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Published on Tuesday, 03 May 2016 18:23

Giro D'Italia St 1

Apeldoorn to Apeldoorn

Friday 6th May, 9.8kms ITT

The Giro starts with a short time trial of just 9.8kms around the streets of Apeldoorn, a small town of 159,000 inhabitants smack bang in the middle of Holland. It's too long to be classed as a prologue, but at nearly 10kms there will be some gaps between some of the main protagonists right from the off. 

The opening stage in 2015 was a team time trial, won by OGE from Tinkoff and Astana, giving the Maglia Rosa to Simon Gerrans, which was in turn passed on to Matthews the next day. The last time there was an individual time trial on the opening day of the race was in 2012, when Taylor Phinney won an 8.7km prologue in Herning in Denmark. Since then we've had two TTTs and a sprint stage in 2013 won by Mark Cavendish as the opening stages. 

It's going to be a great event in the Netherlands, the crowds should be immense and there should be a great atmosphere at the start. Home favourites Tom Dumoulin, Jos Van Emden, Steven Kruijswijk and Martin Tjallingi will be going all out to make it a day to remember for the home fans and Dumoulin will be looking to take the pink jersey ahead of the next two stages in the Dutch countryside. 

The Route

Not a lot to say about the route really, it's dead flat on wide roads all within the centre of the city. After 2kms they turn sharp right and go along the canal Noord, then with 6kms to go turn left and go over the bridge, then sharp left again to head back down the other side of the canal. and past the intermediate split with just under 5kms to go. the last 5kms are mostly on wide roads with just a few tight bends to negotiate, but there are roundabouts, speed bumps and street furniture to contend with along the way too. 

There's one last 90 degree right-hander with 600m to go, but the last 600m are dead straight and flat. The first rider is due off at 1.45pm local time and the last rider is expected to finish at 5.15pm. The weather is expected to be perfect for the start, with no rain and sunny skies, with temperatures in the low 20s. There will be a slight wind from the south-east which will stay pretty constant throughout the afternoon, around 12-14mph. This should give them a tail-wind for most of the day but a head-wind for the last 600m.

Analysis and Picks

One good thing about time trials is that the list of potential winners is short and there are less contenders to have to consider! There are rarely 100/1 and bigger shocks and most of the time the winners come from the top 10 or even five in the betting. This looks like being a similar sort of situation here with the top two in the betting making up 71% of the book with PP.

Tom Dumoulin marginally shaded favouritism at 7/4 over Cancellara who was 15/8 early on and there really isn't anything in it according to PP's prices that came out nearly two weeks before the race. Since then Cancellara has shortened a little to 13/8 to now sit as favourite in the betting.

Tom Dumoulin has been in action of course last week in the Tour of Romandie, but finished twice in both of the time trials - 2nd in the opening prologue to Ion Izagirre, beaten by 6", 2nd in the longer 15km TT on Friday over the hill, beaten by Thibaut Pinot by 2". On the face of it, being beaten by the likes of Ion Izagirrre and Thibaut Pinot in the space of a week are a little worrying, they were not exactly course that were suited to him very well though. The first TT was too short for him to really get his motor running and the second one was up a hill and down a hill, but I'm glad I didn't back him at the short prices he was. 

This TT is completely different though, it's flat and fast and at just under 10kms, just long enough for him to get the power down and really motor it around the course. It's also starting in the Netherlands, so if he can't get motivated and lifted on that day, he never will! The crowd will be screaming him home and is probably good for a few seconds advantage!

Fabian Cancellara hasn't raced since the disaster of his crash in Paris-Roubaix a month ago, a race he was favourite to win. He had a good Classics season, but although he was the brilliant winner of Strade Bianche he will probably consider this campaign a disappointment. 4th in E3, 4th in Gent-Wevelgem, 2nd in Flanders, a race he really wanted to win and he crashed out of contention in PR.

He has entered two ITTs this year, the first in the Volta ao Algarve, beating Tony Martin by 5" and Ion Izagirre by 37" for comparison purposes against Dumoulin. The second was in the final stage of Tirreno-Adriatico over 10kms, where he destroyed the field, beating Johan le Bon by 13", Martin by 15" and Geniez by 18". He may be getting old, he may be retiring, but he looks to be as strong as he ever has been and looks to me to have the edge over Dumoulin, I think even more so if the race wasn't in Holland!

After that, the next two riders jump up to 12/1 - Bob Jungels and Stefan Kung, two rising stars. Bob Jungels has also been in action in Romandie and has been going really well - hauling the EQS team around to set up the sprint for Kittel, then led the second time trial for quite a while until Pinot and Dumoulin came and beat him. He didn't go so great in the opening prologue, finishing down in 45th place, but like Dumoulin he wouldn't have had time to get the diesel engine running. The Luxembourg TT champion is sure to have lots of supporters come over to cheer him on and he could put in a big ride on the day too.

Stefan Kung burst on to the scene with victories in both the U23 road and ITT championships in 2014, and has since added to his medal haul by being part of the victorious BMC team in the Worlds' TTT last year. He has hardly raced at all this year so far, he has only raced 1600kms this year, almost exactly half of what Bob Jungels has done. He has taken part in one TT this year and that was in De Panne where he didn't exactly blow the doors off, he finished in 9th place, some 29" off the winner. He also was well off the pace in races like RVV, PR and FW and his slow build up and mediocre performances put me off him.   

Next we have two riders at 33/1, Matthias Brandle and Jos Van Emden and both of them have outside chances here of causing an upset - in fact I'd give them more of a chance than Kung at nearly 3 times the price. Matthias Brandle of IAM Cycling has finished 3rd, 8th and 11th in ITTs this year, and last year he won the prologue over 6.8kms in the Belgium Tour ahead of Rohan Dennis and finished 7th in the prologue of the TDF in Utrecht last year also. If he's on a really good day he could notch a podium spot. 

Jos Van Emden led that prologue in Utrecht last year for a long time before the big guns came out and pushed him down to 5th by the end. It was a great ride from him though, inspired by riding in front of the home fans. He finished 2nd in the TT in Qatar at the start of the season, but since then he has not really impressed, finishing down in 21st in the prologue in Paris-Nice over 6.1kms. He also won the TT in the Eneco Tour last year over 14kms, with Malori in 3rd and Brandle in 5th.

Van Emden has done a lot of work with the Van Karmen Institute of Fluid Dynamics in their wind tunnel recently though in search of ways to save seconds (right) and he has said that he is aiming for a podium spot in the TT. He seems to reserve his best performances for TTs in Holland, so he's one to watch alright. He is 33/1 with PP but they are offering win only at the moment, Skybet are offering each-way betting but he is only 22/1. If you can get 25/1 or bigger with each-way betting, he might be worth a shot. 

Katusha have a lively outsider too in Anton Vorobyev, he is a former Russian ITT champion and has been pulling off some good rides lately, including winning the TT over 6.8kms at the Circuit Cycliste Sarthe a month ago, beating Coppel and Brandle by 1". He also won solo by 51" in the stage 3 of that race to seal the GC overall too so clearly has good legs at the moment. He doesn't seem to go well on hilly TTs, but in the dead-flat ITT of the 3 days of West Vlaanderen he was just 2" off the podium in 4th place too. At 33/1 with Skybet he might be a good outsider to have a shot at. 

After that it's hard to see anyone else winning this, beating the sort of time trialling talent above. Daniel Oss is twice world champion in the TTT, and is a major engine. He can power around a course like this to a top 10 placing but it's a big ask to get on the podium. With FDJ riders suddenly crushing it in TTs, Alexandre Geniez could come in to the reckoning too after finishing 12th in the first TT in Romandie and 3rd in the 7km TT in the Criterium International a month ago. He might interest some at 66/1. 

Manuel Quinziato looks big at 200/1, he's another World TTT champion, Michael Hepburn, Moreno Moser, Manuele Boaro and Pavel Brutt could all go well too, but it's in match bets that we might find an angle of interest, when they are up I'll add some picks if I see any that interest me.

For me though, I think it will be incredibly close, but I am siding slightly with Fabian Cancellara for this, his performance in the TT in Tirreno was sensational and if he repeats that here Dumoulin will have to be on a really, really good day to beat him. 

EDIT: 11:30, 05/05 - Fabian Cancellara tweeted this this morning: "Bad luck hit me yesterday after training,stomach flu/Fever put me in bed.full rest today and stay positiv for tomorrow" - that's not good news if you are on Cancellara, a stomach bug will leave you weak for a day or two and could seriously jeopardise his chances. It may be mind games, but he was pretty specific and is saying he's resting today.

As a precaution I recommend backing a hedge on Dumoulin if you've already backed Cancellara and/or Van Emden. He was 2/1 this morning but has dropped to as low as evens, but there is 5/4 out there and you should get 6/4 on Betfair. I can't see Dumoulin being beaten if Fabs really is ill and possibly going to struggle. Van Emden had halved in price since I tipped him on Tuesday, he looks a good bet for the podium now if Fabs is ill. Have 2pts on Dumoulin as a hedge to cover yourself, better to start flat than lose because Fabs has fallen ill. 

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Recommendations:

2pts win on Fabian Cancellara at 13/8 with Skybet who are the only bookie at the moment offering a full market with each-way betting. 

It doesn't look like we're going to get better than 25/1 on Van Emden, and if anything I think he's only going to shorten by Friday night, so take 0.5pts each-way on him at 22/1 with Skybet. 

Hedge bet - 2pts on Dumoulin at 5/4 or better with Betfair.  

Matchbets

Vorobyev to beat Kung - 2pts at 5/6

Bobridge to beat Ovechkin - 2pts at 8/11 

Amador to beat Kangert (8/15), Kittel to beat Nizzolo (4/11) and Ludvigsson to beat Gretsche (4/9) - 2pts on the treble at 2/1.

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