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Published on Wednesday, 18 May 2016 21:50

Giro d'Italia St 12

Noale to Bibione

Thursday 19th May, 168kms

This preview is almost like a rest day for me with regards to describing the route and profile - its flat and boring! It's also pretty short too at only 168kms, so for the GC men it's sure to feel like a rest day too. The only complication comes with a tricky closing circuit in Bibione with its tight bends and roundabouts.

Well what a dramatic finish that turned out to be today! What a spectacular ride once again by Bob Jungels and Andrey Amador, who rode away from what was left of the peloton as it blew to pieces over the hilly closing kilometres. Ulissi took a great stage win, but Amador and Jungels were winners again, beating the next best home by 13" and also adding time bonuses to their results. The end result was that Jungels now leads Valverde by 1'07, Amador leads his team-mate by 43". Amador has shortened again, and is now as short as 12/1, but is still 16/1 with Corals.

I'm trying to find a weak spot in him that could see him lose the podium spot, and I am struggling. He will do very well in the uphill TT I think and he should do well in the climbing next week too. My only worry is team orders and whether all the attacking he has been doing for the last few days will leave him shattered by the end of the second week. So far though, he is looking like he is with a fantastic chance of not only landing a podium spot, but also possibly winning it when Jungels fades out of it next week. That is, if he fades out of it, because so far he has been sensational too and is teaching his older and more experienced rivals a lesson in race reading and aggressive riding, even when in pink. 

I was gutted at the end of the stage though as we were so close to landing a 22/1 winner and a 22/1 3rd place, Nizzolo not only hung in there, when no one gave him a chance, but he won the sprint for 4th. Trentin did exactly as I predicted too, even attacking in the last few kms, but he was handcuffed a little with Jungels up the road. I read those two perfectly, not so with Greipel who was seen taking monster pulls at the front in the lead-in to the climb in an effort to set up Wellens. He said after that he wanted to save energy for tomorrow as that finish suits him far more. Overall though another 3.2pts profit as the two matchbet selections did the business, with Nizzolo and Trentin both finishing in the top 10. 

There was good news too on some of the other bets, with Nizzolo now odds on to take the points jersey and Modolo 3rd favourite after Nizzolo picked up points today and unlucky Démare and Greipel drawing a blank. A bad day at the office too for Astana sees Movistar also go odds on for the Team Classification after they went clear of Etixx (who will fade away soon) and Astana. I'm still not convinced about Nibali by the way, there's something about him that certainly has me on the lay side of the market than the back side at the price he is now. 

The Route

Not a lot to say about it, it's flat, as flat as you can get nearly, reaching the heady heights of just 38m about half way along. They start in Noale and head east to the coast to the city of Bibione, and the only interesting thing about the stage is the two-lap finishing circuit with its many twists and turns.

Initially, the route follows the Riviera del Brenta, then it enters the province of Treviso along trunk roads. They will need to be alert to roundabouts, kerbs, speed bumps and traffic dividers while crossing urban areas, especially in Mestre, Treviso and Portogruaro.

The route finally reaches Bibione, where they tackle an 8km circuit which features 14 bends and long straight stretches, on mostly wide and well-surfaced roads. Just as they hit the flamme rouge the road kinks to the right a little and with 300m to go they take a 90 degree right-hander on to the finishing straight. Bibione has been a five-time finish of a stage in the Giro d'Italia history, the last one in 2000, a 42km ITT won by Victor Hugo Pena.

Contenders and Favourites

I've made it clear already my thoughts on how well Greipel is going and even though I was disappointed as I had money on him that he pulled at the front today and didn't even try to stay with the front group, he said afterwards that he was only interested in saving energy today ahead of tomorrow's stage. He should love this finish as his Lotto boys will be able to boss the last 3kms and potentially take him to that final bend in pole position with 300m to go. He won't be afraid to strike out 200m from the line and could have the power to hold them all off. He opened at 11/8 with PP I believe, but that lasted seconds and they quickly went evens and 10/11, but he is now available at 11/10 with Bet365.

Giacomo Nizzolo of course came very close in stage 7, sprinting very well on a flat finish and could well be one of his biggest dangers again. He was excellent today again, winning the sprint behind Jungels, and I think he has a big chance again here in this sprint. They may be missing Cancellara but he didn't need any help today, fighting his own corner and getting up for 4th. He opened at 9/1 with PP and I took a point each-way of that, he's now just 5/1 and that is a little tight, but just about worth an e/w bet, I think he'll be very unlucky not to give you a return.

Caleb Ewan continues to insist that they are getting closer to pulling it off, on stage 7 he was looking the winner with 150m to go but was passed by a number of guys in the last 100m. It almost looked like he had got his gearing all wrong as he seemed to be spinning in far too small a gear. On a flat out sprint like this he is sure to give it all his got, particularly as it could be his last stage in the race. OGE will not commit too many resources to his leadout, but if he can just get Damian Howson in front of him with 500m to go, he will have a chance. On today's stage it was reported that he was in the front group with Nizzolo as they approached the last hill, but it doesn't look he actually was, he finished nearly 18 mins down!

Arnaud Démare would probably have preferred some hills to take the sting out of some of his rivals, but should still be able get involved in this finish. 2nd fastest to Kittel on stage 2, FDJ looked to have a killer leadout, but he hasn't followed through from that with a win, finishing 2nd again to Greipel on St 5, but also only finishing 8th on St 3 and 13th on St 7. I'm not sure I'd trust him again, although he does wear the red sprinter's jersey and will be keen to hang on to it for as long as possible. He and practically the whole team were caught up in the crash today though and it's hard to know if some of them took a knock or picked up an injury.

Sacha Modolo should be involved too, he needs to start scoring points towards the jersey if he wants to get involved in that fight. A close 3rd on stages 2 and 7, he wasn't able to match the final punches of Kittel or Greipel, will he get closer today? I'm not so sure - he did make it with the lead group today though but he once again lost out to Nizzolo.

Moreno Hofland's LottoNL team have looked impressive at times, sweeping to the front en-masse, but then disintegrating when he needed them most. A flatter stage like this doesn't suit him as well either, but it might be a day we see them get it right, but with Kruijswijk so high in the GC, he too like Ewan might be short a few carers. 

And after that you have the lottery tickets again in Sbaragli, Busato, Grosu, Porsev, Arndt and Ruffoni who could come close, but I think this is Greipel's stage again and if you can get odds against (5/4 on Betfair for example) then I'd back him. I was tempted to have a large stake on Greipel, but there is a slight worry that the technical closing circuit could cause problems. Nizzolo can chase him home and I wouldn't be surprised if Caleb Ewan finally got it right and took a podium spot too. Same two picks again, they should be right up there again I think. 

Recommendations:

4pts on André Greipel at 5/4 on Betfair

1pt each-way on Nizzolo at 5/1 with Ladbrokes

Matchbets

Porsev to beat Arndt and Greipel to beat Ewan - 3pts at 11/10