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Published on Saturday, 09 April 2016 00:35

Paris-Roubaix 2016

Sunday 10th April, 257.5kms

Peter Sagan looks to join some of the greats of the sport with a Flanders - Roubaix double, something only achieved 12 times in the past, significantly twice by both Tom Boonen and Fabian Cancellara. And who would put it past him after his demolition job on Sunday in Flanders. As he put it himself, "none of them want to work with me, so I dropped them all!"

2015 saw a fantastic win for John Degenkolb, his chase down of the leaders (with the temporary help from Bert de Backer) was superb, nail-biting stuff. He was just so powerful over the last 25kms or so, bridging on his own more or less, something you don't expect from a normal 'sprinter'. He easily won the sprint to land the win bets for us at 10/1 and behind it looked for a while like my 100/1 forecast on Degenkolb to beat Van Avermaet was after landing, first results said GVA was 2nd. In the end it was given to Stybar by millimetres but the each-way on Van Avermaet and match bet wins made it a very profitable day. 

Paris-Roubaix is a different beast altogether to Flanders. The terrain may be flatter, allowing some riders a better chance than the hilly Ronde route, but it contains no less than 52.8kms of cobbles altogether in 27 sections this year. That is the same number of sections as last year, but has 100m more cobbles than last year. The organisers have re-categorised the cobbled sections again this year and there are three five-star sectors, the highest degree of difficulty: Trouée d’Arenberg (sect. 18,  2.4km at 162km point), the Mons-en-Pévèle (sect. 10, 3kms at 209km point) and Le Carrefour de l’Arbre (sect. 4, 2.1km at 240.5km point).

The new uphill stretch, the Capelle-Ruesnes (sect. 22, 1.7kms at 127km point) was given a three-star rating, but the remaining sections kept their same ranking as last year, even though sectors 11, 10 and 6 were partially renovated.

The five-star sectors are the Arenberg Forest, Mons-en-Pévèle and Carrefour de l’Arbre, the latter being a new addition to the rank of five stars last year, as it was in even worse condition than the year before.. According to Thierry Gouvenou of the ASO "With time, the Carrefour de l’Arbre has got harder and harder. In terms of difficulty, it’ll be right up there with the Arenberg Forest this year. Over the whole sector, I don’t think there’s a single level cobblestone" 

Known as 'L'enfer du Nord' or the 'Hell of the North' it was first run in 1896 and is one of the oldest cycling races in the world - it's the 114th edition of the race this year. On a dry day it chokes the riders and cakes them in the dust blown up by the motorbikes and other riders, like last year, where they were almost obscured from view at times with the amount of dust being kicked up. On a wet day it becomes a nightmare of slippy cobbles, mud and deep pools of water that can hide the sharp and dangerous cobbles and rocks.    

The Route

Every year they start in Compiegne in the Place du Palais, just north of Paris and the first 98.5kms are pretty uneventful, flat and boring until they hit the first of the cobbled sections at Troisvilles to Inchy, a 3-star, 2,200m stretch to ease them in to the Pavé. Well at least that's currently the plan, but there is a danger that his section will be omitted as it is covered in mud and potentially too dangerous. There will be a decision made on Saturday afternoon at the manager's meeting as to whether they include it or not.

Over the next 50kms they pass eight cobbled sections covering a total of 17.6kms of Pavé as they head predominantly northwards towards Valenciennes. 

The three 'Five-Star' sections of cobbles will have a major bearing on the outcome of the race. The first comes with 95kms left, section 18 of the Trouée d'Arenberg (the Trench of Arenberg) which is a punishing and very rough 2.4kms long.

First proposed by Jean Stablinski, a former world champion who used to work in the local mine, it's a stunningly ominous and iconic section of 'road' with the road-side trees a stark contrast to the wide open fields they ride through later on. This is where we may see some teams like Katusha, Lotto-Jumbo and Etixx-QS put the hammer down to try to thin the peloton out, although last year it was a relatively uneventful passage.

On a bad, wet, muddy day there can be carnage here. As Stablinski said more than 50 years ago "Paris-Roubaix is not won in the Arenberg, but from there the group with the winner is selected."

It fell in to such a state of disrepair it was removed in 2005 but the Amis de Paris-Roubaix spent €250,000 repairing it and restoring it to its original 3m width and it was reintroduced again. Pippo Pozzato once described it as follows: "It's the true definition of hell. It's very dangerous, especially in the first kilometre when we enter it at more than 60kh. It's unbelievable. The bike goes in all directions. It will be a real spectacle but I don't know if it's really necessary to impose it on us"

The next key five star section is the Mons-en-Pévèle section which comes with only about 49kms to go and has been a race-shaper on a number of occassions in the past. In 2010 Cancellara launched his race-winning move just before this section of pavé. In 2012, Boonen kicked off his long solo effort just before this section, putting the hammer down and quickly building up a lead.  In 2008 Stijn Devolder attacked here and helped set up Boonen for another of his wins. It's 3km long and the first 1100m are in ok condition, but the last 1100m are quite rough with mud flowing from the fields adding to the difficulty.

There's a series of tough cobbled sections that come one after the other in the last 40kms but it's the 4th last section of the Carrefour de l'Arbe with 17kms to go that can be a race maker or race breaker.  Not only is it a place the likes of Cancellara, Sagan, Vanmarcke, Stybar, Terpstra or Boom will try to shed any remaining hangers-on by hammering it at the front, but it is also a section which sees it's fair share of crashes and accidents. 

Then on to the finish in Roubaix.. First, one last section of cobbles, but it's flat and easy, almost procession-like in the town as they approach the velodrome and pass under the 1km to go flag. Then on to the idiosyncratic finish, a lap and a half of the velodrome, which often sees the leading riders joined on their last lap by the chasers starting their first lap. You have to time your sprint right and get the right line, if you are on your last legs you need to hug the track edge and try to hang on, if you've still got strength you can come around the top and try to outsprint your rivals.

The Weather

People have been getting a bit worried about the weather this week, as it looked like earlier in the week that it was going to be raining on Sunday. Now though the foreccast has changed again to say that there is a low chance of rain and that it will be mostly cloudy. The forecast for Friday and Saturday though is scattered showers, getting a bit heavier on Saturday night, so there could still be a lot of mud and water on the course in parts. It also looks like there will be a light tailwind of around 12-14mph as they head north towards Roubaix, that will help any breakaways stay away on the run-in.

Contenders and Favourites

No Degenkolb or Van Avermaet this year, the riders who finished 1st and 3rd for me last year. Instead, at the top of the betting is the World Champion and excellent winner of the Ronde, Peter Sagan. He was superb last Sunday, pulling off an unexpected attack in an unusual place once again and leaving Cancellara behind. He was fantastic on the Kwaremont to shed Kwiatkowski and again on the Paterberg, to shed Vanmarcke. He was just so strong, I think that even if the chasers had caught him he'd have beaten them in the sprint anyway, so I was always confident in the last 12kms that he would win it.

He doesn't have a great record in this race though, he's only entered it four times and his results read DNF, 86, 6, 23rd. Finishing in 23rd last year was a big disappointment for him, but he clearly wasn't in as good shape as he is this year. In Flanders last year he failed to go with Kristoff and Terpstra and after making a surge on the Paterberg with GVA he faded at the finish and couldn't go with him in the last 400m. This year was a totally different matter, and he surged clear of everyone with immense power. He also showed how good he is in a small sprint in Gent Wevelgem. I think there is no doubt that he will be a big player in the outcome of the race and could well ride home solo once again. It may be that he doesn't even need to ride solo, with Degenkolb out and Kristoff not exactly firing on all cylinders, he may well still be the best sprinter out of a reduced group of favourites.

Fabian Cancellara was backed off the boards last week ahead of the Ronde and he came very close to rewarding his supporters. But that hesitation, that moment when Sagan went in pursuit of Kwiato and Cancellara didn't go cost him the race. He said afterwards that he trusted in his team-mates, particularly Devolder to control things, and despite an enormous job by Devolder, Fabs was just unable to get up to Sagan. When Sagan and Vanmarcke passed us near the top of the Kwaremont and we panned left to see who was coming next and saw Cancellara charging after him, the place went bonkers, the roar coming up the road was unreal. I feared that he would catch him he had made up so much ground so quickly, but Sagan stepped on the gas again on the really hard part after the café at the top of the hill and Cancellara was unable to gain any more ground.

He was hugely disappointed as you'd expect, I think he really believed he would go out with a bang with a record 4th win in the 100th Ronde. What better way to gain revenge though than to ride away from everyone on Sunday and win Paris-Roubaix instead. I think he will have to try to go solo to the finish though, he will need to attack hard on one of the last sections inside the last 30kms, possibly the Carrefour de l'Arbre which comes with 17kms to go, maybe even earlier. 

But a few things worry me. One, that he didn't kick with Sagan and Kwiatkowski, and then Vanmacke too - these were serious rivals who he had dueled with the week before in GW - he knows how strong and dangerous they are. A Cancellara that was feeling 100% I think wouldn't have let them go. Secondly, he made a big push on the Kwaremont and on the Paterberg to catch Sagan, and it seemed to take a lot out of him. Previously one of the best time-triallists in the world, he was outridden in the last 12kms by Sagan, in fact losing time despite being in a two-up with Vanmarcke. Granted some of that was down to Vanmarcke holding him up, but nonetheless, he looked cooked at the end. If Sagan goes from far out, say 30-40kms to go, and Cancellara has to chase him again, will he be able to catch him? Will he have anything left for the finale?

I ran a poll on Twitter last Sunday and despite the results being neck-and-neck for most of the 24-hours of the survey, Sagan pulled away in the end with 38% of the votes to Cancellara's 35%.. You guys were spot on and it reflected the race with them being 1-2 at the finish. This week the voting is very different, with Cancellara leading the poll on Thursday night with 39% of the votes, Sagan on 24%, Vanmarcke on 12% and 'Other' on 25%, with Boom and Rowe getting a lot of the votes.

Sep Vanmarcke - will he ever win a race of significance or just continue to put in valiant performances and take unlucky podium places? I thought though on Sunday that it was a seriously classy and honourable move by him to not contest the sprint with Cancellara at the finish and let Cancellara have his wave-to-the-crowd goodbye moment. 3rd or 2nd doesn't make a big difference to him at the end of the day. He was alert to the move on Sunday though when Sagan went after Kwiato, and was strong enough, first to bridge to the two of them quite quickly, something no one else tried to do, and secondly to stay with Sagan as he blasted up the Kwaremont.

Naturally, given his size and inferior climbing abilities to Sagan, he struggled on the Paterberg and went in to the red. So much so, that when Cancellara joined him for the TT to the finish in pursuit of Sagan he was actually holding Cancellara back when taking his turns. You could see on the screen that when Vanmarcke went to the front the gap went up by a second or two and then Cancellara would go to the front and pull it back again. He was out on his feet for the last 10kms and really couldn't contribute much.. maybe his classy gesture was simply that he couldn't even sprint?! He should be right up there though in the key moves of the day and should be part of, or very close to the race deciding breaks, especially if it's wet and nasty. He may be capable of going with Sagan or Cancellara when they make their move and the flatter course of PR suits him better than the hills of Flanders. He should be top 6 probably, maybe even top 4, but can he lift himself to the top step of the podium for once?

Lars Boom is coming in for a lot of love this week and is getting plenty of votes in my twitter poll. He loves it over these cobbles and has finished 4th and 6th, but he also won that stage of the TDF in 2014 which took in 9 sections of Pavé, including the Carrefour de l'Arbre. That was a horrible wet and muddy day and Boom showed all his cyclo-cross skills and power to ride away from everyone to a fantastic solo finish. Granted, riding a stage in the TDF is a very different thing in terms of the commitment of others and number of big rivals you would get in PR, but it was very impressive none-the-less.

He was quite prominent on Sunday and rode a good race to finish 11th, landing the match-bet versus Stannard. He finished with the first group home after the three leaders on Sunday despite suffering FOUR punctures, the last one on the Taainberg cost him a lot of energy chasing back. He was reportedly targeting PR more than Flanders though and is very happy with his form "Vlaanderen was very good. It's going well. I hope that I'll be able to show that on Sunday. I've never been in such great form at this time of the season. My result from Sunday doesn't reflect what I'm capable of. I'm better than that result. If I don't have the flat tyre on the Taaienberg then I'm up there in the front of the race. Then I'd be able to keep up with Cancellara in the finale."

Again, like Vanmarcke, the flatter roads of Roubaix suit him better than the hills of Flanders, although he did bloody well on Sunday over said hills. There have been rumours and speculation that he will retire from road racing at the end of this season and switch to Sven Nys's cyclocross team, so it would be huge for him to go out with a bang in Roubaix. The wetter and muddier it is, the better for him. At 16/1 with Coral paying four places he might be worth keeping onside.

Luke Rowe and Ian Stannard represent Sky's best chance of success in the race now that Thomas isn't riding it and Kwiatkowski is now focusing on Amstel Gold race. Luke Rowe has been a revalation this year with some really good rides. He as 4th in OHN after a fantastic ride yet his price stayed at 100/1. I took some of that at the time, and when a pro I know put it to me "100/1, have they not been watching his races??!" I was pretty happy with the bet. Since then he was flying in the first stage of De Panne but punctured out of the race-winning move with Kristoff and Westra, and then rode brilliantly on Sunday to finish 5th, coming from a long way back over the Paterberg to join the front group and fight out the sprint with Kristoff. 

Since then his price has tumbled to as low as 20/1 and most of the value is now gone. There is some 26/1 around, but if you want to have the extra protection of four places, then the 22/1 with Boylesports might be worth taking. I think that might well be worth it as I think Rowe could be right up there with the likes of Sagan, Cancellara, Vanmarcke, Boom, Terpstra and co. as they enter the closing stages, and we saw Sunday that he has a half-decent sprint on him when taking 2nd behind Kristoff in the sprint for 4th. He could well land a top 4 spot, but I'll be hoping he gets a jump on the other favourites as they look around in the closing kilometres and he gets a gap he holds all the way!

Ian Stannard will be working for Rowe this weekend I believe. There was talk that he had had a cold before Flanders and that he would be working for Thomas. The latter part looks like it was mostly true as he did a gob for his team-mates, helping to set Kwiatkowski's attack up. If he is feeling really good he could attack in the last 40kms and look to stretch things, maybe some good guys like Boom go with him and they might make it. 

Tiesj Benoot and Jurgen Roelandts lead again for Lotto Soudal, but Tiesj is a little battered and bruised after his crash in Flanders last weekend. He surprisingly is fit to race and apparently wanted to race Scheldeprijs on Wednesday but the DS wouldn't let him. He said today though that he did a recon ride and felt really good on the cobbles and that he was all set for Sunday. I backed him weeks ago when he was showing some great form at 66/1, but I'm not so sure now following his crash. He will like it wet and cold though, so if he has indeed recovered well he could be involved.

Roelandts was suffering from back pains and a sick stomach last week and it looks like it may have held him back a little last Sunday, as although he finished a respectable 17th place, I think he would have expected to be in Kristoff's group, who were 27" ahead of him,. He may have recovered further by now and they have a strong team here to help him - Greipel is going really well, Lars Bak, Jelle Wallays- they are all pretty strong.

Zdenek Stybar, Nikki Terpstra, Tom Boonen, Stijn Vandenbergh, Tony Martin - a formidable lineup that could and should be dominating this race. Former winners in Boonen (four times) and Terpstra, they know their way around the cobbels of Paris-Roubaix. But it's been four years since Boonen last won it and he hasn't finished in the top ten of a Classic yet this year. He looks a shadow of his former self, as was evident by him clinging on at the back on the Taaienberg on Sunday, HIS Taaienberg! He has been talking up his chances for Sunday and that he wasn't feeling great in Roubaix, but I think it's unlikely we'll see him go with the big moves when they come. He could well be in the first main chasing group of 20 or so riders, but may not podium.

Terpstra won Le Samyn on a horrible, wet, muddy day a month ago but that was against a far weaker field than this one, and his record in the classics since then read 35th in DDV, 13th in E3, 21st in GW and 10th on Sunday in Flanders. In the same group as him on Sunday was Stybar in 8th place, and his record is similar - 2nd in Strade, then 142nd in MSR, 15th in E3 and 42nd in GW. Not exactly showing signs that they can break in to the top 3 here, maybe they peaked too soon? Stybar is a former 'crosser though and always goes well in PR, his three attempts so far has seen him finish 6th, 5th and 2nd - a progression that would suggest a win is not impossible. I think Etixx will have to play it a lot smarter than they have done lately and try multiple attacks and be very aggressive. When they don't they will find themselves fighting to hold on to Sagan and Cancellara when they explode in to action. 

Vandenbergh and Martin could both be put to work on Sunday to take long pulls at the front and keep it under control, but they are two strong men that could try their luck with attacks off the front. It worked for Tony Martin in the TDF last year, even though he was on a team-mates (much smaller!) bike after a mechanical.   

Alexander Kristoff is another enigma for this race - his record so far here reads DNF, DNF, 57th, 9th, DNF, 10th. Bad luck has played its part for sure, but with the form he seems to be in at the moment, I think it will be another 5th to 10th place for him at best, maybe like last year, and on Sunday in Flanders, leading home the first group of chasers. But... if it comes down to him being involved in the first group home, then watch out.. He's really been playing down his chances this week though and doesn't sound confident at all.

BMC have lost their talismanic leader Van Avermaet but it now gives some of his lieutenants a chance to have a go in what could be a 'go out and enjoy yourself' sort of approah. Daniel Oss, Taylor Phinney, Jempy Drucker, Marcus Burghardt, Manuel Quinziato, Floris Gerts - all strong, capable men that could have some fun. Phinney will be interesting to watch, he may have finished 79th in Flanders, but really he was with the big group that finished 7 minutes down starting at 35th place, so not a bad run. He has been talking up his form and how he is happy with how he is going and looking forward to Flanders. I can't see him being involved though, maybe next year. Quinziato, Oss and Burghardt could all go on speculative attacks over the closing 50kms but I can't see a BMC rider on the podium on Sunday.

Jasper Stuyven is a back-up man for Cancellara and was desperately unlucky in Flanders, he rode FIVE different bikes during the day as a result of mechanical problems, team-mates giving him bikes and so on, so the 118th, last place, in his Palmares should be ignored. He is in good shape and maybe not having to go in to the red in the closing kilometres there for Cancellara might have been a good thing for Sunday. He will be no.2 lieutenant probably after Devolder, but should anything happen Fabs he will step up to team leader role and could go well.

Dylan Van Baarle rode a fine race for Cannondale on Sunday, finishing just behind Kristoff and Rowe in an impressive 6th place. He was well positioned all day and rode the cobbles very well and could well pull off a big ride again for the Ride Argyle guys. They also have Sebastian Langeveld and Wouter Wippert but it's unlikely they will be there at the finish. I'm looking forward to seeing how Ryan Mullen goes though, this will be his biggest road race he has ever started. 

Florian Senechal is an annual selection of mine now and I will keep backing him as I think one day he could win this race. And as he rewarded me with a bet on him each-way at 66/1 in Le Samyn when he finished 3rd, I am not going to desert him in case it is the year he lands a massive result! Winner of the Paris-Roubaix Juniors in 2011 and runner up in Flanders Juniors in the same year, he likes it over the cobbles. 3rd at 66/1 in Le Samyn, he looked very strong that day and was quite aggressive, just couldn't go with Terpstra when he attacked. Cofidis weren't invited to Flanders this year so he's had an extra week to prepare for Roubaix and has lots of training and recons done, plus he will be fresher having not done Flanders. I'm on at 250/1, but there's still some 200/1 with Boyles paying four places (he's just 66/1 with Bet365).

Damian Gaudin is another who I like and have backed over the years here, he comes alive in PR and has finished 5th here in 2013. He's another very long shot, but maybe worth a tiny interest at 200/1.

The verdict? Well it's hard to see past the same guys who have dominated the cobbled classics so far this season - Sagan, Cancellara, Vanmarcke, Terpstra, Rowe, Stybar and Boom. It's certainly not as rare as you'd think for riders to do the Flanders-Roubaix double (Cancellara and Boonen have both done it twice, but famously Eddy Merckx never did) and Sagan just looks head and shoulders above everyone else at the moment.

It will be a bit harder to get away without the hills of Flanders to accelerate on, but if he puts the hammer down on the Mons-en-Pévele or the Carrefour de l'Arbre he might just get away. If not and he comes to the velodrome with the guys named above, he should win the sprint. It will be interesting to see his tactics this week, whether he goes on the attack early again or whether he holds back and waits for a sprint. Chances are it will be the former. 

Cancellara is joint favourite with him at 3/1, but is favourite with some bookies. He is sure to be right at the front of proceedings and he too could be one to put the hammer down early, he has often just ridden away as if on a motorbike from the others on the harder stretches of cobbles. Terpstra and Stybar will have to double up on them and try to get away from them and then counter again if reeled in. Easier said then done though. In the Twitter poll I ran this week, Cancellara won with 40% to 24% for Sagan and 12% for Vanmarcke with 'Others' getting 24% also - with Boom, Rowe, Terpstra, Stannard and Stybar getting the votes.

I think we will either see Sagan coming home solo again or maybe with Cancellara, or if the Quicksteppers neutralise things we might get 6 or 8 guys come to the finish together. Boom will try attacking, Rowe should be up there too I think and it could be a very exciting finish. After Sagan's brilliant performance for us last week I can't desert him and I think we'll see him create more history on Sunday with a Rainbow Jersey double. 

Recommendations:

2.5pts win on Peter Sagan at 3.2/1 on Betfair

0.4pts each-way on Luke Rowe at 100/1 with Bet365, take the 25/1 with Totesport paying 4 places

0.5pts each-way on Lars Boom at 20/1 with Boylesports (a bit short now a 12/1 with PP, but if you want to back him back him with PP as they are paying four places.)

0.2pts each-way on Florian Senechal at 250/1 with Bet365, take the 200/1 with Boylesports paying four places

2pts on the winning margin to be 5 seconds or less at 6/4 with William Hill

Match-Bets:

Vandenbergh to beat Stannard - 2pts at 6/5 with Bet465

Boom to beat Stybar - 2pts at evens with Bet365

Boom to beat Kristoff - 2pts at 17/20 with WillHill

De Backer to beat Mercato, Greipel to beat Cavendish, Senechal to beat Bozic - 2pts on the double at 2/1

I've added Naesen to beat Thwaites this morning at 11/10 as Thwaites has tweeted that he has fallen ill, 'but will give it a good crack' - 3pts on Naesen at 11/10 with 365

This season I am also going to be naming my top ten riders to watch in some races, for the many of you out there that like playing Fantasy Cycling games. Fantasy games such as the Zweeler cycling games where you can play for cash prizes.

Here's my ten to watch for Paris Roubaix

1 Fabian Cancellara

2 Peter Sagan

3 Luke Rowe

4 Teisj Benoot

5 Zdenek Stybar

6 Sep Vanmarcke

7 Lars Boom

8 Florian Senechal

9 Niki Terpstra

10 Daniel Oss

Sign up with Zweeler Fantasy Cycling games today to play the Paris-Roubaix Fantasy game, there are over €2,000 in prizes to be won! If you sign up here you can receive a 100% deposit bonus up to €100! Click here to read more.