- Details
- Published on Friday, 17 May 2019 20:40
Giro d'Italia St 8
Tortoreto Lido - Pesaro
Sat 18th May, 239kms
The longest stage of the Giro at 239kms, it has a touch of the Milan-SanRemo's about it, with a flat opening 160kms and then a lumpy end to the day, even ending with a charge down a descent to the 2.5kms to go mark.
It really does look like a snooze-fest for the first four hours as they head up along the coast, but once they turn left and start heading inland after Ponte Sasso, around the 140km mark the road starts to get a little lumpier and more interesting.
The hills come thick and fast in the closing 80kms and culiminate in a fast 5km descent and a 2km flat run in to the finish. Looks a good day for a breakaway to take it, either the break of the day making it all the way, or late attacks in the closing 25kms that manage to hang on down that descent.
Stage 7 Review
Where do you even start with today's stage? It was crazy from the start - over 50kmph for the first hour, with attack after attack after attack, all neutralised. Then a big break of 19 went up the road and got around a minute, but with several dangerous GC candidates in there, Bahrain chased hard and brought it back. Soon after, another break went, with a lot of the same characters involved, and suddenly the elastic snapped.
We had Gallopin and Cattaneo in there, along with the surprising inclusion of Davide Formolo and Pelle Bilbao, and even Thomas de Gendt who said he wouldn't be going in the break today. He did sit up though early on on the climb of the day, saving the legs for another day after a good training session.. The break worked very well together though and stretched their lead to over 2 mins with just 25kms to go as UAE struggled to contain it.
Trek and Bardiani then started chasing, but it was too late and it came down to a fight out amongst Gallopin, Cattaneo, Bilbao, Formolo and Lucas Hamilton up the final hill. One lapse of concentration from Formolo, and Bilbao was gone with 1km to go. They tried to chase him, but he was not for catching, and of course Gallopin won the sprint for 2nd..
I really thought we would pull a winner out today, we had two guys in the final 5, Cattaneo looking really strong, Gallopin a wiley old fox, but in the end Cattaneo used up his reserves trying to chase down Bilbao with 1km to go when he might have been better off waiting to try something with maybe 500m or so to go, Gallopin just seemed to be playing games to me.
Yes, he was dangling and hanging off the back quite a way from home, but I think there was a lot of bluffing going on, as in the end he had the most strength left to take the sprint for 2nd. If only they hadn't let Bilbao go.. What it does mean though is that our 300/1 man Bilbao is now ahead of Roglic in the GC and sits in 11th overall. If the guys above start to fall off he could find himself in the top 3 going in to the second week.
Small profit on the each-way on Gallopin but as Hugh Carthy decided to attack in the closing kilometres and burn himself out, and the peloton finished in a bit of a mess, the matchbets lost.
The Route
A run up along the coastline for 138kms, then they turn left and go inland and the road starts to get hillier. The biggest obstacle of the day is the Cat 3 Monte Della Mattera which rises up for 9kms at 4%. There are another five or six little hills to get over in the last 60kms of very twisting and turning roads, including two Cat 4 climbs, it's going to be fast and hard like the conclusion to MSR.
And although there is no Poggio-style climb before the finish, the road does charge down a very tricky descent that has nine hairpin bends between 6kms and 3kms to go before flattening out and straightening out for the last 2.5kms. There is a 90 degree right-hander with 600m to go, then another with just 250m to go, it's a very short finishing straight, it's almost as if they don't expect a peloton to be contesting this finish. (below)
The weather is not very good tomorrow though, with rain forecast all day again, it will make it difficult for the break to be battling against all day, but it will also make it tricky on those descents in the last stages of the race, the GC men need to watch themselves.. But also, it might come down to who is bravest in the final turns..
Route Map
Profile
Finish Profile
Last Kms
Contenders and Favourites
This is really an impossible one to call.. Longest stage of the race, who wants to be in a break all day, for maybe 200kms? But who wants to chase for 200kms? It was a very, very hard day all round today, average speed of over 45kmph, there will be a lot of tired legs in the peloton who will want to rest up a little ahead of the TT on Sunday. The break could make it, but if not, we could see a lot of late action in the last 40kms or so with the two Cat 4s and lots of other little lumps for attackers to have a go on.
But there is also a good chance here for the tougher sprinters to take a stage win, if they are still in the bunch with 20kms to go, then it should come down to a sprint. Navigating the finish is going to be a bit of a challenge for all teams, it's going to be very hard to form a leadout of any description until less than 2kms to go, and then that last right-hander with 250m to go could very well decide the stage anyway.
Victor Campanaerts and Thomas de Gendt have both suggested today that they were just saving themselves for tomorrow to look after Caleb Ewan and to give him a shot at the victory, and he'd have a decent shot with a finish like this. There is a good chance we'll see something like we saw today with Viviani going out the back door if the climbs are raced fast enough, even if they are not very hard. And if they are raced really, really hard we might even see Ackermann go too.
But Ackermann has looked really strong and it may be that with such a strong team around him he might just make the finish, where he might find that his two main rivals are not there to fight it out with him, now that Gaviria has gone home and Viviani might be dropped. The question is though, will Bora be looking for a quiet day for Formolo and McCarthy after a tough day today for both of them in the break today? If they do take a back seat, who else will chase? He's 11/4, which relects the chances that he might not make it, I think if it was a flat stage he'd be closer to 6/4 or something like that as he clearly looks the strongest sprinter at the moment.
Groupama FDJ might, as they will fancy their chances with Démare - again, with Gaviria gone and maybe Viviani out the way, Démare should really be good enough for a top 3, if Ackermann is not there, there's a win possibly for the taking. With the whole team here really to ride for him (Madouas will be on his own in the mountains I think), they might try to put the hammer down early to shake out the sprinters, with this MSR-like finish he could have a big chance of victory.
But that is if they pull it back - if it's a break from the start, you'll need to be very strong and be able to sprint at the finish as well, as it's likely to be a small group finish. And there are tons of guys who fit in that bracket, it really is throw a few darts time.
And then you have another scenario in that there could be late attacks from the peloton if the break is pulled back inside the last 40kms, and even in the last 10kms, as there is that very fast and tricky 5km descent down to Pesaro. Could we see someone like Vincenzo Nibali try and pull of his trademark move? Or even Primoz Roglic who is also a very good descender? Picking other candidates to do that is almost impossible too, it could come down to luck and timing. But they will find it very hard to hold off a charging peloton, especially in the last 2kms as it is flat - if the gap is less than 20", they probably won't make it.
So break candidates - I don't think I'll be going for the same guys who were in the final break today, don't think they'll be going again. There were a lot of guys who looked interested early on though who didn't make it, they might try again - Valerio Agnoli was in the first break today, then rolled home 17 mins down. If Bahrain get someone in the break then they don't have to chase and Nibali can hide away in case it comes back together. He has never won a pro race though at 34 years old, hard to put much trust in him.
Sacha Modolo got in the early break, he could try again, it might be his only way of winning a stage, Tosh Van Der Sande also got in the break, he's an interesting one in that he could win from a reduced sprint, but also, if it gets really tough in the run-in, he might feature in the sprint. At 80/1, he's one I'm having a dabble on. Jan Bakelants and Florian Senechal are two more who could go and looked interested today too, Bakelants is one who can go in the break, but also try a late attack on the run to the finish.
Hard to pick anyone else with confidence, the way the books are going though, it looks like most are swinging towards it being a sprint finish - all the sprinters are being backed, with Ackermann now in to 9/4 from 11/4, Viviani in to 10/3 from 5/1, Ewan 9/2 from 5/1 and Démare in to 13/2 from 8/1. I think it will be very hard to win from a late attack as there is going to be a headwind for most of the last 10kms or so as they head towards the finish. The wind will also be in their faces as they turn on to the Viale Trieste by the seafront, but the wind shouldn't really affect the sprint.
I think it's still worth a shot on Van der Sande at that price, but I think tomorrow could be a day that Lotto look to blow the race to bits to get Ewan to the last kilometre with a great chance of a win, going against the grain a little here it seems, but I'm not sure all the sprinters will be there.. at 5/1 I think he's a bet to nothing, he should be top 3 and get us at least our stake back. I also like Jan Bakelants as a long shot at 50/1..
Recommendations:
1pt e/w on Caleb Ewan at 5/1 with Betway
0.25pts e/w on Tosh Van der Sande at 80/1
0.25pts e/w on Jan Bakelants at 50/1
Matchbets
Moschetti to beat Marezcko and Ackermann to beat Viviani - 3pts at evens