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Published on Tuesday, 21 July 2015 00:09

TDF Stage 17

Digne Les Bains to Pra Loup

Wed July 22nd, 161kms 

Back we go to the scene of the superb victory of Romain Bardet in the Critérium de Dauphiné back in June. This is an exact replica of the stage 5 of the Dauphiné, when Bardet attacked a few hundred meters from the top of the Col d'Allos and descended like a madman to put over a minute between him and the chasing pack. 

He started the climb to Pra Loup with 1'20" from the main peloton, which was led by Team Sky for Froome, followed by Nibali, Talansky, Meintjes, Van Garderen and co. By the top of the climbing he was 'pedalling squares' but held on to a 36" advantage on the line. Chris Froome attacked and distanced Van Garderen and Intxausti, but TVG never panicked and rode a steady tempo all the way until the 200m to go mark, where he collared Froome and rode right by him, putting 4" in to him on the line. 

This could be the first battleground in operation Maillot Jaune - the first attempt to destabilise Froome and try to steal some time back from him. Nibali, Quintana, Van Garderen, Valverde and Contador - they could and should all try to take it to him as soon as possible. Only five stages remain to take him on, they shouldn't waste an opportunity like this - Bardet stole 40" on him in the Dauphiné, his rivals should bear that in mind. 

What a strange stage today. Incredibly, out of all my picks, not one of them got in the break, yet Nibali did exactly what I thought he might do and ‘won’ the stage. Pity that he was racing for 24^th place instead of 1^st place. He did pick up 38” on the GC though, which, although is small, showed that he is up for the fight and could be a problem for Froome in the Alps, stirring things up. It was a superb victory for Ruben Plaza and Lampre, who have been largely anonymous in the Tour up until now. Once again Sagan was left ruing the lack of a team-mate, or any rivals who were willing to work and chase, as it was left to him to take it up on the descent. And what a descent it was by him, he threw caution to the wind and descended like a demon, but it wasn’t enough.

Behind, Froome was comfortable on the descent, but a careless bit of riding by Barguil saw him overshoot a corner and shoulder Geraint Thomas, with Thomas going headfirst in to a concrete telephone pole. Thankfully he was able to get up and carry on, not losing too much time, declaring afterwards that he was ‘fine, just a bit shook up’

With Pete Kennaugh going home today, as his illness got the better of him, the last thing Froome wanted was to lose Thomas as well. A pretty poor day bets wise, but at least stakes were small and two of the match bets landed to lighten the damage somewhat.

I know I keep going on about it and I am biased because of my position (which I keep adding to!) but I really think this race isn’t over yet. Froome is losing key men and today they were cooked again at the top of the climb and he was left isolated and open to attacks. This could be a much bigger problem in the coming days, with a resurgent Nibali, a defiant Contador, a patient Quintana and a confident Van Garderen ready to take him on in the next four stages.  

The Route

After a relatively easy opening 34kms or so they hit the first climb of the day, the Col des Lèques, a 6km rise at an average of 5.3% which tops out with 40kms gone. This is quickly followed by the Col de Toutes Aures, which although the profile shows it rising for almost 20kms, the official climb is just 6.1kms at an easy 3.1%. After a quick 11km descent they now start heading north and start the climb of the Col de la Colle-Saint-Michel, which again, drags on for 18kms, but the official climb is 11kms at 5.2%, still a reasonably long climb and should start to split things up.

After another fast 10km descent they start on the foothills of the big climb of the day, the Cat 1 Col d'Allos, which is almost 35kms from the bottom, but given an official distance of 14kms at 5.5%. Will we see a repeat attack from Bardet or someone else at the top to try to put Froome under pressure on the descent? The final descent of the day is a very twisty 16kms long that could see a furious plunge again by some in an attempt to stay away to the finish.

The final obstacle is the Cat 2 climb to the summit finish at Pra-Loup, a pretty steady 6.2kms at an average of around 6.5%. It winds its way up the hill with four switchbacks, but the last 2kms are pretty straight and steady, averaging closer to 7.1%. If a good climber can get the jump again and get 30" or a minute by the start of the climb to Pra-Loup, they could hold on like Bardet did to the finish. 

Contenders and Favourites

The question is, will we see a similar sort of move decide the outcome to this stage? The first question is, will it be a break again, or will the GC men fight it out? This is a really hard stage, and comes the day after the rest day. There are a lot of tired riders, which was evident in today's stage, when the peloton took a day off and came in nearly 20 minutes down, and the guys who were up front looked pretty tired climbing the Col de Manse. Just look back at the last stage after the last rest day - Froome ripped the race to pieces and there were riders all over the mountain, with big time gaps.

I think a break will go, but I think it is now time for the likes of Tinkoff-Saxo, Movistar, BMC and Astana to start fighting back. There is no point in waiting, there are 4 or 5 guys against one in Froome, they need to keep attacking him and putting him under pressure. The pushing at the front by these teams should be enough to ensure the break is probably reeled in on the Col d'Allos, it is a very, very long climb. It should be all teed up then for the GC men to do battle up and down the Allos, with a possible final battle on the Pra-Loup.

There is a possibility that we will see the other guys stay with Froome this time, he clearly is going very well, but others seem to be getting stronger as Froome's team is getting weaker. It will be interesting to see how Thomas is after his crash on Monday. In the Dauphiné, Froome attacked and got a gap on Van Garderen and the rest, but he never really pulled away, so much so that Van Garderen caught him with 150m to go and sailed right by him. In the end, Yates, Meintjes, Talansky and co. were only 10-15 seconds back on him. 

Can Romain Bardet repeat his audacious attack again? It will be very difficult, he is unlikely to be let go so easily this time. He has been riding very well though, and if he had held back instead of attacking so early on the climb to Mende on Saturday he may well have won the stage. After suffering from heatstroke earlier in the race he is now looking a lot better and is sure to at least try to get away again, seeing as he now knows how to descend this climb so well. He claimed after that win in the Dauphiné that he had not reconned the descent but I don't believe it for a minute, he descended like a man that knew every metre of it. 

Alejandro Valverde is just 7/1 for the stage with Bet365, 6/1 elsewhere. He is looking lively, he is looking strong and it is a sort of stage finish that he could do well on, the road flattens out a little bit in the last 100m to make it perfect for his sprint should he get there at the finish with the leaders. 

Vincenzo Nibali was excellent today, attacking on the Col de Manse when there was a bit of a lull after a Contador move. I had predicted he would do it, it was just a shame that the race was over at that point. He could easily try the same sort of move Wednesday coming to the top of the Allos, Froome will be watching Quintana and the other guys who are closer to him on the GC and he could be let go again. He may get one or two guys go with him like Robert Gesink or Bardet. He is very short I feel at 6/1, he's as short as 9/2, so is clearly fancied to put in a big ride. He said in an interview today that he was proud of what he did in today's stage and that he is going to try his hardest to win a stage, but that he has picked up a little bit of a cold - one to watch for more news on maybe over the rest day.

It's strange to see Chris Froome such a big price given how he has destroyed the field in the past, 12/1 looks massive. As I said though, this isn't a perfect stage for him, he should come under attack repeatedly, even on the descent and he might back off a little - no point losing the race to try to save 30 seconds when you have over 3 minutes on your nearest rival. He could struggle on the descent, and his rivals know this - Nibali, Valverde, Bardet, they will all push it hard down the descent. With Thomas's crash today, Thomas may also take it a bit easier on the descent, so Froome could be isolated. If he does manage to stay with the leaders, there is the possibility of course that he could spin away from them again, but the gradient might not be steep enough for him to really kill them.

Joaquim Rodriguez ranges from 14/1 to 10/1 and Purito has surprised me with his two stage wins so far in this race. One was just sheer, trademark Purito, a blast from the past as he charged up the Mur de Huy, the second was guts and determination to get in the break and leave the break, a break which contained some pretty decent riders. I don't think we'll be seeing a repeat here though, he might try to get in the break of the day to scoop up KOM points, there are two Cat 3s and a Cat 2 climb on the way to the Cat 1 Col d'Allos, if he can lead over the Allos, he could move in to the lead in the competition.

He did take it easy on Monday, coming in 30 minutes down so he may have something in mind..I am not sure that he'll get to the top of the Allos out front though, and the alternative, where he stays with the pack and tries to win it at the finish, I'm not sure it's steep enough for him and he will not outsprint Valverde at the finish. 

Thibaut Pinot has been finding his legs a little lately, and could well fancy a go at a long attack on the Allos, he seems to go better the longer the climb. We all know about his issues with descending in the past, but he seems to be better these days. He did fall away quite easily today though on the Col de Manse, I'm not sure if he's still up to the level required to ride away from Sky, Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo in full drive.

Alberto Contador may surprise me, but he just looks sub-par at the moment, I don't think this is a climb for him, he may wait until later in the week when the others might be a bit more fatigued. I'm not sure that this is the day we will see Nairo try something either, it's just not a hard enough finish.

You're then getting in to the types of guys who will either a) go on the break of the day, and might just make it, or b) attack out of the leader's group on either the descent of the Allos or on the ascent of the Pra-Loup if it's still together. Guys like Ryder Hesjedal, who will be looking forward to this stage I think, it suits his style and he could go in the break. Jacob Fuglsang will be an interesting one, as he could be sent on the attack early on the Allos, or even in the break of the day, in order for Nibali to have some assistance on the Pra-Loup if he attacks on the descent. But if that's not the plan, he will be needed to work for Nibbles, so in neither scenario can I see him winning. 

Dan Martin has been sick and has been suffering, but after taking more or less 3 or 4 days off, along with the rest day, maybe he'll be after getting his mojo back. This stage suits him very well too, with a late attack on the Allos, a 'Kamikaze' descent and a climb to the finish that isn't too long, or too steep, a bit like the stage to Cauterets where he did very well. It looks like he is being backed a little, he is still available at 28/1, but it might be worth waiting to read his Irish Times column on Tuesday and Wednesday morning to see what the latest is with his health situation. 

Tony Gallopin is really starting to struggle now and I can't see him being up there as they crest the Allos if the GC teams really look to stretch it out. Louis Meintjes rode very well on this climb in the Dauphiné, finishing in 6th place, just behind Simon Yates. Both of these guys could go well tomorrow too, although Simon has been under the weather of late, and finished 12 minutes behind the Froome group today. Rafal Majka seems to be going well, if he is keen on going after the KOM jersey again he could go in the break of the day again, but there is the danger of course he'll be working with Kreuziger and Rogers to look after Contador.

Robert Gesink and Bauke Mollema are two similar kinds of guys who have been going ok, but not great of late, but they are the kinds of guys who might just be let slip the net with a late attack on the Allos - it's not a very steep climb and is pretty steady, the type of climb that they can power along on. Rafal Valls, Steven Kruiswijk and Warren Barguil are other guys who could go well on this stage, but I think that a win is going to be out of their reach. 

So who wins? That's a good question.. I think though that we will see attacks off the top of the Allos but it's possible they may be pulled back on the final climb as the pace is going to be very high, it will need to be a full-blooded, kamikaze descent. Nibali looks like a good pick for the descent attack, he seems to be going well, but caution might be advised with his cold. Dan Martin has a good chance also if he is feeling better, and if it comes to a GC men's sprint, the Valverde wins. One thing to keep in mind though is the forecast is for thunderstorms in the afternoon and it could make for an even more tricky descent off the Col d'Allos, one that Froome might back off from.

I've had a tiny bet on Dan Martin so far on Betfair, as his price was much bigger than with the bookies, I've averaged 40/1 on just over 0.2pts, trying to get some more at a bigger price. (I have now added another 0.2pts at 50/1, happy with that for a speculative punt on his wellbeing. 

Update: 21/07/2015 - Chris Froome is being backed in the last 24 hours, 14/1 in to 12/1 on Betfair, 12/1 to generally 9/1 with the bookies. Looks like some think that Sky are just going to give a big two fingers to the controversy of the numbers, the wattage, the press conference shambles  and so on and Froome is just going to kick on and kill them all tomorrow. I can't have it though, especially at that price, with a wet descent. Valverde is rock solid at 7/1, Nibali has been backed from 11/1 to 9/1 on Betfair, is now closer to 7/1 from the 9/2 he was a few days ago. There is confidence behind Nibali it seems so maybe this 'cold' story isn't as bad as first feared and that has twisted my arm to go for him.

I've added a few small speculative bets on some outsiders too, but given how hard it is to predict what might happen on this stage, especially given it's the day after the rest day, stakes are quite small. Emu Buchmann has done fantastically well already this year, he could fancy a go tomorrow at 250/1, Alexander Geniez and Bob Jungels are also two possible long shots for the break. Also, Tejay is just too big at 80/1 on a mountain he has done well on not so long ago, he may not have been going the greatest in the climbs lately, but at 80/1 he's worth a small go, he might just hang in there on the wheels and get towed along behind Froome for maybe 2nd or 3rd place, behind Nibali! 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Vincenzo Nibali at 8.4/1 on Betfair

0.4pts win on Dan Martin at 45/1 average on Betfair, take the 55 on Betfair now.

0.2pts each-way on Tejay Van Garderen at 80/1 with Bet365

0.25pts ew on Rafal Majka at 25/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

0.2pts ew on Louis Meintjes at 80/1 with Bet365

0.1pts ew on Emanuel Buchmann at 250/1 with various

0.1pts ew on Bob Jungels at 200/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

Talansky to beat Frank - 1.8pts at 5/6 (Talansky rode well on this climb in the Dauphiné)

Quintana to beat Contador, Rolland to beat Pinot and TVG to beat Gesink - 2pts on the treble at 11/4 with Bet365.