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Published on Thursday, 16 March 2017 09:25

Milano Sanremo

Saturday 18th March

Milan to Sanremo, 291Km

I'd not been looking forward to writing this preview..! A monster race with a monster cast of potential winners..So many riders that are in with a chance of doing something in this race, I know it's going to be a long one, and not easy to pick a winner!

Milano Sanremo... 'La Classicisima di Primavera'. The first monument of the season starts Saturday morning in Milan and some six and a half hours, and 291 kilometres later they come charging down off the Poggio to the finish line on Via Roma in San Remo in a well-worn path they have been treading for 105 editions. 

It's a race steeped in history and prestige, a race notorious for its distance and its climax over the ascent, and descent of the Poggio, a name famous in cycling folklore. Sometimes raced in harsh, northern-Italy-in-March winter conditions, it's often referred to as 'the sprinters Classic' but you have to be a real hard man to win this one.

Conditions got so bad in 2013 that the race had to be stopped and riders transferred by buses and cars to further along the route until they were able to race on the roads again. Many didn't finish the course.. but as bad as that was, more finished that day (135) than finished in the 2014 running of the race, with only 114 finishing, the lowest number of finishers the race has seen in modern times. Heavy, cold rain took its toll and it was the hard Norwegian Alexander Kristoff who triumphed at 80/1 for me that day..!

Last year's race saw it's fair share of controversy, when the race winner Arnaud Démare was accused by Tossato and Capecchi of taking a tow from his team car on the approach to the Poggio after a crash at the foot of the Cipressa, with an investigation subsequently being launched in to the situation and power meter data being scrutinised, but ultimately the result remained unchanged.

And there was a touch of fortune too with Démare's victory, as coming to the last bend it looked like it might be between Sagan and Gaviria, with Gaviria looking particularly strong.. But then, disaster for the young Quick-Step man as he briefly looked around and Van Avermaet cut across his front wheel, sent him sprawling to the ground and with him my 25/1 bet. Further misfortune was bestowed upon my bets in the sprint, when Nacer Bouhannni looked to be in the best position on GVA's wheel, but as you can see in the video above, with 100m to go his bike kicks violently as he unships his chain and loses all chance of winning. 

There was the usual flurry of attacks over the Poggio, with Andrea Fedi kicking things off with 7.5kms to go, then Gallopin and Kwiatkowski had a go, and all the way to the last 500 the attacks were coming thick and fast, with Nibali, Cancellara, Sagan, Trentin and EBH all having a go. 

We have a stellar lineup here this year - former winners Alexander Kristoff, Arnaud Démare, John Degenkolb and Mark Cavendish, along with Boonen, Sagan and Swift who have finished 2nd in this race. Fernando Gaviria, Michael Matthews (3rd in '15), GVA, Nacer Bouhanni, André Greipel, Julian Alaphilippe, Michal Kwiatkowski, Philippe Gilbert, Sonny ColbrelliFabio Felline and lots, lots more. And they are all in great form so far this year, with most of them having notched a win or more. 

The Race

Luck plays a massive part in this race - an untimely puncture or one of the many nervous crashes can put paid to your chances. In 2015, a crash by Andy Fenn coming off the Cipressa saw a number of riders come down heavily and suddenly Thomas, Swift and Luke Rowe had a gap and they pressed on as a three-man TT. As they hit the Cipressa, Stybar and Van Avermaet attacked out of the peloton and quickly caught them with 26kms to go and almost at the same time Arnaud Démare came down in a crash and a mechanical meant it was the end of his race, whereas last year he was the benefactor of other's misfortune (and a very sticky bottle).

Kristoff became the first Norwegian winner of MSR in 2014 and added his name to an illustrious list of winners. First run in 1907, it is known as 'The Sprinters Classic'  with the Giro Di Lombardia in the Autumn known as 'The Climbers Classic'. But as we know, it's not just sprinters win the MSR and it's not just climbers win Lombardia!

Eddy Merckx has the most wins in the race with seven, more recently Eric Zabel has won four, but famously threw away a fifth title when celebrating too early, Oscar Freire mugging him on the line. Sean Kelly has two wins, the best of which was after his breath-taking descent of the Poggio in 1992, showing that the Poggio can decide winners coming down it, as well as up it.

John Degenkolb became the second German in two years to win the race in 2015 after Gerard Ciolek in 2013, joining Eric Zabel and Rudi Altig as the only German winners of the race. But of course Degenkolb missed out on the race last year after his horror crash with the car while out training. Pippo Pozzato was the last Italian winner of the race in 2006 the end of a good run for the Italians, with Petacchi winning in 2005, Bettini in 2003 and Cippolini in 2002.

The Route

The route is more or less the same as it has been for the last 3 years. It takes in the Cipressa and the Poggio, but without the Pompeiana that was supposed to be added in 2014, but was subsequently removed because of the poor condition of the road. The climb of La Manie was introduced in 2008, which helped the puncheurs to shed some of the sprinters in the editions that followed, but was dropped again in 2014, when the Pompeiana was supposed to be introduced. The course is the same distance as last year's edition at 291kms, although an avalanche caused a 9km reduction in last year's final distance. 

So it's back to the classic route again - the road leaves Milan and meanders along for 118kms until the start of the Turchino, a long but easy climb which tops out with 142kms gone and then dives down to the coast for 80kms or so of flat racing. 

At the 240km mark, when most races are long finished, they are only just getting to the serious part of the race. First up, the three 'Capi' - the Capo Mele, Cervo and Berta, but they shouldn't really trouble most of the peloton. With 266kms gone though they face the first big 'reducer' of the day, the Cipressa. 5.6kms long at an average of 4.1%, we should see some early attacks go and should see the peloton lose maybe a quarter of whoever's left. 

A quick descent and they are back on the coast again for the flat run to the Poggio. Any breakaway riders need to work extremely hard here as every second counts on the Poggio. With just over 10kms to go they turn right off the main coastal road as the road forks in two and start the Poggio di Sanremo. It's not that long as just 3.7kms, nor that hard at just 3.7% average (max of 8%), but the fact that it comes after 285kms of riding that makes it tough. It starts steady enough but rises in gradient at various points on the way up.

Once over the top it's the "kamikaze" descent, as Séan would say, back down to Sanremo, there's only 5.4kms to go from the top. At the bottom, there are just over 2kms left to the finish on the Via Roma, so not much time to get organised, it's every man for himself. There's that infamous right-hander with 750m to go, but after that it's more or less dead straight to the line, with the sprinters hugging the right-hand side of the road almost every year.

The Weather

The riders will be happy to hear that the forecast for Sunday's race is very good, with temperatures expected to be around 17-18° and no rain expected. 

The wind isn't too much to worry about, as it only gets up to about 8mph tops, but as it's a south-westerly, they will have a cross/headwind on the way to the finish and a headwind coming off the Poggio.  

Course Details

Contenders and Favourites

This should be a great race - so many riders in with chances, so many riders in great form, so many riders who have made this their focal point of their spring campaigns.. It has lots of hills, it has a crucial hill 6kms from the finish, but it is mostly likely to end in a sprint of some sort, solo winners are few and far between in this race. Last year it was almost won by a very select group, it's possible that if Gaviria, Van Avermaet and Sagan had not got caught up in that crash on the final bend whether the second group would have caught them, and whether Démare would even have finished in the top 6. So maybe the most crucial point of the race again this year will be that final bend and who gets through it in the first 6, rather than the hills themselves. 

It's a real race of attrition though in the final 50kms or so, with the hills coming one after the other. And it's not just the hills that can catch you out, as I mentioned already above, luck plays a big part in this race, as the narrow, twisty roads and a flying, nervous peloton can see chances disappear in a touch of wheels, or an over-shot corner. A strong team is important, to keep you in the right position on the Cipressa and the Poggio, but generally once over the Poggio it is every man for himself and teams are lucky to have 2 or 3 riders left. A great illustration of that is that in the top 20 last year, there were riders from 18 different teams, with only Vichot and Démare for FDJ and Bakelants and Montaguti for AG2R with more than 1 rider there. 

Favourite for this race for months now has been Peter Sagan, and with good reason - would he have won last year, were it not for the crash? It's very possible, Démare and Bouhanni and the rest might not have got back on, had they not had that distraction with the crash. 2nd, 4th, 19th, 12th and 17th in the past here, he is tailor made for the course, he just needs a touch of luck I think and he could well win this. His form has been excellent, as usual, being the real star performer in Tirreno, not Quintana, with two superb stage wins and a close 2nd to Gaviria, and 3rd on stage 2.

Winner of KBK, 2nd in OHN, he's on fire and will take all the beating again. His team wouldn't be the strongest here, but you know that Marcus Burghardt, Sam Bennett, Cesare Benedetti and Maciej Bodnar will put in a shift for him. Bennett himself could have a chance if anything were to happen to Sagan, if he can last the 291kms and is near the front coming to the sprint, he could have a chance based on his sprint win in Paris-Nice. Sagan varies between 3/1 and 5/1 depending on who you bet with, 3/1 is very short, if you were to take the 5/1, I'd maybe go each-way, just in case he gets pipped by one of the faster sprinters.

And that faster sprinter could well be Fernando Gaviria, who was left in tears after last year's accident (right). I'm hoping so as I called him the winner of this race back in January when he was winning stages in San Juan with devastating speed, and backed him at 9/1. Since then I have not had regrets and am even more confident than ever of a big run from him following his victory in the second last stage on Tirreno.

In a stage that was like a mini Milan Sanremo, with a mini Poggio in the run to the finish, he was brilliant in the finale I thought. Confident enough to let the others scrap amongst themselves coming down the descent and the way he accelerated to catch Sagan, then stick like glue to his wheel all the way to the last few hundred metres was fantastic. He was calm, confident and displayed a ferocious kick to leave Sagan behind. 

He said afterwards "I'm happy to take this victory, it's a well-deserved success for our squad after a week during which we worked and fought hard. This victory gives me confidence for the upcoming races". The data provided by his Velon tracker – a maximum power peak of 1277W during the 260m-long sprint which saw him hit a 69.8km/h top speed – are a testimony of how strong the Quick-Step Floors rider was at the end of a tough stage.

He has a superb team here with him, with Boonen, Alaphilippe, Bauer, Gilbert, Sabatini, Trentin and Vermote, they are sure to be heavily involved at the latter parts of the race. I can see Alaphilippe and/or Gilbert attacking on the Cipressa and the Poggio to wear out the other teams, with Sabatini, Trentin and Vermote playing babysitter to Gaviria. I think he is smart enough and strong enough to be near the front anyway when it comes to the crunch, it's likely we will see him following Sagan's wheel again. If he can get to the last bend in the first 10 he has a massive chance, it's unlikely we'll see him make the same mistake on that final bend again. 

It's quite a jump in the betting then after Gaviria and Sagan, up to 11 or 12/1 for Arnaud Démare, John Degenkob and Alexander Kristoff. Arnaud Démare is the defending champion of course, whether by fair means or foul, and he is sure to go close again on Sunday. Winner of three races already this year, including that chaotic, wind-damaged first stage when he bridged to Alaphilippe on a hill and out-sprinted him, he has also finished in the top 6 on another 6 occassions, and even finished 6th in an ITT in the Algarve. I doubt he has ever been in such good form at this point in the season, and if he can be in the first 5-10 hitting the straight he is sure to be a big danger too. 

His team are going to be his weakspot though, he may well be on his own on the charge down the hill. He has got Delage, Bonnet, Ladagnous and Cimolai, but it certainly isn't a Quick-Step that's for sure, although Cimolai did finish in the top 10 in 2015 when Degenkolb won. Weather conditions should be ideal for him, he seemed to struggle a bit in OHN to get across to Sagan's move when it was cold and wet, and lost out on a great chance of victory

John Degenkolb is well and truly on the way back to his best following his injuries of just over a year ago. His Dubai Tour results read 4th, 4th, 1st, 5th and he followed that with a 5th and a 2nd in the Algarve and 2nd, 3rd and 5th in Paris Nice. It's a 'half a team' I reckon he has with him, as Felline, Stuyven, and De Kort are strong, Coledan, Rast, Alafaci and Van Poppel less so. But if he can embed himself on Stuyven and Felline's wheels in the last 10kms he should get a good tow to the final kilometres. When he won this race in 2015 it was a real slog, a real war of attrition and he won it in his inimitable style of sheer brute force stamping up and down on the pedals. He seems to me to be still missing that massive top-end power though and I think if he's up against some of the faster sprinters he'll be looking at another 4th or 5th place this season. 

Alexander Kristoff landed me a beautiful 80/1 bet in 2014, outgunning Cancellara and Swift in the wet sprint at the end of a brutally hard and wet day. He followed that up with 2nd place here the year after behind Degenkolb, was 8th in 2013 and 6th last year, just behind GVA and Bouhanni. It's a remarkable set of results in this race, finishing no lower than 8th in the four times he has entered this race. He started the season with a bang again, with a 1st and two 2nds in the Etoile de Bessges, and then took two stages in Oman.

It's been a reasonably disappointing return to Europe for him though with a DNF in Omloop and 21st place in KBK, followed by no stage wins in Paris Nice. If the weather was going to be bad for Saturday I'd say he'd have a better chance, but I think he's just missing a little something at the moment and might have to settle for minor honours. 

Nacer Bouhanni was desperately unlucky last year, losing his drivetrain in the last 200m when he was just about to pounce past Roelandts and GVA. He crossed the line thumping his handlebars in frustration, while I thumped the sofa.. I think he was a certainty for the top 3 at worst, and may well have won it. He's been knocking at the door this year, with two 2nds and two 3rds, but finally took his first win of the season in Nokere Korse on Wednesday. He was forced to retire on just the second stage of Paris Nice with illness, apparently he was so weak he almost didn't leave the team bus.

But he went home, rested and recovered and passed medical tests. He was back training again by Wednesday and did a big training ride on Saturday ahead of his participation in Nokere Korse, a race that he now looked a gift price for at 5/2, as he won by about 10 bike lengths (right). That would have been a good confidence booster, not just for him but for those who have backed or are thinking of backing him on Saturday, and now that he seems to have cleared his health issues, you'd have to think he has a big chance again of featuring at the finish. He will just about hang on over the Cipressa and the Poggio, but if he can work his way back to the first 10 in the last kilometre, he's sure to be fighting for the win.  

Mark Cavendish is around the same price as Bouhanni, around 16-18/1 and even though he won a stage in Abu Dhabi, it's been a pretty quiet start to the season for the Manxman. Left frustrated and uninvolved in Dubai, he never got a look in in the Algarve but finally took a win in Abu Dhabi. His Tirreno was a bit of a disaster too, as he was nowhere to be seen on both the 'sprint' stages, not being anywhere near the position he needed to be in in the closing kilometres. 

The final sprint stage in Tirreno to Civatanova Marche was seen as a bit of a warm-up for MSR, and he was not able to keep pace with the attacks at the front in the last 8kms and was not able to contest the finish. It's always a risk to rule out Cavendish, but I'm going to for Saturday, I think he'll struggle on the Poggio again and will not be with the leading group that contests the win. 

Michael Matthews started his season late, as he did last year in Paris Nice, but was unable to reproduce his great results from last year when he took two stages, a 3rd and two 5ths. He did well with a fine 6th on the hilly final stage of Paris Nice that was blown apart by Contador, but he was still unable to beat Colbrelli and Alaphilippe in the sprint for 4th place.. I'm just not sure he has the condition yet to beat the fastest guys here, but he should be close enough to a top 6 placing.

Greg Van Avermaet came very close last year too, but only after he had bumped in to Gaviria and sent him sprawling.He's having a great season and is well able to manage a long, hard race like this so he should be there or thereabouts at the finish, possibly attacking off the Poggio and trying to see if he gets some other strong bodies to go with him. I think though if it goes to a sprint he will not beat Gaviria/Sagan/Kristoff/Bouhanni, so he might have to settle for the minor honours. 

Caleb Ewan, or 'Cabeluan' as Sean Kelly calls him is going to have his work cut out staying with this pack as they charge over the Poggio, but if he can be near the front coming down the hill, he might have some of Michael Albasini, Jens Keukeleire, Matthew Hayman, Luca Mezgec or Daryl Impey to help pull him up to the front and in to contention. If he's there with 300m to go, he has a chance. But I don't think he'll be there.. Instead we could see attacks from those guys mentioned above, with Albasini a likely candidate at the top of the Poggio. They won't be winning either though. 

Sonny Colbrelli could be a real dark horse in this race as the Italian sprinter is having a fine season and his results in MSR aren't bad at all - 12th, 6th, 18th, 9th in the last four years, meaning he has had no problems getting over the Poggio with the leaders, just hasn't had the luck in running over the final kilometres or the power to finish it off. He took a superb win against all the sprinters in Paris Nice though last week, after a tough day in the saddle, bursting through the middle of the road with real power.

He's had top threes in Dubai and Oman and also took a good 4th place in a good 'prep race' for MSR in Nice last Sunday, 'winning' the sprint behind the break. He hasn't a bad team here with him, Gio Visconti should be there on the Poggio for him, and he will have help too possibly from Bozic, Bole, Boaro and Gasparotto. All he needs I think is a bit of luck in the last 2kms to be nearer the top 5 than 15th or 20th and he could well challenge for the first Italian win since Pozzato in 2006. 

Julian Alaphilippe was looking so good in Paris-Nice, but Henao and Contador broke him, but he can't be too unhappy with his week I think. A superb win in the ITT, a 2nd on the tough first stage when he instigated the winning move and a 4th and a 5th place, it was enough to see him take the points and the young riders jersey as well as 5th on the GC. He also rode well in Abu Dhabi to take 5th place, He has never done MSR before though, and he said himself in a quote this week that he was going there 'to learn', so it's hard to know how he'll go here. Also, with Gaviria having a real live chance of victory for the Quick-Steppers, Alaphilippe will be expected to help out I'd imagine, maybe chasing down attacks on the Cipressa or the Poggio. If he happens to get in a strong break though and it sticks, he can sit on wheels and play the 'working for Gaviria' line and could have a chance. 

Michal Kwiatkowski is in the best form he's been in for two years it seems, with a superb win in Strade Bianche and a fine 2nd place overall in the Algarve. He didn't have the best Tirreno-Adriatico, but maybe he was saving himself for this. He gave it a real good go last year, attacking at the top of the Poggio and charging down the descent at break-neck speed, but was reeled in with just over a kilometre to go and eventually finished in 40th place, a placing that disguises his efforts.

He DNF'ed in '13 and '14 and was 67th in 2015 and I am not sure he'll be featuring here this year, despite his Strade Bianche win. There's something about Kwiat that makes me worry that he thinks 'job done' now after Strade and doesn't need to push himself, like he seemed to do for a year after becoming World Champion.  

Fabio Felline has an outside chance too of course should anything happen to Degenkolb, if it's a really hard day he might find himself on the right side of a split. He was aggressive in Tirreno and has had some good results this year, but I think it will be all about Degenkolb for Trek. Edvald Boasson Hagen tried late on last year too just after Kwiatkowski was reeled in but didn't get far, eventually finishing 26th. He hasn't had a blistering start to this season though and his record here is 10th place at best in 2015, I think he'll be outside the top 10 again.

Magnus Cort Neilsen might have a chance here too for Orica-Scott, especially if Caleb Ewan gets dropped on the run to the finish, but I think it might be a bit tough for the young Dane, he's not done a race of this distance before. Niccolo Bonifazio could be another outsider, but he's a real long-shot. 

Ben Swift has a good record in this race too, having finished a very close 2nd last year and 3rd in 2014, but how will he get on with his new UAE team this year? He has strong support from he likes of Diego Ulissi, Matej Mohoric and Sacha Modolo (who could have a chance in the sprint too) and he knows his way around this course and finishing straight. With a bit of luck in running he could be a contender for a podium spot again. With his consistency, the 33/1 with those paying 4 places might be of interest to Swift fans, but I'm leaving him.  

Cannondale has lost their main man for this, Sep Vanmarcke, as he is still suffering the effects of his crash in Strade Bianche, he has damaged ribs and struggles to breath. It's hard to see any of the others winning though, Rigoberto Uran will not get away, nor win a sprint, same with Simon Clarke and Tom-Jelte Slagter, and Toms Skujins would prefer a day like a few years ago in the cold and snow to make it a hard-man's race! 

And finally, what about Jurgen Roelandts? The man who looked like the possible winner last year with about 100m to go, eventually finishing a hugely impressive 3rd. He must have been about 100/1 last year, he's 125/1 with PP for this year. It would be a big ask to repeat his podium two years running, but he's in great shape, taking 15th in OHN and 11th in KBK, 4th in Murcia and took 3rd and 10th in the two sprint finishes in Tirreno. He's got the physique and the power to be going strong at the end of a tough race like this, so why not at 125/1, he's generally 80/1 and as low as 66/1.

Conclusion

So, lots in with chances as you can see, I think we will see a similar race to last year when the strongest Classics men will try to blow it up at the top of the Poggio and we get little groups of 2, 3, 4 chasing down the hill, but ultimately about 20 guys will come together in the last kilometre and they'll start preparing for a sprint. Sagan, Gaviria, Bouhanni, Degenkolb and Kristoff will be there, hopefully Roelandts and Colbrelli too, Kristoff and Sagan will probably take it up from 250m out and Gaviria and Bouhanni will come flying past them to finish 1-2! Simple as that...  

I'm on Gaviria at 9/1, 7/1 and 6/1 and I think he really has a massive chance of making up for last year's mistake. He is as short as 3/1 with William Hill (partly because of me maybe..)  but there is 11/2 with Coral and that's worth taking. Not only that, but they are offering 4 places, so if you're a little nervous about the win, 11/2 is an ok price to take each-way with 4 places. Click the banner below to get an account with them if you haven't one already.. I also think Bouhanni has a great chance of a top 4 placing, but he's only 10/1 with Corals, but Skybet are also paying 4 places and he's 16/1 there and that's worth an each-way too. Sonny Colbrelli is my other outsider at 25/1, again with Corals and their 4 places. 

Recommendations:

3pts win on Fernando Gaviria at 11/2 with Corals

0.75pts each-way on Nacer Bouahnni at 16/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

0.3pts each-way on Sonny Colbrelli at 25/1 with Corals paying 4 places

0.2pts each-way on Jurgen Roelandts at 125/1 with PP or take  the 80/1 with Skybet paying 4 places. 

Matchbets

Van Avermaet to beat Pozzato & Lobato to beat Grosu - 3pts at evens

Add Kwiatkowski to beat Wellens to make it a treble at 9/4 - 2pts 

Gilbert to beat Gerrans - 2pts at evens

Cimolai to beat Booner - 2pts at 10/11