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- Published on Monday, 17 July 2017 14:32
TDF 2017 Stage 16
Le Puy-en-Velay to Romans-sur-Isère
Tues 18th July, 165kms
A day that could well be suitable for the breakaway men on a rolling course that will be difficult to organise a chase on, but with 56kms of flat roads on the run to the finish, the sprinter's teams might still have their day.
The first 70kms of this stage are lumpy enough, with the road rising from the flag-drop for the first 20kms. It will see a break go again, but will they be given enough space to hang on all the way to Romans Sur Isere, or will the peloton keep them in check in order to get their sprinters involved in the finish? Can the sprinters be disposed of first thing in this race, never to get back on again? I'm sure some teams like Sunweb and Dim Data will be trying their damndest to make sure that happens..
Stage 15 Review
So promising for most of the stage, with no less than four of my picks in the break of 28, yet they end up 5th, 7th, 10th and 21st. A very disappointing outcome to a very promising situation. I could not have seen Bauke Mollema do that today, nor could many others it seems as he was over 100s on Betfair. But it was similar to the effort he put in in the Clasica San Sebastian last year when we were on him at 33/1, attacking on the descent off the final climb and soloing to the finish. It was a fantastic win for him and Trek, but others need to take a long hard look at themselves that they let him get away.
BMC had four in the break and totally ballsed it up, they may have been riding to lift Caruso in to the top 10 (and it worked thanks to Quintana's ineptitude today) but who cares that he finishes 10th or 9th in the GC, they had a stage up for grabs today with four men to help pull it off and they just weren't up to it. Roche sprinted to 6th place, but the pace he finished at, he could well have been sprinting for the stage win. Barguil was superb again, but worked so hard all day to take the KOM points that he had nothing left for the sprint. Roglic backers were left fuming after he was outsprinted for a place, Benoot and Ulissi took the other two places. They were two guys I picked out as well, but I can't back every rider!
But Roglic backers won't be as annoyed as Cummings backers, the 9/1 favourite didn't even get in the break and finished 20th from last - good work if you backed him today.. .But it does look like our Barguil for KOM bet is more or less home, I'm trying to lay out at 1.03 on Betfair just in case, hopefully someone will take it.
And what a dramatic day we had behind again, with AG2R turning the screw in a very impressive manner, Froome getting a mechanical and it all getting a bit panicky. Froome had Nieve and Landa to thank after the stage for saving his race, but why didn't his rivals Aru and Bardet attack him as he got back in? He was on the limit and it was a perfect time to leave him behind.. Very strange. It was incredible from Froome who put out 6.4W/kg for 22 mins while trying to get back on.. While he was dangling his price jumped out to evens again from 1/3 but has now settled back in to around 2/5.
And what about Dan Martin - another brave, ballsy and very clever move to attack the GC group in the last 7kms, taking 13" off them and moving above Landa in to 5th place. He is now just 1'12" behind Froome, he lost 1'15" in the crash.. His race isn't over yet though, his back seems to be healing up well and he seems to be getting stronger and stronger.
So, incredibly, we go in to the third week with four riders within 29" of the lead and 2 more within 1'17" of Froome. The route may have appeared to be boring for the majority of it, but the riders have made the race and it's been pretty interesting and exciting so far. But what's going to happen in this final week? Can AG2R and Bardet continue to put the pressure on Sky and Froome? He looks about the best placed to do so, but he will need a minute lead on Froome going in to the penultimate stage's TT. Is Aru starting to struggle, or will he get a miraculous Nibali-like resurgence in the final few days and take a minute out of Froome on Izoard?
Can Uran continue to ride as brilliantly as he has, and possibly try a few attacks himself to get ahead of Froome? And Can Dan Martin continue to be aggressive and try to climb on to the podium? I hope so. As for Froome? He seemed to be struggling today, he was struggling to close the gaps, but the line out of Sky tonight is that Froome had suffered a broken spoke and his wheel was rubbing. But when he did get motoring again it was pretty impressive from him to get back on, and then lead out the sprint at the finish. And Landa isn't out of this either.. he is another card they can play if Froome isn't feeling great in the final week, Froome has a tendency to fade a little as they head towards Paris, and the others need to keep that in mind and keep the pressure on.
The Route
A fairly non-descript stage that cuts east through the departments of the Haute-Loire, Ardeche and Dróme as they head east from Le Puy en Velay to Romans Sur Isere. They start climbing straight from the flag drop, climbing for 20kms at an average gradient of 2.9%, of which 4.5kms are the Cat 3 climb of the Cote de Boussoulet (6.3% avg).
They then roll along a plateau for 50kms, passing over the little Cat 4 Col du Rouvery (2.8kms at 5.6%). A 40km rolling descent takes them down to Tournon sur Rhone, and from there it's more or less flat all the way as they zig-zag their way to the finish in Romans Sur Isere along the Rhone and Isere valleys.
The finish could be interesting though if it's a bunch finish, they descend down in to the town in the last 4kms, passing through three roundabouts in quick succession just inside 4kms to go, then head down to the bridge that crosses the Isere. As they reach the other side of the bridge they pass the 1km to go mark, go through two roundabouts and start climbing to the finish line. It's only a gentle gradient, at 1.8% average, but it could suit some sprinters more than others, Matthews and EBH for example should be right at the front. (right)
They have to negotiate a tricky roundabout with just 300m to go though, it's quite narrow and tight and the exit is very narrow on to the 300m finishing straight. You will need to be in the first 10 going through here to have any chance of winning.. It also pinches up with only about 200m to go as they have to pass the edge of a roundabout, which narrows the road.
Weather watch - it's going to be hot - in the low 30s, but what we have to watch out for is the wind - the wind whipping up the Rhone valley is forecast to hit 18-19mph, the strongest winds we have seen in the race. It means it will be a tail/crosswind for most of the day until about 35kms to go, just after the intermediate sprint, when they turn and start heading south when it will become a headwind. But then when they turn back north with 10kms to go it will become a tail-wind and it might just help the break stay away to the finish. It could also mean that the splits that might be forced in the early part of the race will not be closed thanks to the winds.
Route Map
Profile
Last Kilometres
Finish Map
Contenders and Favourites
This is one of those stages that could be a close run thing between a break and the peloton. The break has a nice start to the stage to get established early and the earlier they get established, the bigger the gap they can possibly build. With it rolling along for 50kms until Lalouvesc, then descending for the next 40kms, they will be able to keep a good tempo, and then it's a team time trial for the next 60kms to Roman Sur Isere. As mentioned above, this stage could be interesting because of the winds that could whip up. We could see some teams like Quickstep or Sunweb look to force echelons and splits in the last 30kms as they change direction in to the headwind, but also, if they can get rid of Kittel and Greipel early on and the peloton keeps the pressure up, they may never get back on again, or if they do, could be shattered from the effort.
I think that this has to be a stage that Michael Matthews has his eye on - there are two ways he could win it - he could get in a strong break with a few team-mates and go all the way to the finish, where he'll win the sprint. Or they push hard in the opening 20kms, get rid of Kittel and keep going to make sure he doesn't get back in. If they go hard enough they could shake off Greipel and Groenewegen too, but the likes of Bouhanni and Degenkolb might just hang in there, they aren't bad at getting over little lumps like this. Quick-Step will be looking after Dan Martin, so they might not put too many guys looking after Kittel, he could be on his own.
It's the day after the rest day though and with the nasty stage over the Croix de Fer and Colombier the next day we might see limited chasing from the GC teams should a break go. It really is a very hard stage to call for all of these reasons - it's post rest day, it's the day before the tough stage to Serre-Chevalier, it's a possible break stage, it's a possible sprint stage.. If it's a break, we'll get some of the stronger guys again who are coming to the fore as the race goes on, and it could even be a stage for the likes of Steve Cummings finally, who is a more realistic price for this one at 33/1 rather than the 9/1 he was for a mountain stage Sunday.. And it's Mandela Day.....
The bookies have priced it up though like it is going to be a sprinters stage, which I sort of agree with, but they're not too convinced about Marcel Kittel, he's 2/1 as opposed to 4/6 which he was for the last sprint stage. And that's because he's not certain to get over that climb at the start as I said. And the 50kms between kilometre 20 and kilometre 70 are pretty lumpy too, so if Kittel is struggling they have plenty of opportunities to see him off. The thing is, if he does manage to hang in there he could still be backable at around evens maybe, so if you want to back him, and you think he's going to struggle, it might be worth waiting for in-play. And there's also that uphill finish too, which might inconvenience him a little bit if he does make it to the finish. There are too many if, buts and maybes for me to back him.
Going on form and team strength then you'd have to fancy Michael Matthews as I've said already - Sunweb are going to push it hard at the start I think and should get help from the likes of LottoSoudal and Dimension Data. Matthews is absolutely flying at the moment and should have no problems on the climbs in the first 70kms, and the uphill finish will suit him too. It all depends on how many other sprinters they have disposed of though, he should beat most of them, but maybe not all of them.
The other guy to watch out for though is Dylan Groenewegen, he's been getting closer and closer and now has 3rd and a 2nd in his last two sprints, hes sure to be pretty close again.. that is, if he can hang in there too on the climbs, he's been getting dropped pretty early in some of the hilly stages, as early as Kittel on most of them. But if he can hang in there, he could be a big danger in the sprint too.
André Greipel has been a big disappointment so far in this race, and has cost us, but he has to come good at some point right? He always wins a stage in the Grand Tours he enters, he's running out of chances to do it in this one. Lotto-Soudal have come alive in the hilly stages with De Gendt, Gallopin and Benoot have been active, but they could also be involved in tomorrow's stage too if a break goes, it looks like the kind of day for Benoot. But if it does come to a sprint, and Kittel is out of it, Greipel might have a chance.. But I can't trust him at just 12/1 with 365, the 20/1 with PP is a little bit more interesting.
As I mentioned earlier, Dimension Data are sure to take an interest in making this stage hard to get rid of Kittel, they have Edvald Boasson Hagen with a good shot at a result here. He has been in sparkling form, pulling off another power-packed finish on the stage to Rodez, taking 3rd behind Van Avermaet, his third top three in the race so far. He has been outsprinting some of the sprinters on the flat, and the uphill pull to the line will be in his favour, if he can get in the right position at the front coming over the bridge, DDD can put them under pressure up the hill and he could be in pole position coming through that last roundabout on to the 300m finishing straight. He needs to time it right though, as he doesn't have a long sprint on him and could be passed by those coming from behind. And it's Mandela Day too on Tuesday, a special day for the African Team, a day on which Steve Cummings has won previously - they will be fired up tomorrow.
John Degenkolb and Alexander Kristoff are very similar in that they both have incredible careers behind them, but it just hasn't clicked for them in this year's Tour. John Degenkolb has been coming close, I thought we were in with a chance of an e/w payout on stage 14 to Rodez as he was on the wheels of Van Avermaet and Gilbert, but he blew up spectacularly and disappeared out of it, finishing way down in 36th in the end! He has finished 5th and 2nd in stages though, so he was making progress as I said in my preview of stage 14, and the 20/1 with PP looks tempting.
Alexander Kristoff has a 2nd, two 4ths and a 5th so far in this Tour, but has never looked like winning really and his 2nd came on the stage with Mark Cavendish's crash, he would not have been 2nd had Kittel, Cav and Sagan stayed in the sprint. So 4th to 5th is really his level and the fact he was way down in 42nd in Rodez has put me off him a little for this too, I'd have wanted him to be closer I think, as hard as that finish was.
And if it is the kind of stage which is hard from the gun, we may see the likes of Greg Van Avermaet in with a shout - he can either get in a strong break and stay away, or he can be one of those in the first 10 coming up that hill to the finish, putting him in with a chance of being in the right place when the sprint opens up. He can't be happy that he didn't win the stage to Rodez, he might be looking for quick retribution, and BMC are getting desperate after their cock-up on Sunday.
A strong breakaway of rouleurs could also contain Oliver Naesen, this is Belgian Classics kind of territory at the start, he might fancy a go up the road. And another I just have an inkling who could be eyeing this stage up is Tony Martin - he could either go from the start in a break, or he is also a possible candidate for a late attack off the front as they approach the town, he could well get a small gap and solo to the finish. He looked strong on Sunday, but the Cat 1 killed him. He's 50/1 with PP, that's worth a small win bet.
Good luck trying to pick the break winners if you think the break will make it today, I'm going to plump for a sprint, but possibly without the best sprinter in the race, thus opening things up for others at decent prices, hopefully we'll get one or two in the places at least.
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Michael Matthews at 15/1 with Will Hill
0.3pts each-way on John Degenkolb at 20/1 with Ladbrokes
0.5pts each-way on EBH at 11/1 with Paddy Power
0.3pts win on Tony Martin at 50/1 with PP
Match-Bets
Matthews to beat Colbrelli and Bouhanni to beat McLay - 3pts at 9/10 with PP
EBH to beat Dege and Vanspeybrouck to beat Boudat - 2pts at 11/8 with PP
All four of the above in a four-fold - 1pt at 7/2