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Published on Thursday, 15 May 2014 22:54

Giro d'Italia Stage7

Frosinone to Foligno 

Friday 16th May, 211kms 

This is a tough lumpy little stage that is harder than it appears on paper. It starts with a climb straight out of the start gate and rolls up and down all day on the route north west between Frosinone and Foligno. There is a little lump to get over 40kms from the finish, but it is likely to end with all the GC men together. 

What a dramatic stage it turned out to be. 247km of nothing to talk about and suddenly the race exploded with a series of crashes with just 10km to go just as the peloton was gearing up to hit the bottom of the climb to Montecassino. A massive pile out has taken Caruso and more significantly, 2nd favourite Rodriguez out of the race for Katusha amongst others. Lots of riders lost time and lost their chances of a top 3 and even top 10 finish, with the likes of Roche, Arredondo and Landa all losing huge amounts of time. 

Up front though a small group of mostly OGE and BMC riders got through the chaos and ploughed on towards the finish up the climb. A scan of the small group of 6 and I was in dreamland - Matthews, Evans and Rabottini, three of my picks were in there and going to fight out the finish. It was a fantastic result for me with Matthews winning at 11/1 and 8/1 and Evans taking a top 3 place at 7/4. But how much better could it have been if Rabottini had managed to get on the podium or win it.. thousands of pounds better, that's how much!

The GC has seen a big shift again as Rodriguez drops out and Cadel gains another 49" on Quintana who now sits 1'47" behind him on the GC. Cadel has been slashed to as short as 7/4 second favourite and it looks now like it could be between the two of them, although Uran and Majka are just around a minute back on Evans. Quintana is not 100% yet but is riding in to form he says and thinks he will be ready for Saturday's first big test. He has reached a backable price now at evens with most bookies but the 5/4 on Betfair was just too tempting and I have had my first bet of 4pts on him. Depending on how tomorrow's stage goes I will look to get some more on tomorrow night I think.

The Route

Right from the start the stage begins with a bang - the 3rd Category climb of the Valico di Arcinazzo will wake up the riders and anyone starting to feel a bit of fatigue could find themselves in trouble just 17kms in to the stage. The climb is 16.9kms long at an average gradient of 3.6%, hitting a maximum of 10% in parts. 

Crossing the Apennines up to Riete along twisty, narrow roads the road has flattened out a bit at this stage, but the break of the day will probably have 6 or 8 minutes at this point. As they leave Rieti the road gets a bit lumpier again, gong over three smallish climbs in a row inside 30kms before they hit the last test of the day, the climb of Valica Della Somma. A 4th Cat climb that averages 4.9% over 6.9kms, with a max of 8%. They crest the top with less than 40kms to go and from there it is a 10km descent down to the valley and a flat 30km run in to the finish in Foligno.

The last few kilometres are not complicated at all really, with just two left hand bends in a sort of U shape 1300m from the finish and an easy right-hand bend 500m from the line the only real obstacles. The finish line is located on a 160m long straight that is 7m wide.  Start time is given for 11.50 CET and the finish is expected around 5-5.30pm CET. 

Contenders and Favourites

The big question I guess with trying to pick a winner of this stage is whether we think the peloton will come to the finish together or whether some of the sprinters will be dropped on the run in over the four hills. If they can get to the finish with the main pack then it's a last chance for a while for some of them to win a stage and grab some points towards the red jersey. The other big question is just how battered and bruised each of our picks might be after the carnage of yesterday, there are sure to be some very sore bodies and some starting to suffer from fevers and colds after 6 stages in the cold and rain so far. 

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say straight away that I don't think the 7/2 favourite Nacer Bouhanni will win this stage. I think that he will struggle on that last climb and the likes of Trek Factory Racing, Lampre, Sky and OGE will look to push it really hard over that last climb and drop the pure sprinters. I think though that Elia Viviani might be ok tomorrow and if he gets to the finish without Bouhanni I think he could finally take his first stage win and maximum points towards the Red Sprints jersey. He was one of the few Cannondale riders not to go down in the crash today. He could well hang in there on the climb and will have the likes of Gatto and Ratto to look after him. I think at the 6/1 with Betfair he was definitely worth a win bet, he is best priced 4/1 with Paddy Power.

TFR will push it for Giacomo Nizzolo, both up the hill and to the finish so as not to let any dropped sprinters back on, because they have a strong candidate in Nizzolo. He showed on Stage 4 that he has some superb speed at the moment, coming from way back and almost catching Bouhanni on the line. If he comes with that sort of kick tomorrow I'd expect him to make a podium place. He is 9/1 with Bet365 and that is worth a small each-way. He is 4/7 to beat Ferrari in a match bet and that looks a pretty solid bet too.

Giant-Shimano could be light-handed when they come to the finish if the pace has caused a reduction in the peloton, they wouldn't be the best climbing squad in the race. Luca Mezgec is their designated sprinter in place of Marcel Kittel, and he should have no problem with the climbs. Expect him to be 4th-9th but outside the top 3 though I think.

Sky have Swift and EBH potentially for this stage and although they both should be able to get to the finish with the leading group, I think the finish is too flat for them and 4th to 9th is where I can see Swift finishing too. The Italians Colbrelli, Finetto and Ferrari could be involved but I don't think they will trouble the podium. Davide Appolonio came close on stage 3 in Dublin and he has been riding well on tough stages so he could well be involved at the finish again tomorrow. He looks big at 35/1 with 888Sport.

Ruffoni could also be top 10 and also looks big at 40/1, he beat Bouhanni and Viviani to the last intermediate sprint point yesterday. Finally, Franchesco Chicci looks overpriced at 66/1 with Bet365, he is only 25s with Paddy Power. He has finished in 10th, 11th and 12th place so far so is fairly consistent in the sprints, maybe he can step up to a podium tomorrow if it falls right for him, he took an excellent 2nd behind Cavendish just recently in a stage in Turkey.

Recommendation:

1.5pts win on Elia Viviani at 6/1 with Betfair

1pt each-way on Giacomo Nizzolo at 9/1 with Bet365

0.2pts each-way on Francesco Chicci at 66/1 with Bet365

2pts on Nizzolo to beat Ferrari at 4/7, 1pt on Matthews to beat EBH at 1/2, 3 pts on the double which pays 1.35/1, all with Bet365.

Back Nairo Quintana for the Overall at 5/4 on Betfair 

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