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Published on Friday, 28 August 2020 00:23

TDF 2020 Stage 1

Nice - Nice

August 29, 170kms

The Grand Depart of the 2020 Tour de France will see a lot of riders on familiar roads, with so many pros living in and around the Nice/Monaco area of France. It's supposed to be a day for the sprinters, but with lots of hills out on the course, will we see them all at the finish?

It's a strange situation we find ourselves in for sure, with the start of the Tour de France coming later than when the Vuelta is normally getting going. No Giro form to go on, only a handful of races, riders crashing all over the place in the races we have seen and some riders we've barely seen at all. Riders come here fresher than usual in some cases, with no Giro/Tirreno/Spring Classics in their legs, and with so few opportunities in this shortened season, competition is going be be fierce. 

But here we are and we have to try to figure out how things are going to go today, and over the next three weeks.. as if this game wasn't hard enough! We're just going to have to take it one day at a time and try to make the most out of the info we have to hand.. it might be we see some strange results and some disappointments along the way, but hopefully also we can see who is going well and who is not and adapt our strategies and picks to try to take advantage of situations as they arise. 

Just to reiterate though, in case some of you glossed over or didn't even read the subscription page, the reason why I have reduced the fee to £30 from £35 last season is that I am moving house on the 17th/18th of September and I might have to miss a day or two of previews if I'm overly tied up. I'll still try to get something out if I can, but I felt it was only fair to reduce the fee if I can't offer a full service. 

The Route

A route that sees the riders do a small loop twice north of the city of Nice, and then a larger loop mostly on the same roads, giving any fans that do come out several chances to see the race pass. The race starts with a long neutralised section that takes them north out of the city and up past the KOM at the Cote de Rimiez, and they start climbing right from the flag drop. 

It will tempt out some to get in the break to try to take the first KOM jersey of the race, as there are two more passages of the Cote de Rimiez (Cat 3, 5.8kms at 5.1%) to be done on the 48km circuit. Each time they pass through the finish line on the Promenade des Anglais before heading north again in to the hills. 

The third time up to Aspremont they veer off right and start on a larger loop that takes them over the uncategorised climb to Levens, but once they are over that it's dowhill for the next 30kms until they approach the coast in Nice. It's then a long, flat, fast 5kms dash to the finish line. There is the prospect of afternoon thunderstorms and a wet finish, with rain forecast from 3pm onwards. They should also have a tail/cross-wind coming at them as they race towards the finish, so it should be extremely fast. 

Contenders and Favourites

There are not a lot of opportunities for the sprinters in this year's TDF, so even though this is a hilly stage, we should see the sprinters' teams do their best to pull it back together for a bunch gallop. There are almost 40kms left to run after all after the last climb, and in fact, the second part of the climb to Levens is pretty easy, just 1.4% for 8.5kms, so the chase will be well and truly on as soon as they get over the Cote de Rimiez for the last time with 59kms to go. 

Sam Bennett and Caleb Ewan shared favouritism in the early prices at 9/4, with Peter Sagan a big jump up to 9/1 after that. It shows the lack of sprinting talent in the race though when you have Cees Bol 4th favourite at 10/1.. 

It is also a reflection of how Elia Viviani has fallen off the radar this season, with an 11/1 quote about the rider who took the first non-crash affected sprint in last year's Tour on stage 4 to Nancy and finished the season really strongly in August with wins in the Ride London, Hamburg Classic and the Euro Road Race Champs. 

Sam Bennett has been hit and miss again this season, brilliant one day, not so hot the next, but you would think that this is one race he'll have been looking forward to for a very long time. He's not done the Tour since 2016, when he crashed and badly damaged his fingers in the very first stage sprint. He finished the race as the Lanterne Rouge, but even getting to Paris was a massive achievement, given the injuries he suffered, he could barely hold the bars. 

He is back now though with a clear goal for DQS, after years of being snubbed by Bora with Peter Sagan taking centre stage at the Tour. He started the season with a bang, winning the first stage of the TDU, beating Ewan and Viviani in the process, before taking the Race Torquay race and finishing an impressive 2nd on the Hatta Dam stage in the UAE Tour. 

He crashed out of the crazy Paris-Nice on stage 3, but after the restart he prepared for the Tour with some hilly races. He got hindered on stage 1 by a crash in Burgos, but took a stunning win on stage 3, soloing to victory up the hill inside the last kilometer. Milan-Sanremo didn't quite go to plan, he almost held on on the Poggio, but it was too much for him, especially when his team-mate Alaphilippe detonated the race from the front shortly after. Talks after were of him just having a bad day at the office rather than more serious concerns about his legs. 

He finished 2nd on the first stage of the Tour de Wallonie behind Caleb Ewan, but when one of the favourites for stage 3 he completely cracked in the latter stages on the Overijse, leaving Démare to beat Ewan. The next day though he pulled off a sensational 50/1 win, staying with the leaders when everyone thought he'd be dropped again, and he pulled off a superb sprint to rocket past the in-form Arnaud Démare in the last 50m. 

He's going to be nervous, of course, there's a lot of pressure on him with DQS all rallying around him in support of his search for his first TDF stage win. He has a superb team with him though for a stage like this, with Alaphilippe, Devenyns, Asgreen, Jungels, Declercq and Stybar immense engines to keep the break on a leash and reel them in for a sprint finish. 

Then Declercq, Jungels, Asgreen and Morkov will take over in the last 3kms, with Morkov the best of the bunch as last man. Bennett should go as late as possible to not give Ewan a chance to shadow him and pounce late, and if he does get the jump and a clear run, he will take a lot of stopping. 

Caleb Ewan will be his biggest danger of course, and with De Buyst, De Gendt, Degenkolb, Frison and Kluge, Lotto have a leadout that are capable of putting it up to DQS. Ewan is also in good form too, having taken the first stage in Wallonie ahead of Bennett in impressive fashion.. He didn't hit the wind until less than 100m to go and only hit the front with less than 50m to go but flew to the line.   

In his debut Tour last year, Ewan took until the 11th stage to notch his first win, but went on to claim a hat-trick of victories, and added another four podium places. He also finished 2nd in the points competition behind Sagan, thanks to his final stage victory. Will he be able to win at the first time of asking this year?

He will have Kluge, Gilbert, Frison, De Gendt, De Buyst and Degenkolb working for him in the last 3kms, sometimes even earlier, they tend to like to take it up a bit too early sometimes.. They don't take any crap from DQS or the rest in a train fight and Ewan is almost always delivered pretty expertly with 500m to go. 

Elia Viviani looks a big price at 14/1, given his pedigree, having won 5 stages of the Giro, 3 of the Vuelta, and stage 4 here last year. He's not had a great season so far though, with no wins yet to his name, he was even beaten by Bryan Coquard in a stage of the Route d'Occitanie. He did take 10 wins last year though, so he is sure to come good at some point, but it would be a bit of a gamble taking a punt on him in the first sprint stage. The team is built around looking after Guillaume Martin's chances in the GC, so he'll not be getting much help in the leadouts, but he prefers not to have a leadout in a hectic finale anyway. He'll be close, but I can't see him winning this against the top two.

Cees Bol is just 14/1 now, and I may have been a bit harsh on him earlier, he is turning in to a fine rider.. but 10/1 4th favourite for the first stage of the Tour when prices opened? He did win a stage of the Volta ao Algarve back in February, beating Modolo, Jakobsen, Kristoff and Viviani, but it was a pretty weak field of sprinters to be fair.

He has only raced once since coming back, and that was when he was well dropped in Milan Sanremo, and his results, good as some of them were last year, don't suggest to me he should be anywhere near 10/1 for this. 20/1 I might be half interested each-way. He does have Casper Pedersen here to lead him out though, and the word from Denmark is that he's a better leadout man than Mikael Morkov, that's saying something.. 

The thing I guess that the bookies are latching on to is that they have left Michael Matthews at home and taken Bol, and with the legs Matthews showed to win the GP Plouay at the weekend, they must think that Bol must be absolutely flying.. we'll soon find out. 

Wout Van Aert was also short in the betting at just 14/1 when prices opened I thought, but he's now down to just 8/1 in places, 10/1 with Bet365. The question is, will he be left off the leash, or will he be asked to behave himself and save energy in his role for the team? The team are saying that he is going to be pulling in the mountains (and they have a special, light bike for him for it), so that would suggest he might have to forego personal ambitiions like this.

But you know that Wout is a racer, and if he finds himself near the front with 1km to go, he is sure to give it a go.. I'm also hearing that Wout wants to go for yellow on stage 1, so expect it to be a tough stage out on the hills, and for him to be joining in with the sprinters at the finish!

Giacomo Nizzolo could do well in this Tour I think, he is looking exceptionally good at the moment, taking the Italian National Championships in fine style last weekend, with a smart and powerful sprint and followed it up with a superb win in the Euros this week. He also took a great win in that hectic stage 2 of Paris-Nice and a stage in the TDU earlier in the year. Very often the nearly man, we might see him enjoy some good results in this year's Tour. 

Bryan Coquard rode the best race I have seen from him in a very long time at the French Nationals last Sunday, he was the only one who was able to stay with Arnaud Démare when he jumped after Alaphilippe in the closing kilometres and worked with him to bring back Alaphilippe. He just didn't have the power at the end of it to take Démare, but the signs were good that he has really good legs at the moment, and I think he'll take a lot of heart from that and at 25/1 he might go close to a podium here. The 6/1 on him finishing in the top 3 looks ok to me. 

Luca Mezgec, Alexander Kristoff, Andre Greipel, Niccolo Bonifazio, Matteo Trentin and Mads Pedersen are others who could get involved, depending on how the cards fall, but it's unlikely they will be challenging for the stage win, unless an incident takes out the top three sprinters in the last kilometres. 

It does though look like it's going to be between those old rivals Ewan and Bennett, and the 11/4 from Skybet that they finish 1st and 2nd in any order actually looks quite tempting to me rather than a straight out bet on Bennett. That way we get paid out more than a straight up bet on him should it land, and still get paid if Bennett gets done by Ewan again in the sprint like the first stage in Wallonie and the 4th stage in the TDU.  Wout van Aert wants yellow though, so I think we need to keep himo onside just in case he pulls it off..

Recommendations:

2pts on the reverse forecast - Bennett and Ewan first two in any order with Skybet

1pt on Wout Van Aert to finish in the top 3 at 5/2 with Skybet

Matchbets

Bonifazio to beat Greipel and Trentin to beat Rojas - 2pts at 5/4 with Will Hill

Nizzolo to beat Sagan - 5/4 with William Hill, that's a pretty decent price, he's 5/6 with all the other bookies. Nizzolo is flying and the tough course will not trouble him at all. Sagan hasn't been great all season, Nizzolo might just have the form to win this, I think he could be in the top 5.