Details: Published on Thursday, 08 May 2014 01:23

Giro D'Italia Stage1

Friday 9th May, 21.7kms

Here we go then! The Giro turns green as it kicks off proceedings in Belfast with the drama and speed of a Team Time Trial. This is where we will find out who will wear the Maglia Rosa on the first road stage to Dublin, and most likely on the first stage proper in Italy on Tuesday.

BMC-TTT-Trentino-road

The Route

The route starts with a few technical sections in the first few kilometres but then it stretches out on to a long almost dead straight run slightly uphill to the castle at Stormont. A little loop around the grounds to take in the first checkpoint after 7.9ms and they head back down the straight road back towards Belfast city centre again. This time though they take a left when they hit the check point at Oxford St with 15km gone. The final 6.7ms are pretty straightforward, with just a few sharp right hand turns and they arrive at the finish in Donegall North Square.

It is a course which will test the teams as the straight run up and back to Stormont can be ridden at very high pace by the stronger teams. The final section in Belfast will still require teams to concentrate and stay alert with some tight bends and urban street furniture.

The Favourites

Orica-Greenedge are the hot favourites for the race at a very short 1/2. As is usual with Team Time Trials it is very hard to find value in the betting. Not only in the favourites price on the win market, but also the top 3 betting with prohibitively short odds on offer.

Orica-GE are the obvious favourites though with the squad they have here. They have some superb individual time trialists, but collectively they are a formidable group. Michael Hepburn, Luke Durbridge, Svein Tuft, Brett Lancaster, Michael Matthews, Cameron Meyer, Peter Weening and Mitchell Docker - they should win this easily but I am not playing at 1/2.

They were beaten by a hugely impressive OPQS in the TTT in Tirreno-Adriatico recently, with a similar line-up, so they are beatable - but then, that squad was missing Brett Lancaster, Weening and Matthews and I think they are a better team with them in, but it shows they are beatable.

The thing is though, there is no squad here as good as the OPQS squad that beat them that day. Second favourites are BMC at 5/1 and I expect a big ride from them too. Cadel will be keen to get the race off to a positive start and steal a few seconds from his rivals and he has a strong team here with him to do that.

Most of this squad were in the team that won the TTT at Trentino just a few weeks back, with Bookwalter, Eijssen, Morabito, Oss and Evans all here. It was a very impressive performance to beat Sky by 9" and Movistar by 12" over a shorter course of just 13km, so if they can pull out 20" or so on Quintana and maybe 30" or more on Rodriguez I think Evans will be very happy.

Movistar are the 3rd favourites at 8/1 and they too have some pretty decent TT'ers in their ranks. Quintana isn't bad against the clock at all and he has some real powerhouses in Malori, Castroviejo, Amador, Ventoso and Izagirre. They do seem a little level below the top two though but they are the most likely team to trouble the third step on the podium.

Belkin though are a team that could pull off a surprise at 16/1. Led by the strong time triallist Wilko Kelderman, they also have Kruijswijk, Jetse Bol, Tjallingii and Keizer. I think they could put in a big time but whether it will be good enough to trouble the top three, I'm not so sure. 6/4 to finish in the top 3 is a little tight too I think, would have wanted 5/2 or so.

Other than that, I can't really see any of the others making an impact. Tinkoff-Saxo will look to do a good TT as will Garmin-Sharp with the home favourites in their ranks, but I don't think either of them have the power or the strength in depth to keep the pace up all the way to the finish. Sky are in disarray and Katusha and Astana never seem to do really good time trials.

Omega Pharma Quick step may have won that TTT in Tirreno recently but are a big looking 25/1 to win this though. The big difference though is that they don't have Martin, Kwiatkowski, Cavendish or Renshaw here, but they do have Pettachi, Uran and Poels. Add in De Gendt, Serry, Pauwels and Vermote and you still have a pretty strong unit. I don't think they will be challenging for a stage win but I would expect them to better a team Sky that's in disarray at the moment at evens.

So it's a really hard stage to make any betting angles from. OGE will probably win it, but too short at 1/2. BMC will probably come 2nd, but are too short at 4/11 and Movistar are too short at 8/15 for a top 3 also. The only angle I can see would be to take a punt on BMC pulling off another storming ride and beating OGE at the 5/1 with Paddy Power.

Recommendation 1pt win on BMC at 5/1 with Paddy Power.

1pt win OPQS to beat Team Sky at evens with Bet365.

Starting order for stage 1 TTT (GMT):
17:50 Colombia
17:55 Orica-GreenEdge
18:00 Tinkoff-Saxo
18:05 FDJ.fr
18:10 Team Katusha
18:15 Movistar Team
18:20 Lotto Belisol
18:25 Trek Factory Racing
18:30 Belkin Pro Cycling Team
18:35 Team Europcar
18:40 Lampre-Merida
18:45 Team Sky
18:50 Cannondale
18:55 Team Giant-Shimano
19:00 AG2R La Mondiale
19:05 Androni Giocattoli-Venezuela
19:10 Garmin-Sharp
19:15 Bardiani-CSF
19:20 BMC Racing Team
19:25 Omega Pharma-Quick Step
19:30 Astana Pro Team
19:35 Neri Sottoli