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Published on Tuesday, 21 May 2019 00:28

Giro d'Italia St 13

Pinerolo - Ceresole Reale

Friday 24th May, 188kms 

Finally a mountain summit.. It's only taken 13 stages, but we finally get a summit finish and should see another test of the GC men on the road proper. This is a stunning-looking finish, it will make for spectacular viewing!

It's a proper mountain stage with two big climbs in the middle of the course, and a finish that tops out at 2,247m in altitude.  It could be another day for the breakaway, and no doubt we'll get a lot of riders trying to get away early on in this stage, knowing that the break might have a good chance of making it all the way.

We might have to wait until about 40kms in though to see the first serious break go as they tackle the first climb. But I've a feeling today will be a GC day, and that the GC teams will fancy hammering it up that final climb in order to test out their rivals. With the tough last 6kms or so of the climb, and bonus seconds waiting at the top, I think we'll see a big GC showdown at the finish. 

Stage 12 Review

Wow... we waited almost two weeks for the race to come alive, not a lot of people expected today's stage to be important to the GC, but man, oh man what a stage we were treated to today. It started in the best possible manner for us with Eddie Dunbar, Thomas de Gendt and Gavazzi in the break of the day. As UAE sat at the front and soft-pedalled, the lead ballooned out to 5 minutes, 6 minutes, 7 minutes and eventaully to almost 15 minutes.

The reason UAE were soft-pedalling? Well, they had Jan Polanc in the break too, and he was suddenly the virtual Maglia Rosa, and by a long margin. They rolled along until they hit the Mentoso and the break suddenly was blown to pieces. Even Thomas de Gendt was dropped, maybe realising he would be outsprinted anyway by the better sprinters in the group for the big points he decided to save his legs for another day.. Or he just didn't have the legs. 

Suddenly the break was down to 5, with Dunbar, Brambilla, Caruso, Capecchi and Polanc and Cesari Benedetti yo-yoing back and forth between being with them and being dropped. As they entered the final climb, Dunbar found himself stuck at the back, badly positioned, behind some tired/slow guys. Brambilla attacked and Capecchi followed, but Dunbar came storming up the hill after them and rejoined them on the descent with 1400m to go. It looked to be between the three of them, but suddely, Caruso and Benedetti caught them with 500m to go.

Brambilla led out the sprint, but died and fell away to 4th, Benedetti came through the middle of the road to win from Caruso, with Dunbar in 3rd. So close to a 50/1 winner, yet no cigar. Another place, feels like I've been 2nd or 3rd almost every day, but we finished slightly ahead thanks to the each-way on him. Don't think anyone had the first two, so we did pretty well to come out of that stage ahead. 

Behind, there was explosions going off everywhere. Miguel Angel Lopez attacked and attacked again, the peloton blew up as Landa went after Lopez. Suddenly Roglic was completely on his own with about 7kms of the climb still to go. Simon Yates had Chaves and Hamilton with him, but didn't seem to have the legs to go after Landa/Lopez, who bridged to Sutterlin and Boaro who had been in the break. 

Conti was dropped, Jungels was dropped, Bilbao suffered a puncture and was left behind, Zakarin punctured on the run-in but managed to get back in. Then in the frantic finale, Mollema got dropped but got back on, but Hugh Carthy, Davide Formolo and Tao Geoghegan Hart struggled and lost time. Roglic may have been isolated and left without team-mates, but he kept calm and cajoled the others in to working, refusing to be leant upon. 

Majka and Nibalil looked good today too, I think Roglic has a real fight on his hands now as Lopez, Nibali, Majka and Landa look up for it and Yates kept his powder dry today (or he just wasn't feeling as good as some of the others). It would be really worrying for Roglic though to have been isolated so early, if we go in to some of the big mountain stages with tough early climbs, he's going to be under attack early on in an effort to isolate him. It got me worried so much for him that I think he's a decent lay at odds-on on Betfair, I've laid him at 1.9, but I'd take up to evens. 

Nibali is looking good as I said, I think he and Lopez are his biggest dangers now going forward. 

The Route

"This high mountain stage features 3 harsh categorised summits: Colle del Lys first (along the Val Susa side), then the Pian del Lupo (Santa Elisabetta) climb just above Cuorgné/Castellamonte, and the final Colle del Nivolet climb, leading all the way to Lago Serrù. The route takes the renewed “old road”, with steep gradients topping out at 14/15%."

35kms of a bumpy start, then they suddenly hit the Colle del Lys after 35kms. This is a proper climb, 15kms long at 6.4%, with the last 2.4kms averaging a tough 9.3%. It's twisty on the way up and it's twisty on the way down too, with the descent lasting a massive 50kms. With 100kms gone, they start climbing gently again, and 10kms later they hit the foot of the second big climb of the day, the Pian Del Lupo. 

The Lupo is another beast, shorter at 9.4kms, but much steeper at 8.7% average. From kilometre 2.5 to 5 of the climb though it averages a much harder 11.2%, and we could see some real pressure put on here by the domestiques of the GC men in an effort to shed most of the peloton. Another 17km descent takes them to the foot of the final climb to Lago Serru, and this is one hell of an end to a very tough stage. 

The climb starts immediately after they hit the bottom of the Lupo, and goes on for 44kms in total, including the false flat of 5kms about half way up, so all in all, they are climbing for some 39kms, one of the longest climbs in any Grand Tour. The categorised part of the climb only starts at Noasca with 20.3kms to go, but they will already have climbed almost 25kms at an average of around 2.4%, getting steeper as the climb goes on. 

The categorised part is 20.3kms at an average of 5.9%, but it can be split up in to three sections. There's the first steep part which is about 8kms in length, and has a 3km section in the middle which averages 8.7%. Then it eases off quite a lot, and more or less flattens out for 5kms, before kicking up again for the last 6kms which average 8.7%, with plenty of sections over 10% and an 11.2% section with about 1200m to go for 1km. The last 200m flattens out to 3.7% for the run to the line. 

Contenders and Favourites

It could be very close tomorrow between the break making it or this becoming a GC day. I think I just about shade the GC men fighting out this one, I think the break will not be given the room they were given today, UAE, Astana, M-S and Movistar will see to that I think. 

I will start by going straight to it, I think Miguel Angel Lopez wins tomorrow - he was very strong today, he is clearly desperate to make back time he has lost and he will love this finish. I can see him attacking with 4-5kms to go and not many being able to go with him. And if it comes down to a small group of favourites sprinting it out for the win, he'd be one of my favourites to take it. 

SImon Yates had good support today, Esteban Chaves and Lucas Hamilton did a great job for him. But he himself didn't seem to have to legs to be able to go after Landa and Lopez, or maybe he's just remembering what happened last year and is playing the long game. He can't keep waiting though, he still has nearly 4 minutes to make up on Roglic and over 2 minutes on Nibali. 

Who knows, maybe he has his eye on this one tomorrow, a stage that does look pretty suited to him, especially if Chaves and Hamilton blow things apart on the final climb. But interestingly, it is Chaves that is being backed for it, he was cut from 33/1 to 18/1 in minutes, but is back out to 20/1 now. It probably only took a few bets as they established the market, but it's interesting that he is being backed.

Mitchelton Scott have reconned every single climb in this Giro according to Matty White, maybe it is that Yates isn't 100% and Chaves might be given the green light to attack tomorrow. Either he can get away as all the others let him go and watch Yates, or make the others work hard to bring him back and Yates counters.Yates has drifted from 11/2 to 7/1 though, so looks like he's friendless at the moment. 

Nibali might throw in a few attacks, if he's anything like when he was at the Tour of the Alps, but will he be able to get away? Well he couldn't get away from Sivakov and TGH there, doubt he'll get away from these guys. Mikel Landa is another who could go well here too, but I think he would prefer a tougher stage, but a slightly easier last section to the climb. He has drifted from 8/1 to 11/1, so he's not taking a lot of bets either then. 

And what about Primoz Roglic? Well he opened 14/1, he's now 10/1, he's clearly fancied by some to go out there and lay down a marker tomorrow on the first summit finish. It worries me how isolated he was today so early in the climb though, I have a feeling that we could see Astana and Movistar try to rip it up the Pian Del Lupo with 60kms to go to thin out the Jumbo Visma squad and try to isolate Roglic ahead of an all-out assault on the final climb.

If Yates, Lopez, Landa, Nibali etc all start attacking him, will he be able to cover all the attacks? It might be that he goes in to defensive mode and just get to the finish with, or as close to the winner as he can. I think he's a no-bet then based on that. 

Movistar have a few cards to play too of course, with Richard Carapaz one that I like for this too. He was going well today but sat in with the leaders as Landa was up the road, he got an easy, armchair ride compared to some of the other guys. If they are watching Landa, Carapaz could do what he did on stage 4 and skip away from them at the end. He is effectively 5th on the GC proper though, so will be watched closely by Nibali, Mollema and Majka, but he does seem to be one of the quickest at finishing off a stage. 14/1 each way will do for me. 

Bauke Mollema looked good for a lot of the final climb today, but then seemed to yo-yo a little towards the top. He is looking one of the stronger guys though, so he'll be there or thereabouts. He doesn't have a great finishing kick though, so he might have to settle for 5th to 10th or so. Rafal Majka is very similar. 

Davide Formolo struggled today and wasn't able to go with the top guys, will we see him bounce back tomorrow? I don't want to pay to find out at just 16/1. Alexis Vuillermoz is close to the top of the betting too at 40/1, he tried to get in the break today, came to within 30" of joining it, but had to give up and go back to the peloton as he just couldn't bridge. Will he try again tomorrow? Or will he wait and stay with the GC guys and try to get away maybe on the final climb when there's a bit of a lull somewhere along the way. I'll wait for another day with him I think.

Astana might start throwing grenades earlier on in the climb to soften the other guys up, Pelle Bilbao was unfortunate today, puncturing just as things were kicking off on the Mentoso, Ion Izagirre finished with him over 10 minutes behind the Roglic group. Maybe they are saving themselves for when Lopez needs them, but maybe they'll have a dig tomorrow... 

I'm also going to rule out everyone that was in the break today, that was a tough stage and they will be taking a break tomorrow I think. Ciccone is too short, Masnada, Cattaneo or Nieve might have a go in the break, but I don't think the break will win tomorrow. Ivan Sosa and Pavel Sivakov will be there or thereabouts for Ineos too, but I can't see them winning tomorrow based on what we've seen so far. 

Lopez looked good today, I think he'll really fancy trying to claw back more time tomorrow, and Carapaz might be another who will manage to get away in the last part to fight it out for the win. Chaves could also be involved if Yates isn't up for it, but I think we'll wait and see how they play it tomorrow before thinking about whether to back Chaves another time. 

Recommendations:

1pt win on MA Lopez at 5/1 with Betway

0.75pts e/w on Richard Carapaz at 14/1with Bet365

Matchbets:

Sosa to beat Ciccone and Chaves to beat Pozzovivo - 2pts at 6/5

Add Majka to beat Zakarin to make it a treble at 15/8

Majka to beat Zakarin and Sivakov to beat Kangert - 2pts at evens.