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Published on Friday, 29 May 2015 21:18

Giro d'Italia St 20

Saint Vincent to Sestriere

Saturday 30th May, 199kms 

So just one more day of torture. One more day of climbing. One more day for a stage win if you're not a top sprinter. It's another brutal day in the saddle and another day where the hardest climb of the day is the penultimate climb rather than the final climb. It's also similar to the previous stage in that there are 150kms of flat nothingness and then an explosion of climbing in the last 50kms. 

This is going to be a spectacular stage to watch. Well the last 50kms will be anyway.. The final climb may only be a Cat 3, but it's what lies before that which will be the scene of some superb drama. The Colle Delle Finestre is a nasty climb for a number of reasons. Firstly, it's 18.5kms long. Secondly, it averages 9.2% over those 18.5kms, hitting 10-14% in parts. Thirdly, it has a gravel surface instead of asphalt for almost half the entire climb - 7.9kms in total, at an average of 9.2%. 

The Finestre is also the Cima Coppi of the 2015 Giro, the title given to the highest climb of the race - 2,178m high at the top of the gravelled section. The winner of the stage featuring the Cima Coppi will be awarded the 'Trofeo Torriani', a prestigious prize for any cyclist. 

What a strange day today. It was looking good for a while with Giovani Visconti doing his utmost to win the stage, but ultimately, having some useless guys in the break with him meant that they never built up a good enough lead on a Saxo-led peloton and he was fighting a losing battle against a charging Astana squad as they hit the final climb. Frustration also that Mr Dysentry, who has been dying on his feet for the last week or so suddenly shits all over the opposition and sprints away from our man Hesjedal to deny him, and us, a well-deserved victory.

He did all I expected of him, attacking out of the favourites group, being let go by Contador who was happy to mark Landa. Kruiswijk went well but he didn't have the strength to go after him either. But then Aru, who was struggling a little earlier takes off like he has a rocket up his arse and catches and rides away from Hesjedal and puts a minute in to Contador and Landa to retake second place.. I'm sorry, but the more I see of this guy the less I like of him, that was just ridiculous today. This Giro has had far too many WTF moments for my liking, and they especially piss me off when they deny us a winning bet selection. The 1/4 the odds on 10/1 will have to do but it doesn't make up for a blank on the other bets.

Surprise packages of the day? Rigo Uran - suddenly he is back at the front of the race after obscurity for the last week or so. Ok, Landa, Contador and Co. were not exactly going full gas up ahead, as Contador didn't need to and Landa wasn't chasing Aru, but Uran attacked out of the chasing group and bridged up to the leading GC group and then attacked them and soloed to a fine 3rd place behind Contador. I wonder how many would have had Aru and Uran in their top three this morning, not a lot I'd imagine. It seems a lot of money was done on Contador and Landa who didn't even make the top three. Bookie benefit day today... 

The Route

This is another long-ish stage at 199kms, but not as long as the previous day's killer of 236kms. They are predominantly heading south after leaving Sestriere, going through the upper Po valley. When they reach Torino after around 100kms there is an Intermediate Sprint at Venaria Reale, and as both the Sprints come on the flat section we could see the likes of Nizzolo and Modolo try to get in the break. Nizzolo has a 17pt lead over Modolo so this competition isn't done and dusted yet.

They then turn right after Torino, still travelling along the Susa valley until they reach Susa after 151kms, where the second Intermediate Sprint is. If there are any sprinters in the break, they won't be there for much longer as the road suddenly kicks up as they leave the valley and head straight up the mountain side on what looks almost like a vertical cliff in the profile!

The climb of the Colle Delle Finestre is as mythical as it is brutal, harking back to the old black and white photo's of races in the early years of bike racing over gravelled surfaces. At least the bikes have more than one gear these days and the riders don't have to carry a spare tyre around their shoulders. It is a very twisty climb, especially the lower parts, which feature no fewer than 29 hairpin bends in four kilometres! That's a bend every 138m on average!

There are 45 hairpin bends in total by the time they get to the top. The first 1500m sees them hit slopes of 10, 11 and even 14% but it settles down to an average gradient of 9.3% through those hairpins for the next 8.3kms. At the 10.6km mark on the climb though the road suddenly changes from paved roads to a gravel track. It's pretty smooth as gravel roads go but it will still be an added challenge to the already very difficult climb. 

Punctures and dust could be added problems, so it will be a huge relief to the main protagonists if they can get over the top in one piece and start the 11km descent down to Pourriere, from where there are just 16.3kms left to go. The first part of the descent is technical, narrow and unprotected but as they reach the SS23 the road improves for the climb to the finish at Sestriere.

To get an idea of the road they face, take a look at the video below, it's a guy on a motorbike coming up the climb from the other side and over the top. You can see that as soon as they get over the top from the side they're coming at it tomorrow (the opposite to this guy, around the 20:00 mark) the road turns to gravel. As he descends the climb you get to see the sort of road and surface they will face tomorrow - it really is rough, uneven, dangerous gravel! The road switches back to an asphalt surface around the 35.50 mark but even then it is narrow, rough and broken. Watch out for the guy climbing the hill on a UNICYCLE at the 36.20 mark!!

The final climb to Sestriere is 16kms long at an average of 5.4% but it starts gentle and gets slowly harder as the climb winds its way up to the summit. The first 7kms are a very sedate 1.9%, barely even a climb. Kilometres 7-10 average 4.7% and then they enter the steepest little section for 3kms, but it still averages just 6.5%, hitting a max of 9%. The last 3kms average 5.3%, but there is a section at 7.2% 1500m from the line and it eases back to 4.1% for the final kilometre.

It's not a very hard final climb at all and could well be won by someone who isn't necessarily the best climber in the race but someone who still has strength left in his legs after three hard weeks and manages to hang in there, or close to the leaders over the Finestre. There is a roundabout 500m from the finish but it shouldn't be a problem with riders probably coming in in small groups and 1s and 2s.   

Contenders and Favourites

Fabio Aru.. Fabio 'Lazarus' Aru. Can he do it again tomorrow? Well first take a look at the video below - this was him riding the climb to Sestriere in August of last year. Some of the Astana squad also did an altitude training camp here not so long ago when Aru, Cataldo, Rosa and Tiralongo trained on the climb - according to this report "he knows the climbs like the back of his hand". Just bear that in mind.. 

Can he pull off a performance like today's two days in a row? It's possible.. It will depend on team orders as well, as Landa and Aru are in their own private battle for 2nd place. Will Landa attack his team-mate? Unlikely. Will Aru attack? Unless he is worn out after his big ride today then I think there is no doubt he will attack given his knowledge and affinity for the climb. At 8/1 with PP he offers a bit of value for an each-way bet.

Contador? 2/1 for a man who has looked uninterested in winning a stage in recent days, a man who looks to be already preparing for the TDF and is just happy to sit in and just watch and cover? Way too short. BUT - if he doesn't win a stage in this year's race it will be the second time he has won the race without winning a stage. And this is a monumental stage to win, an iconic stage, and maybe he has been saving himself in recent days for one last explosive effort to take the stage. The problem is that the climb doesn't really suit his style, it's not steep enough in the hard parts and is flat more or less for the last kilometre. I don't think he will be able to win it on the final climb and I don't think he will get away on the Finestre and stay away to the finish. I'm going to pass on Bertie tomorrow....

Landa? 7/2 to take another stage win for Astana? Maybe he'll be given the nod to attack tomorrow, but it looks like the GC decision has been made that they will get far more publicity and coverage to have Aru in 2nd place in the Tour of Italy than some Spaniard.. He is a big danger if the favourites come together in a small group at the finish though, he could jump away really late on, so no danger to Aru, and win the stage.. Or he could win the sprint amongst the GC men also. 7/2 is not a great price though. 

Rigo Uran has finally made a move in the race, but sorry Rigo, it's two weeks too late, 30 minutes back in the GC is a terrible result and one that he must be very disappointed with. He showed some good legs today though to ride up to, and then ride away from Contador and Landa today, something you'd have got a big price on this morning. Can he pull out another performance like that tomorrow? If he can hang in there with the GC men, if Contador just marks instead of attacks, then he could well be the best sprinter out of the group of favourites that contests the win. 22/1 offers a bit of value if they do come together to the finish, which is a possibility. 

Three other riders that also did some altitude training on Sestriere before the Giro are the two Bardiani guys I mentioned yesterday - Zardini and Bongiorno and Trek's Felline. It looks like I might have picked the wrong day for the Bardiani guys, they seem to have taken a day off today as they rolled in over 44 minutes down. Maybe they were recovering today after great rides on stage 18 with the intention of going on the attack again tomorrow? It's possible since they know the roads well.

Felline rode very well today, hanging on at the back of the Pink Jersey group right up until the final surges on the final climb. He comes from Torino so will know the roads well and may even have family and friends at the finish - never understimate the extra power and motivation that can give you - just look at today, we found out after Aru's girlfriend was waiting backstage in the podium area and greeted him with a hug and a kiss when he was wheeled in there. I think though that he might find the Finestre a bit tough, but if he can hang in there the climb to Sestriere should suit him well and he could well win the sprint. 

Hesjedal has been brilliant, I have really enjoyed watching him ride and I really would love for him to win a stage. But I'm not sure tomorrow's finish is one for him though. Carlos Betancur was many people's picks for today and he must have had them excited when he was in the early break of the day. Unfortunately he was one of the first to crack from the lead group and dropped right through the field by the finish. I think he is tiring now after a lot of effort and I can't see him winning tomorrow, or even finishing in the first 5.

Forget Konig, Atapuma, Chaves, Zakarin, Intxaustia and Caruso, they are just not good enough at the moment. Pelizzoti rode far better than I expected today but I can't see him winning the race. Vasil Kiryienka won in Sestriere in 2011 but he was on the attack today, if he fancied it tomorrow I think he'd have had a rest day today like some of the other guys. I'd like to try to pick some big priced outsiders, but I can't see any outsiders that could cause a surprise, It looks like it's between the top GC guys and I don't think the break will make it tomorrow. I think Contador and Landa are too short, but it would be just typical for them to finish 1st and 2nd tomorrow!

Instead, I think Aru has a good chance of doubling up now that he seems to have taken his vitamins and recovered so well and as he knows the climb so well. Uran has a great chance if he has strong legs again tomorrow, he could sprint to victory on that finish. Zardini at 66/1 and Bongiorno at 100/1 might be worth a small investment too. I also want to give Nieve one more shot, he seems to be getting stronger every day and could go on the attack tomorrow.

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Fabio Aru at 8/1 with PP.

0.5pts each-way on Rigo Uran at 22/1 with PP

0.2pts each-way on Zardini at 66/1 with Corals

0.2pts each-way on Bongiorno at 100/1 with Corals

0.3pts on Mikel Nieve at 40/1 with PP 

Matchbets:

Moinard to beat Cardoso - 1.2pts at 4/6 with PP

Uran to beat Kangert - 2.4pts at 5/6

Aru to beat Hesjedal - 1.5pts at 8/11

Nieve to beat Kangert - 1pt at 11/8

Pelizotti to beat Monsalve - 3pts at 5/6