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Published on Monday, 08 May 2017 12:04

Giro d'Italia St 4

Cefalù – Etna (Rifugio Sapienza)

Tuesday 9th May, 180kms 

So after the phoney war in Sardinia with three sprint stages, the GC battle kicks in to life on just the fourth stage, with the first summit finish of the race on Mount Etna. It will be the first sign we will get of who maybe isn't 100% and anyone who loses time here will perhaps lose a lot more in terms of confidence and belief. 

This is more like the Giro.. A crazy fast run along the coast where winds could cause problems for some before some are even warmed up. They they turn right and straight in to a 33km climb that takes them to over 1,500m. Then they descend for almost 60kms before a climb up to the legendary summit finish on Mount Etna. Why is it legendary? Well firstly, as it's on a bloody volcano, and an active one at that! Secondly, it was the scene of one of Alberto Contador's most famous victories when he danced away from all his rivals and won by 50" in the 2011 Giro, with Nibali in 4th and Kreuziger in 5th. (see the video below), albeit that they came up from a different side. 

It was to be part of what delivered him his second Giro win by over six minutes from Michele Scarponi, a result that was later scratched from the records because of his Clenbuterol ban, elevating the late Scarponi to victor. 

What a crazy and exciting ending to Sunday's stage 3 we had! I did warn about the wind, and lo and behold, who was it that pushed and took advantage of it? Quickstep.. of course.. As Martin Earley, the former pro reportedly said to his son Joe today regarding the result "Belgians had to ride to school in echelons".. in fact though it was a Luxembourgian that did all the damage as Bob Jungels powered at the front for seemingly all of the last 10kms. In the end it was a penalty kick for Gaviria and the Colombian took his first Grand Tour stage win in front of his mum, dad and sister.

Giacomo Nizzolo did very well to get amongst them, he was alert to what was going on and looked pretty strong after his rest-day yesterday. After going out to 12/1 for the Point Jersey last night I was tempted to back him again, I wish I had now, he's right back in it and back in to 6/1. He was unlucky too, Richeze cut across him a little just as he was winding up his sprint, he wouldn't have beaten Gaviria, but the extra points for 2nd place for the points jersey might have been very valuable by the finish. And behind, Ewan of course won the sprint ahead of Modolo and Greipel..

Gibbons easily won his matchbet at a very tasty 7/4, but the treble was bust by just one again, with Kuznetsov beating Battaglin by just 5 places.. a small 0.5pt loss on the day, I think we were unlucky with the result, but maybe I should have had a bit more conviction behind what I thought might happen with Quickstep in the wind.  

The Route

They start in Cefalu in the north of the island and spend the first 54kms heading east to Aquadolci along the coast before turning inland and starting to climb almost as soon as they leave the coast. They should have a cross/tailwind in these opening 50kms, which will mean an extremely fast start to the stage, and I wouldn't be surprised if no break managed to get away before they turned inland. It could also see some teams looking to stir things up from the very start and maybe try to split the race, but I'm not sure the wind is going to be strong enough to do that.

Once they turn inland they start on the climb to Portella Femina Morta (The little door of the dead woman!), which in its entirety is 36.8kms long, at a relatively gentle 4.46% average gradient. So although it's an easy enough gradient, 36kms of climbing will drain the weaker climbers, the second half is slightly harder, with gradients of 5-6%. We might see maybe only half the peloton cresting the top in the front group.

A 30km descent is followed by a little 4km kick-up to Bronte, where the first intermediate (TV) sprint is, then it's more descending until 32kms to go where the road starts to rise up again. From Santa Maria di Licodia there is an uncategorised climb that is actually quite hard, 4.8kms at an average of 7.2%, where we could see some early attacks before the final act. There is a small downhill run for 7.8kms before the final climb to the summit on Etna. 

The climb to Etna is 18kms in total at an average of 6.6%, but the last 9kms are a little tougher, averaging over 7.5%, but it's a pretty steady gradient all the way up, there's only one steep section for around 500m that hits 12%. The road winds its way up the mountain, surrounded at times by magma rocks from the volcano, and as they approach the last kilometre the road starts to ease off again, with the last 200m being only slightly uphill, at a gradient of just 3%.

It's a different side to the climb they did in 2011, this one is slightly steeper and more irregular, although incredibly, despite coming on a different road, more to the south-west than south, the distance of the climb is exactly the same at 18kms. This year's climb averages 6.6%, in 2011 it was 6.1%. It's also more irregular in parts this year, but the key last 7kms or so are pretty steady. 

Contenders and Favourites

The GC is going to change hands for the fourth time in four days, something that has only happened once before in 2010, but back then it was after a Team Time Trial. Who took the lead that day? One Vincenzo Nibali.. Ivan Basso went on to take the overall GC that year, with Nibali in 3rd, Scarponi 4th and a young 25-year old Richie Porte in 7th place. 

This is going to be another interesting stage - we are probably going to see the first strong break of the race go. Up until now it's been the smaller teams and some of the opportunists like Teklehaimanot who have been getting up the road, we could see a very different break tomorrow with the likes of Pierre Rolland, Omar Fraile, Alexander Geniez and the like looking to get away. There's a Cat 2 climb's points up for grabs and the slight possibility that if there is a bit of a stand-off amongst the GC teams so early in the race they might just stay away to take the stage victory. 

Will that happen though, or will we see the GC teams race hard to see who's in top shape and who isn't? Hard to know - it's a long race and it may be that the likes of Movistar, Bahrain Merida or Sky might not want to take ownership of the leader's jersey so early in the race. But this is a mythical and legendary finish and I'm sure there are a lot of guys who have their eyes on taking the prize here, it could see whoever takes the lead in the GC hang on to it until stage 9 on Sunday. 

Of course the bookies have literally almost copied each other so we have Thibaut Pinot as favourite with both Bet365 and PP, followed by Quintana and Nibali - no imagination whatsoever. So Thibaut Pinot - you can see why he's favourite, he will like the gradient of this climb and has proven only a matter of weeks ago that he can win a sprint against other climbers. Winner of the Queen stage to Andalucia, catching Contador who looked the winner with 1km to go and going straight past him in the last 300m or so. He was equally as impressive in the Tour of The Alps, winning the stage to Trento in the sprint with Thomas and Pozzovivo after some impressive climbing earlier in the stage, but it was also because of how well he rode on some of the other stages that mark him out as a key player in this stage. 

Nairo Quintana - 6/1 2nd favourite.. do we see him take off on only the first climbing test of the race? It's possible, he tends to like to stamp his authority early in races and on key iconic climbs. In Tirreno he attacked away and won by 18" on terminillo, a very similar climb to this one, nearly 17kms long at an average of 7.1%. He left Thomas behind with 2.2kms to go, caught Spilak and just rode straight past him. He also won the Queen stage in Valenciana, and I would also liken this finish to Lagos de Cavadonga in the Vuelta last year where he destroyed all his rivals and won by 24" to Gesink and over a minute to Chaves and Contador. He was 24" behind Gesink with 3.5kms to go, but put the hammer down and dropped Contador and Fraile, caught Gesink and passed him like he was dragging an anchor just 1km later. It was truly impressive. If he attacks like that tomorrow, no one will be able to live with him. 

Vincenzo Nibali - 13/2.. massive, massive motivation for Nibali to win here and wear the Maglia Rosa in to his home town of Messina the next day, that would be pretty special for him. He could see this mountain from his home when he grew up, it's only 100kms away from Messina. He will have raced and trained up this climb lots in his career, be it as a young man or more recently in preparation for this. He should know the climb like the back of his hand, he finished 3rd here when Contador won in 2011 but as much as I would love to see him do it though, I don't think he has it in him this year. I think if this climb came later in the race, in maybe the third week, we'd have seen him give it a real good go, but I don't think he is good enough to drop all the best climbers here, and he'd have one of the worst sprints of the climbers he might face in a sprint finish. 

Adam Yates is 8/1 with both bookies too, and he could be one to go well here too - will not be watched as closely as some of the main guys and has a real punchy finish on him if it is needed at the finish in a sprint. 3rd to La Molina in Volta a Catalunya, leading home the first group behind Martin and Valverde, 4th overall and then 8th in LBL shows that he is climbing well. And he has started well here too, he currently sits in 13th place, on the same time as all the other key GC favourites, so he too could take the race leaders jersey should he win the stage, or finish better than those around him if someone else wins the stage. He doesn't really have great protection with him, but Carlos Verona, Ruben Plaza and Chris Juul Jensen will look after him for as long as they can and he can then sit in the wheels of Sky and Movistar and maybe pounce late. 

Mikel Landa and Geraint Thomas could both win this stage too, Landa has probably the better chance of the two as he is more explosive for a late attack with a few kilometres to go and he has a good sprint finish on him if needed. Thomas used to have a reasonably good sprint on him, but he seems to have lost his kick with improvements in his climbing.. Both will be heavily marked though, but that can play in to their hands, they have two cards to play, whereas every other team has only one really. Thomas can wait and let the others chase Landa, he won't be easy to catch, and then attack over the top if there is a little lull. 

This is the kind of climb that suits Bauke Mollema really well too, a solid, steady gradient with no real changes in pitch and steepness, he tends to struggle on those sorts of climbs. He hasn't impressed me so far this year too much though, he was almost 2 mins back on the Queen stage to Lo Port in Catalunya and he was only 11th on Terminillo in Tirreno, 33" back on Thomas, 51" back on Quintana. 

Steven Kruijswijk started impressing early in last year's race, he was sitting in 4th place after just 4 stages. He can climb well of course, and he sometimes tends to go long on a climb like this, it might catch some off guard. He is a marked man now though, he won't be given any freedom, not only by Quintana and Movistar, but not either by all his many rivals for the other potential spots on the podium. The likes of Pinot, Nibali, Yates and the rest will not want to lose any time to him so early in the race. And if it came to a reduced sprint, several of these guys will beat him. 

Ilnur Zakarin could also be one to try a late attack, but he's had a rough first few days, maybe he will need to just sit in a little and mark the moves and save his energy for later in the race. Plus, I don't think he was climbing well enough in Romandie to be a key player here. He is 43" down on the GC though, so if he wants to haul himself back in to GC contention he will need to start making a move earlier rather than later I think. 

Pierre Rolland is just 22/1, but that is I think in the hope that he will get in the break and they hold on, but I don't think that is going to happen.. He will not be winning this if it's a GC battle. Tom Dumoulin is one who could power away early on in this climb and grind his way to victory, but I don't think that will happen Tuesday, possibly later in the race. Rui Costa is one I like though at 40/1 with Will Hill - he was 50/1 with Bet365 when they opened first and I was interested in that, it looked way too big, but seems others thought the same as he is half that price now with them. 

He was riding really well earlier in the season with very impressive wins in San Juan and Abu Dhabi, and a fine 3rd on Green Mountain in Oman. Steady, but not spectacular in the Ardennes, that's not really his thing though, but this kind of a stage is I think. 2nd on the stage to Andorra Arcalis in the Tour last year, beaten by his break companion Tom Dumoulin, he rode well that day and if he can get away with a small group of hopefuls in this stage he has a decent kick on him that could propel him to stage victory and the Maglia Rosa.. that would be nice for our 200/1 GC bets!

Omar Fraile is 40/1 also and he can't be ruled out from the break of the day, if it comes to a GC battle, he won't win it. I think Jungels is a bit too heavy to win on such a tough climb, but he's riding so well, anything is possible. Domenico Pozzovivo impresed me in the ToTA too, he was sprightly and aggressive, unlike we've seen him for a few years and was rewarded with a step on the podium in 3rd place. 7th on Teminillo in Tirreno, 41" behind Quintana was a good ride, it helped him up to 10th place overall, not a bad result considering he was 74th after the TTT on day one. He is only 15/1 with WillHill, but over twice that price at 33/1 with Skybet and I'm going to have a small interest in that, he could be one of the lighter guys who can stay with Quintana if he goes and could land a podium spot.

At bigger prices, Joe Dombrowski, Hugh Carthy, Davide Villela, Ben Hermans, Sergey Firsanov and Valero Conti can go well too possibly, Cannondale might have quite a few cards to play actually on a stage like this, Michael Woods could be another but I fear it just isn't steep enough for him! Rohan Dennis suffered a late crash in stage 3 and might be looking to make up for the five minutes he lost.. he could attack early in the climb and just start TTing on its not-so-steep gradients, freeing up Tejay maybe to have a go later on.. I can't see Tejay winning it though, but he won't be far off the winners time I'd think. 

So a real tricky opening stage on the mountains, hard to know if they will all show their hands just yet or look to lay down some markers in just the first week.. Add in the usual worries about who will go well and who won't after a rest-day and it can make it a minefield on a volcano.. It's worth remembering too that this is not steep all the way to the finish, rather the last kilometre starts to flatten out and the last 200m are only at a 3% gradient. This could mean that the punchier types who have just managed to hold on can outsprint a pure climber, or that a group of strong guys could close down a small gap on a lone rider in the last kilometre if it's close.. Let's face it, if Valverde was here, he'd win. 

It's also worth noting that there will be a head/crosswind against them for most of the climb, which will make it difficult to get away and it could become very tactical with attackers waiting until the last 3kms where they will get two sections of tail-wind as it zig-zags through the hairpins, with the last kilometre ridden with a tail-wind.. 

Nairo looks the obvious pick, he could well do his trademark attack with 2-3kms to go and put 30" in to these guys and he'll be 1/3 for the race Tuesday night... But the headwinds might put him off it in favour of keeping his strength for later in the race, plus Movistar might not want the pressure of leading from just they 5th stage. Pinot is too short for me, but you can see the appeal, he will be there or thereabouts at the finish and could be one of the better sprinters..  

Adam Yates has a big chance with a late attack, he won't mind the headwinds, he'll just go for it, and if Rui Costa can hang in there, he could be a big danger in the sprint. I like Pozzovivo's chances too, he's from southern Italy and with no prologue or TTT to have screwed his chances by now, he is in a great position to possibly wear pink while riding through his neck of the woods - he may never get another chance to do so.

Update: 10.35am - have added a small bet on Paolo Tiralongo at 50/1 with Skybet, he has said that he wants to win on Etna for Scarponi, reported to have said after Scarponi's death 'See you on Etna'.. Also he said this on his website yesterday: "Tomorrow first day of rest the Giro and finally landed in my Sicily. I do not hide the excitement of racing on my streets. I just hope I have the space to try to move the race and try to win the stage. See you tomorrow." (google translated).. worth a pop at 50/1. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Rui Costa at 40/1 with WillHill

0.5pts each-way on Domenico Pozzovivo at 33/1 with Skybet

0.5pts each-way on Adam Yates at 8/1 with 365

0.25pts each-way on Paolo Tiralongo at 50/1 with Skybet

Matchbets

Costa to beat Konrad and Pinot to beat Nibali - 2pts on the double at 1.6/1 with 365

Yates to beat Quintana - 1pt at 13/8 with WillHill

Pinot to beat Nibali - 2pts at 7/10 with WillHill