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- Published on Monday, 13 February 2017 23:17
Ruta Del Sol 2017
Wed Feb 15th to Sun Feb 19th
The Vuelta a Andalucia, or the Ruta Del Sol as it is also known, starts on Wed the 15th February, the second short stage race of the European season following the Vuelta Communitat a la Valenciana, won in fine style by Nairo Quintana.
The race attracts a mixture of genuine GC contenders like the 1-2 in 2015 with Froome and Contador doing tremendous battle in the mountains. Alberto Contador blew Froome away on one mountain stage to take what looked like an unassailable lead, only for Froome to come back and blow him away the next day and take the title by just two seconds.
And last year Alejandro Valverde took a superb win, coming from 8th place to first on the final day with a blistering attack on the final climb of the Penas Blancas, leaping over Tejay Van Garderen, who had taken the lead on the penultimate stage in the TT. Bauke Mollema's 2nd place on the final stage saw him leap up from 14th place to a podium spot in 3rd, whereas unfortunately my 16/1 each-way shot Jerome Coppel had a nightmare final stage and lost over 6 mins to see him give up the podium spot.
Valverde is back again this year looking to retain his title and Alberto Contador makes a return after skipping it last year to ride the Volta ao Algarve, in what will be his first start for Trek Segafredo. It's a better lineup than last year, when a lot of the better riders went to the Algarve or Oman, with the likes of Warren Barguil, Thibaut Pinot, Rigoberto Uran, Pierre Rolland, Ion Izagirre, Tim Wellens and Mikel Landa taking to the start line. In fact Sky have a very strong team here with Landa, Mikel Nieve, Christian Knees, Vasil Kiryienka, Diego Rosa, Woet Poels and David Lopez.
2016 Podium
| Rider | Team | Classification | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alejandro Valverde | Movistar | 17:41:10 |
| 2 | Tejay Van Garderen | BMC | at 26" |
| 3 | Bauke Mollema | Trek | at 52" |
The Route
An interesting route this year, the Queen stage comes very early, on only the second stage, with a short 12km time trial on the 3rd stage. The first stage sees them tackle a Cat 1 climb of 11kms just 19kms from the finish, perfect for strong late attacks. The rest of the route is hilly, but not too hard and we should see sprint finishes on stages 4 and 5.
With the worst of the climbing coming in the first two days and the TT on stage 3, it's likely the race will be decided from a GC point of view with two stages to go, but we should still see some exciting racing over the week. The TT is pretty short this year at only 12kms, that's 9kms shorter than last year's race, so it should play more in to Valverde's hands.
Stage 1
Stage 1
Rincón De La Victoria - Granada
Wednesday, February 15th, 155kms
The Ruta starts with a bang - the stage may be relatively short at 155kms, but they have packed a hell of a lot of climbing in to the very first day. They start in Rincón De La Victoria, run along the coast for 10km to Torre del Mar then head inland. They start climbing after 25kms and climb for 18.8kms in total, but after Lake Vinuela they start on to the categorised part of the climb, the Cat 1 Puerto de Zafarraya (11.7kms at 5.4%).
They continue heading north-east and tackle three more Cat 3 climbs in the next 35kms, ranging between 3-5kms, nothing too difficult, but will certainly break the rhythm of the peloton. They run along a plateau for the next 40kms until they come to the main challenge of the day, the Cat 1 Puerto de Monachil. The climb starts after 125kms and is 11.2kms at an average of 6.3%. There are sure to be a flurry of attacks on this climb as there are only 19kms to go once over the top, around 16kms of which are downhill.
The final 3kms are almost dead flat, as they run alongside the river towards the centre of Granada. There is a slight kink in the road with 300m to go but it shouldn't affect the outcome. The flat run-in gives chasers a chance if any solo riders only have a small advantage, but I've a feeling it will be a reasonably small group that will be fighting out this finish, maybe 30-40 guys at most.
I think the race will blow apart pretty early on here - with four climbs in 50kms, the non-climbers will feel the pinch as the GC mens teams will look to thin the race out ahead of the main climb. And then it will whittle down even further - 11.2kms at 6.3% average is hard after 125kms of racing, and it is sure to be raced pretty hard. Movistar and Trek are sure to look to put the pressure on and get rid of anyone who isn't 100%, and they will not want to take any remaining sprinters to the line either..
This all suggests that Alejandro Valverde has to be a strong favourite to take the honours on a stage like this. Movistar will blow it apart, he may even try attacking on the final climb like he did in Murcia, if he gets a small group go with him he probably wins, if he goes solo he'll probably hang on to the finish as it is downhill almost all the way to the finish.
There are two scenarios though that the Movistar DS will have to think about - the Queen stage is the next day.. so will Movistar take it easy, but hard enough to maybe reduce the group to 30 or 40 guys and take a chance on Valverde winning the sprint? Or do they go full gas, get him a gap and bonus seconds and then just ride to control it on the Queen stage so he can recover a bit for the time trial? The thing is, either way, he could well win the stage! But 11/8? Very short....
I don't think Alberto Contador is suited to this finish, I can't see him winning, and unless the battle on the climb becomes so tough that only a handful of climbers go to the finish together, he won't podium either. Thibaut Pinot won't be winning, nor will Mikel Landa, Rigo Uran, Joe Dombrowski and several others down the betting.
Other that could have chances though are Fabio Felline, Tim Wellens, Pieter Weening, Pim Ligthart and Sergio Pardilla. Fabio Felline may just be able to hang in there behind Contador, Irizar, Zubeldia and Hernandez and would be a definite challenger for Valverde for the stage, he may even be able to beat him in the sprint.. But the 11/4 doesn't even leave room really for an each-way bet.
Tim Wellens has been riding really well so far this season and may well be able to stay with the leaders, possibly even attacking if the pace isn't brutally hard. And he might go close in a sprint in a reduced group.. 8/1 third favourite though when the prices at Bet365 came out, so far they've priced it almost like I would.. 8/1 is very short too though.
Pieter Weening can attack from the lead group or can get involved in a reduced sprint too, 200/1 looks massive. Pim Ligthart tends to go well in early season, something he highlighted once again this year with 2nd place in stage 2 of Valenciana. He can hang in there over tough climbs, and can sprint at the end too, Roompot have two hands to play here potentially, and at 33/1 he's worth a go.
Sergio Pardilla might be like Felline and hang in there over the climb, he too would have a chance in the sprint, 150/1 looks good for small stakes. Bet365 have Bryan Coquard at just 14/1, I can't have that, he's not going to get over the climb. Simon Clarke and Georg Preidler could also go well, but at the prices though, I'm going to dabble in a few longshots with a small saver on Felline to win too.
Recommendations:
0.2pts each-way on Pieter Weening at 200/1
0.25pts each-way on Pim Ligthart at 33/1
0.15pts each-way on Sergio Pardilla at 150/1
0.5pts each-way on Tim Wellens at 8/1
2pt win on Fabio Felline at 11/4 (all with 365, the only bookie pricing the stage)
Also - a 2pt double on Valverde to win the overall here and Bardet to win in Oman - pays 15/4 with Skybet
Matchbets
None of the matchbets interest me at all.
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Stage 2
Stage 2
Torredonjimeno - Mancha Real
Thursday, February 16th, 177.9kms
Well what a stage that was today, all out war for the last 30kms, with Contador, Valverde, Izagirre, Landa, Rosa, Poels and the rest going at each other up the final climb, down the final descent and on the run in to the finish. Valverde was brilliant again, I should have just stopped writing after convincing myself that there was no one else worth backing today except for Valverde.. If he had been 5/2 or bigger I'd have backed him.. Izagirre looked very impressive too and I'm pretty hopeful he can land at least a podium spot.
Alberto Contador impressed too, being his usual aggressive self, but he just didn't have the power to maintain his attacks and they others came back at him time and again. Sky had three men up front at one stage with Poels, Landa and Rosa and Landa did his best to get away, but it was pretty limp and he eventually got dropped.. Pinot, Reichenbach, Uran and a few others yo-yoed back and forth between just getting back on and getting dropped again, but Reichenbach did get up for 3rd which was a great result for him.
Our 200/1 man Pieter Weening rode really well and at one point got me a bit excited as it looked like his group were about to catch the leaders, but then Bertie kicked again and he never got in, but still finished 11th on his own, just 24" down. No luck with any of the others, Felline was right up there in 3rd wheel as they hit the final climb, but he was working for Contador and pulled off.. He seemed to have been riding well though until he pulled off, maybe in hindsight they should have tried to work for and protect Felline for the sprint finish. Small loss here of 4pts, stakes were kept small and I stayed away from matchebets thankfully.
Valverde is looking strong for the GC though and Izagirre is right up there too, if he can stay right on Valverde's wheel he should at least podium thanks to the TT where he should do well. But Contador, Poels, Rosa and Pinot are still not out of it, it should be a great race for the rest of the week if the first day is anything to go by.
I realised today though that this race has no time bonuses going for it, I was very sure there were and thought I had even looked up the 'Libro de Ruta' rule book to make sure, but alas, I was wrong. It will make it a little harder for Valverde to win (he'd be 10" clear of Contador by now if there were bonuses) but I don't think it will stop him anyway.
Stage 2 Preview
There's no messing about in the Ruta Del Sol, a day after tackling two Cat 1 climbs they head straight to the Queen stage on only the second stage. They start on a loop to the south-east of Torredonjimeno - 20kms of rolling roads take them to the first climb of the day, the Alto Valle Puerto Viejo, a Cat 1 climb of 8.4kms at 5.3%, where we are sure to see a strong group of climbers make the break of the day.
After a quick descent they start climbing again after 40kms up an uncategorised climb (10kms at 2.1%) and head back down through the start town before heading north, then south-east over rolling roads for the next 75kms. After 129kms they reach the next categorised climb, the Cat 2 Puerto de Siete Pilillas Puerto Peña del Águila (7.1kms at 5.9%), then a 15kms descent and they start climbing again. The Puerto de Torres is long at 12.8kms, but this Cat 3 climb is pretty easy at just 2.6% average, but it's only a precursor to the final act.
After a fast 8kms descent they start on the final climb of the day, to the highest point of the race at 1,299m, the summit finish at Puerto Peña del Águila. The final climb is 5.3kms at a nasty 9.4% average gradient, with the middle part the steepest and it eases off a little for the last 3kms, which average 6.8%.
The road is mostly straight in the closing kilometres through a forested area and there is sure to be plenty of attacks over the last 5kms.
Alejandro Valverde will again have to be a hot favourite for this, he's clearly flying, has a strong team with him and will be hard to beat in an uphill sprint finish at around 6%.
Alberto Contador will probably have to go long on the final climb to try to win it, like he has done in the past here in Andalucia, and like he tried to do today.. he will poke and probe and try to get away, but he just didn't seem to have the power and the stamina to me to get away from the best guys here, he's far too short at 13/8, but he's a top 3 candidate for sure.
Ion Izagirre is another who can either go from afar on the final climb like Contador, or even wait for the sprint finish from a reduced group of favourites. I think he will be happy to just stay with the likes of Valverde like today though as he should be capable of beating his former colleague in the TT on Friday. If the chance presents itself to either attack late or win the sprint, he's capable of that too as he has good legs.
Thibaut Pinot - well we found out today that Pinot is still probably recovering from his illness, he was good, but not good enough.. it might have been a good leg-opener for him today, but I actually think it could be a similar day to today for him, dangling back and forth between the front groups as the pace ebbs and flows, but ultimately fails to stay with the race-winning moves.
Woet Poels another that is capable of hanging in there to take his chances in the TT the following day, but also is capable of a late attack. I am not sure he has the legs to drop all of these guys yet though, he was left behind for a while in today's stage, only getting back on thanks to Reichenbach's huge engine that time trialled him back in. Although he famously won a sprint in Liege-Bastogne-Liege a few years back, he may well be beaten by one or two in the gallop to the line like today, at 22/1 I'd rather be on him than Landa at 9/1.
Mikel Landa - could he have a free card to play again, with the others watching Poels? It's very possible, Sky often use that tactic of sending a foil up the road to make the others chase, but Landa's attacks didn't last too long today and he went out the back door.. I don't know why he is 9/1 third favourite.
Rigoberto Uran tends to take a while to get going in early season, his 7th place in the Queen stage of the Algrave last year, 28" behind Contador was the sort of performance I expected here though too, and he proved that today. He should be there or thereabouts, but he won't be attacking away off the front I think. He's good for a 6th to 10th I think.
Sebastian Reichenbach will be there or thereabouts in the top 20, if he rides as well as he did today he'll be in the top 10 maybe. This is a tougher ask though and he won't be given any rope now that he is where he is in the GC. Hugh Carthy might have a chance if he gets in a strong break that stays away, same for the likes of Tim Wellens, Daniel Navarro and Stef Clement. Bart de Clerq is one at a big price that might have an outside chance, he can climb well and has a bit of a kick on him at the end of a climb. He didn't finish that far off today so he might have a go tomorrow, 300/1 is huge..
Hard to see past Valverde again though, he looked strong and lively today, the way he bridged to Contador on his own was super impressive. The finish will suit him perfectly and the others didn't look strong enough to dispose of him today, I don't think they will tomorrow either.
Recommendations:
3pts win on Alejandro Valverde at 6/4 with Ladbrokes
0.2pts each-way on Bart de Clerq at 300/1 with Bet365
0.5pts each-way on Woet Poels at 22/1 with Bet365
Matchbets
Cink to beat Nieve - 2.2pts at 10/11
Navarro to beat Pardilla, Uran to beat Barguil and Reichenbach to beat Pinot - 2pts on the treble at 2.9/1 with 365
Bart de Clerq to beat Belda - 2pts at evens with 365
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Stage 3
Stage 3
Lucena - Lucena
Friday February 17th, 11.9kms ITT
Another tremendous stage today in the RDS, with Alberto Contador doing what Alberto Contador does best, Alejandro Valverde throwing in the towel and Thibaut Pinot coming back from his sickbed to pull off a sensational win. The race was blown apart on the final climb, with Sky and Trek using their numbers to whittle the pack right down heading to the last 5kms. After being initially gapped and looking like they were sliding out of contention, Valverde and Izagirre rallied, caught on to the Sky duo of Rosa and Landa and managed to limit their losses to a very manageable 5" to Contador.
It was a strange ride by Valverde, he tried to follow Contador and blew up, packing in the chase pretty quickly, but finished very strong when it eased off a little, 'winning' the sprint for 3rd, leaving Landa and Rosa in their wake. Woet Poels just couldn't go with them, but finished just behind them in 7th. Bart de Clercq finished 19th and won his matchbet, as did Cink, who once again impressed in 11th, ahead of Uran, Nieve and Barguil. The treble went down because of Pinot's surprise win though, even with Reichenbach finishing 8th, the other two in the treble had won.. Pinot was 2/1 to win that matchbet... so a small -2.4pt loss today, not too bad, our GC bets are still in play.
A day after the Queen stage and we come to yet another vital stage in deciding the outcome of this race, not just for the winner, but possibly the makeup of the the entire top ten. The weary legs will have to tackle an 11.9kms TT over rolling terrain that finishes with an uphill drag to the line.
The route is a loop that starts and finishes in Lucena, heading clock-wise to the south east of the town. The stage starts with a nasty pinch, a 1.3km climb away from Lucena that averages 7.6%. After that they descend gently for around 6.5kms, passing through the time check at 5.9kms, then the road rises again for another 2kms. with less than 2kms to go they descend again back down towards Lucena. The profile below seems to suggest there is a tough little kick up to the line, but it's nothing really, only about 800m at around 2-3% as you can see from the 'Last 3kms' profile below.
It's not that long ast only 11.9kms, it should only take them about 15 minutes, but after two tough days in the mountains so early in the season, some will find this particularly hard going. Of course there will be some who are targeting this TT and will have cruised around for the previous two days, but if you want to win this race you will need to be in good form on your TT bike as well as on the climbs.
One rider who looks to have cruised around so far and could do a good ride here is former World TT champion Vasil Kiryienka. He generally tends to go better over longer TTs, all his TT wins have been around the 50km mark, but he has gone well in shorter TTs too, including in Valenciana last year when he came 3rd behind Woet Poels and LL Sanchez on a hilly TT over 16kms. His TT'ing wasn't great last season, but then he came out with a storming ride in the World's to take 2nd behind Tony Martin. He is sure to be up there for Sky, and then go back to trying to help all the climbers on Saturday. Bet365 were 7/1 but Skybet have made him 10/1 and that's worth a shot I think
Ion Izagirre isn't a name that comes to mind very often when you think of the best TT'ers in the world, but he is quite a decent TTer. Current Spanish national TT champ, (he has also finished 2nd and 4th in the Nationals) and last year won the TT in the Tour de Suiise (beating Cancellara) and a short prologue in Romandie, beating Dumoulin.. He has also won a 14km TT in the Vuelta Asturias and was 3rd in the 7km prologue in the 2014 version of this race, beating Kiryienka, Wiggins and Porte.
He looks to be in great shape, he is challenging for a win here in the GC and this could be one of the biggest TTs of his season with the race on the line. I think (and hope) that he is capable of a big ride here and may well be challenging for stage honours. He did ok today, was just caught out by Contador's acceleration, but when he settled down to his rhythm he was much better and I don't think he went too much in to the red. He possibly rescued the GC with that late surge to the line. The bookies seem to think so, they make him 8/11 favourite now to win the overall, let's hope he does for our 10/1 bet..
Matthias Brandle is of course the former hour record holder, and a pretty decent TTer, he is the current, and three-times national TT champion of Austria. He recently finished 3rd in the 12km TT in San Juan, but I'm not sure whether to be impressed by that or not - he probably should have been beating Navardauskas and Mollema.. He has only ever won one other TT other than the Nationals, and that was a 7km prologue in the Belgium Tour, although he did beat Rohan Dennis. He was 2nd in the 40km TT in the Giro last year won by Roglic though and has finished in the top 6 thirteen times in TTs in the last 5 years.
Johan Le Bon has finished in the top 6 sixteen times in TTs and has been national TT champion of France twice in the past. It's been nearly 2 years since he last won a TT though, but last year he finished 2nd in the prologue of the Boucles de la Mayenne, but if he can't beat Bryan Coquard then it's not a great sign. His 2nd in the 10km TT in Tirreno last year though was a far better result, finishing just behind Cancellara, but ahead of Martin, Dowsett and Kiryienka. He's also part of the FDJ squad who improved their TT'ing dramatically last season, and if he can carry that sort of improvement in to this year he wil be one of the first five home.
Victor Campanaerts Is the current Belgian TT champion, and has been the U23 TT champion and U23 European Champion. He finished 2nd in the 4.5km TT of the Boucles de la Mayenne (behind Le Bon). He should go ok here too, but I'm thinking 4th to 10th maybe. Tobias Ludvigsson has not won a TT for nearly 3 years, but has pulled off some decent TTs in his time, but the fact he has been runner-up in the Swedish national TT championships three times and never won it shows his limitations. 4th to 6th at best I think, he's far too short to me at just 5/1.
Of the other GC men, Alejandro Valverde has a better TT on him than you might think, he was Spanish TT champion in 2014 after all. He has won short Prologues in 2013 and 2014 in this race, in 2014 beating Tom Dumoulin, Ion Izagirre, Vasil Kiryienka, Bradley Wiggins and Richie Porte, a pretty nice pile of scalps there. He always raises his game in this race and is battling for the win here, which will give him an extra few watts.
Alberto Contador has been riding well this week too, he has looked sharp. He has won 9 TTs in his career, more than any of the guys mentioned above and almost more than all of them put together. And despite the fact it looked like he was fading in his TT ability in recent years, he won the 16km TT in Pais Vasco last year, as well as the short TT in Critérium Du Dauphiné, beating Froome and Porte. But before that it had been 3 years since he even finished in the top 2 of a TT, and it was way back in 2009 when he last won one. He is 18/1 and he might just sneak on to a podium spot given the motivation he will have to put in a big ride for the GC.
Thibaut Pinot will also have the extra power that a stage win and the possibility of the overall motivating him, he could possibly pull off a big ride here too. He won the French TT championships last year and won the TT in Romandie and the Dauphiné, three great TT victories. He also finished 2nd in a TT over this distance in the Etoile de Besseges behind Jerome Coppel last year, but in the 16km hilly TT in Pais Vasco he finished 1'09" behind Contador, when finishing 6th. I think he is capable of a top 6 here, the motivation might take him to a podium spot, but I think he left a lot out on the road today and the 13/1 doesn't appeal.
Others that can go well? Anton Vorobyev, Marcin Bialblocki, Georg Preidler and Fabio Felline could go alright too, Felline in particular has been riding extremely well this week, but has been burying himself for Contador, which is a pity because I think he could have had a good race if he had ridden for himself. I can't see any of them troubling the podium though.. .
So - Ion Izagire is the 2/1 favourite.. very short, but he looks like he has a great chance here to power to the head of the GC. I fancy him for tomorrow, but seeing as we have him at 10/1 for the overall, I'm going to leave him for tomorrow's stage, just in case. vasil Kiryienka has been hiding away all week it seems to me, getting ready for this and his 10/1 might look a decent bet tomorrow, I think he's capable of a podium with no pressure on him.. Either that, or he comes absolutely nowhere.. so small stakes on him for an interest. Nothing else really appeals to me.
Also - just a note on the Algarve TT - I had word weeks ago that Ryan Mullen was targeting the TT in the Algarve and was in great shape. Skybet have odds on the stage and they make Tony Martin the odds-on favourite to take the stage, and rightly so, with Roglic second favourite, and Ryan Mullen was 16/1. I had a bet on him, so they cut him to 12/1, but I think he's still worth an each-way bet at that price.. They are only paying out two places though, so small stakes for an interest.
Recommendations:
0.75pts each-way on Vasil Kiryienka at 10/1 with Skybet
1pt each-way on Ryan Mullen at 12/1 with Skybet for the TT in the Volta ao Algarve
Matchbets
Felline to beat Gorka Izagirre, Ion Izagirre to beat Belda, Le Bon to beat Keizer, Reichenbach to beat Landa and Valverde to beat Poels - 2pts on the acca at 4.67/1 with 365
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Stage 4
Stage 4
La Campana - Sevilla
Saturday February 18th, 179.3kms
A shitty day to forget today with Ion Izagirre crashing out of the race. It was a shock to suddenly see 'Retired' come up on the screen in a TimeTrial, it's not what you'd expect. Kiryienka was piss-poor, but not sure many would have backed Campanaerts for the victory, even though I thought he might go well. It was a brilliant ride by Alejandro Valverde though to take the lead and it now looks like he is on track to land the win for us at least.
This is a strange stage, in that there are plenty of hills to get over, including three Cat 3 climbs, yet they all come in the first two thirds of the stage, with the last 60kms or so almost completely flat. Stage 2 in last year's race also finished in Sevlle and was won in a bunch sprint by Daniele Bennati, there's a good chance that today's stage will end in a bunch gallop too.
They start in La Campana to the north-east of Seville and roll along flat roads for 35kms, before they turn right and head north in to the hills. They take in 3 Cat 3 climbs in the space of 35kms, none of which are too long or too difficult, but strangely they have located a sprint point just after the third climb, at the top of a mountain peak after 90kms. After that it's descending over rolling roads for the next 40kms or so, but the last 40kms are almost completely flat, allowing any sprinters teams who may have lost touch on the three climbs to maybe regain contact in time for a bunch sprint, and for any breakaway to be possibly reeled in.
So - 11/10 Bryan Coquard - he wins tomorrow right? Well he does if it finishes in a bunch sprint, there are almost no sprinters here at all and he is easily the best here. If it is a sprint finish, he wins. Moreno Hofland can come close, but he's not on Coquard's level and hasn't had a brilliant start to the season, but he does have his new powerful Lotto-Soudal team with him and they will surely help Direct Energie in the chase over the last 60kms. Unless of course someone like Tim Wellens or TVDS has gone in the break, which isn't beyond the realms of possibility
Raymond Kreder and Fabio Felline could be close in a sprint too, as could Edward Planckaert at a big 50/1. But what about the break? It could well have a chance tomorrow - that lumpy opening 110kms will give the break plenty of opportunities to go up the road and build up a big lead. And if there are no GC threats in the break, Movistar and Trek will probably just roll along, keeping a decent, but not silly pace, and it will be up to Direct Energie to do the chasing. I think Lotto will put someone in the break, as they will fancy their chances and they will have that perfect excuse to not contribute to the chase.
If it is just Direct Energie chasing, and the break has 5 minutes or so coming on to the last 60kms, they might just hang on. So a few candidates for the break then at big prices - Tim Wellens is sure to try again, he just seems to be in such good form and went solo for miles on his own two days ago. He's 20/1, which isn't great, but he's the most likely candidate I can think of to try to go in the break. Georg Preidler has been on the attack too, he might try again at 80/1. Florian Senechal was on the attack on stage 1, he might try again for Cofidis, seeing as they don't have a sprinter here - he's just 40/1 though, not a great price. He looks to be in good shape though as he prepares for the sprint Classics.
Pim Ligthart is also another that could be worth a bet tomorrow, he can be involved in the break, or possibly get involved in the sprint, he could well feature in such a weak lineup of sprinters.
A mad stage to try to predict, it's likely to be Bryan Coquard in the sprint, but I'm going to plump for a selection of break candidates to see if they can hold off the chasing pack. There will still be a sprint from the bunch, so the matchbets should still be to play for.
Recommendations:
0.25pts each-way on Tim Wellens at 20/1
0.25pts each-way on Georg Preidler at 80/1
0.25pts each-way on Florian Senechal at 40/1
0.25pts each-way on Pim Ligthart at 28/1
MatchBets
Coquard to beat Hofland, Felline to beat Valverde and Kreder to beat Hoelgaard - 2pts at 1.4/1
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Stage 5
Stage 5
Setenil de las Bodegas - Coín
Sunday February 19th, 151.5kms
No procession sprint stage to finish the race for the Ruta del Sol, the final stage sees them climbing for 7kms right from the start. It's a lumpy day's racing ahead of them with lots of climbs along the way, but only three of which have been categorised - think Amstel Gold kind of day rather than a day in the Alps.
The opening hill sees them climb at 3.5% for 7kms, not too hard, but hard enough to help a break escape and put some of the sprinters under pressure very early in the day. After a descent they start climbing again for almost 25kms, at an average of just 2.5% though, with the final part of the climb to Puerto del Viento a Cat 3 pull for 6.5km at 4%.
After 58kms they start climbing again, this time to the Cat 3 Puerto de Las Abejas (6.8kms at 3.9%). The road keep climbing though for another 1.2kms or so, where it's possible that the break might start to attack each other if some think the climb is over.. They descend for 25kms back down towards the finish town of Coín, where they hit the first intermediate sprint with 55kms to go. They then start out on a circuit to the east of the town, looping around in a clockwise direction, taking in a sprint with 25kms to go.
If the race has come back together, or if the break of the day look like fighting out the win, then the Cat 3 climb of Alto de Jarapalos could well decide the outcome of this stage (and maybe even the race). It starts not long after the intermediate sprint, and although it averages just 2.2% average for 5.9kms, that is deceptive as there is a plateau in the middle for almost 2kms, the actual climbing probably averages closer to 6%. Enough steep parts to shake off some tired legs, and with just 16kms to go from the top, they may not be able to get back in again.
F
rom there on it's a gentle descent back to the finish, and don't be fooled by what looks like a little lump 1km from the finish, it rises about 10m, so nothing to worry about (you can see how flat the run in is from the 'Last 3kms' profile below).
The last kilometre is pretty straight, but there are two roundabouts to negotiate with 500m and 300m to go.. The second one you can see where the big blue arrow is pointing on the right, being one of the first five through here will be crucial to your chances.
I thought this would be a day for the break, but the bookies have priced up Bryan Coquard like defeat is out of the question - 4/7 on a lumpy course with a Cat 3 climb 16kms from the finish? It's a brave bet to take on.. The break has a chance of making it, but with it being the last stage of the race, it's going to be hard for them to hold off the sprinters teams as they will be in full flow trying to get something out of the race.
Coquard was anything but impressive today though I thought, it was quite a struggle for him, just pipping Hoelgaard of FDJ, a rider who finished no better than 7th in all his races in 2016. Look, he probably wins again, as I said yesterday, he's the only decent sprinter here, but 4/7 is no price to be trusting Bryan Coquard and Direct Energie with.
Pim Ligthart tried something in the last 2kms today, attacking off the front, but then inexplicably going right on a bend when everyone else went left. He may well try to make up for that tomorrow, either by getting in the break of the day or attacking late again. I think that late climb could see some stronger guys try to break the race up and attack the sprinters teams, it could all get a bit chaotic at the finish.
Who else can maybe give us a chance from either an early break or a late break? Really hard to call.. Tim Wellens maybe again, but he's just 18/1, that's hardly worth it. If the pace is really high over the last climb, maybe someone like Fabio Felline will have a chance here - either going with a split that forms on the final hill, or by maybe being one of the few sprinters that might survive at the front of the race.
I'm really struggling to come up with any other credible breakaway candidates, as many of the breakaway guys are probably going to be from the lower little teams that probably won't make it. It's not a day for anything other than small little sidebets for an interest, Coquard probably wins, but he's no price to be taking a gamble on.
Recommendations:
0.5pts each-way on Pim Ligthart at 28/1
0.5pts each-way on Fabio Felline at 14/1
Matchbets
No interest in any of the matchbets, pure lottery
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Overall Contenders
This race should be won and lost on stages 2 and 3, with the Queen stage followed by the 12km TT. The bookies have made Alejandro Valverde the 13/8 favourite and I can't argue with that. He showed two reasons why he has a huge chance here on Sunday. First, he just rode away from everyone else on the Cat 1 climb to build up a lead of nearly 3 minutes on the chasers, showing his climbing legs are in as good a shape as ever. Secondly, in the chase for the last 45kms he actually extended his lead over 21 chasing riders in a head-to-head time trial, and in the closing 15kms they took less than 30" off his lead. He should be pretty confident of a strong ride on the Queen stage, and in the following time trial based on that performance.
Not only that, but there is a high chance that he will be challenging for stage victory on the first stage as well, as that 11km climb at 6% that tops out with just 19kms to go is sure to strip most of the sprinter types out of the lead group and Valverde may find himself the best sprinter left. That could be 10" bonus straight away. And it could be the same on stage 5, he may well be able to shake off sprinters and challengers on that final climb that comes with just 16kms from the finish and sprint to more bonus seconds.
For all of those reason, he could comfortably win this race I think. He's backed by a solid team here that can control it and push it on the climbs and help lead him out for the sprint bonuses, with the likes of Sutherland, Izagirre and Anacona. Winner of this race on four previous occassions, he may well notch a 5th win to go with his 5th win in Murcia at the weekend.
Can we say the same about Alberto Contador, his main rival? I don't think so. I can't see Contador coming out in his first race of the season and blowing away a race-sharp Valverde. Contador makes his debut in his new Trek-Segafredo colours and has an experienced team here with him, with Brandle, Cardosa, Irizar and Zubeldia, but I think he will not pick up the bonus seconds that Valverde will, he will not shake him off on the Queen stage and he will be on a similar sort of level to him on a short TT like this. I think in every aspect, Valverde has him covered.
2nd in this race though in 2015, behind Froome, he took a fine stage victory and finished 4th in the TT, so he is by no means a no-hoper here, he may well be the biggest challenger to Valverde. If he is in good shape and steps on the gas on the steep 10% slopes of the Pena Del Aguila on Stage 2, Valverde may struggle to stay with him. It will be up to Anacona, Izagirre and Co. to keep things under control and chase down attacks if they come.
Third favourite is Thibaut Pinot, and previously you'd have said that a race with a TT was not going to be one for him, but FDJ made some huge strides on the TT bikes last year, to the extent that he actually won the French TT championships last year and won the TT in Romandie and the Dauphiné. That sort of TT'ing form with his best climbing form would pull him right in to the reckoning here. But his season opener in Valenciana was a bit of a disaster, with him losing 43" on the first road stage and it just got worse from there, losing another 6 minutes on a pretty benign stage 3. FDJ put it down to 'flu-like symptoms' and he suffered for a few days. It doesn't bode well though for him for this race to have his preparation affected like that.
He seemed to start last season better with a 2nd place in the GP Marseillaise and 3rd overall in the Etoile, including a 2nd place in the 12km TT. And as he is targeting the Giro this year, you'd expect him to be in reasonably good shape, but it could be that he now tries to recover and start building up to Tirreno-Adriatico or the Tour of the Alps..
Ion Izagirre could also go well here, now that he is riding for Bahrain Merida, he will have more freedom to do his own thing. 4th in Valenciana last year, 2nd in the Algarve, thanks to an excellent 4th in the 18km TT behind Cancellara, Martin and Thomas. He had an excellent year last year, with stage wins in the TDF, the Spanish national TT champs and more that would suggest that if he is in good form he has a chance here to serve it up to the top two favourites.
And based on his fine 6th in Murcia Saturday he looks ready to me to challenge, he was one of a small select group that fought out the finish after Valverde. He has Javier Moreno and Ondrej Cink to help him out and with Vincenzo Nibali in this squad he will need to take advantage of these opportunities to lead the team. The 10/1 looks ok to me with Skybet, the only bookies out with odds at the time of writing.
Based on his start to last season you'd have said Wout Poels would be a challenger here, but he was no match for Quintana in Valenciana and couldn't even gain enough time on Hermans and Senni on the Queen stage to move himself on to the podium. I think the TT might work against him too, he really isn't good enough against the clock, so I think 4th to 6th is where he might finish again, and the 12/1 is not a great price I think.
This is a very strong Sky team that are lining up here with Diego Rosa, Mikel Landa, Mikel Nieve, David Lopez, Vasil Kiryienka and Christian Knees - a lot of climbing power there, and it is almost as if they don't know themselves who will be team leader, as it could be any of about 5 of them. That's reflected in the bookies prices too, but they go 25/1 Rosa and 33/1 Landa, with Kiryienka 80/1 and Nieve 125/1. Nieve looks far too big at 125/1 compared to the others. They may be just using this as a prep race for the Giro though, looks like most of this squad are going there in May.
Tim Wellens could go well here too - he can TT ok, he can climb well on not too difficult climbs and he is a punchy attacker that could steal a march on one of the other stages. He has started this season with a bang, winning two races in the Mallorca challenge, both of which were quite lumpy, including beating Valverde on the uphill finish to the Trofeo Andratx. The 18/1 on him will appeal to Wellens fans, he has a decent chance of a top 6 here, maybe even a podium place.
Fabio Felline is another interesting one at 22/1 - not one you'd have expected to pull off a TT win, seeing as he is a sprinter, but last year he finished 9th in a TT in the Vuelta and 6th in a TT in Poland, so he's capable of a decent TT at times. He started this season with a superb victory in the Trofeo Laigueglia in Italy last Sunday, soloing away with 10kms to go to land his first victory since September 2015, in front of his family, friends and fan club.
After fracturing his skull in Amstel Gold last year he slowly got back in to it and this win in his first race of the season bodes well for the Italian champion. His targets this year are San Remo and Strade Bianche, so he has prepared well pre-season and he could have a say in this race. He can sprint, he can stay with the climbers on the not too difficult climbs, so he could be picking up bonus seconds along the way too.
Rigoberto Uran is 33/1, hard to know what way he wil go here. He doesn't always go well early in the season, he tends to get going later in the year, as his run of 3rd places in Italy at the end of last season, including in Il Lombardia shows. He hasn't taken part in this race since 2011, when he finished 7th, and I'm not sure he'll be troubling the podium here. He'll do an 'ok' TT and do 'ok' on the Queen stage, but 'ok' will not be good enough to get him on the podium.
Cannondale also have Pierre Rolland and Joe Dombrowski here who could go well on the climbs, but I can't see them getting on the podium either. Warren Barguil and Jurgen Van Den Broeck look big at 66/1 and 80/1 respectively, and others like Hugh Carthy, Victor de la Parte and Gorka Izagirre could also go well, but will be 10th to 20th rather than top 10 I think.
So - nothing original here again, another early season race, another favourite that looks like the best bet to have, but I just think there are just so many positives for Valverde's chances compared to all the others. Contador's form is unknown, Valverde will pick up more bonus seconds than him and could well win up to 3 stages. Ion Izagirre looks an interesting each-way bet at 10/1 with Skybet, but maybe you'll get a better price when Bet365 or PP price it up (if they do).
Recommendations:
3pts win on Alejandro Valverde at 6/4 with Skybet
0.75pts each-way on Ion Izagirre at 10/1 with Skybet