- Details
- Published on Friday, 28 July 2017 20:24
Vuelta Stage 3
Prades Conflent Canigó to Andorra la Vella
Mon 21st August, 158.5kms
It's only stage three, but we are already in the mountains, with a trip that takes them out of France and in to Spain and Andorra. It's a relatively short stage at just 158kms, but they take in two Cat 1s and a Cat 2 climb along the way.
It's quite early in the race to be tackling tough Cat 1 climbs, but it's not unusual for the Vuelta, we saw last year that stage 3 finished on the Miraodor de Izaro and it caused some time gaps for the GC men, over just 1.8kms of a finishing hill. Alexander Geniez just held on from the break of the day to win by just 21" from the chasing pack, but behind Quintana lost 6" to Froome, with Contador lost 28".
This is a different kind of stage though, the final climb comes 7kms from the finish and it's only a Cat 2, although there won't be too many sprinters or non-climber types left by that point as they will have gone over the 13.5km long Cat 1 Coll de la Rabassa just 20kms before that. It looks like a great day for the breakaway to maybe make it all the way, like Geniez did last year, but with it so tight still at the top and several riders in with a chance of stealing the jersey off of Lampaert the GC teams might look to pull it all back together again.
Stage 2 Review
Not a lot to say about today's stage, it was more boring than any of the most boring stages of the TDF.. Rather incredibly there was no break went away at all, and there wasn't even a proper attempt at breaking the race up with echelons during the potentially worst part of the stage with 100kms to go. It was like as if the teams just couldn't be bothered. Finally with kms to go we saw a bit of action as they entered the last 5kms when QuickStep started hammering it at the front. They suddenly caused splits to happen all over the field and the race was in total disarray.
They were brilliant the way they set up Lampaert though, stringing it out in to a roundabout and then blocking as he accelerated away. It was a superb win for QuickStep who take the first road stage for the second year in a row. They actually landed the 1-2 with Trentin in 2nd place, a good start for the sprints competition, he'd have won the sprint only for Lampaert having stolen a march. Lampaert takes the race leader's jersey too. Adam Blythe landed a stunning podium for AquaBlue in their first ever Grand Tour, they have really made a cracking start to the race.
There was a big gamble on Edward Theuns in the morning as word seemed to filter through that Dege wasn't feeling so good yesterday and it would be Theuns who got the nod to sprint. In the end that's how it turned out with Dege way down the field, but Theuns let his each-way backers down by just missing out, finishing in 4th place.
With 100m to go I thought we had got our money back on Modolo, but he faded in the last 50m or so and was passed, finishing in 5th. Our 50/1 shot Schwarzmann was very close too, just one place worse off in 6th place. The double won, but the other bets went down for a small 3.9pt loss. Let's hope to get back on track tomorrow.
The Route
The stage starts out from Prades in France and heading south-west they start climbing right from the flag-drop. Although the official climb of the Cat 1 Col de la Perche is given as 19.5kms at 4.7%, they are actually climbing for some 31kms by the time they reach the summit. The descent off the top of the Perche goes on for some 68kms, taking them in to Spain after 52kms at Bourg-Madam.
After 99kms they start climbing again, and after 110kms they enter Andorra and start climbing the Coll de La Rabassa, another Cat 1 climb which is shorter at 13.5kms, but steeper at 6.8% average, with parts hitting 10% and a short section of 15% lower down. It's a very twisty climb with lots of twists and hairpins and they crest it with 31kms left, of which the next 20kms are spent descending down a very twisting and dangerous descent before the final test of the Alto de La Comella.
The Comella is only a Cat 2, but it will be explosive, as it's 4.3kms at 8.3% average and there's only 7.1kms left to the finish from the top, of which only the last 1.5kms are flat as they enter Andorra La Vella. Whoever is in front coming off the final climb will need to be on their toes though as it is quite a tricky finish. The first few kms at the top of the descent is very twisty witha series of hairpins, then it straightens out a little before some more tight bends between 4.5 and 3kms to go, but as they enter the town in the last 2.5kms the road straightens out.
They have to negotiate 3 roundabouts in a row in about 600m before turning right over the bridge with about 700m to go, then right again with about 400m to go and on to the finishing straight. If it is a small bunch sprint that fights out the finish then it is a nice long finishing straight to line it up for their best man.
Route Map
Profile
Col de La Perche
Coll de La Rabassa
Last kms
Contenders and Favourites
The break has to have a big chance of going all the way today, I give it about a 30-40% chance of making it, It was probably only about a 1-2% chance today.
I'll take a quick whizz through some break candidates, starting with guys who seemed to take it easy today and maybe deliberately lost time in order to be let get up the road tomorrow. We have to start with Thomas de Gendt, escape artist supreme, lover of a break in the Vuelta like this and he came home over 7 minutes down today. He finished the Tour well, getting in the winning break of stage 19, but let EBH go and could only finish 5th. He's rested since then, not doing any races in between and could have good legs here to go straight away.
Alexandre Geniez also finished in the same group, he looked to me to not be too bothered early on in the stage when he was fetching bottles, he seemed indifferent to whether he lost contact or not, that might be because he really had tomorrow's stage in mind and just wanted to lose time. Well, he succeeded and I fancy him to try to get in the break tomorrow.
Another rider I quite liked the look of was Koen Bouwman of LottoNL Jumbo - he too finished in the same group and he's a very promising young rider who took a stage of the Dauphiné a few months back and took the KOM jersey too. He could well try his luck tomorrow when his legs are still pretty fresh.
It wil be hard for anyone above that group of riders to be left go, as the next group above them are only around 3-4 mins behind and may not be given too much rope. Darwin Atapuma also lost time in the first two days, but I think he might keep his powder dry until the proper mountains later on.
So we come back to the GC types who make up the main hopes according to the bookies - Julian Alaphilippe opened at 8/1 and is in to 11/2 in a matter of an hour or so, so he's clearly fancied for the stage. He has looked strong enough so far and he helped QS to 2nd in the TT and he finished 18th today after splitting the race to pieces after they came out of that roundabout with 2.5kms to go. The finish suits him well too for a late attack or even to win from a reduced sprint of the main climber types. If he wins, he probably takes the leader's jersey as well and QS will be keen to keep it in the team.
Wilko Kelderman is 2nd favourite and looks very short to me at just 14/1, I'm not quite sure why he is 2nd favourite or why he is that price to be honest. He has not yet won a race as a senior pro, the last races he won were in the U23 categories back in 2010/11. Yes, he's won the Tour of Denmark in 2013, but that was thanks to winning the TT, but he seems to find 2 or 3 too good for him every time, like he did in the Tour de Pologne just a few weeks back. I can't trust him at that price.
Omar Fraile is 14/1 and that's more because he may go in the break to take those early KOM points like I said he would in my KOM previews, but I'm not sure that he'll make it all the way, and if he's with some company he might be outsprinted anyway. Bob Jungels is 20/1, but with QS with Alaphilippe in 7th, he may well be asked to work for him instead of trying his own luck this time. But if he's there at the front as they go over the top of the final climb he may well try a flyer to string things out and give Ala an armchair ride to the finish, and he could just time trial his way to victory.
Vincenzo Nibali is just 20/1 and that's because he is expected to do his 'trademark' attack on the descent in to town, but I can't see him getting away with it. Rui Costa could be an interesting one as he is good at late attacks on hills like this and also is a very fast descender and can sprint a bit.. but 20/1 again? Too short considering how low his strike rate is lately.
Giovanni Visconti is another who lost some time already, he's 2'33" down, so he might get a tiny bit of freedom a the finish if he were to try a late attack, on a finish that suits him pretty well. He's 22/1, which isn't a great price, you might get better later on with someone else when they price it up, but he might give us two shots of a win, from the break of the day, or a win from the GC group.
Nicholas Roche might like this finish too, he is a possible attack of the day man too if he wants to hold on to that KOM jersey.. And that will be interesting.. I don't think he came here with it as a target, it fell on to his shoulders after the TTT. But why not? He could match the likes of Fraile on some break stages and he can be pretty consistent - he will be better remembered as the KOM winner than someone who finished 14th or so on the GC. But if not, and he decides to ride for GC, if he can attack near the finish and get some time, he could take the race leader's jersey again. Even finishing with the leaders could give him the jersey if those above him lose time.
Romain Bardet could attack on the final climb, or on the descent, but like Nibali, I don't think he'll be given the freedom to do that, and if he's with anyone with any sort of sprint on them he won't win.. I think the likes of Poels, Froome, Barguil, Chaves and the Yates bros will try some digs on the final climb but they'll all mark each other out of it and it will come back together.
It really is a conundrum this stage.. do we get attackers try to get away on the Rabassa? Do we get attackers try to get away on the final hill? Do we get attackers try to get away on the descent? Or do they all shadow box and just try to wait for some sort of bunch finish.. Well I think it's going to be wild, I think that there will be big pressure put on on the Rabassa, to try to shake off the puncheur types who could hold on on the final hill..
The peloton will be stripped down to maybe 50 guys and then there will be attacks galore on the final climb. It is just 4.3kms, but averages 8.3%, that will strip it down further again when the big guns go at each other, so we could have a very select group of maybe 20-30 guys go to the finish together.. And of that lot, I'd like to be on Visconti, Costa and a dark horse in Patrick Konrad of Bora at 66/1, he's going well and has a decent kick on him in a reduced group sprint finish like this..
Recommendations:
0.5pts each-way on Rui Costa at 20/1 with 365
0.5pts each-way in Giovanni Visconti at 22/1 with 365
0.25pts each-way on Patrick Konrad at 66/1 with 365
0.2pts each-way on Alexandre Geniez at 40/1 with 365
0.2pts each-way on Thomas de Gendt at 22/1 with 365
Matchbets:
Jungels to beat Dennis and Alaph to beat LL Sanchez - 3pts on the double at 11/10 with 365
Kruijswijk to beat TVG - 2pts at 8/11
Costa to beat Woods - 3pts at 5/6