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Published on Tuesday, 02 July 2019 00:10

TDF Team Classification

Who will be the top team?

Like with Sagan for the Green and Bernal for the White, the bookies see this as a one-horse race, with Movistar the hot 8/13 favourites to take the prize for the 4th time in five years, their run only broken by Sky in 2017. 

The main reason Movistar did so poorly in 2017 (they were only 6th, almost 2 hours behind Sky!) was because they were derailed on the very first stage with the crash and abandonment of their leader Valverde. It also didn't help that Quintana had a poor Tour finishing down in 12th, and all the rest of the team seemed to be affected by Valverde's crash too and were never at the races. 

Last year QuickStep led from the 1st stage to the 9th, but Movistar took over after the 10th stage, despite Alaphilippe winning the stage. They had a really close battle from then on with Bahrain Merida, with Nibali, Gorka Izagirre and Domenico Pozzovivo pushing them all the way, even taking over the lead after stage 16 thanks to Pozzovivo and the two Izagirre's being part of a massive break that made it all the way and finished a long way ahead of the GC men. But Movistar regained the lead the next day, thanks to Quintana's win and Landa and Valverde also finishing in the first 12, and they held it all the way to Paris, to win by 12'33" in the end from Bahrian, with Sky at 31'14". 

Movistar - 8/13

6/4 in 2017, 4/6 last year, 8/13 this year. They were backed from 11/10 to 4/6 last year as punters had faith that the Trident would do the business, and indeed they did, Landa, Valverde and Quintana did enough on a regular basis to take the prize. 

They take this competition more seriously than any other team it seems, and that has paid dividends with 4 wins in the last 5 years. They have a massively powerful squad again this year, with Quintana one of the favourites and Landa and Valverde also looking really good and capable of finishing in the top 10 or 20 of all the tough stages. But they also have Marc Soler, Emanol Erviti, Carlos Verona, Nelson Oliveira and Andrey Amador, all of who are capable of getting in good breaks that can go all the way and score well for the team. 

Quintana should go well, he needs to go well and pull off a decent result, Landa looked like he still had more in the tank at the Giro and I think he will go very well in this race again, and Valverde is looking like a skeleton he is so light, he looks like he has trained extra hard to be ready for this, and it certainly looked that way when he skipped away with LLS in the Spanish Nationals last Sunday. But if one or more of them starts to falter, their challenge could fall apart again - Quintana doesn't look the Quintana of old, Valverde will struggle on the big climbs over 2,000m and Landa could suffer from Giro fatigue.. enough to put me off backing them at that price. 

Team Ineos – 4/1

6/4 last year, 4/1 this year, even though they have the top two favourites in the betting for the race? A team with Bernal, Thomas, Poels, Kwiato and Castroviejo? They were my pick last year against Movistar, but what happened was they burned their third and 4th men out too soon on the climbs sometimes and they limped home at their own time to save their legs for the next day, whereas Movistar's guys rode their own races and consistently placed 3 men higher up than Sky. 

They will go well though this year you would have to think, they will be one of the fastest in the TTT, they will have Bernal and Thomas at the front on all the major climbs, and if Poels rode like he did at the Dauphiné he won't be far off either.. but it's likely he'll be last man on the train ready to release the two leaders, and will bury himself until 3 or 4 kilometres to go and crawl home. Or he may be called upon to chase if Fuglsang, Pinot, Yates and the rest start firing attackers off left, right and centre, and that will kill him too. 

Kwiat will do his work further down the mountains, but the rest will more than likely be awol as soon as the roads get steep. On the flip side though, Moscon, Rowe, Kwiat and Van Baarle are capable of getting in breaks and taking time and they should place three riders pretty high up in the TT too, with Thomas, Bernal, Kwiat, Castoviejo all decent TTers. But will it be enough to hold off the Movistar charge? I'm not sure. It will take one of the top 3 Movistar guys falling out of it I think. 

Astana – 14/1

Astana have been absolutely flying all season again, with wins coming from loads of different riders. Luis Leon showed in the Spanish Nationals and with his win in the 2nd stage of the TDS that he is ready and firing on all cylinders. Jakob Fuglsang is the 3rd favourite for the race and in superb form. Omar Fraile, Magnus Cort and Alexey Lutsenko are always good for a breakaway stage win and Pelle Bilbao and Gorka Izagirre will be those guys finishing in the top 20 of all the mountain stages to help the cause there.

But like Ineos, they might be required to bury themselves on the middle slopes of the final climbs and might drop away and lose a chunk of time by the finishes. Luis Leon and Lutsenko will be doing their team job on the lower slopes/earlier climbs, so they might also come home a long way down, and I fear for them that they will not have enough top placers on as consistent a basis as Movsitar to stay in contention. 

EF Education First - 14/1

Rigo Uran comes here after an interrupted season, but looked good on his return in the Route d'Occitanie, finishing on the podium. He is joined by Tejay Van Garderen, Michael Woods, Alberto Bettiol, Sebastian Langeveld, Tom Scully, Simon Clarke and Tanel Kangert and together that's a pretty solid squad. Uran, Woods and TVG will place highly consistently in the mountains and we could see Woods and TVG trying to get up the road in breaks too.

Bettiol has not shown the sort of form lately that delivered Flanders in March, but he too could be a danger in breaks if he gets a chance. Kangert and Scully will be good helpers in the mountains. They should do ok, maybe 6th to 10th in the TTT and they are not great individual TTers either. If TVG crumbles in the third week, as often happens, or Uran disappoints after missing so much racing this season, they might struggle though, and there's too much doubt there for me. 

Mitchelton Scott - 22/1

Adam and Simon Yates will be right up there on the tough mountain stages, and they both seem to have dramatically improved their TT'ing abilities this year, with Simon winning the TT in Paris Nice and Adam pulling off some decent TTs in Andalucia, Itzulia and the Dauphiné. Together with Durbridge, Haig, Hepburn, Juul-Jensen, Impey and Trentin they will have one of the fastest TTTs here and will get off to a good start. 

The whole team is working for Adam, which means Simon will be burying himself at the end of stages to keep Adam in with a chance of attacking or at least following the key moves when the likes of Bernal or Fuglsang attacks. It might mean though that instead of maybe finishing 30" or less down if he rode his own race, he might be finishing 1-2 minutes down after rolling home. 

Jack Haigue will be a huge help in the mountains too, he was in great form in Paris-Nice, finishing 4th overall after a very consistent week. He also went well in the Dauphiné, helping Adam Yates in to the yellow jersey up until he started to get sick in the final two stages. Once Yates had gone home on the final day and he was given the freedom to go, he showed how good his form is with a fantastic 2nd place, just being outsprinted by Dylan Van Baarle in a two-up finish, 50" ahead of the 3rd place rider and 2 mins ahead of the GC group. 

He will be the '3rd man' they need to finish high up every stage, and in fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see him finish ahead of Simon on some stages. Juul-Jensen, Impey and Trentin are also good for the possible big breakaways that takes lots of time, so actually, if Adam and Simon fire, Mitchelton could be big value at that price, but no-one is offering e/w bets.  

Groupama FDJ - 16/1

A lot of weight on Pinot's shoulders, France expects. But there's also a lot of weight on David Gaudu, Rudy Molard, Sebastien Reichenbach, Stefan Kung and Anthony Roux to stay close to their team leader (and Gaudu too for the white possibly). He has got some really good climbers with him though in Gaudu, Reichenbach and Molard, but Reichenbach doesn't seem to be having a great season and I'm worried about his ability in the big mountains when he's needed the most. 

It could well be though that we see Pinot and Gaudu on their own a lot towards the end of stages and Molard and SR will be battling to get home in the top 20 or 30. They won't have the worst TTT squad here, but it won't be great either, and bar Kung, they will not do great in the ITT. Kung, Molard and Bonnet are possible break candidates, but I don't really have much confidence in them as a team as a whole and can't see them troubling Movistar, Ineos or Astana. 

Others

AG2R, Bahrain, UAE and Jumbo Visma all have men going for the GC, well maybe with the exception of Bahrain and Nibali if his patter is to be believed. AG2R have a solid looking team, Bardet will have Vuillermoz, Frank and Cherel in the mountains, but it's more than likely he'll be on his own for the last 4 or 5kms on the big stages.

Bahrain could be interesting if Nibali is true to his word and goes on the attack a lot, while also being able to stick close to the GC guys on the big stages. Mohoric, Dennis and Caruso will go well too in the mountains and Tratnik, Teuns, Colbrelli and Garcia Cortina are break candidates that could take big time some day.

UAE will have Dan Martin in the top 10 of a lot of stages, not just the mountain ones, but the rolling stages with punchy finishes, and Rui Costa, Sergio Henao and Fabio Aru can go well in the mountains, but could also be very valuable break candidates that could take minutes here and there. 

Jumbo Visma are all here for Steven Kruijswijk and he will be well supported by Laurens de Plus and George Bennett in the mountains. He will also have Van Aert, Martin and newly-crowned Norwegian champion Amund Jansen as possible break candidates, and they should do very well in the TTT with SK, Martin and Van Aert in that squad. They look big at 33/1, but I fear that SK will be all on his own too often on the key stages. 

So it looks like Movistar's to lose once again, but that will rely on Quintana, Landa and Valverde going very well for all three weeks, something that is hard to guarantee really. Ineos are probably more reliable, but if anything were to happen to Thomas or Bernal, the wheels would very quickly come off. Mitchelton Scott look a big price, and I'm willing to have a small bet on them at 22/1 just in case things go a bit pear-shaped for Movistar and Ineos, they have a very strong squad and could well be up there at the front on a regular basis with the Yates's and Haig.  

Recommendation:

0.5pts win on Mitchelton Scott at 22/1