Roma Maxima Preview

Sunday 9th March,

Gladiators, ready! It's the Roma Maxima this Sunday closing off the weekends Italian action, following the Strade Bianche on Saturday, but hey, it's only a matter of days until Tirreno Adriatico.. Grande!

roma-maxima-colliseum

The 2013 Roma Maxima was the 75th edition of the race, which was known as the Giro del Lazio up until 2008. The race actually stopped in 2008 but came back as the Roma Maxima in 2013. Blel Kadri of AG2R La Mondiale won last year's race after a superb solo ride. He got away with 4 others after just 53kms and on the climb to Campi di Annibale with 40kms to go he dropped the others and rode on alone to victory. A five-rider group including Vincenzo Nibali tried to chase Kadri down, but he held the gap all the way to Rome.

There was the funny scenes at the finish though when Pippo Pozzato won the sprint for second from Grega Bole but as he had no race radio Pozzato thought he had won it and celebrated like the winner.. but he wasn't the only one fooled, as Bole thumped his handlebars in disgust, you can see the action in the video clip below. It's not been a very lucky race for Pozzato as he also finished 2nd in 2008 behind Masciarelli!

If you took Kadri out of the result last year it would have been a bunch sprint and it could well end the same way this year as the sprinters teams will not want to let anyone get away like Kadri again. A nice little feature of the race is that they do a loop around the colliseum in Rome before finishing on the Fori Imperiale. The winner then receives an olive-leaf crown.

The big news today though in terms of Tirreno Adriatico which comes later in the week was that Chris Froome is going to miss it due to an inflamation in his lower back. Richie Porte switches to riding it from Paris Nice, letting Geraint Thomas as team leader now for Sky.. There was 50/1 available on Thomas for Paris-Nice, and given as I had planned on backing him anyway, it was a gift to get him at 50/1. I had 1.5pts each on him and he has since been cut to 11/1.

The Route

They leave Rome heading south east on the Via Appia Antica and off in to the hills outside Rome. They loop around the hills in an anti-clockwise direction before heading back in the Via Appia Antica and the iconic finishing run-in.

The first 100km roll along on pretty flat roads, and the riders are likely to be chatting and catching up with old friends before the action starts to hot up with the double header of the Rocca Massima and the Colle Callacio coming in quick succession. The Rocca Massima starts after 93kms and is 10km long. The Colle Callacio is much shorter at only about 2.5km but they will then hit the fast descent back in to the valley below.

The key climbs of the day are then up next once they have passed the feed station and start heading back north-east in the direction of Rome again on a very straight and very Roman road. After 128kms they start on the lower slopes of the Rocca Priora which get steeper and on to the climb proper after 133.6kms, climbing for another 11kms.

A quick 10km descent is then followed by the last big test of the day, the 5km long climb of the Campi di Anibale, which comes with just 36km to go to the finish. All bar the last few kilometres of those 36kms are descending, so even if there are a few riders just off the front, expect a frantic chase by the sprinters teams to set it up for their fast men at the finish.

One final possible sting in the tail is the cobbled section of the Appia Antica but it is more likely to end in a sprint than not.

Map

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Profile

Finish Run-in

Overall Contenders and Favourites

A lot of the same contenders are down to ride the Strade Bianche as well as the Roma Maxima but the exact final startlist isn't available yet and we may not know it exactly until maybe Saturday night or Sunday morning.

As it stands at the moment (Friday night) the list of starters includes Samu Sanchez, making his belated debut for BMC which will add an extra element of interest, not that you would expect him to be in great shape first time out after the complicated winter he has had.

Others down to ride include Valverde, Quintana, Pozzato, Gilbert, Modolo, Igor Anton, Dumolin, Colbrelli, Basso and Luca Paolini.

**Update - 08/03 21:45** I'll keep this short and sweet as I am trying to get my Paris Nice preview finished also.. I have had a good bet on Philippe Gilbert for this. I have had word that BMC are going to be riding for him tomorrow and he really fancies it. He was on my shortlist above as you see and when this came through tonight I steamed in to the 10/1 that Skybet opened at. Honestly, it's not a great price, I was hoping for around 16/1 but as there was only one bookie with prices you take what you get. Kudos to Skybet though for pricing it up. Then to add more confidence to it, Eurosport Commentator, and near-neighbour Carlton Kirby tweeted tonight that he met Gilbert at dinner and you can see what he said below....

Bumped into cycling's über-gentleman @PhilippeGilbert at dinner this evening. He's relaxed...so watch out everyone! Roma beckons tomorrow
— Carlton Kirby (@carltonkirby) March 8, 2014

So I have had 1.5pts each way at 10/1 and another 1.5pts on the straight win as I think he will be involved in the finish - I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a go on the last little climb or even attacking hard on the descent in to Rome.. he may get a small group with him and he'd have a good chance of taking a small group sprint depending on who's with him of course!

I also liked the look of Modolo for this, he has been flying lately too but I just fear he might get caught out on that last climb. Having said that, it was more or less a bunch sprint last year that Pozzata won so sprinters can get over the climbs.. He could be worth an interest at 7/1 too.

Sonny Colbrelli is just too short at 10/3 favourite, yes he has been going well and these are home races that they will have firmly on their race calendars as ones to go for, but I can't be backing him at that sort of silly price. Mauro Finetto likewise, at only 11/2.

Others to consider - Valverde is only 9/1 but he had a hard race today taking 3rd (as I predicted he would) but we saw in Andalucia that he is well able to perform well on consecutive days.. Will he really be going for it? Why not - he is not doing T-A or P-N so he can rest up for a few days after this. He's a bit tight again at 9/1 but if you are a Valverde fan I can't put you off backing him.

One of my other picks for Strade Bianche at 80/1 Tom Dumoulin rode a great race coming in in 12th position and he goes again on Sunday too. He just couldn't handle the power of the big guns when they went but was right there in the thick of it when only a handful remained. I'm not sure this race suits him as much but he is 25/1 if you fancy him.

Finally, I mentioned Luca Paolini earlier, how well he has been going, well he has been installed as 12/1 fourth favourite. That's too short for me to really get stuck in, was hoping for 16-20/1 but just in case I will have a small saver win bet on him. As ever, watch out for updates on Twitter, I pointed out with 10km or more to go today that Kwiatkowski (my 16/1 tip) was going far better than Sagan and the 2/1 on him in play had to be taken on Betfair and Sagan had to be laid at 1/2.. So it worked out beautifully for me as not only did I land my 16/1 each way tip but also got out of all the stake (and more) I had on Sagan to make it a very profitable day. How bloody good was Kwiatkowski though!?! Awesome.

Recommendations:

Philippe Gilbert - 1.5pts each way at 10/1 with Skybet

Philippe Gilbert - 1.5pts win at 10/1 with Skybet

Luca Paolini - 0.5pts win at 12/1