road. Plus, there's the big stage tomorrow to La Planche that a lot will be fearing and will be wanting to save the legs for. 

Having said that though, there is a chance that if some of the teams with 'climbing sprinters' fancy the stage they will go for it, if they can close down the break on the final hill and drag their man over the top in contention, there might not be many sprinters left in the field at the finish. I'm looking at you Peter Sagan, Michael Matthews, Matteo Trentin and Sonny Colbrelli.

It was interesting tonight though to hear Richie Porte say that he is looking forward to a good fight tomorrow, he thinks that it could be a day we could see some real action, and that it will be a 'good day to warm up the legs' ahead of Thursday.. I'm also hearing from inside the Trek camp that Richie is very chilled and very confident and they are really looking forward to getting in to the mountains. With a half decent TT too, it's looking like a top 10 place is a pretty decent bet at 5/6. 

Stage 4 Review

A pretty boring stage today, the break went literally at the flag drop when Backaert and Offredo of Wanty jumped and Schar of CCC went with them. Lotto, DQS and Sky were near the front, and happy with the composition of the break they sat up and blocked the road, much to Sean Kelly’s dismay.

They held them to around 3 minutes though, there were no 10 minute gaps to have to try to close, and the break was reeled in with 16kms to go, thanks to a combination of Lotto, DQS and Jumbo doing the pulling in the last 2 hours.

It was a very hectic finale, but miraculously there were no crashes and it came down to the big gallop.. And what a sprint it was, with Elia Viviani winning for us again, nice to have two winners in a row, we’re joining Jumbo and DQS with two wins! DQS were brilliant though, first with Alaphilippe taking a massive pull in to the last kilometre and then Richeze and Morkov doing an incredible job to put Viviani in the box seat with just 100m to go.

The warning signs were there from Viviani, he comfortably cruised to the intermediate sprint 'win' for 4th place, Sagan struggled to get past Colbrelli and none of the others really got close. It was similar in the final sprint, Sagan failed to podium and Viviani cruised to a win again. He said afterwards that they had learned their lessons from the first stage and that he was going to just stick like glue to Richeze, it worked a treat sitting in behind a proper leadout. 

Alexander Kristoff surprised me with his strong sprint in second, he got a good leadout too to drop him off beside Viviani and he tried to get the jump on him but just didn’t have his speed. Caleb Ewan looked very fast, Lotto did a great job in the closing kilometers to set him up too, but he got trapped inside Viviani and couldn’t come through. In fact, he set the fastest speed in the sprint, hitting 70mph in the last 50m, Viviani only had to hit 67kmph and still won. He did though get up to snatch 3rd from Sagan, and in the process won his matchbet by the smallest of margins. With that speed and leadout, I think he'll win a stage yet. 

Jumbo Visma were all over the place and Groenewegen and Teunissen both sprinted and failed, ending up 5th and 6th. Sonny Colbrelli was disappointing too, he finished way down in 18th after getting lost in the traffic and Dimension Data did all their best work in the wrong places, far too far from the finish, and couldn’t deliver Nizzolo when it mattered most, he was on his own in the last kilometre and finished 7th.

The Route

A 175km trek that takes them in a z-shaped loop south, passing over plenty of lumps and bumps along the way. There's a Cat 3 after 44kms, then two Cat 2's after 110kms and 140kms, the second of which hits 6.7% for 5kms, which should be enough to shake out most sprinters. Then just before they start to turn left to head towards Colmar they go over the final climb of the day. 

The Cote des Cinq Chateaux averages 6.1% for 4.6kms, but actually carries on climbing for another 2kms or so once they pass the KOM point, so it's a pretty long climb, any remaining sprinters hanging in there will be under severe pressure at this stage. That leaves an 8kms descent, followed by a flat run to the line for the last 9kms. The final kilometre is dead flat, with not a lot of tricky bends to negotiate. There is a 90 degree right-hander with 4.6kms to go, then a 90 degree turn around a roundabout with 3.4kms to go but then it's pretty straight more or less for the last 3kms.

They do have to go through a roundabout with 400m to go but it is pretty wide and shouldn't cause any problems (below). The final kilometre is dead flat. 

Contenders and Favourites

So it's a stage with a chance for the breakaway, a lot of riders will be thinking about the stage they are facing the next day with three Cat 1s, two Cat 2s and two Cat 3s, finishing atop the La Planche climb. What do DQS do? If they work hard all day today to defend Alaphilippe's jersey, they will have a very busy day indeed and it could take a lot out of them.

There is a VERY slim chance that Viviani could make it, he did win stage 4 of the TDS which had a Cat 3 that averaged 4.8% for 5.1kms just 19kms from the finish (and actually kept climbing for several kilometres after the summit). But I think at the speeds the final two climbs will be taken at, and the gradient being that bit steeper, he's not going to make it this time. Matty White said this afternoon that they didn't expect Viviani to make it over either. 

And if they do work hard all day to pull back the break, can Julian Alaphilippe win a sprint against Matthews and Colbrelli? Unlikely, he looks too short to me at 4/1 (in from 6/1), unless he did what he did yesterday and attacks away over the final climb, but I can't see them letting him do that again. They will really have to kill it to get rid of all the sprinters, and I don't think they will.

Also, is there any point in wasting so much energy with La Planche the next day, they will be needed to look after Enric Mas as much as possible, he's had a good start to the race thanks to their powerful TT. So, I think they will contribute to keep things under control, but I don't think they'll be killing themselves. 

So who will do the chasing? Well, Bora, Bahrain and Sunweb probably, maybe M-S for Trentin, unless they have got men in the break. Bora will chase for Peter Sagan, he will not only want the stage win, but the points too with Viviani now only 23pts behind him and they will look to try to get rid of some of the weaker (but faster) sprinters like Ewan, Viviani and Groenewegen. Sagan should be fine on this profle and will be there in the front 10 coming through the final roundabout, but will he be fast enough?

Max Schachmann is being backed tonight, he's in to 12/1 from 16/1, I'm guessing people are thinking something like me, that Sagan isn't 100% and maybe they should give Schachmann a go.. I still think Sagan is their main man though, so not for me at that price. 

Bahrain will chase to give Sonny Colbrelli a chance, he was sprinting well and is probably one of the best sprinters in the peloton at getting over a profile like this, he just got a little lost in the melee today at the finish. They have a lot of firepower for on the climbs, with Nibali, Mohoric, Tratnik, Dennis, Caruso and Teuns, they could really make some suffer on the final two hills, and with a much smaller group likely to be contesting the sprint, he might fare better. 

But will Nibali and the team be thinking about the next day? Nibali has won before on La Planche, I'm pretty sure he will have it marked on the roadbook as one that he is going to target again, so he might not want to go too hard.

But what if they send Colbrelli in the break? He could well make it and then fend for himself, they won't have to worry about chasing all day then and he would have a massive chance of winning it from the sprint, unless there is an Alaphilippe or another strong climber like that who attacks away from them on the final hill and Colbrelli can't close him down. But I give him more of a chance of being involved than the 66/1 odds suggest, so I'm having a nibble.

UPDATE - I've just seen him tweet a picture of him with his little girl tonight, she's at the Tour, chances are she will be at the finish tomorrow with the wife too. You probably all know my feelings about the extra watts that riders can find having family and friends at the finish, so you know, let's go Sonny!

Michael Matthews is different though, they don't really have a GC guy now, so they will be willing to work and chase to try to set it up for a sprint for Matthews. They worked hard on the final climb today to try to put some of the other sprinters under pressure, but it didn't work, they should have more success on a finish like this and should strip the pack down to give Bling a big chance in the sprint. 

He was only 9th today, but he wasn't far off Sagan's wheel, and he'll be getting fitter and faster with every day that passes, and he should be one of the fastest in a reduced group after a tough finale. He looks a decent bet at 9/1 e/w, he should podium. 

I think there is only a very slim chance that Caleb Ewan will make it over the hill, but there is a small chance.. Lotto will work very hard for him, unless as I said Wellens goes in the break, and based on his speed at the finish today, he'd take the win. He's a real long shot, but worth a small win bet at 125/1.

Greg Van Avermaet, Wout Poels, Alejandro Valverde and Michael Valgren are others who could be involved in the finish, but I can't see them finishing in the top 3. 

I think the break has a chance of making it today, but picking a break candidate this early in the race is almost impossible, there could be about 50 guys wanting to get in this break tomorrow. It’s going to be a very fast start, so you will need power and determination, and you will also need to be able to climb at the end of the day with three climbs of around 5kms at around 6% to get over. And then maybe sprint from a small group at the finish or pull off a late attack.

Some break lottery candidates: I was thinking Thomas de Gendt – he should like this stage profile, but actually, with Tim Wellens in Polka-dots, maybe it will be Wellens will go from Lotto so as to try to take more points and keep the jersey for another day, he will like this profile too and could attack on the final climb, or on the run-in to the finish.

But he was struggling on that little climb today 15kms from the finish, going out the back door, but I think that was him just taking it easy ahead of tomorrow - he lost more time, is more than 16 mins down, they won't be worried if he goes up the road. His Belgian compatriot Oliver Naesen is now over 15 mins down already, has he been putting time in the bank for a stage like this?

Stefan Kung is another big engine who might like this combination of rolling and flat roads and then some not-so-difficult climbs at the end. CCC put Schar in the break today, I thought maybe they’ll try again tomorrow with Serge Pauwels, he looked strong in the Hammer Stavanger and the opening TT, but it’s been over 2 years since he won a race, plus he crashed yesterday and took flesh off his buttocks.. could be a bit sore tomorrow.

Toms Skujins wasn’t feeling so good at the weekend, he told me that he had eaten an out-of-date Beet shot ahead of the first stage.. I asked him 'Did you have to do a Dumoulin?" and he said "Yeah man, it was coming out one way or the other!" But he should be better by now, he should like this course too, he might be worth a nibble at 200/1. 

Cofidis might be looking to send someone in the break today, they’ll hope for better luck than yesterday when two of their riders crashed. Nicolas Edet could be a pick for this one, but he’s too close on GC I think, instead maybe Stephane Rossetto could go, he has been active already in this race but is over 20 mins down, he's 200/1 too.

Total Direct Energie have been very quiet so far, maybe they’ll try to get someone in the break – Rein Taaramae and Niki Terpstra are two likely candidates, with Taaramae preferred, he’s had better results for this than Terpstra this year and is a better climber and finisher.. He's 400/1

And finally, maybe this could be a day for Steve Cummings to justify his place in the race ahead of Mark Cavendish? He DNF’ed in the Tour of the Basque Country, Tour of Norway and the Dauphine, but did finish 3^rd in the British TT championships, so the legs can’t be that bad. I expect him to have to do something at some point, this could be a day for him to try, he's 150/1.

This is a very hard stage to call - it'll be break vs strong sprinters' teams and the GC men will be getting involved too.. Alaphilippe might be fighting to extend his lead in the GC by taking some bonus seconds, to give him some slipping room the next day so he could maybe hang on to the jersey. I think Sagan, Matthews, Trentin are going to make it to the finish with the peloton, Colbrelli could too, and possibly Ewan.. But we'll throw in some break candidates for fun too. 

Recommendations:

0.25pts e/w on Sonny Colbrelli at 66/1

1pt e/w on Michael Matthews at 10/1

0.2pts win on Caleb Ewan at 125/1

1pt win on Tim Wellens at 16/1

0.2pts win on Steve Cummings at 150/1

0.2pts win on Rein Taaramae at 400/1

0.2pts win on Toms Skujins at 200/1 

4pts on Richie Porte to finish in the top 10 of the GC at 5/6

Matchbets

Michael Matthews to beat Peter Sagan - 2pts at 5/6

Herrada to beat Barguil - 2pts at 11/10