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Published on Wednesday, 10 May 2017 22:34

Giro d'Italia St 6

Reggio Calabria – Terme Luigiane

Thurs 11th May, 217kms 

This is a bit more interesting now, back on the Italian mainland and a stage a bit more like something out of Tirreno-Adriatico with a lumpy last 40kms and a punchy uphill finish to the spa town of Terme Luigiane. 

The stage spends almost the entire day hugging the west coast of the Clabria region of the toe of Italy and the wind could play an important part in this stage again with a southerly wind blowing all day.  

Today's stage was quite exciting in the end, with Luka Pibernik taking the prize for dummy of the day, celebrating a lap too soon after escaping off the front of the peloton. The last lap was chaotic, but top marks to Quickstep who massed the front when it mattered the most and delivered Gaviria. He was made fight all the way for it though, as a resurgent Sam Bennett almost won, just tying up in the dying strides, but held on for an impressive 3rd considering what he has been through. 

There was also an incredible sprint from Jakub Marezcko to take 3rd place, coming from a mile back to jump on to Griepel's wheel and sheltered from his enormous frame for a few seconds before nipping past him in the last 20m.. Another 20m and he'd have probably won.. Nizzolo suffered like a dog all day again and finished way down the field. But chumps of the day were Orica Scott, who made a complete mess of their leadout, falling apart as they went around the big roundabout with 1500m to go. Ewan's leadout were all over the place, he was miles back and as they sat up to try to wait for him and regroup, the others were already winding up their sprints. Very disappointing from them.

So no good today, Marezcko's stunning 2nd place bust the double and Pinot decided today of all days to take a break from trying to finish high up on the stage. If you were keeping abreast of things on Twitter though, I gave out two in-play bets which both won at 11/10 and 6/4 to land 6pts, hope some of you were able to get on.

The Route

The stage starts from Reggio Calabria (prologue town in 2005 and stage town in nine occasions) and the route is basically flat for most of the stage, but there is a Cat 3 climb of the Barriterri after just 27kms (11.3kms at 4.2%) and after 70kms they start climbing again up to Mileto where the first intermediate sprint point is. Just 12kms later they pass the second intermediate sprint of the day at Vibo Valentia, a strange way to arrange the stage with two sprints so close, so early in the stage. It may mean that we start to see the likes of Giacomo Nizzolo get in the break in order to try to pick up some easy points for the jersey competition. 

A 16km descent is followed by a long flat run along the coast for the next 70kms and the last 40kms are quite lumpy, starting with a short, steep climb after Marina di Fuscaldo. The Fuscaldo Cat 4 climb (right) is only 2kms long, but it averages a testing 6.8% and it tops out with just 24kms to go, so it could make for a launchpad for late attacks ahead of the circuit in Messina. 

This is followed by a technical descent leading to the final 15 kilometres, on a route that takes in a 600m stretch on dual carriageway. It descends through some tricky hairpain bends with 5kms to go and continues to descend on a wavy road that takes them all the way to the 2km to go point where the road start to kick up to the finish.

The final climb is 2km at an average 5.3% gradient, on wide, well-surfaced roadway, with no sharp changes of direction. The final 700m average over 8% though, hitting 10% in parts, making it a tough run to the finish and one for the 'puncheurs' and 'finisseurs' they are saying.. 

But this finish is really tough - it looks like it's the same finish that they used in 2003 on a stage that was won by Stefano Garzelli, winner of the Giro in 2000.. As you can see in the video below, it's a real grind to the line, they were all on the limit and Garzelli just accelerated to victory right at the end. It was a top 20 of mostly climbers, with the likes of Pantani in 16th, but right there in 3rd place was Alessandro Petacchi, which shows that strong sprinters could get in the mix as well. 

Contenders and Favourites

This is a devilishly difficult stage to call - a break has a big chance of making it for a number of reasons - there's a few lumps at the start to help with escapes, they have a tail-wind all day to help the break's chances, the finish to the stage is wide open so there might not be too many teams too desperate to work all day, some of the GC teams will have their eye on Blockhaus on Saturday and there are plenty of guys who have lost so much time that they will be able to slip away without the peloton worrying too much.

Add to that the fact a lot of escape artists have seemingly been keeping their powder dry, we've had really rubbish breaks up until now, and you might think that some riders have decided to target specific stages quite rigidly. The Lotto Soudal DS said in an interview after the stage today that he didn't expect the sprinters to be fighting out the finish tomorrow and he expects a big break to finally go.

I concur with his feelings, but picking the break candidates from about 150 riders is not easy, and I'm going to hedge my bets a little bit by picking some guys who could wear two hats - get in the break, or attack up this hill if it's all together coming to the finish. The GC candidates will have to be on their toes too on a stage like this, I wouldn't be surprised if there were wheels let get in the last 500m and little gaps appear.

Bet365 have made Fernando Gaviria favourite, but a favourites odds of 7/1 shows just how wide open it is. I think the only way he could win on this finish though is if he gets in the break, as he will not be able to compete with the climbers/puncheurs up that last 2kms I think. And it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him in the break, as there are two intermediate sprints early on in the stage and he has shown how committed he is to the intermediate sprints by taking two of them today thanks to his team-mates leadouts (well 3rd place in them). We could see Laurens de Plus or Keisse or someone like that go with him. 

Jasper Stuyven is second favourite at 11/1 and he too is like Gaviria, he could get in the break, but also he has a slightly better chance I think of featuring at the finish if it's a bunch gallop. He has shown his interest in the Points competition too though, sprinting at some of the intermediates and sprinting to 9th today when he got the nod that Nizzolo wasn't feeling so good. 

Enrico Battaglin is next at 15/1 with WillHill and he's one I like - as you know I've picked him a few times already and he's been close enough, but he just doesn't have the top top speed to beat the real sprinters here. But Battaglin is a good punchy rider who would definitely be able to hold his own in a small group sprint, if most other sprinters weren't around. He has 13th, 6th and 10th place so far in this race and I think he might be given a bit of freedom tomorrow to attack.. and if he doesn't, he may well be there at the finish for a group sprint if it comes to it. He won a brilliant stage in 2014 on a day he was in a break to Oropa, grinding out a sprint win against Cataldo, Pantano and Jan Polanc, winner on Etna.. 

As I just mentioned, Jan Polanc did great on that stage to Oropa, he could try again, but he might be still recovering form his exertions on Etna. Nathan Haas is just 14/1 and he was one I had on my shortlist, but he tweeted this tonight "One of those days you didn't understand! Struggling from the gun, never got the legs spinning circles... Tomorrow I hope is better:(" and that worries me, he was clearly struggling today.. even if he gets in the break, which takes a lot of effort, he may not be able to survive the finish. 

Sacha Modolo could be one that I would normally be picking for this I think, he could hang in there and maybe sprint to victory, but he's disappointed so far in this race and I can't rely on him for this I think. Enrico Gasparotto has one of the best CVs for a finish like this, being a dual winner of Amstel Gold, but he has been very poor so far in this race, and sits almost 21' down on GC. Now, that could be him taking it easy and waiting for an opportunity, and tomorrow could be one, but I'm not sure he'll be let go in the break of the day by Nibali, now that he has lost a vital lieutenant with the expulsion of Moreno. So it would have to be from the group sprint, if it comes to it, and I'm not sure about that. 

Matteo Montaguti of AG2R is another I like for this - winner of a stage in the Tour of the Alps just two weeks ago, he outsprinted Thibaut Pinot and Rohan Dennis on the line in the uphill sprint. He's just 3'11" back in the GC though so he might not get much room to get in the break, but if he does, he has a great chance. And if he doesn't, we might well see AG2R working to try to pull it back as I think he has a good chance on that finish, as does Pozzovivo in the uphill sprint.

Forget about Greipel and Ewan, they won't be there, Nizzolo probably not either unless he stages another of his miracle recoveries like he did on stage 2. Cannondale Drapac have literally almost the whole team who could be players in this stage, be it from the break or in an uphill group sprint. Tom Jelte Slagter, Hugh Carthy, Michael Woods, Davide Villela, Alex Howes, they could all be involved, and getting a few in the break could help with the team prize.. 

Ben Hermans could have been a big chance here based on his form in Oman, but he's been a lot quieter since then. I don't think he'll get in the break tomorrow, but he could have a chance in the uphill sprint. Tejay should be ok in the finish so he could get the green light to go for it. Rui Costa was one that I thought might like this stage too, but his poor performance on Etna where he lost time to the GC favourites worries me, they weren't exactly going full gas up that climb, maybe Rui isn't 100% yet. 

Pelle Bilbao was 66/1 I think when 365 opened, I dallied as I was writing and he's now 33/1.. 66/1 was great, 33/1 is only alright.. Astana have no GC man, they have been trying so far with a number of attacks along the way, but none have stuck, he might fancy it tomorrow. He lies over 16' down on GC, so there shouldn't be any problem letting him go, and he won a great stage from a break in the Tour of Turkey last year when he finished alongside his team-mate José Goncalves. Goncalve is now with Katusha though and is another at 33/1 and he too could go in the break, maybe the two old team-mates might have a chat and go for it together.. 

Rudy Mollard is another I like the look of at a huge price of 125/1, this guy has recently finished 8th in La Fleche Wallone, and 17th in LBL he's not afraid of an uphill finish. FDJ might let him go in the break, he might give it a go at the finish with Pinot and Reichenbach leading him out to the last 200m. 

So, so many other riders could be involved - Matteo Busato, Simone Ponzi, Patrick Konrad, Gio Visconti, and if it comes to a GC battle, Pinot, Zakarin, Kruijswijk, Yates and Mollema could all be involved too. I actually like Simone Ponzi too, CCC have been getting guys in the break and they could try again tomorrow and may even have more than one guy.. He'd have a chance in a break sprint too, at 80/1 he's worth a shot. 

Not a day to go crazy with the stakes tomorrow, anything could happen, it could be wide open as the betting suggest.. I think it will be a very exciting finish regardless though, be it from a break or a GC battle. A scatter-gun approach with a bunch of bets is the way I'm going to go about it I think, hopegully some of them will give us a run for our money. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Enrico Battaglin at 15/1 with Will Hill

0.3pts each-way on José Goncalves at 33/1

0.3pts each-way on Pelle Bilbao at 33/1 with Bet365

0.4pts each-way on Matteo Montaguti at 33/1 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way on Simone Ponzi at 80/1 with Bet365

0.2pts each-way on Rudy Mollard at 125/1 with Bet365 

Matchbets

Mollema to beat Nibali - 2pts at 5/6

Montaguti to beat LL Sanchez - 3pts at 5/6