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Published on Tuesday, 22 May 2018 21:32

Giro d'Italia St 17

Riva del Gardo to Iseo

Wed. 23rd May, 155kms 

Just like in stage 17 last year, this is a day that screams out breakaway, it has the perfect rolling profile for it and most GC men and their teams will be keeping their powder dry for the tough stages to come. 

I say it screams out breakaway, but we've had several days like that already and no breakaway winners, bar Mohoric's late attempt with 30kms to go on stage 10. No break from the start has been given enough rope to go and win the stage, Mitchelton-Scott mostly responsible for that, as they went in pursuit of time bonuses for Yates, but also the likes of Sky, Bahrain Merida, Bora and even confusingly EF Cannondale on Sunday when they chased down the break for no apparent reason. 

Nico Denz was proper pissed off with them for doing that, he thought he had a chance at stage victory if they hadn't. Maybe he'll get another go tomorrow to try to make up for it. There are sure to be several guys who will have taken the TT as a second rest day and will be ready to fly from the start here in an attempt to get in the break, teams are running out of opportunities to take a stage victory and their DS's will be screaming in their buses and screaming in their ears that they need to get in a break. Easier said than done of course, but there could well be one of those 10-15 men break go today, and maybe, just maybe if they get the right mix of riders and teams they might just make it this time. 

Stage 16 Review

Tom Dum floated around evens on Betfair for the 24 hours or so before the start of the TT, Dennis was pushed out from around 5/2 to 100/30, whereas Campanaerts was well supported, coming in from 11 to 7, probably because he represented about the only bit of value on the list. Froome and Martin were incredibly closer to 30s than 3s, a dramatic reflection of their fall from TT dominance.. then someone whacked Martin from around 34s down to around 20s in the morning.. what did they know we wondered.. 

Well the answer was, it was a pretty shrewd bet for a long time, as Tony M blitzed through the course to take the lead and held it for a very long time. Victor Campanaerts was rubbish, he lost to Jos Van Emden who did a hell of a lot better than in the first TT. Ryan Mullen got cramps with 10kms to go incredibly, not often you see that in pro cycling. In the end the losing matchbet actually turned out to be a winner as the race jury correctly decided that Pedersen had not only drafted the team van, but also his team-mate Boy Van Poppel.

But still, it wasn't enough to rescue the day - Campanaerts had blown everything. The place bet, the accas.. it was a bitter pill to have to swallow watching that one go down. And as for some of the other performances? Fabio Aru all but announced to the world that he had taken a blood bag yesterday, with a frankly ridiculous TT, finishing just 15" slower than Tom Dumoulin and ahead of some pretty strong TTists. Ok, he got a 20" penalty too in the end, but that performance was just unbelieveable, two days after he wanted to abandon and finished something like 35mins down. 

Yates too - what a ride by him, ok he lost time, like we all expected, more time than the optimists were hoping for, but not enough to dethrone him from the lead. The race looks all but over now, as unless he suffers an incident or an accident, none of which I'd rule out in this crazy Giro, he will probably even gain more time on his rivals on one or more of those mountain finishes to come. 

Dumoulin was disappointing though.. to finish only 15" ahead of Aru is an indication of just how bad he was/how fast Aru was.. but to lose by 22" to Dennis is a lot.. He didn't come near taking the stage, or taking the pink, it was a doubly disappointing day for him. Dennis though - superb ride from him, moves him up to 6th and firmly plants him in the top 10, it wil take a bad meltdown from him now to lose the top 10 bets. And who knows, in this crazy Giro he might get up the road some day and take enough time to podium.. he's only a couple of minutes off it.. 

Pinot had a shocker, Pozzo wasn't much better, and Lopez and Carapaz continued their ding-dong battle for white, with Lopez now in pole-position.. but our man O'Connor is only 86" behind Carapaz, would be great if he keeps powering on and Carapaz fades next week.. 

The Route

A route that looks perfect for a breakaway day, they climb from the flag drop up an uncategorised climb which is actually 10kms at 5.5%, a pretty tough start to the day! From there the road runs along a plateau for 12kms, then descends for 35kms towards Vestone where the intermediate sprint is located, then they climb the Cat 3 hill to Lodrino, a not-too-difficult 3.8% for around 11kms. 

After the Lodrino climb, a technical descent past Polaveno will lead the peloton to Franciacorta. The route continues through a few small towns, with several sharp bends and some level crossings, it takes a first pass over the finish line in Iseo after 127.3kms, and then it enters the final 23.9 km circuit. The final circuit is very demanding; it is raced on relatively narrow yet well-surfaced roads, often passing through small villages. The last level crossing is 6km before the finish.

The final 5kms are fairly intricate, as the route takes in a number of roundabouts, including the last (wide) one, approx. 500 m before the finish. The home straight (300 m) is on 7-m wide asphalt road.

Contenders

Breakaway lottery time again? Well I think we have to try, you'd have to think that ONE day the break will stick, and ONE day we might have some guys actually give us a chance of winning. As I said in the intro above already, I would expect Nico Denz to try to get in the break again, or will he wait for a hillier day? Yes, this stage is hilly at the start, but then it finishes pretty flat, and we saw that he was outdone by Mohoric on stage 10, and he's not exactly a noted sprinter. If he does get in the break I think he will have to solo away before the finish and I'm not sure he can. 

So who else then? I think you need to be able to climb obviously to get in the break at the start, big watts will be needed to join that break as the pace will be furious, even if it's just a 5% climb. It is 10kms long though, so although it might take 3 or 4 kms or more to get going, there is still plenty of time to build a 3-4 min lead quickly if the peloton knocks back the pace. But if the break hasn't gone by the half way point on the climb, then I am not sure they'll make it. They will get a chance on the descent and flat to build up the lead and then add to it on the Lodrino, and if they have 7 mins or so at the top there, they can probably hang on. 

So who are the power men for today? Luis Leon Sanchez - again we go to the well with him.. he's been stopped in every attempt so far, even on the stage through Scarponi's town when he tried to win it for him, no sympathies in the peloton for that. But he is sure to be an instigator again on the first climb, and he has the attacking skills to try to get away late on too. And failing that, he hasn't a bad sprint against most non sprinters. He took it easy today in the TT, but if he doesn't make it, or isn't up for it, maybe Alexey Lutsenko can finally do something.

I see people have been backing him for almost every break stage and he has done absolutely nothing yet, he looks to be on Lopez duties.. Maybe they'll send him up the road instead, he didn't do a bad TT today, finishing in 27th, the legs must be ok. 

One rider who I've been thinking about backing since the start of the race at some point is Krists Neilands, the young Austrian from the Israel team is a solid, powerful rider that has poked his nose in the wind a few times this Giro but hasn't been able to get the right moves either. This stage might be a good fit for him, he's not a bad climber and he has a lot of power. He pottered around in the TT today, I think he took another rest day. 

Tony Martin was excellent today, but was left disappointed as he was passed by the top two TT'ers in the world right at the end. Could he try again tomorrow? He clearly has good legs, but I'm not sure he'll be the right man for that hilly start, he'll have to work very hard to go with the climbers. 

Giovanni Visconti is another who has been trying to get in every break lately without any success, he is sure to try again and this sort of stage suits him well. Same with Gianluca Brambilla, but neither of them will beat a fast sprinter type if one infiltrates the break. His team-mate Jarlinson Pantano has also been active but unable to find a break that sticks, he might try again and he can sprint a little too. And Mads Pedersen showed today that he is absolutely flying as well, we tried him before in this race with no joy, maybe we give him another go as he is bound to get in the break and win when we're not on - small bet at 33/1.

Matej Mohoric is also likely to try, he's in great form and is not afraid to attack hard at the start, his descending skills will also help the break stretch out their gap on the first descent, he'll keep the pace high. Georg Preidler, Ben Hermans, Felix Grossschartner, Clement Veturini, Mads Wurtz Schmidt, Lars Bak - all riders who could be involved too.. And not forgetting Diego Ulissi, the UAE team team look like they took their vitamins over the rest day, they came out flying today in the TT, with two of them in the top 10. He could get in the break, or attack late from the peloton if they catch the break. 

But what if the break doesn't make it, and a peloton of some description catches them? The bookies seem to think there is a good chance of that as they make Elia Viviani and Sam Bennett the joint 6/1 favourites.. but they are 6/1 and not evens and 3/1, so there is only about a 30% chance probably that they make it.. But even if some sprinters make it, Viviani won't I think.. Even Bennett is going to struggle, but Sacha Modolo might make it - he was on the attack on Sunday, but bizarrely EF decided to chase..

He gives two chances - he might get in the break again, and would win that sprint, but he might also be one of the few sprinters that makes it if the break is reeled in. And even if it all comes back together and all the sprinters make it, he could make the top 3 as the sting might have been taken out of the legs of the top two. 

So, I know it's probably suicidal, and we should be just piling on yet another peloton win, but it has to make it one day and I think this could be it. So a few darts to see if we can get back on track.

Recommendations:

0.3pts e/w on Mads Pedersen at 33/1 

0.5pts e/w on Sacha Modolo at 16/1

0.5pts e/w on Luis Leon Sanchez at 18/1 

0.2pts e/w on Krists Neilands at 66/1

Matchbets

Bennett to beat Viviani - 2pts at 8/11

Modolo to beat Bonifazio and Pantano to beat Brambilla - 2pts at 6/4