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- Published on Wednesday, 02 September 2020 18:54
TDF 2020 Stage 6
Le Teil - Mont Aigoual
September 3rd, 191kms
We've had our first summit finish, but it didn't really show us much about Roglic's rivals really, as it just turned in to a sort of 30-rider team time trial and a sprint finish, won by the strongest man on the strongest team with all the main protagonists strung out in a line behind him.
Most of the main characters were in the mix though, but you'd expect them too as it wasn't too hard a finish really, not that steep anyway. Bernal, Pinot, Mollema and Porte were only just holding on, but they held on and didn't lose any time. The only GC men who lost some time were Buchmann and Mas who just lost contact in the last kilometre and lost 9", and Carapaz, Higuita and Martinez who lost 28". Fabio Aru and Warren Barguil lost over a minute, but I don't think GC placings are their high priority in this race.
It's only stage 6, but in this Vuelta-like running of the Tour we have our second summit finish of the race already, with 36kms of climbing at the end of a long flat day heading south-west. There's barely a ripple for 144kms, then a Cat 3 bumps kicks off the final section, culminating in the run up to the Cat 1 Col de la Lusette.. But the climbing doesn't end there, there's actually another 8.4kms of climbing to the finish line at Mont Aigoual.
Stage 5 Review
A strange start to the day when there were almost no attempts to go in the breakaway, and any attempts that were made were shut down quickly by Thomas De Gendt who was marshalling the front of the peloton. The sprint teams wanted to keep it together for the intermediate sprint, so breakaway men knew they were just wasting their energy trying to go in the break before that was passed after 47kms.
But as it turned out, there was no breakaway, probably the first time ever in the Tour we have seen no breakaway, but instead we had one of the most boring four hours of racing imaginable. It finally got a bit lively with 10kms to go, and the final run to the finish caught out a lot of sprinters as I thought it might. In fact it caught all the sprinters out, as it was the sensational Wout Van Aert who surged to the stage win ahead of Cees Bol and Sam Bennett in the end.
It was incredible once again from Wout, after blowing the race to pieces on the climbs yesterday, he got a chance today to go for the stage, seeing as the stage was so easy in the end, and he seized the opportunity with both hands. Always close to the front in the last kilometer, he picked the right wheel to be on behind the Sunweb train and had no trouble overcoming Bol in the uphill drag to the line.
Bol was unlucky, Sunweb had done a brilliant leadout for him, with Pedersen screaming at the man in front of him to go faster before taking up the pulling himself with 300m to go. He then pulled off to his right, allowing Bol up the inside and forcing WVA to come around the long way, but not even that could stop him.
Bennett got it wrong again, plain and simple. He should have not taken Sagan's wheel, and instead should have focused on the Sunbweb leadout, or even WVA - the clue that he was feeling good and going to sprint was the fact that he was actually ahead of Bennett and Sagan.. Instead, although he looked to be cruising and moving about positions with ease, Bennett chose to stay behind Sagan, one of the slowest sprinters there at the moment.
Maybe he was just obsessed with finishing in front of him so as to take the green, after winning the intermediate sprint, but it was a bad decision - he should've known better.. but maybe those were the team orders and it was the DQ got it wrong, it looked like he was determined to stick with Sagan.
The good news of course is that he is now in green and is now the 5/6 favourite to take green, from the 4/1 we backed him at. If you wanted to, you could trade out of your stake now around 5/4 on Betfair and have a nice free bet on him, or else maybe back Sagan at 5/4 to hedge the bet, it's unlikely to be anyone else, barring accidents.
Ewan and Nizzolo were a disappointment, Nizzolo more so, I had a feeling it might be messy and it was the right thing to stay away from the top two, I just didn't expect WVA to be able to do that the day after ripping the race to pieces on the climb.. Stuyven did indeed sprint for Trek, it was his turn today, he took a decent 5th place, with Mezgec a surprise in 6th to me, first decent sprint from him in a long while.
Most disppointing of all though has to be Trentin, on a finish he should have liked he was nowhere to be seen, finishing down in 38th place. Viviani continues his dreadful Tour, coming home in 97th, over 2 minutes down. I'm not really sure what is the point in him continuing, he may as well cut his losses and leave and try to prepare for the Giro instead.
Route
A run south-west that takes them in and out of five different departements along a flat route for roughly 157kms. There is the little Cat 3 of 2kms at 7.3%, but they don't start climbing proper for another 10kms. The final climb goes up in three steps - first up is the Col des Mourezes, a Cat 3 hill of 6.1kms at 4.8%. It is a very steady drag, just an easy warm-up.
It then flattens out and descends slightly for 3kms before starting on the main event, the Cat 1 Col de la Lusette, which is 11.7kms at 7.3%. This one is a lot harder, and it gets harder the further up the climb you go. After a steady opening 5kms at 6.5%, it gets much steeper - hitting 8.8% for the next 2kms, then 2kms at 11%. It eases back a little to 7.9% for the next kilometre before flattening out a little to 3% for the last 1.7kms.
It is an important summit for two reasons, KOM points on the Cat 1 climb, and bonus seconds for the GC. They then roll along a plateau for 5kms before the final pull to the line at Mont Aigoual. The final 8kms are pretty easy though, just 4% average gradient, with a section from 3.5 - 1.5kms to go that is actually just 2.7% in gradient. The last 500m are a little bit more challenging at 5.5%.
The road zig-zags it's way towards the summit, heading mostly east, but then there's one tight hairpin with 1200m to go and they head back the opposite direction, almost doubling back on themselves. There's one last turn left just 100m from the line, where if it's tight and a few riders are sprinting for the win, you will want to be hugging the left-hand barrier for the shortest way around to the finish.
The weather is going to be perfect, blue skies and about 16-17 degrees. The wind will pick up as the day goes on and will be a westerly wind of around 9-11mph in the afternoon, meaning it will be a tailwind for most of the last 5kms, until the turn in the last kilometer, where it will become a headwind until 100m to go. It could mean that whoever launches an attack in the last kilometer could run out of gas as they approach the last 100m and could be mugged for the win by someone who was sitting in his slip-stream.
Route Map
Profile
Final Climbs
Finish Map
Contenders and Favourites
This could be a very short preview, Roglic wins again, right? Well the finish just looks perfect for him again, and you know that Jumbo are going to rip the legs off everyone on the Lusette, leaving probably the same first 20-25 guys from stage 4 to fight it out over the final drag to the finish.
Has the break a chance? Probably not, as the run in for 150kms is almost dead flat and will be hard to build up a big lead, as DQS, JV and maybe even UAE and Cofidis will look to try to keep them under a tight leash in order to give their men a chance at the stage finish, as well as the bonus seconds on offer at the top of the Lusette. And if the break even has 3 minutes or so starting the first part of the final climb, that will rapidly disappear once J-V start tearing it up on the Lusette.
So, unless someone attacks on the Lusette from the peloton, then we will see a similar sort of finish to what we saw on stage 4. Will someone attack? Yes, I would think we might see some moves by guys just outside the top 20 who have lost time already and might get a small bit of freedom to go - guys like Carapaz, who is 45" down might fancy launching off the front in order to throw the cat amongst the pigeons and try to unsettle the JV train, if he can get over the top with 30-40" it could be a job pulling him back on the last part.
But the last part is quite long to stay solo, even if you have a tailwind, it's 8kms uphill at 4%. This might put a lot of guys off attacking on the Lusette, unless you get a collaboration of 3 or 4 strong guys who get away and work well together and J-V run out of men or power near the top and reign in their chase a little..
It's unlikely we'll see most of the favourites attacking early.. The likely suspects like Quintana, Bernal, Pinot, Mollema and Porte are likely to want to just sit in and follow and stay in contention in the GC for as long as possible. Quintana looked a lot better than I expected on Tuesday, but he's likely to keep it calm for now. Bernal didn't look great, he really looked under pressure just to follow the wheels at the finish, he is urging 'patience' so I'm not sure we'll see him make a move yet.
Pinot, Mollema and Porte were also under a lot of pressure just to stay in the front group, I can't see any of them attacking either. Guillaume Martin looked good though and had a go, he didn't get very far though as Sepp Kuss just rode back up to him in about 30". It will be hard for him to get a gap now they know he's a danger in the GC.
Miguel Angel Lopez looked like he fancied a late attack, but got boxed in on the corner just as Roglic jumped and had to slow a lot, but still ended up in 6th. I am not sure he will attack on the Lusette, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him attack later on though in the closing kilometres, maybe even in the last 500m and maybe he'll have more luck this time. He's one I have on the shortlist for this stage.
Adam Yates also was a bit on the limit the last day, he was disappointing from the point of view of the expectations that were heaped upon him after his impressive showing on stage 2. He was not close enough to the front and looked to be in the red coming in to the last 500m, he was never able to get in a blow at all on Rogla, finishing in 10th. Will we see him jump early on the Lusette and hope to get a gap over the top?
It's possible, depends on who JV have left and how hard the pace is. He might have to wait until they are down to just Kuss at the front and try to put him under pressure.. But Kuss looks to be going supremely well, so it's going to be a big ask to get away from him.
Maybe M-S will try the 1-2? Esteban Chaves was grimacing and gurning hanging on at the back, but he did finish with the leaders which was great to see. Maybe he will attack first to try to string things out and tire out JV when they have to lift the pace to chase, and then Yates counters? We might have to wait until he loses some time on the GC to be let go, he's still a danger while only 17" back.
The one rider that seemed to be going as well as Roglic in the last kilometer on Tuesday was his compatriot Tadej Pogacar. He looked comfortable and moved smoothly in to position, but like everyone else, when Rogla kicked, he had no answer. Based on that showing though, and if we get a similar finish, which I think we will, then Pogacar is sure to be close to him again.
Prices are out now, and the 7/2 on Roglic looks a great bet to me - I was expecting him to be about 2/1 or less, so 7/2 looks worth taking. He is clearly the strongest on a finish like this and JV are sure to ride to set him up for it again. Alaphilippe might be close, he's going to be angry after being penalised 20" today and losing the jersey, but I don't think he has the sprint on a finish like this to beat Rogla. He's not a bad price though at 10/1, he could be close.
Pogacar is 14/1 with Betway, 11/1 with Unibet and that looks a good e/w bet again like on Monday - he seems to be closest to Pogacar in terms of form and ability and might just chase him home again.
Looking at the prices though, the bookies think the break have a chance of making it, as after the top 3 in the betting, it then switches to breakaway candidates. Alessandro De Marchi - 18/1 - we backed him a few days ago, he didn't even try to get in the break. Jesus Herrada - 18/1 - he's now 6'13" down on GC, so far enough to be given some room, but not far enough to be allowed take a big lead and possibly the yellow. He's an infrequent winner though and I don't think his form is good enough to be backing him at that price.
Lennard Kamna has had a bumpy start to the Tour, and sits 19'19" down on GC.. 20/1 looks a stupid price for a guy who has struggled in the opening week and a guy that took his first win ever only this year in the Dauphiné. Let's see how he goes and he might be a better bet in the coming weeks once he's recovered a bit more.
Thomas de Gendt, Nicolas Roche, Tiesj Benoot, Pierre Latour, Ilnur Zakarin, Nicholas Edet, Nans Peters - of those guys, Zakarin makes a little appeal, only for the fact that they have to descend to the stage win, he's bound to blow it there. Not sure De Gendt will go, but if he is, I'm not sure he'll go all the way to the win. Benoot said he had good legs yesterday when he crashed, but he's still recovering too, so I'll give him a bit longer before backing him some time in the coming stages.
Nans Peters and Pierre Latour could go, but Latour is less than 4 mins down so probably not him, Peters is 36 mins down, he might fancy it - 66/1 might be worth a shot. I'm also going to give Hermans and Muhlberger another go at the prices.
It's likely to be another GC shootout though I think, with Roglic the man to be on, but Pogacar and Superman Lopez could be close again. I'm backing Pogacar to finish in the top 3 and Lopez each-way as he's so big, and will wait for in play to back Roglic, if it looks like coming back together I'd take 2/1 or so. He's as big as he is it looks like as the bookies give the break a chance of making it.
UPDATE: Adding Toms Skujins at 300/1 for the stage on Betfair and at 22/1 to be best placed Trek rider with Betway, I hear he's going to try to get in the break today. If the break makes it he could be first Trek man home... I don't think he'll win the stage though, so maybe lay out of our stake should he make the break and drops to 20/1 or something. Small stakes for fun though..
Also Nico Roche has said in his newspaper column that finishing 12th and 14th in the Tour was great and all but he'd trade them both for one stage win.. and will be on the attack.. hence his ridiculous price of 20/1.. I can't back him at that price though, a decent climber with him will beat him and someone with a decent kick at the end will beat him too.
Recommendations:
Back Roglic in play, or if you can't bet in running a small 1pt win bet at 7/2
2pts on Pogacar to finish in the top 3 at 11/4
0.5pts e/w on M A Lopez at 40/1 with Betway or Bet365
0.5pts win on Nans Peters at 80/1 with Unibet
0.5pts win on Gregor Muhlberger at 80/1 with unibet
0.5pts win on Ben Hermans at 80/1 with Bet365
0.5pts on Toms Skujins to be best-placed Trek rider at 22/1 with Betway
0.2pts win on Toms Skujins at 300/1 on Betfair to trade
Matchbets
Buchmann to beat Mas, Mollema to beat Uran and Lutsenko to beat Schachmann - 2pts at 43/20 with Unibet
Roglic to beat Alaphilippe and Lopez to beat Mollema - 2pts at evens with Bet365
Add Pogacar to beat Martin at 4/9 to make it a 2/1 treble - 2pts