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Published on Friday, 26 April 2019 13:13

Liège-Bastogne-Liège

Liège to Liège

Sunday 28th April, 256kms

There was a surprise result last year, as Quick-Step (no surprise there) took the win again, but not with Julian Alaphilippe, one of the favourites on the day. Instead it was the brilliant Bob Jungels who escaped to take an epic win. 

Jungels attacked solo some 20kms out on the Roche-Aux-Faucons climb and somehow managed to hold off the chasers to take QSF's 27th win of the season. The original break was reeled in with 23kms to go as they approached the Roche, then Gilbert attacked, then Henao and then Jungels.. Jungels led over the top and powered down the descent to extend his advantage, as behind they looked at each other to see who would do the chasing. 

With the racing breaking up behind and fruitless attacks from the likes of Valverde being chased down by QSF, Jungels stretched his lead out to 50" with 8kms to go. Dan Martin's race came to an abrupt halt with a mechanical, Vanendert took off solo after Jungels and pulled the gap down to just 19" with less than 3kms to go. Valverde and Alaphilippe traded blows trying to get out after Vanendert, but Jungels just time-trialled his way to the finish.

Valverde and Alaphilippe paid for their efforts as they failed to fight out the finish, instead it was Michael Woods who jumped away to take 2nd, 37" behind Jungels, with Romain Bardet popping up to take 3rd.  

At 256kms long, 'La Doyenne' is the same distance as 2018, 2.5kms shorter than last year, 7.5kms shorter than the 100th edition in 2014. It is the longest of the Ardennes Classics races and indeed one of the longest Classics of the season. The finish used to be on that iconic hill for the last 27 years, finishing in Ans rather than Liege, but this year, in a major change to the race they have reverted back to a true Liege-Bastogne-Liege and finish with a flat run-in to Liege. 

It leaves the Cote de la Roche Aux Faucons as the final climb of the race, which they hit with 15kms to go, but the climbing actually goes on for about another 3kms after the summit, before diving down to a rolling last few kilometres and a flat finish in Liege. But the Roche is preceded by a whole number of tough climbs along the way. Most notably, the Côte de la Redoute, which now comes with 37kms to go and will probably make a selection that might go all the way and decide the winner. 

This is one of the great races - a real race of attrition with nasty climbs coming one after the other for the last 100kms. It's one of the toughest classics which sees GC men battle with classics riders and the list of winners is a who's who of legends - Eddy Merckx has won it 5 times, Moreno Argentin 4 times, Sean Kelly twice. Can Valverde finally make it a famous five wins to take him level with the great Merckx? 

I won't go on and on any more about Mathieu Van Der Poel's win last Sunday in Amstel Gold Race, I'm running out of superlatives for the phenomenoal Dutchman. He was indeed incredible, but a cat-and-mouse game based on inaccurate timings up front by Alaphilippe and Fuglsang contributed massively to his win. Yes, they were probably shattered, Alaphilippe in particular, but that was suicidal the way they threw away a race that should have been decided between them. 

Simon Clarke couldn't believe his luck I'd say to be sitting on the VDP Express train as they roared down the finishing straight, landing him 2nd place at a big 125/1. At least Fuglsang held on to land the e/w money at 25/1, Max Schachmann put in a big, brave ride to try to catch the leaders but fell just one place outside a payout in 5th. Gilbert finished with the main pack, but was a passenger with Alap up the road. 

Impressive rides by Lambrecht, Madouas, De Marchi, Bardet and Kwiat, but also, a little un-noticed, Van Avermaet and Rui Costa who came home on their own 8" ahead of the main pack. There were DNFs for Peter Sagan (exhausted) and Wellens (not feeling well) in what was a truly incredible race. Woods buried himself for Clarke, Vanendert must have had a late problem as he was attacking one minute and finished way down. 

As for Fleche-Wallone, well it was an eventful race, with lots of crashes, but ultimately it came down to the two top riders of the Classics season so far (when Van Der Poel isn't racing) slugging it out once again. Alaphilippe once more getting the better of Fuglsang and winning FW for the second year running. Great ride by Ulissi in 3rd and Lambrecht in 4th, Schachmann showed he's still got the power with a fine 5th and Mollema grinded his way to another top ten on the Mur.

Disappointing rides from Valverde way back in 11th, Sagan who was dropped with 35kms to go and Dan Martin who didn't last much longer. Bad luck for Adam Yates, Eddie Dunbar and Romain Kreuziger who crashed out, I was disappointed not to be able to see what Yates and Dunbar could have done on the final climb. 

The Route

As they head south out of Liège they follow more or less the exact same route as previous years, there is hardly a flat stretch of road to be seen for almost 260kms with a relentless run of of hills. There are many unclassified climbs and hills along the route, but the first classified climb comes after 75kms with the Côte de la Roche en Ardenne, followed by the Cote de Saint Roch after 121kms.

The middle part of the race sees a bunch of climbs come thick and fast between the 161-207km mark, one of which is the new climb that was introduced four years ago, the Col du Rosier. This is the longest climb of the day and comes after 194.5kms, it's 4.4kms long at 5.9%. This is again followed by the Col du Maquisard after 207kms, which is 2.5kms at 5% average. 

Then on to the famous Côte de la Redoute after 219kms - another ridiculously narrow road that is barely wide enough for 4 riders to ride side-by-side. It's a testing 8.9% for 2kms and we could see some attacks go here in an attempt to break things up before the finishing hills like in recent races, as there's just 37kms to go.

The road rolls along over some more bumpy and lumpy hills, crossing the Cote des Forges with 25kms to go. It's then on to the  Côte de la Roche aux Facons with just 16kms to go, another horrible climb (9.3% for 1.5kms, the last 500m average nearly 11%.) But the road dips down a little after the summit and then continues climbs another 100m in altitude before it starts to descend gently at first, then at a much steeper gradient with about 7kms to go.

The road flattens out with about 3.9kms to go and the road rolls and twists its way in to the centre of Liege. With 2.5kms to go they take a sharp left over the bridge on the Meuse river, then sharply right just after 2kms to go, slide on the right side of a big roundabout with 1200m to go, then sharp left just after the Flamme Rouge. From there it's pretty much straight to the line, just curling slightly around to the right. 

The Weather

In contrast to last year, where they raced in really nice weather, it's not looking great for this weekend. In fact, it's forecast to rain there for most of the week and is forecast to rain on Sunday too, getting heavier as the afternoon goes on. The temperature is going to be a chilly 12 degrees and there will be a 15mph cross-wind coming at them for most of the day from the south-west. That means it will be a headwind for a lot of the later part of the stage, and on parts of the Roche, but will be a tail-wind for most of the last 10kms. 

Preview

The race takes a bit of a twist this year with the removal of that final climb up to the finishing straight in Ans, and teams and riders will have to rethink the strategy that's been employed in LBL for years. Having said that, Bob Jungels tore up that script last year, showing that you don't have to wait until the final climb to win this race. With the new course this year though, it should mean that we see full-gas attacks earlier, with the Redoute increasing in importance than in recent years.

It comes with just 37kms to go, and as we've seen a lot in recent races, riders are prepared to go earlier and earlier in races to try to make a decisive move or split the bunch and eliminate potential rivals. Team-mates in the stronger teams can try their luck and see if a strong small break forms, or to give their team leaders the chance to sit in the wheels for a while and save themselves for the Roche. 

This race may well be won though on the uncategorised part of the Roche, when they continue climbing after the top, it does drag on for several kms more and climbs another 100m or so. Riders who get a bit carried away early on the Roche might find themselves struggling when the final attacks come towards the top. Any puncheurs will know that they have to shake off the likes of Matthews and Schachmann or they will probably not be winning the sprint. 

Julian Alaphilippe is once again the favourite, 11/4 this time as opposed to the ridiculously short 8/11 he was for La Fleche on Wednesday, but he landed the money there, is this another licence to print money? He was just 9/2 for this race last year though and failed to finish on the podium, not being able to go with Woods and Bardet on the final climb, but Jungels was ahead so job done for the team. He has been very impressive all season, but the way he threw away Amstel in the last 10kms or so was bizarre, he was riding so much slower than MVDP coming up from behind.

There is talk that he did an extra hard training session on the Friday before Amstel to prepare for Liege, and that it had taken a lot out of him. Maybe that was partly the reason that he didn't go as hard as should have in the closing stages. He seemed to have recovered well by FW on Wednesday though, kicking away to win again. 

He might be getting tired, he might still not be at 100% following his crash, and the other teams need to try to capitalise on that and make this race really hard for him. The strong climbers really need to make him suffer on the Redoute, the Forges and the Roche (and the second part of it) and see what he's got left. In doing so though, and if they fail, they might just reduce it down to a small group that he'll win a sprint from. I'm going to avoid him again though as think he's way too short and this race could turn in to a bit of a lottery. 

His partner in crime on Sunday, and again on Wednesday, Jacob Fuglsang is second favourite now at around 9/2, cut from 7/1 before FW. I gave him the big-up last weekend for Amstel and it almost paid off, but he blew it by listening to bad time gaps from the team car. I think again he was the stronger of the two, something we've seen several times now this year, but he just doesn't seem to know how to win a race. He's either a bit thick and doesn't have the killer instinct of the likes of Valverde, or his team are woefully inept at giving him the right advice in the finale of a race, something that again seemed to be the case in AGR.

He'll be there or thereabouts again on Sunday, he is strong enough to go with (or even lead) the big attacks and may even go from afar on something like the Redoute, but if he's in a two-up again with Alap, he won't beat him with this finish, and if he's in a small group he won't beat the likes of Matthews in a sprint. He did say after FW though that he would reverse things on Sunday, he sounded confident he could finally take the win.

Alejandro Valverde is 10/1 for this, a race he finished 13th in last year, he never really featured. But it is a race he has won four times (as recently as 2017) and has finished 2nd twice and 3rd once. Seven podiums for the World Champion in this race and with a finish that would have suited him down to the ground a few years ago with a tough finale and a sprint finish, the 10/1 looks very tempting indeed. 

But Valverde does not look like the Valverde of old - only one win to his name this year, in the UAE Tour in Feb and 66th in Amstel doesn't bode well, he was never in the reckoning. And in FW he finished 11th, worst result since 2012. 

Michal Kwiatkowski was excellent in AGR too, chasing hard with Trentin and Clarke on their own for a long time, then jumping off and bridging to the leaders on his own, but unfortunately for them the VDP express train was screaming up behind them. Kwiat is in a good mental place though, he was very happy with how the race went for him, despite the result and he has finished 3rd here twice in the past ('14 and '17). 

Does the new finish play more, or less in to his hands now without that pull up to the finish? I think more, he is not afraid to attack from far out and I think we'll see him go with the big moves on the Roche. He's also a very good descender, and as we saw in MSR a few years ago he's capable of a good sprint finish at times. He rode well in FW on Wednesday but just didn't have the kick on the hill, he finished down in 16th.

Bora have a very interesting squad here too, with Max Schachmann their chosen man, he's just 14/1 after a string of good results. Schachmann rode as I thought he might on Sunday, attacking and doing his own thing from a long way out, going after the leaders and pulling out an impressive advantage for a while from the peloton. I really thought he had a big chance of a podium in the last 300m when he came through on MVDP's wheel, but he could only manage 5th in the end, just one outside getting a payout on the e/w. 

I can see him loving this race, and maybe even loving this finish much more than the old course. I am sure he'll be attacking hard in the last 40kms again and will be with the main moves when they go. He is also one of those kinds of guys who can attack on the descent on the run to the finish, and can win from a small group sprint. He's on the shortlist for me again this week for sure, especially after another strong showing in FW on Wednesday.

He's backed up by a very strong team, with Jay McCarthy, Davide Formolo, Cesare Benedetti, Patrick Konrad and Gregor Muhlberger here to support him, I expect to see them trying to blow things up on the final climbs. But not only support him, if the cards fall right, Formolo, McCarthy or Konrad are capable of big results also. 

Michael Matthews is Sunweb's best chance of a big result here, it all depends on whether he can stay with the leaders over the Roche. If he does, he should probably win it, as he's literally the only decent sprinter in the race. He missed the main move with VDP though in AGR and came home in the main group 54" down, beaten by Impey in the sprint for 15th. He did very well again in FW on Wednesday (for a sprinter), finishing in 8th place, despite being blocked a few times on the climb he said.

The climbers and puncheurs need to shed him on the Redoute or Roche and hope he doesn't get back on, but Matthews has shown in recent weeks he's harder to get rid of than the mother-in-law and he could well be the big danger to everyone here. He has been dangling at the back quite a lot in recent races though, he barely hung on on the Cherave on Wednesday, if the climbers teams really put the hammer down he could be in trouble. Sunweb also have Tom Dumoulin in the race, coming back after a training block preparing for the Giro..will he be competitive or will he be just getting some more hard training in? 

He hasn't raced in over a month, since he finished 11th in MSR, it's the same prep as he did this time last year. He may have an impressive-looking 15th on his palmares in this race last year, but despite being near the front for most of the race the lights went out late on for Tom and he came home 1'24" down, some 45" behind the main favourites group. I think he will give his all for Matthews on the Redoute and Roche and roll home with some good training banked. 

Dan Martin is next in the betting around 33/1, pushed out from 20/1 after his disastrous ride in FW on Wednesday. He pulled out late on in the race and the team said that he 'didn't have good legs all day'. That was obvious when he was being dropped with a long way to go. It was a similar situation to last year and he then ended up finishing 18th in LBL, 2'41" down. I can't have him this weekend after that ride Wednesday, I thought he'd go well and it was clear a long way from home he was struggling.  

Adam Yates was very unlucky on Wednesday, he was right at the front going up the Mur for the penultimate time, but crashed hard in the closing stages and was taken out of the race. Could he have put it up to Alaphilippe? Very possible, he's one of the few guys in the peloton with that sort of kick required. Three wins this year and top 8 finishes in the GC in every stage race he's entered this year shows his legs are in great shape. 

He missed last year's race but he was 13th in the Espoirs version in 2013 (won by Michael Valgren) and 8th in this race in 2017, he has shown he goes well around here too. But how can he win it? He'll not win a sprint against many, so he'll either have to go solo from the top of the Roche, or take a very select group with him that he can win a sprint against. That's unlikely on both counts I think, he'll need to get rid of the likes of Alap to start with.. 

Good team with him though, Michael Albasini has loads of experience here and has finished 2nd in 2016. But he's getting on now and has struggled to pull off a decent result this season. 

Romain Bardet popped up last year with a superb 3rd place, attacking with Woods out of the favourites group in the last kilometre. He was in great form around this time last year and his recent form isn't too bad either, with 13th in FW and 9th in AGR, coming home with the VDP express. He has amazing results in this race though, finishing 2nd and 12th in the Espoirs version, before a run of results in this race starting in 2013 that reads 13, 10, 6, 13, 6, 3 - never worse than 13th.

But that was on the old course - can he pull of the same sort of result now the final hill that suited him so well is gone? It's going to be a lot harder... but he's the kind of guy that might look to kick things off on the Redoute or definitely on the Roche, he might want to eliminate the fast guys and maybe even Alap and try to make it a scrap between the skinny mountain goats at the finish. A top 4 is possible, winning is a big ask I think.

Vincenzo Nibali has been cut to 20/1 generally for this after a fine week in the Tour of the Alps where he has shown that his preparations for the Giro are going very well. After a month's training following his 8th place in MSR Nibali has finished 7th, 4th and 2nd and attacked relentlessly in an effort to shake off Sivakov and TGH. He has finished 2nd here way back in 2012 but his recent results haven't been up to much - he has tried giving it a go out on the course before the final hill but they haven't come off.

This new finish might suit him well though, a tough climb followed by a fast descent, a little bit like his MSR win last year. He's in good form it seems, but he'll probably have to win solo too. He has a decent team here with him, with Matej Mohoric a decent outsider as someone who can attack late on and charge down that descent. He showed in FW he has good legs with that late attack, he could be a dark horse at a decent price (150/1) as they all concentrate on Nibali..

Dylan Teuns and Damiano Caruso can go well too for them, Teuns was right up with the pace in FW and finished 14th, this one is a lot more suitable for him, he was 2nd in the Espoirs version in 2014 and top 20 twice in this race. 

EF are starting to look pretty good this year with some good recent performances. Michael Woods buried himself to give Simon Clarke a shot at AGR, knowing that the favour will be returned in due course. 2nd last year after attacking away on the hill to Ans, he would hope to be close again this year, but I'm afraid I can't see it. His form isn't good enough for me and this new finish just doesn't suit him. 

Simon Clarke might actually be a better bet for them, he showed in AGR that the legs are good and he can get over these tough little climbs, and still had a kick on him that nearly won the race for him. And not only that, he was 9th in MSR and 8th in Strade Bianche, he's having a very good season by his standards - he's earned more 'ProCyclingStats points' this season than he has ever done, and it's still only April. His results here are poor, but he's always been working for the likes of Woods, Uran, Formolo or Yates back with Orica.At 50/1, why not.. 

Lotto have a few options again, with Tim Wellens probably licking his lips at the prospect of a wet and cold day in the saddle. He struggled a little with the heat in AGR, but the conditions here should be a lot more in his favour. But will he have the legs for it? He was able to match MVDP and Alaphilippe in Brabantse Pijl but DNFed Amstel. He was back at the front again in FW, finishing 17th, but his record here isn't great, best result is 16th last year. 

I am not sure this course suits him as much, but the weather might be a bit of a leveller for him and he might do ok. They also have several others who could shake things up a bit, Jelle Vanendert, Bjorg Lambrecht and Tomas Marczynski are all looking in great shape. Vanendert was on the attack in Amstel, then disappeared, still don't know what happened him, but popped up with another good result in FW Wednesday in 9th. 

He has finished 10th and 11th twice here before, will he be able to get away on the Roche and solo to victory? Unlikely. Same with Marczynski and Lambrecht, I think they will be prominent, they will be on the attack a lot, but I just can't see how any of them will win it, Lambrecht especially, he doesn't like the cold and wet. 

CCC will be hoping that Greg Van Avermaet can hang in there over all the hills, and he's another that will like the cold and wet conditions, remember how bad it was when he won the Olympics title? (edit: sorry, my bad, the weather wasn't bad in Rio, it was sunny and warm!) He has been at the forefront of all the Classics so far this year but hasn't got much reward from them, bar a 2nd in OHN and 3rd in E3. He wasn't supposed to do this race, but now he has decided he wants to - is it because he knows he's in great form, or are the team putting him under a lot of pressure having failed to deliver them a win in the cobbled Classics?

He has finished 11th and 7th here, and 15th in the Espoirs version, and he'll probably like this finish a lot more than the old one, he'll pack a better sprint than most. But with the quality of the climbers here, and they knowing they can't afford to bring him to the line he'll be under a lot of pressure on the Redoute and Roche to stay with the leaders. But if he does, 66/1 could look like a massive price.

Another of their riders who seems to be going pretty well at the moment is Alessandro de Marchi, and he could be another dark horse who might attack from afar and could go all the way with the right group. He was very aggressive in AGR and took a fine 7th place, he will like this course and might be given some freedom. At 90 or 100/1 he's worth a small interest.  

And there are loads of others who could feature at bigger prices. Philippe Gilbert is 50/1, but unless something happens to Alaphilippe then it looks like it will be all for him again on Sunday. I thought Bauke Mollema might go well on this course, but it turns out he's not doing it, hard to see anyone else from Trek winning it, but Toms Skujins will go well, but Fabio Felline has now DNF'ed Strade, AGR and FW and has no form at all to go on at the moment.

Diego Ulissi, Enrico Gasparotto, Ion Izagirre, Robert Gesink, Laurens de Plus and Tadej Pogacar are others who could get involved, they are going well and will like this course, but might prefer a hillier finish. Tao Gaoghan Hart has been superb in the Tour of the Alps, taking two stages wins and dragging Sivakov over the mountains to the overall victory. But how tired will he be after that tough week in the Alps? Or can he carry that fine form here and win a sprint finish against climbers like he has done in the TOTA?

Sky also have Woet Poels, a former winner of this race, but he hasn't really shown any form to suggest he'll be repeating that win, especially on the new course. Eddie Dunbar will be hoping for a better run than in FW when he was taken out of the lead group by a crash with less than 30kms to go, which was a shame as I'd like to have seen what he could have done up the Mur. They also have Salvatore Puccio and David de la Cruz here, but they're all likely to be working for Kwiat's chances. 

It's probably going to be another duel between Fuglsang and Alaphilippe though and it's likely we will see the two of them sprinting away from everyone again on the final climb of the day, and then we'll see Alap beat him in the sprint again. You just can't trust Fuglsang, but his 5/1 or so looks like an e/w bet to nothing, he's probably going to be in the first 3. But it could be another wild and exciting race and we could see battle commence a long way from home.

And that could bring a few others in to the reckoning at bigger prices. Si Clarke can go well again, as should Max Schachmann, but as we saw last year, anything can happen in this race - so why not plump for a confident/desperate Greg Van Avermaet at a big price, he might give us a good run for our money at 66/1. But Skybet are offering a PriceBoost on Alaphilippe to 11/4, and he's worth having a saver on, he's unstoppable at the moment. I expect a big ride from Kwiat also, he's sure to be top 6, top 3 or a win isn't out of the question either.

Recommendations: 

0.5pts e/w on Simon Clarke at 45/1 with Ladbrokes/Betway

0.5pts e/w on Michal Kwiatkwoski at 16/1 with Bet365

0.3pts win on Alessandro de Marchi at 80/1 with various

0.5pt e/w on Greg Van Avermaet at 66/1 with Betway

1pt win on Julian Alaphilippe at 11/4 with Skybet

Betway have come out with some interesting additional markets, the following caught my eye:

Alap to be top DQS rider, Valverde to be top Movistar, Fuglsang to be top Astana and Kwiat to be top Sky rider - 2pts at 2/1

Simon Clarke to finish in the top 10 - 1pt at 13/8

Matchbets

De Marchi to beat Zakarin and Kwiatkowski to beat Valverde - 2pts at 1.3/1

Gasparotto to beat Molard and Alaphilippe to beat Schachmann - 2pts at 1.15/1

Ulissi to beat Lambrecht - 2pts at evens

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