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Published on Thursday, 29 June 2017 00:10

TDF Team Classification

Who will be the top team?

The Team Classification was a very tight competition last year, with Movistar just taking the honours, beating Sky by just 8 minutes in the end. BMC were a further 40 mins back in 3rd with AG2R the only other team within an hour of Movistar. 

This is an unusual one in that even though it’s called the ‘team’ classification, it’s only the top 3 riders on each stage’s time that is calculated for the purposes of the Team Classification. This means that you will see riders for teams like AG2R who are maybe 2-3 minutes behind the winners on a mountain stage fighting all the way to the line for what appears to be a lost cause with the stage already long done. Teams like AG2R, who take these competitions seriously, or Movistar, BMC, Sky and Astana who like to have the bragging rights at the end of the race of being the ‘best team’.

Luck can play a big part in this competition too, as a puncture, crash or mechanical for a team leader can see many members of the squad hold back to look after him and the whole squad can lose a lot of time as a result. Also, if a team loses a leader, like Sky did with Landa and Thomas at the Giro, you can almost forget about  them winning, as the focus and drive of the team evaporates. Movistar are going for three wins in a row in this competition, and they have the added motivation this year of the team making a big deal of the fact they are in their 35th running of the Tour de France. 

Movistar - 6/4 

Going for the hat-trick, Movistar have been the dominant team in the Tour for the last two years, winning by a close margin last year, but quite a large one in 2015 (57 minutes). Movistar never need motivation for this competition, or indeed the TDF, I think they see it as a very personal battle with Team Sky and make it a target for the Team. Also, this year they seem to be making a big deal on social media about the fact that they are in their 35th Tour de France as a team, I'm sure they'd like to win it in their anniversary year, we'll hear all about it. 

Nairo and Valverde will be right up there on all the key stages, both could take breakaway stage wins to add to the time gaps. They are backed up by a very powerful team as usual, with Jonathan Castroviejo and Jasha Sutterlin who will go well on the hillier stages, but also in the TTs, Imanol Erviti, Jesus Herrada and Andrey Amador will also be right up there on most stages and Daniele Bennati could go in breaks.. Then we have Carlos Betancur, who has reappeared this season looking slimmer than I think I have ever seen him, whatever 'programme' he was put on in Columbia is clearly working. And he seems to have form and good legs too based on how he toyed with all the opposition in the Hammer Series hilly stage and danced away from them all. He could well take off one day in a break and stay away, taking more time. I think they look pretty solid favourites, let's have a look at the opposition though now. 

Team Sky – 11/4

A team with the GC favourite and likely top 6 finisher on all the mountain stages, including possibly winning a number of them.. A team with Thomas, Henao, Landa, Nieve and Kwiatkowski – all of whom should go well on all the key stages.

On paper they look like a solid challenge to Movistar's hat-trick, Froome should go well, Thomas should go well, and Landa, well he could take off and win a few stages like he did in the Giro. Kwiatkowski could be on the attack on some of the punchier stages and could stay away, gaining time, and Nieve and Henao, if left off the leash, could go well too. Even if they work for Froome, some of them like Thomas, Henao and Landa are capable of finishing high up on the stage results.

The concerns with Sky would be some of them crashing out or getting sick, which always seems to be an issue with Sky, or that they burn matches too early on climbs chasing down attacks by all of Froome’s rivals. Or that the likes of Kwiatkowski or Henao drive hard in the valleys and early parts of climbs and just come to a standstill and lose a stack of time. That was one of the reasons why, even though Froome won the race last year, Sky lost, they were actually ahead of Movistar earlier in the race. It was the same two years ago when they lost by nearly an hour to Movistar. In fact, over the last nine years, the GC winner's team has never won the team classification, and I'm going to swerve Sky at these prices, seeing as Froome is favourite.  

AG2R – 11/2

A team that finished 4th in this last year, 8 minutes behind BMC, but nearly an hour behind Movistar, but they come here with a good chance of a top result in the team classification. Romain Bardet will lead the line and will feature in the top 10 in most of the hilly stages, and is also capable of a breakaway solo win that can add to their advantage. Backing him up are Mathias Frank and Pierre Latour who will also be pretty consistent in the hilly stages, should be in the top 20 most days. Both are also capable of getting in breaks that could take time.

Oliver Naesen, Alexis Vuillermoz, Cyril Gaultier and Jan Bakelants are all capable of getting in winning breaks too. I don't think they have the strength in depth of the top two teams above though, if Latour or Frank have a bad day they will be relying on the likes of Gautier and Domont to keep riding even after working hard for the team. I think they are capable of a top 3 though, but as I mention below top 3 might not be good enough to get us a return.

Astana – 10/1

A team with two fancied riders who are sure to give it a real good go here.. Fabio Aru and Jacob Fuglsang are fancied by quite a lot to cause mayhem in this Tour, Aru looks to be full of fire and spark and looks to be on a mission for the heartbreak of missing out on the Giro in Sardinia and also the memory of Scarponi is driving him on, he wore Scarponi's jersey on the podium in the Italian Nationals last week, and was pretty emotional. He will go on the attack, you can be sure of that, and he will be there or thereabouts on a lot of the other stages.

While the GC men are watching Aru though and chasing him down, Jacob Fuglsang can sit in and wait for his opportunity to attack, they can't chase everything down, one of them might get away. Beyond those two they have a lot of strong guys, but no real standout climbers to match the likes of Sky and Movistar and that's where they might struggle, the third rider home.. Also, there are no guarantees that Aru will be 100%, what with his knee injury and missing so much of the season, he might struggle later in the race when it really matters most. 

And honestly, that's about it - BMC, Orica might do ok, but I can't seen them beating the four teams above. BMC have Richie and Roche, but after that it isn't a great team, they might struggle to have a third rider consistently finish in the top 10.

Now the problem with this market is the way the bookies have priced it up - a lot are going win only, so no way to back AG2R or Astana each-way. Some are just going e/w for the first two so that's not much better. But I think Movistar look a pretty solid bet, Quintana should be top 3 or 4, Valverde might not be far behind, and they have a strong team behind that who will consistently place high up. Sky might be in danger of doing too much early on and dropping away.. So I'm sticking with Movistar to make it a hat-trick, we backed them at 7/2 last year, they're only 6/4 this year but I'm on.  

Recommendation:

2pts win on Movistar at 6/4 with Various