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- Published on Wednesday, 24 July 2019 19:48
TDF 2019 Stage 18
Embrun - Valloire
Thursday 25th July, 207kms
And not only that, they are basically climbing from the gun, with the Cote de Demoiselles Coiffées (the hill of the girls with fancy hairdos!) about 10kms in and then they are climbing more or less from the 20kms mark for the next 60kms, hitting the Col Du Vars summit with 82.5kms gone. There may be three massive climbs on the menu, but the stage finishes with an 18km descent off the Galibier to the finish in Valloire.
Three times today they will climb to the top of climbs that are over 2,000m, a very rare trilogy for a stage in the Tour, and one that is really going to test the climbers all day long. Despite all the climbing, the stage could well be won on the 19km descent, which finishes with a 1km kick up to the line at 2.7%.
The Giro was the last Grand Tour to come up here in 2013 in the freezing cold, they came from the Valloire side and finished on top of the Galibier, Gio Visconti won the stage from Betancur, Niemiec and Majka, with Scarponi and Nibali 54" down in 6th and 7th, Cadel Evans was 8th and Rigo Uran 9th. Even though they came from the other side, the gradient is very similar and you can see just how fast that final climb is. If you are strong, on a good day and just get in a nice rhythm you can really fly up this climb, as you can see with how well Visconti held the gap to the chasers in the video below.
It also famously made a double appearance in the 2011 Tour de France, when they went over it on stage 18 and 19, and it's been used five time in the Tour on stages that have finished atop Alpe D'Huez.
Stage 17 Review
So we got our big break of the day, and a massive break it was -34 riders at first, with UAE and Cofidis having four riders each and Astana with three men, with Izagirre, Fraile and our boy Cort. Unfortunately for Cort he punctured almost as soon as the break had formed and dropped out of it. Still, we had Greg Van Avermaet, Xandro Meurisse and Jasper Stuyven in the break, with Toms Skujins also having made it.
Total Direct Energie missed the break and went to the front for about 30kms, trying to pull back the break when the gap was about 40”, and although they held the gap somewhat, they were fighting a losing battle and eventually let it go and the lead ballooned up to over 20 minutes by the finish.
Matteo Trentin looked really strong all day and was made the 3/1 favourite as soon as the dust settled with the break, and it was justified - he helped force a split with just under 40kms to go which took Greg Van Avermaet, Toms Skujins and 4 others, and again with 14kms to go he jumped away and soloed to victory.
Kasper Agreen came from behind the original group and eventually jumped away to chase Trentin home for 2nd, with Greg Van Avermaet winning the sprint for 3rd. Van Avermaet just didn’t have the legs to go on the climbs, and it looked a little too like he gambled as he didn’t want to be leaned on too much, he was pulling over to the side and looking for someone else to come through, but the gap grew quickly and he hadn’t the legs to help pull it back. A disappointing end to a promising situation, unless you backed him each-way.
The Route
Compared to the monsters to come, the first climb of the day after just 13kms looks like a little speed bump, but it's still 3.9kms at 5.2%, it'll be where the break of the day starts to pull away. As they wind their way east and turn north they start climbing, gently at first, but they are actually climbing for 60kms by the time they reach the top of the first Cat 1 climb of the day, the Col de Vars.
Officially the KOM part of the climb is 9.3kms at 7.5%, but this gets really nasty, with 2kms at 10.1% in the middle, topping out at 2,109m. A 19km descent takes them to the bottom slopes of the Col d'Izoard, and again, although they climb for 32kms, the categorised part is still a long 14.1kms at 7.3%, topping out at 2,360m. It gets really steep from about 8kms to about 11.5kms in to it, hitting 9-10%, then dips a little for 500m, before kicking up again to over 10% for the last 1100m of the climb. This could well be where we say goodbye to Julian.
Another 19km descent and on to the bottom of the Galibier - 37kms from the bottom of the valley to the top, with the categorised part 23kms at 5.1%, topping out at a lofty 2,642m. It really isn't the hardest of climbs though, with the first 14kms averaging only around 4%. The next 5kms average 6%, and it gets a little steeper for the next kilometre, averaging 9%, back to 5.25% for 2kms, then 9% again for the last kilometre.
Yet another 19km descent follows, and it's a tricky, twisting descent down to Valloire. The descent from 5kms to 2.5kms to go is pretty straight and fast, there is a little chicane to get through with 1500m to go, then a really sharp right-hander with 800m to go and an s-bend to get through 350m from the line. There is one last sharp right with 200m to go, then it's straight to the finish line. With 1km to go the road kicks up a little to the finish, but at 2.7% gradient it will almost feel like a flat run to the line.
There was a bit of argy-bargy between Tony Martin and Luke Rowe with 20kms to go, Martin seeming to try to run Rowe off the Rowe and it looks like there was 'befores and afters' between them, but they tried to play it down at the finish. The commissaires took a dim view of it though and chucked them both out of the race. Rowe is a much bigger loss to Ineos than Martin is to Jumbo, Thomas has lost a strong lieutenant.
Route Map
Profile
Col de Vars
Col d'Izoard
9
Col du Galibier
Last Kms
Contenders and Favourites
This could be a real pivotal day in both the GC and the KOM competition. With a Cat 1 and a HC climb out on the route, a strong breakaway rider can take 50pts out on the route, and potentially 20 more on the Galibier, if they make it to the top before getting caught. Alternatively, should the break not make it to top of the Galibier, then there is 40pts up for grabs to whoever of the GC group crests the climb first.
And the points are still considerable, even for 2nd, 3rd or 4th, worth fighting for. If Simon Yates, Vincenzo Nibali or Romain Bardet really do have designs on the jersey then they have to be in the break today, or indeed Thomas de Gendt, Giulio Ciccone or anyone else.
Take big points today, chip away again with the two 3rd cats and Cat 2 on the next stage, maybe even the 40pts for the Col de L’Iseran, and then take the 15pts for the Roselend and Longefoy on stage 20 and they could just wrap it up. But also on the contrary, these next three stages could see the GC men divvy up the big 40pt HC climbs – if one rider, like Pinot or Bernal goes on a rampage they could take the 40pts on the Galibier, Iseran, Montee de Tignes and Val Thorens, there’s 130pts up for grabs there.
Right now, Tim Wellens holds a 14pt lead over Pinot, but I don’t expect Wellens to be involved in the final shakeup for this jersey. Pinot is 13pts ahead of Thomas de Gendt and Alaphilippe 4pts further back. Simon Yates is 35pts behind Wellens, one HC climb and he leapfrogs over him..
So how is that going to affect how we think about this stage and who could possibly win it? Well, you’d have to think all those guys mentioned above will be trying to get in the break (non-GC guys I mean) and we could see a big battle of strong climbers trying to get away.
Betway once again were way ahead of the game opening up their book on Monday for this stage and these were their prices Monday night:
So, can Simon Yates do it again? It almost looks like it's Simon Yates from the break versus all the GC men, with Pinot, Landa, Bernal, Thomas just after him in the betting. Then they switch to Nibali and Bardet at just 20/1 and 22/1, they seem pretty short to me. They have Julian Alaphilippe next at 28/1, and a week ago he might have been a tempting bet, but I think he's 28/1 to just make it home with the GC men!
So how do we think this one is going to go then? Well, it is a right mix up at Betway as regards how they see it going, with the break guys interspersed between the GC men.. It actually looks like they haven't got a clue and just threw a load of random numbers out there with a massive over-round to see what people thought and will duck and dive accordingly. They will probably completely reorder and redo the book once Bet365 come out with their prices..
I think the break has a good chance of making it though again on this stage. The start isn't too difficult, so we should get a big group go, and we might see some teams with several guys in there, some guys whose sole purpose is to drive the break along to give their preferred rider the biggest possible margin starting the Galibier.
There probably won't be much GC action over the Col de Vars though, which should give the stronger climbers in the break a chance to really forge ahead and build up a lead of 6-7 minutes. They'll hold that sort of gap most of the way up the Izoard, but we are sure to see some GC action in the second half of the climb as the likes of Jumbo and Ineos try to shed Alaphilippe and anyone else they can ahead of the final climb. If they can get some time here on some rivals they will push on on the descent and in the valley.
But the gap should stay relatively stable for the next 30kms or so as the break push hard and the GC teams ready themselves for the final climb. But the Galibier, as long as it is, isn't really a back-breaker. Stronger guys, maybe not even the best climbers in the break could stay in contact most of the way up this climb. They might lose a little ground in the last kilometre or three as the likes of Yates try to put the hammer down, but with a 19km run to the finish, there's a chance that they might be able to regain contact before the finish.
Also, I think we might see a solid pace up the Galibier by the GC teams, but it might be that no one really wants to waste too much energy on a climb where it's hard to make up a great deal of time. The road is wide and well surfaced and the gradient is not too difficult at all. Unless someone is showing signs of distress and was under a lot of pressure, then I think most of the GC men will be happy to save the legs for what's to come on Friday and Saturday. There might be someone try a dig over the top on the 9% section to get a gap and try descending faster than the others to make time, but none of them are great descenders!
So break or GC, GC or break.. It is very hard to call - there are a lot of tired guys out there and there are two harder days yet to come.. But having said that, the stage that caused the most damage to Alaphilippe was 15 to Foix, which had two big climbs to sap the strength of Alaphilippe and strip away his team-mates, similar to this one, so I expect Groupama, Ineos and Jumbo to all probe for weaknesses. If they can eliminate Alaphilippe from the front group early on he could lose minutes and let Ineos, Kruijswijk and Pinot fight it out for the podium spots.
Another likely scenario though is we see Mikel Landa make a move on a stage like this - the two preceeding climbs and the final climb to the Galibier are perfect for him.. If Movistar put Soler, Amador, Erviti or Verona in the break Landa could bridge on the Izoard and get a tow to the final climb like he did on 15, he was flying on Sunday.
He is still not out of it either and if could take 30-40" and the two time bonuses (there's one at the top of the Galibier) he's suddenly after taking back a minute and is just over a minute off the podium. If he repeats that sort of feat on Friday and Saturday he's right in the game. He was flying on Sunday and only Pinot was able to catch him as he tired near the end of the climb, but this looks a lot more up his street and the 7/1 is a tempting e/w bet, he could take the stage win, or at worst be 2nd or 3rd after escaping out of the GC group and chasing home a solo winner..
What about Simon Yates though at just 9/2? It's very, very short for a stage where anything could happen, but if he does get in the break, and the break gets enough rope, he probably wins. He is clearly one of the best 5 climbers in the race, the other 4 are back in the GC battle, so if he can start the Galibier with the break, or even ahead of it after leaving them on the Izoard, then he probably won't be caught.
It is a very long climb though and he dug deep on Sunday, will he be able to keep it up? A stage win with the Galibier and Izoard on it to complete the hat-trick must be a great motivation for him though, especially as the next two stages are more than likely to be GC days. He may even have the likes of Haig or Adam in the break with him to help him thin out the pack on the first two climbs.
But another dimension was added to the M-S possibilities today though, when Wiggins said on Eurosport that Matty White told him they were going to be sending Adam in breaks, that he looks to be feeling a lot better. A man who has come here to win the race, has had a disaster and watched his brother take two stage wins? A man that is a GC-level rider with a point to prove? A man that might be aided to a stage vicotry by his brother in the break? Maybe we should be on Adam at 28/1 instead...
Others for the break? Well, I was hoping Warren Barguil would be let loose soon to go after some stages and KOM points, but he looks to be playing the GC game, which is bit of a disappointment, no one cares or will remember that he finished 12th. But he's only 7'22" down, so won't be allowed go in a break that can take 5 minutes, he'll be on the podium at that rate. And the way he's riding to be honest I don't see him being able to attack away to win from the GC group if they do pull back the break.
Vincenzo Nibali and Romain Bardet haven't looked like they could take a stage like this - Nibali did show some glimpses of form and ambitiion getting in the breaks, but fell away tamely, same with Bardet, he looked good taking the KOM on the Soulor on Saturday, but fell away in the end as well.. But it's looking better for him, he could easily have withdrawn, like a lot of others would and tried to reassess his health and maybe prepare for a tilt at the Vuelta. Instead, he came out swinging and could be determined to try to leave this race with something - a KOM jersey would be very nice indeed Romain!
It might even be that we see him strike a deal with Mitchelton.. Yates lets him take the KOM on the climbs, but Yates can take the stage.. It's possible.. But I can't see him win the stage unless he has a miraculous recovery to vintage Bardet form. Michael Woods, Dan Martin, Giulio Ciccone, Ilnur Zakarin, and Fabio Aru are others who look interested and capable at least of doing something on a stage like this, but they just haven't been good enough, even Simon Geschke rode away from most of them on Sunday.. No offence Simon! Jesus Herrada and Bauke Mollema are two more that could have been involved but they were in the break today so I don't think they'll go again tomorrow.
Two teams who will probably be desperate to get men in the break though are Arkea Samsic and particularly Total DE - they both missed the big break today and chased for a long time, looking more like a DS's punshment than anything else. TDE had the team owner in the car apparently so that will not have gone down well, they are sure to be getting a blasting tonight from the management and will be going all-out to get involved. From Arkea, Elie Gesbert looks the best option, and for TDE, Rein Taaramae, Roman Sicard or Lilian Calmejane, but I can't see any those three winning.
So unless someone comes out of left field and has a blinding day, it's hard to see past the Yates's and Landa as being the most likely from breaks to win it. They might be from two different scenarios though given their GC positions, Yates from the early break of the day, Landa to come after him on the Galibier again like he did on Sunday.
As for the GC men, I think the only way that most of them won't finish together is for some teams and riders to really rip it to hell on the Izoard in that second, steeper half. If they can do that and put Alaphilippe and a few more in trouble, then we could see a showdown between maybe only 8 or 10 guys on the Galibier. But again, this probably plays in to the hands of the break as there might be a lot of looking at each other and leaning on each other, there could be a lot of soft-pedalling.
Based on what we have seen in the last few stages, expect Bennett and De Plus to be there for Kruijswijk though and they could really start to pile the pressure on, maybe for SK to try something on the Galibier..There doesn't seem to be much love between Jumbo and Ineos at the moment, I think they will take the fight to them on the Izoard and see how they respond.
If they can strip down the peloton to only a handful and George Bennett is there with him, he could set a strong pace and SK then goes on the attack - a long, steady climb like this is perfect for his diesel engine to just get in to TT mode and power up that mountain. Emanuel Buchmann is a similar sort of rider, and a number of the Bora team have been talking about how he will like these long, steady climbs, that he too has a diesel engine. He's not out of the running whatsoever in the GC, and in fact, it was his powerful surges that dislodged Geraint Thomas on the Tourmalet. I'm sure we'll see him attack at some point on the Galibier.
But what about the Ineos boys? Thomas could well take a stage like this if he was riding like he did last year (and if the break has been reeled in) - his finishes on la Rosiere and Alpe d'Huez spring to mind as similar sort of gradients and difficulty. But has he those same legs this year? It didn't look like it on the Tourmalet, but he was much better the next day on the way to Prat d'Albis, and he also said that he had the legs to attack sooner but he didn't want to with Bernal up the road.
Luke Rowe is a big loss to him though, Castroviejo, Moscon and Kwiato just haven't been up to it this race, he's going to be relying on Wout Poels (who was struggling to even hold the back of the peloton on the flat today) or they might call rank with Bernal and make him work for him. But if it turns out that Bernal has the better legs tomorrow, they might have to let him go again, should Pinot or Buchmann go on the attack.
Thibaut Pinot is sure to attack as well - he needs to keep testing and probing at the Ineos boys, Kruijswijk and Alaphilippe. Gaudu will probably do a massive job for him again on the 9% section with 4kms to go and he could take off shortly after that if they have shredded what's left of the GC group. The way he has ridden away from everyone so far in this race would suggest that he could get clean space again.. but will he be escaping after the stage winner is already decided? That's the question.. if not, he probably wins the stage and is one to watch for in play too maybe.
So there we are.. I really think this is going to be the start of three amazing days and we hopefully will see some great attacking and great racing. As for tomorrow, I think it could well be a Yates day, and Simon is the most likely winner, but if Adam really is feeling better, there are a lot of reasons why we should back him. I also think Mikel Landa will play a role in this stage and is an e/w poke too.
Recommendations:
0.5pts win on Adam Yates at 28/1 with Betway (take it quick, he's been cut to 16s at Bet365)
2pts win on Simon Yates at 9/2 with Betway
0.5pts e/w on Mikel Landa at 7/1 with Skybet
Match Bets
Valverde to beat Alaphilippe - 2pts at 5/6
Guillaume Martin to beat Kreuziger and Barguil to beat Quintana - 2pts at 11/10
Ilnur Zakarin to beat Nibali - 3pts at 4/6