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Published on Tuesday, 23 July 2019 19:12

TDF 2019 Stage 17

Pont du Gard - Gap

Wed July 24th, 206kms 

A stage that looks worse on the profile than it probably is, and it looks like a perfect stage for the break of the day. It could well be decided by whoever can hang in there over the Cat 3 which tops out with just 9kms to go. 

The break have a big chance today again, with the beast of a stage the next day that takes in the Izoard and the Galibier, the GC men and their teams will be looking for a day off, and those who fear the big mountains will be looking to try to make a move on what could be their last chance of a stage victory.

Stage 16 Review

So after all the expectations and predictions that there would be a big break of strong rouleurs go up the road and the peloton wouldn’t be interested in chasing, we got the very opposite. A small, five-man break with Gougeard and Lars Bak never got more than about 2 minutes and the sprinters’ teams shared the work needed to keep them within reach. The break did a great job though and were only caught with 2.5kms to go.

And what a final kilometre we were treated to – Lotto were at the front, Groenewegen in 2^nd wheel and Ewan in 3^rd, but suddenly they were swamped and Ewan fell back to about 10^th place with only 500m to go, with no team-mates around him. But he started his sprint from about 250m out, came storming up the outside and won it by almost a bike length..

And Viviani and Groenewegen did the business for us too to fill the top three places and land almost all bets, with only Greipel letting us down by not being able to beat EBH who was 12^th. 16pt profit though, 3^rd winner in a row and 6^th stage winner out of 16, pretty happy with the last few days.

The big new on the day were two crashes – one for Geraint Thomas where he came down all on his own, possibly from a touch of wheels from a team-mate, they’re saying his gears jammed (?!) but he got up and rode on and looked to be ok, but he does have a bang on his knee and elbow and it might be a bit stiff and sore in the next few days.

Jakob Fuglsang fared a lot worse though, he came down late in the stage and had to abandon, meaning Richie Porte has now moved up in to the top 10. Thomas has drifted a little bit as a result, with Pinot and Bernal shortening a little too. 

The Route

An interesting-looking stage this one, it's a long one at 206kms, and it will feel like they are climbing for half the day. The opening 40kms are pretty flat, but then it starts to climb gently and carries on climbing for more or less 70kms until the top of the Cote de la Rochette du Buis, which, although the climb from the bottom is 70kms long, the Cat 4 climb is only 2.3kms at 6.2%. And it actually carries on climbing for another 6kms after the KOM, making it nearly 80kms from bottom to top. 

The next 70kms are more or less flat as they head east towards the Alps along a plateau, but kicks up for 5.2kms at 5.4% for the Col de la Sentinelle, a Cat 3 climb that comes just 8.5kms from the finish. From the top it's a 7.5km descent that is interrupted by two short little ascents, but once they hit the bottom they hit a slightly uphill last kilometre, around 1.5% gradient.

The road is quite twisty on the way down to Gap, it gets quite tricky just outside 5kms to go, then there are a number of tricky, tight bends in the last 4kms, but straightens up for the downhill from 2kms to go. Inside the last kilometre the road starts to slope upwards again, but it's almost imperceptable, a very gentle gradient. The Tour finish map seems to show it kicking left and right with about 200m to go, but in reality it's just a roundabout and they'll just fly through the right side of it as you can see in the overhead shot below, nothing to worry about. 

Contenders and Favourites

The sprinters had their fun today, the climbers will take over for Thursday, Friday and Saturday, so this is the last chance really in the race for the rouleurs and breakaway men to take anything out of this race.

There are only two climbs on the route as they head east and towards the Pyrenees, a Cat 4 that is officially just 2.3kms long, but in reality they will have been climbing gently for almost 80kms, rising 850m in the process. They then run along a plateau for 70kms before the tricky little test of the Cat 3 Col de la Sentinelle that tops out with just 8.5kms to go. It’s 5.2kms long at an average of 5.4%, so should decide the winner on the day, if you don’t have the legs you’ll be left behind by the stronger men in the break. The last kilometre is flat, so we could see a sprint between a small group, or possibly even a solo winner.

I’m only looking at breakaway candidates today, most sprinters won’t make it and the GC men/climbers will be saving themselves and their teams for the next three days. We should therefore see a large break going and should build up enough of a lead to take the stage win, none of the GC teams will want to chase. The only teams that could chase really are teams that miss out on getting in the break, but I think they will be fighting a losing battle. 

Lots of candidates, but look for strong rouleurs who have been showing themselves a bit in the last week or so, they need to be able to climb a bit and a sprint at the end would be advantageous too.

Daryl Impey immediately springs to mind as someone who fits the bill, he’s already won a stage like this and the team is in great form with three wins already. They have made no secret of the fact they are going for more stage wins and Impey could be their man here. He might even get help from the likes of Michael Hepburn and Chris Juul Jensen.

Simon Geschke rode brilliantly on Sunday to get us very excited at a massive price of 300/1, he did what he promised and got in the break. This stage is a lot easier than Sunday’s, but could be perfect for him to go again, he’s clearly got good legs right now. He could be joined by the likes of Greg Van Avermaet and Lukas Wisniowski, Greg Van Avermaet would have a big chance on a stage like this too, with its undulating course and a battle over a short and sharp Cat 3 near the finish. And also, Serge Pauwels said in his post-race interview with Eurosport that tomorrow was a day for Greg, so expect him to be in the breakaway. 

Astana have had a horror show  this Tour, with Pelle Bibao’s 2^nd place on stage 12 the only time they have finished in the top 8 of any stage, and Jakob Fuglsang’s GC dreams are in ruins. They are sure to send some men up the road again tomorrow, with Fuglsang out they have even more freedom than usual, but who? It could be any of Alexey Lutsenko, Omar Fraile, Luis Leon Sanchez, Pelle Bilbao, Gorka Izagirre or Magnus Cort, and I’m favouring Magnus Cort and Alexey Lutsenko as they have looked the most keen lately and look suited to this course.

Lotto Soudal are also going to probably launch multiple efforts at the break and could get 2 or 3 riders in it if it’s a big break. Tiesj Benoot, Tim Wellens, Thomas de Gendt and Jens Keukeleire could all try, of that lot, maybe Benoot might go the best on a finish like this. De Gendt said after today's stage that twice he has been in a break that has made it all the way to Gap, and he hopes to be in the break again tomorrow. But, can he solo away or win a sprint? I'm not so sure.. 

Bahrain have nothing really to hold back for now, so expect a few of their guys to try to infiltrate the break too. Matej Mohoric, Dylan Teuns, Jan Tratnik and Damiano Caruso and Ivan Garcia Cortina are all likely candidates for a day like this, we may even get 2 or 3 of them get in the break. Garcia Cortina said on Bahrain's Twitter tonight "Tomorrow the break could go away and I will try to be part of it, I’d like to leave a mark on this Tour" - he's 80/1 so let's add him too for fun. Mohoric might have a chance if he were to attack on the last climb and descend like a stone down to the finish to victory.

Sunweb have a few guys who should be up for the break too – I wouldn’t be surprised if Michael Matthews tries to get in the break too, like Impey, if he can get over the final climb with the leaders, he probably wins. Plus, he seems to be interested in chasing Green Jersey points once again and there are some after just 62kms. Nico Roche has also looked very keen to get in breaks, he’ll probably be there again.

If Matthews goes though, expect Peter Sagan to probably try to follow him.. He will not let anyone come close to him, so will probably try to get in the break. The final climb is probably too tough for him, as it will be raced really hard. Bora could also send Daniel Oss with him.

Nils Politt of Katusha has been very keen to get in breaks lately but has found the climbing too hard, this might be a bit more up his street, Mads Wurtz likewise. Direct Energie have been trying but failing repeatedly, and they are not exactly having a Tour to remember, Calmejane has been a big disappointment and Terpstra went home early. Romain Sicard, Anthony Turgis and Rein Taaramae might be the men to try for them, but I’m not backing them.

EF Education First are probably going to try to fire a few in the break, Simon Clarke and Alberto Bettiol their most likely candidates for a stage like this. Wanty will wanty men in the break, Xandro Meurisse and Aime De Gendt are their most likely candidates, with Xandro Meurisse marginally preferred, he’s had an impressive three top 10s in this Tour and can climb, power on the flats and sprint.

Trek – not much joy in this Tour, Richie has blown hot and cold but is on the fringes of the top 10.. So it’s likely we’ll see Trek involved as well, with Toms Skujins and Fabio Felline two that I fancy from them. It went under the radar a little with the excitement of the Yates/Bilbao/Muhlberger sprint finish, but on stage 12 to Bagneres de Bigorre, Fabio Felline finished an impressive 5^th place, outsprinting Trentin, Stuyven and GVA.

This is course that should suit him and he seems to be finding some legs – plus it’s contract year for him, he is apparently working on a new contract with Trek (with another offer in the pipeline) so a good showing could add some $$ to his new contract. Skujins has signed a new contract with Trek and is very happy there, he's keen to get up the road too now. But I'm also hearing that Jasper Stuyven fancies this day too.. very difficult to know who to go with!

And finally, Dimension Data – only noticeable really in this race because Steveo Cummings continues his crusade to get them as much TV coverage as possible from that camera at the back of peloton. They will be under a lot of pressure too to get someone in the break, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Ben King, Lars Bak and Michael Valgren could try, but the only one I’d give a chance to would be EBH on a really good day, which I’m not sure he’s got in him.

AG2R are also probably going to be screaming at their riders to get in the move, but I don't think Bardet will - he'll be saving himself for the days to come I think, I think he is highly motivated to leave a mark on this Tour before it's over. He says he will keep going this week until he has nothing left to give (and also apparently that he is going to go for medical tests after the Tour to try to explain why he's had such a bad race..).

But also his domestiques could be given the green light, Alexis Vuillermoz has been keen (but not very good), and we could also see Oliver Naesen and Tony Gallopin trying it on a stage like this, it should suit them both I think. Gallopin has been struggling for a lot of this race, but did seem to find his legs a little in stage 15, but couldn't go with the big moves. He did finish 24th on the day though, it would have been a good confidence booster for him I think to get in the big break of the day. Naesen has been riding a lot better though, with a 4th, 7th, 8th and 9th so far in this race, he could have a big chance too I think.

So I think it’s pretty clear that I think the break wins, the problem is that I have named over 30 riders above! So I’m going to throw some darts at big prices and hopefully we’ll get some of them in the breakaway with a shot at winning. I don't think I've ever picked so many riders for a stage, but hopefully we'll get 4 or 5 of them in and give us something to shout about for the afternoon. We've had a good few days, invest the profits! 

Recommendations:

0.3pts e/w on Oliver Naesen at 33/1

0.5pts win on Jasper Stuyven at 33/1

0.3pts e/w on Fabio Felline at 50/1

0.3pts win on Xandro Meurisse at 100/1

0.75pts win on Matej Mohoric at 20/1

0.5pts win on Daryl Impey at 40/1

1pt win on Greg Van Avermaet at 18/1

0.25pts e/w on Garcia Cortina at 80/1 

0.5pts win on Magnus Cort at 25/1

Matchbets

Van Avermaet to beat Trentin - 2pts at 5/4