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Published on Friday, 22 March 2019 19:25

Milano Sanremo

Saturday 23rd March

Milan to Sanremo, 291Km

So we move on to the first 'Monument' of the season with the monster trek through northern Italy that is Milan San Remo. The Classics have been dominated by Deceuninck Quick Step so far this year, can they continue their winning streak?

When does the season proper start? Some say Down Under, some say with the OHN/KBK weekend in Belgium, some say Paris-Nice, while some purists say it's only with the first Monument of the season, Milan San Remo.

Whichever way you look at it, MSR is a race to savour and look forward to. It's an endurance challenge for riders and viewers alike at 291kms long, the longest race of the year. 'La Classicisima di Primavera' starts Saturday morning in Milan and some six and a half hours, and 291 kilometres later they come charging down off the Poggio to the finish line on Via Roma in San Remo in a well-worn path they have been treading for 106 editions. 

It's a race steeped in history and prestige, a race notorious for its distance and its climax over the ascent, and descent of the Poggio, a hill famous in cycling folklore. Sometimes raced in harsh, northern-Italy-in-March winter conditions, it's often referred to as 'the sprinters Classic' but you have to be a real hard man to win this one.

Last year's race was won in sensational fashion by 'Lo Squalo', Vincenzo Nibali, coming home on his own to deny the sprinters. As he took off at the top of the Poggio, the others squabbled about who would chase him, and with descending skills as good as Nibali's, that was a very bad idea..

Bahrain Merida had led him in to the foot of the Poggio like a team leading out a sprinter, with Nibali even shouldering guys out of his way to stay on the wheels.. a clear sign he was up for it.. Drucker attacked a little too far out from the summit, and as he tired and was coming back to the peloton, Krists Neilands, the Latvian National Champ riding for Israel Cycling Academy took off.

Straight on his wheel was Vincenzo Nibali, while behind Mohoric and Haussler blocked and the sprinters all seemed to decide it was folly by Nibali and it was going to end in a sprint. Nibali descended like a stone, while behind the sprinters' teams again squabbled about who would do the chasing, and by the time QS came to the front with just over 2kms to go, it was too late. Caleb Ewan won the sprint for second by about two bike lengths, with Démare, Kristoff, Roelandts and Sagan making up the rest of the top 6.

Elia Viviani, my 14/1 pick got blocked as the sprint wound up, after all QS's work, and finished outside the top 10, Démare, my other pick got us something back with the 12/1 e/w.

What a start to the season it's been for DQS, with Julian Alaphilippe adding Strade Bianche to their clean sweep of Classics wins this season, following on from Stybar in OHN, Jungels in KBK and Senechal in Le Samyn. It was another good race in Siena last Saturday, Alaphilippe's acceleration was only matched by Astana's Jacob Fuglsang and Jumbo Visma's Wout Van Aert. And then he follows it with that audacious stage win in T-A on Monday, outsprinting the sprinters, including his team-mate Viviani.

It was pretty disappointing though to see Greg Van Avermaet and the Lotto Soudal boys throw in the towel so quickly, although it looked like Benoot's knee injury and the fact that Wellens was reportedly after waking up with a sore throat might have hampered them. I've heard since though that GVA tried to chase, but sat up when everyone just jumped on his wheel, and the Lotto boys were squabbling amongst themselves as to who would work for who and they were principally responsible for 'fcking up the chase'.

But again it was team-work that helped Alaphilippe escape, with Stybar, Serry and Lampaert all helping set up Alaphilippe for his move, and then blocking and chasing everything down behind once he was gone. DQS had four riders finish in the top 13, with Stybar getting up for 4th to pay out those who were on him each-way with Skybet.
Van Aert was superb too to rejoin Fuglsang and Alap as they eased a little in the closing kilometres, but knew he was going to blow his lights on the final climb, so did the right thing and just rode it at his pace to ensure another podium place.

Fuglsang looked the stronger out on the course, Alap gurned and grimaced his way through the last 20kms or so, but Fuglsang had no answer to him when he surged past him at the top of the hill. There were great rides also from Simon Clarke and Toms Skujins with top 10 finishes.

There has been some crazy, brilliant racing in Paris-Nice last week, and it was great to see Sam Bennett take two superb stage wins, I knew he had it in him.. :-) Turns out that he was struggling to adapt to the cold in the first few days after coming back from the UAE, but really caught fire once he warmed up, his second win in particular was stunning, weaving his way through the pack and coming after Démare with a powerful burst in the last 100m.

Groenewegen was also brilliant in the first two days, he looked super-strong, but staying with the leaders on stage two took a lot out of him and he was dead in the finish on Tuesday he said. How impressive were Sky though, Rowe, Kwait and Bernal ripped the race apart in the winds, Rowe has looked good ahead of the Classics to come, Bernal looks super strong too, blowing the race to smithereens like a man 20kgs heavier than he is in the winds, and dancing up the Turini to seal a superb victory.

The Race

Luck plays a massive part in this race - an untimely puncture or one of the many nervous crashes can put paid to your chances, just ask Mark Cavendish who was in the leading group approaching the foot of the Poggio last year. The peloton went either side of a traffic island and Cavendish didn't see the split on time and went straight in to the traffic island bollard, hitting it with such force he went flying over the handlebars, while his shoe flew off and landed on the bollard.

First run in 1907, it is known as 'The Sprinters Classic' with the Giro Di Lombardia in the Autumn known as 'The Climbers Classic'. But as we know, it's not just sprinters win the MSR and it's not just climbers win Lombardia! Eddy Merckx has the most wins in the race with seven, more recently Eric Zabel has won four, but famously threw away a fifth title when celebrating too early, Oscar Freire mugging him on the line. Sean Kelly has two wins, the best of which was after his breath-taking descent of the Poggio in 1992, showing that the Poggio can decide winners coming down it, as well as up it.

John Degenkolb became the second German in two years to win the race in 2015 after Gerard Ciolek in 2013, joining Eric Zabel and Rudi Altig as the only German winners of the race. Before Vincenzo Nibali last year, Pippo Pozzato was the last Italian winner of the race in 2006, which marked the end of a good run for the Italians, with Petacchi winning in 2005, Bettini in 2003 and Cippolini in 2002. And in 2017 Michal Kwiatkowski became the first ever Polish rider to win the race with his lunge on the finish line beside Alaphilippe and Sagan

The Route

The route is exactly the same as last year, which makes my job nice and easy for this part, copy and paste! So it's back to the classic route again - the road leaves Milan and meanders along for 118kms until the start of the Turchino, a long but easy climb which tops out with 142kms gone and then dives down to the coast for 80kms or so of flat racing.

At the 240km mark, when most races are long finished, they are only just getting to the serious part of the race. First up, the three 'Capi' - the Capo Mele, Cervo and Berta, but they shouldn't really trouble most of the peloton. With 266kms gone though they face the first big 'reducer' of the day, the Cipressa. 5.6kms long at an average of 4.1%, we should see some early attacks go and should see the peloton lose maybe a quarter of whoever's left.

A quick descent and they are back on the coast again for the flat run to the Poggio. Any breakaway riders need to work extremely hard here as every second counts on the Poggio. With just over 10kms to go they turn right off the main coastal road as the road forks in two and start the Poggio di Sanremo. It's not that long as just 3.7kms, nor that hard at just 3.7% average (max of 8%), but the fact that it comes after 285kms of riding that makes it tough. It starts steady enough but rises in gradient at various points on the way up.

Once over the top it's the "kamikaze" descent, as Séan would say, back down to Sanremo, there's only 5.4kms to go from the top. At the bottom, there are just over 2kms left to the finish on the Via Roma, so not much time to get organised, it's every man for himself. There's that infamous right-hander with 750m to go, but after that it's more or less dead straight to the line, with the sprinters hugging the right-hand side of the road almost every year.

The Weather

Doesn't look there should be any excuses weather-wise, it looks like it's going to be a cool, but perfect day for racing. No rain is forecast all week, and the wind is only a gentle breeze, around 4-5mph, coming from the south-west. It does mean though, with a SW wind, that it will be in their faces coming off the Poggio and for most of the last 5kms. Low as it is at just 5mph, it will still work slightly against any lone attackers on the run to the finish. 

Course Details

Contenders and Favourites

Right, where do we start? With Deceuninck Quickstep? With Astana? The winner's probably going to come from one or the other right? The seem to be winning everything they enter at the moment, with strength in depth most other teams only can dream about. 19 wins for Astana (41 top 3s), 18 wins for DQS (33 top 3s).. Bahrain Merida, AG2R and Katusha have only one win each, poor old Sunweb have none yet.. (scratch that, they won the Nokere Koerse on Thursday with Cees Bol winning the uphill cobbled sprint, beating Ackermann - congrats Sunweb!)

How' it going to play out? Well, there are several ways that this race can be won.. A long range break of strong riders gets a big lead over the peloton and holds on to fight out the finish. I make that about a 3% chance of happening. A late attack before the top of the Poggio - be it a solo attack like Nibs last year, or a small group of 3 or 4 like two years ago when Sagan got away with Alap and Kwiat. I make that about a 25% chance of happening, if Sagan, a DQS rider (Alap) and an Astana rider go, who is going to chase?

There's also a slim chance (maybe 5%) that someone manages to escape on the descent and tries to solo to the finish.. But the most likely outcome, given the amount of sprinters in the lineup, is that it will be brought back together for a mass gallop from a reduced peloton of maybe 50-60 riders. That's about a 67% chance based on the maths above I think!

So Astana - a strong team here of course, with Alexey Lutsenko leading the squad, a rider who has a chance of 'doing a Nibali' and soloing away from the pack over the top of the Poggio, he just looks so strong at the moment. That stage he won in Tirreno was just ridiculous, solo on his own for some 38kms, crashing twice in the last 13kms and still managing to find the strength to win the sprint at the finish. Commentary was right, it was a win we won't forget for a while..

I think though that his chances of doing that on Sunday are low, there's no way he'll be allowed solo away from this peloton you'd think.. But then Nibali did it last year and Luts looks far stronger than Nibs did this time last year. But if he descends like he did in Tirreno coming down the Poggio he's going to end up in someone's front yard or flat against a cliff-face.. I can't have him at just 33/1.

They might have a better chance in trying to make the race really hard (Lutsenko to attack on the Cipressa?) and then try to whittle down the sprinter numbers in order to give Magnus Cort Neilsen a shot in a reduced sprint. MCN has a superb stage win to his name in Paris-Nice, getting in the break of the day with Thomas de Gendt and attacking hard in the last kilometre to drop his companions and solo to victory.. didn't even wait for the sprint which he'd have won anyway probably.

He finished 8th here last year (7th in the sprint) and 11th the year before (8th in the sprint) and as good as that stage win was in P-N, I think that's his best chance of winning races these days, getting in strong breaks, hoping they make it all the way, and then being the strongest guy at the finish (like his TDF stage win last year). I can't see him finishing in the top 3 in a sprint here, unless he does get away with a small group late on, but that's unlikely to happen.

DQS are mob-handed of course with riders who could win this race, with the bookies giving an almost equal second-favourite rating to Julian Alan Philippe and Elia Viviani, around the 6/1 mark. Alaphilippe has been in spectacular form this year of course, winning stages in San Juan and Colombia before a powerhouse win in Strade Bianche, and two more stages in T-A.

His first was in an uphill sprint ahead of GVA, his second, that crazy bunch sprint win in stage 6, when Richeze stretched it out, got him a little gap and he just went full gas to the line (left). It seems there is nothing Alaphilippe can't do at the moment, he attacks out on the course like in Strade, he sprints uphill, he sprints on the flat.. And he has come very close here before, being edged out in that unbelievable, three-way, lunging, leaning sprint in 2017. 

What do they do with him though? What does he do himself more like it, because I think Alaphilippe races with his heart, and not his ear-piece or team orders. Will he try attacking at that water-tank point on the climb where most attacks seem to go? He'll need someone like Sagan to go with him in order to stay away though I think, and Sagan will do him in a sprint, maybe 8 times out of 10. No point in waiting for the sprint this time, he won't get another flukey lead like in T-A. 

It looks on paper that Elia Viviani is probably a better bet for them, to get Alap to attack on the Poggio, see how it goes, if he gets away, great, they have a chance, if not, he knocks it back and joins the leadout, of which he plays a major part usually. Viviani has been in pretty good form too, with a win in every race he has entered this year, including the hilly Cadel Evans race and a sprint win in T-A, beating Sagan and Gaviria (and not much else really).

But what happened on stage 5 was very curious.. Viviani reported after that he had said to Alap during the stage that he wasn't feeling great and to go for it, yet he managed to sprint to 3rd.. He got detached a little when Sagan interrupted their leadout, but it was poor positioning (or maybe indeed, tired legs) in the last 500m that cost him. 9th (6th in the sprint) in 2017, he got lost in the last 500m last year and finished down in 19th.

Was it that he was just a bit tired? Or was it a master stroke by DQS (which was maybe suggested by them afterwards) to fool everyone else, whilst also getting favours in the bank for Viviani to get a strong leadout to work for his win in the Tricolore on Via Roma on Saturday..? Sounds perfect.. 

But they also have other options, such is their strength in depth - Phiippe Gilbert is desperate to try to add MSR to his palmarés and is in good form this year too. 3rd here in 2008 and 2011, his recent record hasn't been as great, but he has been unlucky too with crashes. Winner of a sprint stage in La Provence, 8th (and very active) in OHN, he had a steady training ride for a week in P-N, helping make that split in stage 2 that saw only 7 riders contest the sprint, he finished 3rd behind DG and Garcia Cortina. 

He cannily got himself in the break on the penultimate stage, and when the lead ballooned over 5 minutes he was provisional leader on the road for quite a while. But the gradient on the Turini was too much and he eventually slipped back to 15th on the final day. But he's another who can attack early, be it as early as the Cipressa to shake things up, or on the Poggio.. If he gets away with the likes of Lutsenko, they will be tough to pull back.

They also have Zdenek Stybar who is flying (OHN winner and 4th in Strade), Yves Lampaert, Tim 'The Tractor' Declercq and Max Richeze. There's a pretty good chance we'll see almost all of them still in the race going up, and probably down the Poggio, Viviani could have a monster leadout on the Via Roma. 

Bora Hansgrohe - they come here with a very solid plan A, and an almost equally solid plan B.. Peter Sagan has been the favourite for the race ever since the prices came out several months back. His combination of attacking power on the Poggio and his ability to win from a sprint finish makes him almost the perfect rider for MSR. 2nd twice, 4th twice, 6th, 10th, 12th, 17th - 17th is the lowest he has finished here in the last 8 years. 2nd to Kwiat will have hurt a lot in 2017, 2nd to Ciolek in 2013 will also have hurt - he really would have been expected to win both of those sprints. 

But 291kms can blunt even the greatest, even when they are at their best. And we may not be seeing Sagan at his best at the moment. His only win this year was back in the TDU in January, and a bout of illness picked up training in Spain saw him miss more than a week's training, making him a little under-prepared coming in to T-A. A badly timed mechanical on the first stage, which he was one of the favourites for, saw him roll home on his own in 155th, he then managed to get up to finish 2nd behind Viv in the 2nd stage sprint, and 5th in the Alap stage 5 sprint. 

But he doesn't look to be at 100%, he doesn't look happy on the bike either. So Bora should really be considering a strong plan B with Sam Bennett. Four wins already this year, two in Paris-Nice beating most of the guys he'll be up against here, he looks to be coming to the boil nicely. He took a few days in P-N to adjust to the cold after coming from the UAE he said, his legs were dead on the first two stages, but when he got warmed up, he was sensational.

There are worries of course that he might not get over the Poggio with the main peloton, but he coped very well with the hills of stage 6 of P-N, which included an 8km climb at 3%, 19kms from the finish, as well as several other tough climbs before that. He said himself he felt really good on the climbs that day, and he has done well in hilly races in the past too of course, winning that stage in the Tour of Britain for example. He is similar to the likes of Viviani, Cavendish, Kristoff and Démare, so I think if they rally around him and he has the legs he had in P-N, he can get over the Poggio in contention.

The plan should be like DQS's - get Sagan to give it a go over the top of the Poggio to see if it sticks. The super-strong and very experienced Jempy Drucker, Daniel Oss, Oscar Gatto, Marcus Burghardt and Maciej Bodnar will look after Sam, and if it comes back together, they all need to rally around Sam. Drucker and Sagan lead him out, and he finishes it off. Drucker said after their last win in P-N "I think I start to know how @Sammmy_Be wants to be delivered...and he begins to trust & follow me".  Fingers crossed he does, I'm on at 50/1 as I tweeted last Thursday before his price tumbled, he's now around 11/1.

Next in the betting is Caleb Ewan, and the little Aussie was very unlucky last year not to have landed his first Monument. Easily winning the sprint behind Nibali, the anguish of what might have been was clear to see. He has stated this week that this is the only Monument he is going for this year and it is his primary focus for the first half of the season. 

Winner of that uphill killer to the Hatta Dam in the UAE Tour, he went to P-N with high hopes, but finished 2nd to Groenewegen on the first stage and 2nd to Bennett on the third stage. He got lost in stage 6 and was out of the sprint, then abandoned on the penultimate stage to save the legs. He is lightweight enough to deal better than most with the Poggio, but is he fast enough this year to win?

He's been beaten by most of the other sprinters here this year, including Gaviria and Viviani in the UAE Tour, and I think that he'll find a few too fast for him again, if he makes the sprint. I'd want 12/1 or so on him, not the 7/1 he is. Backed up by an ok rather than stellar Lotto Soudal team, he'll have Adam Hansen, Jens Keukeleire and Tosh Van Der Sande looking after him, but they're no DQS or Bora and I think he'll be on his own at the finish. 

Fernando Gaviria and Alexander Kristoff are double weapons for UAE Emirates, depending on how it pans out. If it comes to the sprint, they could have one, or both in contention. If both, then we should see Kristoff doing a monster pull inside the last kilometre to try to put Gaviria in to position to challenge for the win, we know he's got a kick that should take him close. It looked like he had a massive chance of victory in 2016, but crashed on the last corner, then finished 2nd in the sprint behind Kristoff to finish 5th behind the Kwiat trio. 

He's been quite hit and miss this season though, winning two sprints in San Juan and the first sprint in the UAE Tour, but has't been able to land the win in four sprints since, being beaten by Viviani and Bennett. He does seem to be able to get over the hills better than most, but to me he's missing a little something.. that dominant kick, the confidence a sprinter needs.

Alexander Kristoff landed an 80/1 touch for me in this five years ago, a finish I'll never forget. And with his 2nd behind Degenkolb in 2015, 4th place in 2017 (won the sprint for 4th), 4th in 2018 and a 6th, 6th and 8th place on his record, he hasn't finished outside the top 8 in the last 8 times he's entered this race. He really is mr. dependable, despite his size - his power gets him over the top just about in contention and he works his way in to position for the sprint with skill and stealth.

His role this year looks to be the leadout-man-deluxe for Gaviria. The leadout he gave Gaviria in stage 2 of the UAE was superb, launching a full-on sprint himelf about 300m out, catching the likes of Viviani off guard. If both he and Gaviria can get over the Poggio together, they will be a big danger in this sprint and they can pull off a top 3. Even if Kristoff is on his own, he's also capable of a top 6 finish again. But the rest of the squad, bar maybe Ulissi, isn't up to much.. I can see them being on their own coming to the finish, and if Gav loses AK's wheel, it could be all over. 

Then we have a gaggle of riders around the 16-20/1 mark, with Dylan Groenewegen being one of the more fancied of those. Groenewegen has been in great form this year too, his performances in the early stages of P-N were superb, helping blow things apart in the wind and winning two sprint stages. He did blow his lights though in that effort on stage 2 though and had nothing for the sprint the next day and finished 9th. 

He won a stage in Valenciana and the Algarve, but was caught out in KBK by Jungels heroics and Doull and Terpstra's late attack that hung on for 2nd and 3rd. He has the lightweight build (despite looking quite chunky) and the power to be up there come the descent to the finish, but how much will he have left in the legs after 291kms? Well, the stage to Chartres he won in the TDF last year was over 231kms, when he beat Gaviria, Sagan, Démare, Degenkolb and Greipel. But that looks to me like the furthest distance he has ever raced over, he's not done MSR before.. 

I'm not sure he'll make the finish. The team have already got their excuses in, saying that this is a 'learning race' for him, and that he will be riding it with a view to being competitive in the future. I'm wondering whether they think the distance os too much for him, as I fear it is. They also have Wout Van Aert and Danny Van Poppel, but I think the distance will see to WVA's chances, and DVP will not win a sprint of this calibre, unless he has managed to slip away in a small group. 

Another sprinter at 16/1 is Arnaud Démare, a former winner of this race of course, back in 2016, albeit with the 'alleged' assistance of the team car to get up the Cipressa after a crash had taken him out of the race. Despite several riders (and power meter data) saying he took a very fast sticky bottle two up the climb to catch back on, it was never proven as fact in the investigation and he has kept his win.

Not a great team with him, not a lot of racing done this year (just 11 road races) and no wins, although he has finished 2nd three times. He was quite easily caught and passed by Bennett in P-N stage 6, he tends to have to go long in his sprints and leaves himself open to be sucker-punched near the line. He might not even make it to the sprint, but if he does, I think there are several faster than him.

Sonny Colbrelli and Vincenzo Nibali form a strong two-man front for Bahrain Merida, but they will need an awful lot of things to go right for them. Colbrelli won't win a sprint with all the big guns in it, so he'll have to try to get away with a smaller group on the Poggio, which he's unlikely to do. Nibali has had a very quiet start to the season as he prepares for the Giro, it would be a massive suprise if he was just allowed to ride away like he did last year two years running. 

Sky have a few contenders of course, not least 2017 winner Michal Kwiatkowski. He was flying in P-N, and were it not for the Turini, he'd probably have taken home the winners' jersey instead of Bernal. He is similar of course to Sagan and Alap, as we saw when they got away together two years ago, he has the punch, and more importantly, he has the kick at the finish. He too will probably try a dig on the Poggio, no point in waiting for the sprint, he won't win it, and they don't have a sprinter with them. Luke Rowe is riding well, as is TGH, Ganna and Puccio, but Doull came down in a crash on Thursday in Nokere Koerse and lost some skin, he might be a bit stiff and sore after it. 

Matteo Trentin is similar to Colbrelli - loves a hilly day with a sprint at the end of it, but these hills aren't really tough enough to shed enough sprinters for him to have a strong chance of victory. Don't get me wrong, he'll be up there for sure, he shouldn't have any problems (barring incidents) in being part of the final sprint, but there will be others faster than him. He might be worth a poke e/w though with the bookies offering four places, he might be able to sneak a place, and if it all goes a bit crazy, he might find himself in a small group as one of the best sprinters. 

M-S also have Daryl Impey (best result only 21st though in 7 attempts), Luka Mezgec and Chris Juul Jensen, but I can't see any of them winning it.. What about Alejandro Valverde for Movistar riding his first ever MSR? He will probably keep that jersey prominent at the front, he'll try a dig on the Poggio (or maybe even the Cipressa), but it's unlikely he'll get away. If he does though, and with Valverde it's never wise to rule him out, and takes a small group with him, his sprint could land him a top 3 finish. 

Former winner of this race, John Degenkolb leads a strong-looking Trek team, with Jasper Stuyven, Gianluca Brambilla, Toms Skujins and Edward Theuns. Degenkolb seems to know how to get over the hills pretty well, and has some really strong guys to look after him. Stuyven, Brambilla, Theuns or Skujins can be their Poggio attackers (or maybe even earlier), if it comes back together he has Stuyven, Theuns and his key leadout man Koen de Kort to look after him.

He was 4th in that hilly P-N stage won by Bennett, and has won a race in Provence earlier in the year, so if you're looking for a man with pedigree at a decent price, Degenkolb might give you a return on your money each-way at 33/1 with the bookies paying 4 places. 

Who else can get involved? Michael Matthews, Tom Dumoulin and Soren Kragh Andersen could all go well for Sunweb, Matthews can get to the finish (he's come close in the past), but he just doesn't have the speed any more to beat the likes of Viviani and Bennett in a flat sprint. Dumoulin might try something on the Cipressa or Poggio, but it will be nigh on impossible for him to get away. Same goes for the CCC boys and Greg Van Avermaet in particular, he'll try a dig or two, but won't get anywhere and will not be involved in the sprint. He's got other plans to think about in the coming weeks.

Alessandro de Marchi will probably get in the break of the day along with Androni, Bardiani and Novo Nordisk guys, but that's all we'll see of them I think in this race. Niki Terpstra is probably in training for the cobbled Classics to come and Lilian Calmejane might try an attack on the Cipressa, but that's all we'll probably see of Direct Energie, possibly we might see Nicolo Bonifazio in a reduced sprint. 

Sebastian Langeveld and Alberto Bettiol seem to be in great form for EF Education First, pulling off some great TT rides in recent weeks. In the final TT in Tirreno Langeveld came home in a stunning time to take provisional 2nd, but was subsequently pushed down by his team-mate Bettiol who took a stunning 2nd place. Langeveld has finished 14th twice here, he should be good enough to be near the front in the last 10kms.

Bettiol is flying, coming 3rd in the uphill sprint of stage 2 of T-A, behind Alap and GVA, but this is a different matter entirely. Still, they are two dark horses (in very bright pink) to keep an eye out for. And actually Dan McLay, Sacha Modolo and Simon Clarke are three others that could be involved in the shake-up. 

A few other outsiders to consider - Oliver Naesen is in great shape at the moment and is sure to try something on the ascent or descent of the Poggio, Clement Venturini is AG2Rs sprint man if it comes back together. Matej Mohoric could also try a 'Nibali' for Bahrain-Merida, he's one of the best descenders in the peloton. Giacomo Nizzolo or Enrico Gasparotto might be Dimension Data's best hopes of pulling off a surprise. Or how about Davide Cimolai at a massive 325/1? He sprinted to 2nd in that sprint won by Alaphilippe in T-A, and finished 8th here in 2015.. always fun to have a big priced one running for us.. 

A very long race, that comes down to who has the mental and physical fortitude over the last 10kms or so. You need luck, you need to find the right lines going up and down the Poggio and you need to keep calm and wait for the right opportunity. You need a team that will get you to the bottom of the Poggio in a good position, which may entail chasing back on if dropped on the Cipressa, and then look after you all the way up so you're as fresh as you can be after 290kms and ready for when it comes to a sprint.

A leadout of 2 or 3 riders is a luxury, if you have them, you have a strong chance. But it also comes down to how your legs respond when you say go.. many sprinters legs have turned to jelly when they ask the question. 

Sagan has question marks about him, but he'll probably try on the Poggio and they have the backup plan of Bennett. Alap is such great shape I wouldn't be surprised to see him ride away from them all. Viviani has a great chance if Alap doesn't get away, Bennett has a great chance if Sagan doesn't (and if he stays in contention).

I think it will come to a sprint, Kristoff and Gaviria will be there, I'm hoping Bennett is, but I'm not sure Ewan or Groenewegen will be. But it looks to me like this is another race the boys in blue (and green, white and red) will dominate at the finish and Viviani could well have 3 or 4 men to lead him out, and that might make the difference. And maybe, just maybe John Degenkolb can land a top 4 too. 

Recommendations:

I'm on at 50/1 each-way on Bennett since last Thursday, I still think he's worth a bet at 11s, but I'd take the top 3 at 11s rather than the 9s with 4 places, I think he either is up there and finishes in the first 3, or is dropped. 1pt e/w on him

1pt e/w on Elia Viviani at 6/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

0.3pts e/w on John Degenkolb at 33/1 with the bookies paying 4 places

0.2pts e/w on Davide Cimolai at 325/1 with Betfair or Paddy Power paying 4 places. 

Matchbets

Viviani to beat Ewan, Kristoff to beat Groenewegen and Cort Neilsen to beat Roelandts - 2pts at evens

Dumoulin to beat Bardet - 2.2pts at 8/11

Bennett to beat Gaviria - 2pts at 6/5