Details

Published on Tuesday, 10 May 2016 21:54

Giro d'Italia St 5

Praia a Mare to Benevento 

Wed 11th May, 233kms 

Things start to get a bit interesting now with a challenging stage that is the second longest of the Giro at 233kms (stage 18 is 11kms longer). The stage looks like one maybe for the breakaway with a 35km climb right from the start and an undulating course that ends with an uphill pull to the line for the last kilometre.

This is the 7th time the Giro has finished in Benevento, the first time was in 1929 when Girardenga won, the last time was in 2009 when Michele Scarponi won on stage 18, a stage that had riders all over the road by the finish. It should be a very exciting finish through the twisting streets of Benevento and the uphill charge to the line. 

Well stage 4 was interesting wasn't it! So much for the moron bookmakers who priced up Kittel as the 7/1 favourite, not only was he dropped on that final climb like I warned he would, he was dropped on the hills 50kms from home! The writing was on the wall a long way from home that it wasn't going to be his day. They may have got that wrong, but they got seriously lucky with the result, not many would have had Ulissi, alhtough there was small money for him to knock his price down to 22/1, Dumoulin was a 100/1 outsider for it and Kruijswijk wasn't even quoted by a single bookie!

We were unlucky with Brambilla, if you took the 100/1 e/w with Boylesports last night you'd have had the fifth place pay out, but unfortunately the shits at Paddy Power are paying 3 places only. It's bloody annoying that Dumoulin and Kruijswijk slipping off the front cost us a 40/1 placer. Matchbets went better though, 3 out of 4 came in with only the second leg of the double (Haussler to beat Mezgec) letting us down for a clean sweep. The end result was a zero day, neither a profit or a loss, so we press on.

It was interesting to see how the race blew to pieces though on the last few climbs, Astana looked strong, Landa struggled a little to stay on, Nico Roche paced him over the top of the last climb and kept him in the favourites group, and still had the strength to sprint to 10th on the stage and move up to 9th overall in GC (and inside the top 10 for our 9/1 bet!). Unfortunately Andrey Amador (like so many others) got caught on the wrong side of the first split behind the GC leaders and lost 50", slipping down the GC to 18th, but still only 50" off the lead.  

The Route

After leaving Praia a Mare they head inland in a north-westerly direction, climbing for the first 35kms, peaking out at the top of the climb at Fortino, a Cat 3 climb that gets steeper near the top. After the top they roll along on a plateau for 50kms to Polla before descending down in to the valley, and then the road starts to roll for the next 90kms or so over four climbs, none of which are categorised.

With just over 180kms gone they go down a steep descent for 10kms and for the next 35kms after that the road descends a bit more gently until 7.6kms to go where it enters a final circuit which takes them up the hill over the finishing line. The final circuit is quite twisty and tricky through the small streets of Benevento, and with just over 1km to go the road arcs left then turns sharply left for the last 1100m.

The last kilometre is uphill at an average of 3.4% and on what is described as 'Pavé' on the roadbook, but these are not the Pavé of northern France and Belgium, but flat paving stones that are almost no obstacle at all, unless the road is very wet where they can become a bit slippy (right).

The road averages 3.4%, but it really isn't too steep coming towards the finish, it will suit the uphill sprinters like Nizzolo, that is if a break hasn't made it all the way to contest the finish. The finish is straight and reasonably wide so there shouldn't be any problems from once they get around that last bend with 1100m to go. 

Contenders and Favourites

So the regular sprinters have had fun in stages 2 and 3, particularly Marcel Kittel, and the puncheurs and climbers got to stretch their legs today with the finish to Praia a Mare. Tomorrow we could see the first real serious attempts at a breakaway making it, but it's also more likely that we will get another sprint finish in Benevento. There are some climbs out on the route, and between 100km and 50km to go it gets quite lumpy, but you'd think most would be able to hang in there unless the likes of Trek and LottoNL really push hard on that uncategorised climb out of Svinc di Montello with 67kms to go.

It only averages around 3%, but it is 7kms long, and if they push really hard, they might just cause splits and dislodge some of the sprinters like on those climbs today, but those climbs today were far harder, the second one for example averaged close on 9% for more than 2kms. I think the sprinters will be more confortable on this one and they do have 53kms still to go to the line to get organised and set up the sprint.   

If it does come down to a full bunch crit through the streets of Benevento, then we have the dilemma of trying to figure out who will win the uphill sprint. Marcel Kittel has been unbeatable in the sprints, and has been winning by so far he should almost be given a time gap on the rest. And it doesn't even look like he has got in to top gear yet, that's the scariest thing about it for the others. As Viviani put it the other day, "He's the best sprinter I have raced against in my 7 years as a pro."  And he has raced against some of the best sprinters of all time in Cavendish and Greipel.

He can sprint uphill - the sprint finish in Dublin a few years ago in the Giro was a prime example of that, he passed us in about 6th place with 125m to go and won it incredibly on the line. That uphill pull to the finish was around 3%. And with strong leadout men like Jungels, Trentin and Sabatini (who has been his superb last man) then he might just get dragged in to position to launch his sprint again with 150m to go. His sheer power over that distance should see him win again. Forget about today, he never had a chance and the pre-race interview with Brambilla was telling, he said that he was ready to cover attacks over the top if Kittel faltered and that's exactly what he did. Kittel tried, but was never going to get to the finish with that lead group, so conserved energy and rolled in 8 mins down. 

Behind there will be a queue of guys again - Elia Viviani came closest on Sunday and looks like he was the fastest of the rest, just was no match for Kittel. He too can sprint uphill, we saw the great battle between him and Greipel up to Piccadilly in the Tour of Britain final stage last year, that hill rises at around 3% as well. He also managed 3rd place in that tough uphill sprint in Tirreno-Adriatico behind Gaviria and Ewan earlier in the year. He will love this first sprint opportunity on the streets of Italy and will be surfing the wheels of Kittel and Etixx as they enter the last kilometre. Some upstarts like Ruffoni might come and try to knock him off the wheel, but that's generally not a good idea with Viviani. He has a top chance at a top 3 placing again I think. 

André Greipel seems to be getting in to it too, and as I warned for the first sprint, he can sometimes take a few stages to get going. He just needs a slightly better leadout that can maybe get him the jump on Kittel, but although he came close, in 4th, he really was nowhere near Kittel, it will take a big effort for him to win here. He was the one that ran Viviani closest on that uphill sprint in the TOB in London, but was struggling so beat him so took to trying to push him in to the barriers! Greipel also fared better than Viviani and Kittel today, finishing only 4' down. 

When it comes to uphill sprints, Giacomo Nizzolo has to be considered of course, it's not really been his territory in stages 2 and 3, but he still notched a 10th and a 3rd, and the hills of stage 4 proved too hard. He still finished the first of the sprinters (besides Colbrelli in the front group), just beating Modolo in their matchbet. A hillier stage like this is much more up his street and an uphill 3% pull to the line will suit him too. In stage 3 he was in the ideal position on Kittel's wheel with 200m to go, then Porsev came up on his right hand side and he got squeezed up between him and Viviani.. it took him a little while to get going again but still got out and finished really fast to nab Greipel for 3rd. If he can finish that fast he has a big chance here, he seems to have the beating of Greipel. 

Arnaud Démare and his FDJ team looked good on stage 2 but not so hot on stage 3 as a number of them came down in the big crash with 20kms or so to go. Olivier Le Gac dismounted without falling but Arnaud Courteille, Ignas Konovalovas, Marc Sarreau, Alexandre Geniez and Murilo Fischer all hit the road, Geniez crashing again today and having to abandon. Fischer suffered pain in his wrist, hand and buttocks. Démare still managed to get up and land 8th place though, despite not having a leadout. He was fancied to get over the hills today and contest the finish, but like so many of the other sprinters he was dropped and rolled in 72nd, nearly 2 mins behind Nizzolo.

Sonny Cobrelli came in for a lot of support on stage 4, being backed in from an opening show of 22/1 with Bet365 to go off their second favourite at a frankly ridiculous 15/2, looks like the sheep followed some in. He was available at 14/1 elsewhere but it looks like he might actually have been unlucky in the end as he did make the front group that came to the finish, but Dumoulin, Kruijswijk and Ulissi had taken then placings, but not only that he seemed to have a problem with his pedal crossing the line at the back of the bunch.

Sacha Modolo disappointed on stage 3 when we were on, after doing well on stage 2 to finish in 3rd. He said that Ferrari dropped him in perfectly on to Kittel's wheel with 500m to go, you could see him arrive there in a great position, then in the fight for his wheel he suddenly got boxed in and went backwards, and said he realised his sprint was over. He looked one of the fastest on stage 2 and I think they will be doubly determined to get that wheel of Kittel again and try to make amends. 

An uphill sprint like this will suit little Caleb Ewan also, his lightweight frame and aerodynamic sprinting style will be a great help, although wind won't be a problem on the day by the looks of things. He claims to be in great shape and has had the legs but has just been unlucky, I'm not so sure. I've been against him from the start and will continue to do so until I see something to persuade me otherwise. 

Sbaragli, Hofland, Arndt and Ulissi could all go well again, we could get late attacks from the likes of Wellens or Brambilla, but I think it will come down to a sprint up the hill. The bookies don't seem too sure about Kittel's chances and after he being 8/15 for the last sprint, he's 4/1 for tomorrow! I think that's a great price and has to be taken. I think Giacomo Nizzolo has looked one of the fastest and seeme to have good legs based on how close he was to hanging in there today, and the 14/1 with Boyles paying 4 places is worth a bet. I'm tempted by Viviani, Greipel and Démare also but think I'll leave it at that for tomorrow, FDJ are down two men and it worries me re. Démare's chances. 

If you're in to arbitrage by the way, you can back Kittel at 4/1 on Ladbrokes and lay him at 3/1 on Betfair.. 

Recommendations:

10pts win on Marcel Kittel at 4/1 with Ladbrokes, lay 8pts at 3/1 on Betfair for a 2pt bet to win 16pts

(the 4/1 has been cut by Ladbrokes now to 3/1, take 3pts at 7/2 with Boyles instead)

0.75pts each-way on Giacomo Nizzolo at 14/1 with Boyles paying 4 places 

Matchbets

Sbaragli to beat Arndt (4/9) and Kittel to beat Ewan (1/3) - 3pts on the double at 9/10 with 365

Viviani to beat Démare - 2pts at 4/6 with PP