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Published on Saturday, 15 July 2017 21:12

TDF17 Stage 15

Laissac-Sévérac l'Église to Le Puy-en-Velay

Sunday 16th July, 189.5kms 

A rolling transition stage that sees them skirt along the edge of the Massif Central en route to Puy en Velay. Anyone who knows the roads around here will know that this is probably going to be a tougher day than the profile suggests.

Generally heading north-east for the day, the road turns eastwards with about 50kms to go. It doesn't get very windy here most of the time, but if there is the typical southerly wind blowing up here we could see splits and echelons once over the Cat 1 Col de Peyra Taillade with 30kms to go. It doesn't look likely though as the forecast is for winds of just 7-8 mph. 

It could be a frantic last 50kms as the GC teams charge down the hill from La Penide and along the valley, trying to tee up their men for the final climb. There's also the Cote de Saint Vidal that comes with just 14kms to go and a short, uncategorised little bump with 6kms to go which is sure to see some late attacks. Bar those two little bumps on the way home it's mostly downhill for the last 30kms, so it should be extremely fast. 

Stage 14 Review

The break contained two of the same guys who went in the break to Rodez two years ago, with Thomas de Gendt and Thomas Voeckler, and they were joined by Timo Roosen, Maxime Bouet and Reto Hollenstein. They were never left get a decent gap though as Sunweb and BMC controlled the gap around two minutes. Thomas de Gendt made it hard for the peloton, pushing on ahead, but was caught on that pull up out of Bonnecombe. The finale was pretty wild though and in the end Michael Matthews was just too strong for Van Avermaet, doing to Van Avermaet what Van Avermaet did to Sagan 2 years ago. 

John Degenkolb got me excited for a while as he was 4th wheel, but faded out of it when Gilbert kicked. Uran did well to finish 9th, not far off at all for a 125/1 shot. Chris Froome was the big winner of the day though, sprinting to 7th place, gaining time on a number of his rivals, particularly Aru, who inexplicably threw the jersey away with a pathetic show on the final climb, and now finds himself 19" behind Froome. The theory seems to be that he was happy to give the jersey away, as he doesn't have the team to control the race, let Sky do that, and then attack Froome in the Alps.. That's all well and good, but don't give away 19" in doing it, 4 or 5 would have been enough!

Dan Martin did superbly well to stay with Froome, he made up some time on his rivals and now sits just 9" off Landa in 5th and just over a minute off the podium. I really feel for Martin, he's never gone so well in a Grand Tour and he could well be comfortably in the top 3 only for his crash. Let's hope he keeps getting better and better, and he puts on a show in the Alps. He said after the stage that he is starting to feel better, the swelling has gone down and the Osteopath is able to manipulate it a bit more. He also said that he struggles to climb out of the saddle, but he is ok sprinting out of the saddle.. pity he couldn't outsprint Yates yesterday then.. 

Uran also made up some time, Bardet lost some time. Bakelants finished 14th, Wellens it turns out is suffering from a heat-related allergy so was totally screwed today, very annoying when that happens. 

The Route

Setting out from Laissac Sévérac L'Eglise they get a relatively easy opening 20kms, but it's sure to be anything but easy at the front of the race as lots of guys will want to be in the break of the day and we could see furious action until a break is established on the Montee de Naves d'Aubrac, a Cat 1 climb that starts after just 19kms. This is sure to hurt, so early in the stage, averaging 6.4% for nearly 9kms, but after a little plateau for 8kms they continue climbing with the Cat 3 Cote de Vieurals (3.3kms at 5.9%)

The road then descends for over 50kms before an uncategorised climb to L'Hospitalet du Sauvage after 107kms (11.5kms at 3.5%). Then it's downhill and flat roads for the next 40kms again, bar a few little bumps along the way, but after 149.7kms they start on the key climb of the stage, the Cat 1 Col de Peyra Taillade. The complete stats are 8.3kms at 7.4%, but the opening 4kms aren't too bad, averaging 6.4%. After a short flat section just after Vergues the road really kicks up for around 1700m at gradients of over 12%, hitting a max of 14%, then flattens out a little to 4.7% for a kilometre, then rises again to 7.2% for the last 1300m.

17kms of a fast descent takes them to the Cat 4 Cotes de Saint Vidal, a short little hiccup at just 1.9kms but at 6.8% it's a Cauberg like climb that is sure to see some final attempts to try to win the stage, be it from the break of the day, or from the remains of the peloton. There is another very short little bump with 6kms to go, but then it's downhill for a few kilometres and a flat run to the line for the last 3kms. The finish is twisty and tricky, but I've a feeling it will be a small group comes to the line for this one. 

Contenders and Favourites

This stage has 'Break' written all over it again, it's a very hard stage to control and I think there are probably a lot of guys who have basically been hiding away for the last few days who could have a go today. It's a really difficult, rolling stage that will suit some riders more than others, and the fact there are two Cat 1 climbs along the way, one of which is quite hard with 2kms that average 11% is sure to bring out some of the stronger climber types looking to stay away and take victory.

Lilian Calmejane was one I have been thinking about for a few days for his stage. He hails from Albi, close to where yesterday's stage passed and went to University in Rodez, so you'd have thought he might have been on the attack yesterday on his 'home' roads. The fact he didn't go in the break though says two things.. either he is cooked and doesn't have the legs, or that he was saving himself for a stage that suits him a lot better.. that's what I'm hoping, and I think he will be trying to get in the break. In the end today he finished a very creditable 21st, so he finished well up the hill. He's 33/1 with Will Hill and that's too good to leave. 

Alessandro De Marchi was another who I thought might be trying to get away in a stage like this, we have seen flashes of him in breaks so far in this race, but nothing has really come to fuition for him. He has a tendency to get stronger in the second and third week of Tours, so it's coming to his time of the race. I like his chances for tomorrow. BMC are really having a nightmare in this race, they surely would have had today's stage marked as theirs with Van Avermaet, but that went south, they really need to try to get something out of a very disappointing race for them. He's 33/1 with 365, that's ok with me, he's 22s elsewhere. 

So, another BMC rider who could have a go too is Damiano Caruso - he has been riding really well and showed his strength with the chase down of Lammertink today, it was effortless for him and he just sat on the wheels so he actually didn't have to work at all in the last 10kms. He is only in 14th place in the GC, but he is over 11 minutes down so he might be let have some freedom.   He finished just one place behind Calmejane today in 22nd, he too finished well to protect his 14th place.

Two likely lads Thomas de Gendt and Voeckler were in the break today, unlikely we'll see them on the attack again tomorrow, but Tony Gallopin might fancy it for Lotto-S. He came to the front for a little while on the final drag today after they caught De Gendt, he might give it a go tomorrow, with Wellens being ill as well, he should get the nod. Or Tiesj Benoot could also try to get away, he has been trying to get involved several times now and has said that he is climbing really well at the moment, this could be a good stage for him too. But at 14/1? No thanks. 

I know I've backed him a few times and it hasn't paid off, but I think Serge Pauwels is going to go on the attack one of these days and make it stick. He just needs the right company and a day off in the peloton and he could go all the way. I'm going to give him another shot tomorrow. He opened at 40s and I took a half a point e/w on that, he's 33s now with 365, but you might get 40s with others later on, and the 33s is still worth taking. Brice Feillu has been very active for Fortuneo, he has been on a number of attacks and has ridden strongly in the mountains. He is far enough down to not be a concern so he should have freedom to go again.

Will Sky put men in the break? It's possible, they might send Rowe or Kwiatkowski up the road, but I'm not sure they will, it's all about getting Froome safely in to week 3 now. Astana don't have the men to go on the attack and I think Orica will be looking after Yates, although Michael Albasini might fancy this stage, it looks a little like something out of the Tour de Romandie or Tour de Suisse, and he's 150/1. Jens Keukeleire could also have a go too for them. 

Cannondale Drapac will be looking after Uran too, but they might send someone up the road, but their numbers are limited as Rolland, Talansky and Phinney all look cooked. Simon Clarke might like a stage like this, as could Nathan Browne, but I wouldn't hold my breath with them. Diego Ulissi has tried a number of times now as well but just hasn't been able to make it stick yet, but if he can get in the right move he has a chance. I'd be worried he'd be able to stay with the better climbers like Barguil or Calmejane though on the Cat 1 so I'm going to pass over him. 

Then you have the likes of Steve Cummings who once again was at the back of the peloton all day, was he struggling when dangling off the back, or was he just chilling ahead of tomorrow? I don't know if it's the latter and am not risking him at just 8/1!! 8/1 on an open stage like this is just insane. But the bookies know that there will be idiots back him at that price, who have no concept of value. So they open at 8/1, they pile in in case he shortens, shorten him from 8/1 to 7/1, more pile in in case they miss the 7/1 and they are delighted to lay him at that price. Instead they might send Dimitri Claeys up the road instead, but he's not even quoted. 

Warren Baguil is very short in the betting at just 11/1, but that's because it's an easy day for him to wrap up the KOM - an early Cat 1 and Cat 4 should see him almost make it a certainty, and he has the final Cat 1 potentially too to add some more. And as we saw on Friday, he has quite a good sprint on him so he'd be one of the favourites should a small group come to the finish  Thibaut Pinot could also go if he's feeling any better, but I'd rather see him make some progress before backing him. 

Gianluca Brambilla, Carlos Betancur, Sylvain Chavanel, Jarlinson Pantano, Pierre-Luc Perichon and others like these could also be involved, we could get a break of 10-20 going on the first climb, it might pay to sprinkle a few bets around.  

And if it does come to a GC battle, if they reel in the break on the final climb, it will be a very interesting finale - from the top of the Peyra Taillade they descend for more or less 31kms, with a few kick-ups along the way, but it should be fast and furious. There could be an opportunity for someone like Romain Bardet to attack over the top of the Peyra Taillade and down the descent, the little Cat 4 of the Saint Vidal might see some of the chasers look at each other and wait for someone else to take up the chasing, and he might stay away. If it does come to a GC bunch sprint, look for Uran and Martin to outsprint Froome, Contador, Quintana and Bardet. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Lilian Calmejane at 16/1

0.5pts win on Warren Barguil at 12/1 with Will Hill

0.3pts each-way on Serge Pauwels at 33/1

0.3pts each-way on Alessandro De Marchi at 33/1 with Bet365

0.2pts each-way in Michael Albasini at 150/1 with PP

Matchbets:

De marchi to beat Roche and Naesen to beat Gilbert - 2pts at 1.6/1 with Will Hill

Pauwels to beat Buchman - 2pts at 5/6