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- Published on Wednesday, 10 July 2019 20:54
TDF 2019 Stage 6
Mulhouse - La Planche des B F
Thursday 11th July, 157kms
A stage finish that is becoming a bit of a regular in recent years, having featured in the 2017 edition (when Fabio Aru soloed to victory), 2014 (when Vincenzo Nibali won) and in 2012 (when Chris Froome announced himself to the TDF).
In the last three editions that the race finished on La Planche des Belles Filles, the final climb was 5.9kms with an average gradient of 8.5%. The 2019 stage is going to be 1km longer, and not only that, but that extra kilometre is on gravel, save for the last 100 metres. This is a proper hard stage, only 6 stages in. It could well set the tone for the rest of the race, and we should start to see a hierarchy emerge of who really is going to be challenging for this Tour, and who isn't.
Stage 5 Review
Well that was exciting for a long time and hugely frustrating in the end. We had Wellens and Skujins make the break as I hoped they would, but the break of 4 was small, and was never given much rope at all by the peloton. Bora and Sunweb kept a furious pace all day and the gap never went higher than about 2’30” all day, which was very disappointing. Skujins gave us a real good run for our money though, and if you had backed him win only you would have been able to cash out at 9/1 at one stage for more than double your stake, even though it was inevitable he was going to be caught.
Then, after all the work Sunweb did all day, Matthews totally blew the sprint and finished 7th, very, very bloody annoying, I was sure we’d take the e/w return at least with 5kms to go. He was even beaten by Julien Simon.. Also, even more frustrating, was Sonny Colbrelli hanging in there comfortably all day, only to get bumped off every wheel in the sprint and being shuffled back to about 10th place starting the sprint, and inevitably finishing 4th. Happy with the calls today, Colbrelli at 66/1 would have been a decent e/w return, but we were left frustrated in the end. Half way to Sagan’s two stage wins at 6/5 though, that should land now I think.
On to tomorrow and the easy task of trying to pick a winner on a fiendishly difficult stage..
Route
A brutally-hard looking stage on the profile, with seven categorised climbs, including three Cat 1 climbs, two Cat 2s and two Cat 3s. The only flat bit of the entire day is the opening 20kms, but it starts to rise up pretty soon after that, taking in the first intermediate sprint after 29kms as they head up the first climb of the day, Le Markstein (10.8kms at 5.4%). There's a little plateau at the top, then it kicks up again for the last 1.3kms at 9%, for the Cat 3 Grand Ballon. That tops out after 50kms, then descends for 17kms before kicking up straight from the bottom for the climb of the Col du Hundsruck (5.3kms at 6.9%)
The Ballon d'Alsace follows after 105kms (11kms at 5.8%) as they continue heading west, then the little Col Des Croix (3.3kms at 6.1%) after 123kms before they head in to the crucial final double-climb finale to the race. First up is the nasty Col Des Chevreres - it may only be 3.5kms long, but it averages 9.5%, hitting 14.9% average for a kilometre near the top with a max of 18%. That tops out with just 19kms to go, followed by a gentle descent for 8kms, 4kms along the flat, then it hits the bottom of the PDBF.
The Planche is 7kms at 8.7%, and starts hard from the bottom, hitting 9.4% for the first km, then 6.7%, then 9.45% for the next 2kms. It eases back a little to 8.3% for a kilometre, then starts to step - a little flat section is followed by a really steep part that hits 20%, then another short flat part as they start the final kilometre. It's a slightly different look to the climb too though than in the past, with the climb being extended by a kilometre from in the past, kicking up for the last 700m at over 20%, hitting a max of 24%.
The start of the final section is a gravel road (below), only the last 200m are paved as you can see in the second picture below (the first red part is the gravel part, you can see where the paved road starts where it changes colour.
Route Map
Profile
Last Kms Profile
Last Kms Map
Contenders and Favourites
This is a beast of a stage and I think I'll start by saying I don't give the break much of a chance for tomorrow - the GC teams are going to be on this from the start, and although we might get a decent-sized break go on Le Markstein, I think Movistar, Ineos and maybe even Bahrain and M-S will push hard on the very first climb to try to strip out as many support riders as possible. If Fuglsang isn't 100% still then they will want to twist the knife and maybe see off a potential competitor.
This is going to be a real war of attrition over the last 65kms, with first the Ballon d'Alsace that starts with 65kms to go and has some real steep sections near the bottom kicking things off, as there are only 55kms left to go from the top, of which 14kms are the descent from the top.
There's the little Col des Croix next, but I don't think that will have any impact on the outcome, but the Chevreres should see some proper action. From the bottom it's about 10kms, but the official KOM is just 3.5kms, but a very steep 9.5% average, with the 2nd kilometre averaging 10% and the 3rd averaging 14.9% before easing back for the last 500m to 3%. Here we could see some sattelite riders like Luis Leon or Mikel Landa try to attack and get away ahead of the final climb to help their team leaders, should they attempt an attack and try to bridge on La Planche.
The Planche is pretty steady, around 8-9.5% all the way up, but starts to get really steep near the top, the last section to where the finish line used to be hits 20% for a hundred metres or so before flattening out where the line used to be. But they continue on and go on to the gravel road where it gets super-steep again as it approaches the summit.
Forget about the break today as I said, it will be like today where there will be a big battle to get in to it inside the first 30kms, but the GC teams will start to control it from the very first climb and will keep the pressure on all day, dooming the break’s chances.
Ineos will probably look to control the race and will up the pace big-time on the Chevreres with Castroviejo, Rowe and Kwiatkowski all pushing hard. Poels, Moscon and Castroviejo will take over on the final climb ready to set up their two top men. They reconned this climb, including the gravel section before the Tour de Suisse, so they will know exactly what is facing them.
Of the two, I’m leaning towards Egan Bernal laying down a marker tomorrow within the team, and on the race, and kicking away on the 20% section that was the finish on the old climb and getting a small gap and then kicking on again on the gravel road, his lightweight frame will see him fly up the final 24% section. Geraint Thomas isn’t really built for really steep, sharp finishes like this, he’s prefer something around 7-8% for a lot longer, but he can block and mark the others when they try to come after Bernal.
Movistar have a few candidates for today too, will we see Nairo Quintana make a move this early in the race? Well it looks like he doesn’t like this finish so much judging on the last time they came up here in 2017, he struggled on the climb and lost 34” to Aru and 14” to Froome, and that was not including the new final finish. Mikel Landa could try a move on the Chevreres and try to set up a late attack for Quintana, or he could try a move himself on the opening 4kms of the Planche and see if the others look at each other, he might get a gap and could hold it all the way. Alejandro Valverde is another danger, if it comes to a reduced group hitting the last 500m, he’d have a chance too, but he’s not looking in top shape at the moment to me.
Jakob Fuglsang isn’t feeling 100% yet he admitted after today’s stage, says he thinks he's around 90%, so I think we will see Fraile, Sanchez and the rest maybe trying to control a steady pace where they can, nursing him home tomorrow, trying to ensure that he doesn’t lose too much time. Mitchelton-Scott have a real danger for this stage too in Adam Yates, if it comes to the last kilometre and he’s hanging on the shoulders of the leaders, he has a very strong attack that could see him launch off the front and he could take the stage on a steep finish like this. We've barely seen him so far in this race, but I think that's a good thing, he's comfortably hiding away.
The two French challengers, Romain Bardet and Thibault Pinot will be very interested in this stage too. Pinot is a local boy and trains regularly on this climb, so will be looking forward to this climb. He has mixed results on the climb though, the last time up here in 2017 he had a really bad day and got dropped with 4kms to go, losing over 4 minutes by the finish.
In 2012 he lost 1’24” to Froome, finishing 15th. But in 2014, with no Froome in the race, he finished 2nd, just 15” behind Nibali and over a minute ahead of Thomas. He is a far better rider nowadays though I think and apparently a lot of the commentators and experts at the Tour are thinking he will go well tomorrow, I’m not so sure he can win though, unless he's got a gap of 20-30" hitting the last kilometre or so I'm not sure he has the kick to win on this finish.
Romain Bardet is coming closer to home in Brioude and is sure to get plenty of support along the way. 5th in 2017 behind Aru, he finished just 4” behind Froome and Porte, and was also 5th here in 2014, just 22” behind Nibali (7” after Pinot), he tried a few moves along the way but was reeled in each time. He is probably going to be isolated on the final climb, he hasn’t looked himself at times this season, but he has shown in the past here he has the ability to finish in the top 5, and there’s no Froome this year either.. He should be top 10 again.
Luckily for Richie Porte this stage generally comes early in the race, as he has a habit of not getting past the 9th stage. His lightweight body and powerful climbing legs are perfect for this climb, particularly the really steep parts near the finish when everyone is going to be on the limit. 4th in 2017, 7th in 2014 and 13th in 2012 (after doing a huge amount of work to set up Froome’s win), Porte could be a dark horse for this stage at a big price of 50/1
Dan Martin is another I like for tomorrow, he was the fastest of the main bunch up here in 2017, only Fabio Aru had already flown the nest. He finished ahead of Froome, Porte, Bardet, Quintana Uran, Thomas and the rest that day. In 2012 he finished 17th when he was just 25. He apparently has changed his approach for this Tour and says he's going to target specific stages, well I think this could well be one of them.
He and Fabio Aru could be big dangers tomorrow, I noticed Aru make a move to the front towards the end of the final climb today, he must be feeling good at the moment too, and of course won here as I said in 2017. He’s had a long road back from a mystery injury, which they finally diagnosed and operated on this year, and has been easing himself back into things in the last month.
If he attacks hard like he did in 2017 and the others look at each other, they might not catch him again. But until I see some form for myself, I'm not going to back him, even at generous-looking odds of 66/1, I think he could be working for Dan tomorrow. Dan needs to make sure he doesn't get dropped earlier in the climb though.
Steven Kruijswijk will be motivated to go hard today, there is a good chance that he could be wearing yellow at the end of the day if they can shake off Alaphilippe and he sticks close to Bernal. But do they want the jersey so early in the race? Unless Alaphilippe is there and looks like he will hold on to the jersey for now, I don't think Kruijswijk will hold back at all, he will be all over the shoulders of Bernal and Poels and will look to follow the moves. I don't think he has what it takes to win up here, but he won't be far off.
And EF have a number of candidates who will be interested in the finish of this stage, particularly Michael Woods, that finish is a bit like the finish of the World Championships and we saw how well he went up there. We also saw he was one of only a few riders who tried to go after Alaphilippe on Monday, he looked strong there. He will love the 24% gradients and could be one of the fastest in the last 500m. But will he have stayed with the best when the hammer is put down inside the last 3kms? That could be his undoing.
But they also have Rigoberto Uran, he too will be looking to perform well tomorrow and stay in contention. He was 7th here in 2017, not far behind Froome and ahead of Quintana, he'll be happy to finish inside 30" of the winner again I think, I can't see him making the top 3.
Bet365 have made Julian Alaphilippe just 14/1 for this stage, and I think that's way too short for me, I don't think he will stay with the leaders and will lose the jersey tomorrow. I think that it will kick off again around 2.5kms to go to the top of the old finish, where Nibali attacked in 2014, and even if Alaphilippe has managed to hang in there until then, I don't think he will stay with the leaders when the likes of Nibali, Bernal, Pinot and the rest start duking it out, and maybe he'll be needed to look after Enric Mas anyway.
Enric Mas has been a little forgotten about with all the excitement around Alaphilippe and Viviani, but tomorrow is the first day we will get to see what he has to offer. He's 50/1, is that a good bet? Well we'll find out tomorrow afternoon, but I don't think we'll be seeing him winning here, I think in fact he might struggle a little on that finish.
This should be a fantastic stage, you could see the nerves and anticipation in the faces and voices of the riders in the post-race interviews tonight, they are dreading this one. How do we see it going? Well, I think Ineos will take over this one on the final climb, when we might not have many more than 30 riders left, with Poels, Moscon and Castroviejo giving their last bit of energy to set it up for their leaders.
Thomas might try a dig with 3-4kms to go and get pulled back by Astana, Movistar, Porte, Pinot and Nibali, then Pinot tries but doesn't get very far either. Then Bernal will take off as they approach the old finish and kicks on to attack the final kilometre on his own. There will be a brief pause as the others look at each other and Nibali, Quintana and Valverde all shake their heads.
Bernal holds on to win, but Yates, Woods and Martin take off after Bernal inside the last 500m, with Yates taking 2nd and Martin 3rd. Porte could also attack, I have a feeling he has been waiting for this and although I haven't picked him as the top 3 above, I think he might not be far off at all and if Woods or Martin have got dropped before the final kick, Porte could be a decent outside bet at 50/1
Steven Kruijswijk leads the chase and grinds back to within 10" of Bernal at the finish as he starts to fade, and Kruijswijk just misses out on taking yellow thanks to Bernal's bonus seconds. Pinot, Bardet, Uran, Thomas and Quintana will finish in ones and twos but within 30" of them too. Jakob Fuglsang, Enric Mas, Warren Barguil and Zakarin will lose time.
I can't really call anything with massive confidence though, this is a nightmare stage to try to predict, there are just so many guys who could have a say in this stage finish and we have no real form to go on so far.. Small stakes for this one, just enjoy it and takes some clues for next week and the week after.
Recommendations:
1.5pts win on Bernal at 3/1 on Betfair
0.3pts e/w on Richie Porte at 50/1 with Bet365
0.5pts e/w on Adam Yates at 11/1 with Bet365
Matchbets
Yates to beat Fuglsang - 3pts at 4/6
Aru to beat Buchmann - 1pt at 2/1
Porte to beat Nibali - 2pts at evens