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Published on Tuesday, 05 July 2016 18:44

TDF Stage 5

Limoges to Le Lioran

Wed. 6th July, 216kms 

This is the stage I am probably most looking forward to of the entire race.. Why? Well I know the finishing area like the back of my hand - I have been going to the Cantal to my in-laws for nearly 20 years and have ridden many of the roads covered in the last 50kms.

I was even there at Christmas doing a little recon of my own of the finish in Le Lioran, I was trying to figure out where the final kilometre was as it was still quite vague on the map. I reckoned they were going to take what was to me an unusual step of finishing on the road up to the car park of the ski station, but it's slightly different as I explain below. It is also a nice little finishing kick of around 6% which could provide a very exciting finish. 

How much closer can we get to a winner?? Coquard denies us the each-way on Sagan yesterday, Kittel finally pulls his finger out and of course denies us an 8/1 winner today. So, so close for Coquard, I (and many commentators apparently) thought Coquard had won it on first viewing, Kittel got it by millimetres. A brilliant sprint from Coquard, he came from miles back to almost beat Kittel, he can rightly claim, as he did after the finish, that he is up with the sprinting elite now. To confirm it though he has to take a World Tour win, and it may not be long in coming. 

And what about our 500/1 man Naesen?! He came within 7kms of winning after being in the break all day. It's just a shame the peloton didn't go as slow as they did yesterday, their lead never really got above about 6mins. It's a pity though, as he says he was feeling the strongest of the break:

"I thought we were on for the same stage as yesterday but the sprinters team pushed hard very early. Our team asked us to try to get in the breakaway and I got at the front of the race. I hoped we would make it to the finish, you never know, even if those breakaways end up to be overtaken 95% of the time. I felt I was stronger than my companions. That's a pity." You're telling me Oliver! Gave us a good run for our money though and if you had backed him with PP you could have cashed out for something like 5pts or more I think in play. 

Sagan was 3rd again, but we had him win-only today, but at least the e/w paid out on Coquard and the matchbet treble landed at a nice 2/1 to make it a small 1.6pt profit. We'll chip away, waiting for the big one to land.. Oh and Thomas de Gendt was in the first break of the day too that failed, he had Bodnar, Impey and Vermote in there with him, three big engines, it's just a pity their group didn't make it with Naesen's group.. 

Back to stage 5 then, and not only is this a very tough stage with a hard last 50kms or so, but it's also a long stage at 216kms, the third longest stage of the race, and comes on the back of two stages of 223kms and 237kms. The riders will definitely be feeling it at the end of this stage, and I think a lot will be surprised by the difficulty of the Pas de Peyrol and Perthus. The first 150kms don't look too difficult, but if you know the Correze and the Cantal regions at all you'll know that there is barely a flat kilometre along these roads, just lots of little ups and downs, some stretches of 500m, 1000m etc that can be 6, 7, 8, 9, 10%, and they really sap the legs. Some surfaces are smooth, some are real tyre-grabbers. 

Things get interesting though after they pass through the lovely little town of Mauriac and start climbing towards Salers. Salers is a beautiful walled town dating back to the 16th century with stunning old houses and buildings. The town gives its name to the breed of brown hairy cattle with the big horns, many of which wear very stylish leather neck belts with ornate cowbells that you can hear clanging away up in the hills when riding along through the peaceful countryside. 

It also gives its name to a piss-yellow liquer that the locals love to drink, almost as much as Pastis for an aperatif, the Salers drink coming from the Gentiane plant that grows in the area. Not one of my favourites though!

The Col de pas de Peyrol (also known as the Puy Mary, as it has a statue of Mary at the very top of the highest peak) has three different ascents up to it. The last time they came up it they came from the north-east, which is easier than the side they are coming up from Salers, which is the hardest ascent with the last 2-3kms being particularly nasty, I recall having to weave from side to side in parts just to get up it a few years back when I hit the parts that were close to 12% near the top. The climb that proceeds it, the Col de Neronne is a far nicer climb, a big ring climb you can really power up, especially if the wind is at your back. 

Once over the top of the Pas de Peyrol, the descent is tricky and dangerous - it was on this descent in 2011 that Alexander Vinokourov had to be helped up out of the trees after going over the side, he broke his hip in the fall. Jurgen Van den Broeck also crashed out of the race on the same bend. At the bottom, they take a sharp left and climb the Col de Perthus, which starts steep, around 11% and is also 11% near the top - it is very steep, I achieved my fastest ever speed on a bike in a sportive I did a few years back coming down that hill, hitting 88kmph.

Again, over the top sees them take on another tricky descent, with narrow roads and lots of twisty bends. At the bottom they take a sharp left in Saint Jacques des Blats and go on to the main road between Aurillac and Le Lioran, a big main road with a tacky surface and after a few kilometres of dragging up they turn left before entering the tunnel that goes underneath the Lioran ski station and start the climb of the Col de Font de Cere, a steady, fast climb that averages 5.8% for 3.3kms. 

When I first tried to figure out the finish to the stage at Christmas I thought they were going over the top of the 'Font de Cere' and down the main road to the bottom of the hill, before swinging backwards up to the Ski Station car park..

But looking at the road book now, I was wrong - at the top of the Font de Cere, they actually turn left and double back on themselves on a hairpin bend and up in to the hill above the ski station where the holiday cottages are, on a tiny, road normally really reserved just for holiday makers to get up to their chalets in the winter. It adds a bit more of a challenge to the Font de Cere hill as it's not the most challenging on it's own, almost a big-ring climb. 

Once over the top they descend down a really fast and tricky descent through three hairpin bends (top left on the blue line) before emerging out on to the main D67 road and climb back up the hill towards where they came from to the finish. The road climbs from the bottom near the white dot above, but you can't go too early, the first part through the arcing left hander is not so steep, but it gets steeper (below) as they head towards the right hander on to the finishing straight, climbing all the way to the line. You will need to control your effort and go late, go to early and you will be burnt before the finish.  

It's a day that a break could make it, it's a hard kind of course to be trying to control the race - in 2004 they did almost the same stage, but carried on to St Flour, making it a monster 237kms. I was on the Puy Mary that year, on Bastille Day, and watched as Richard Virenque powered up through a delirious crowd, chanting 'Richard, Richard' like they were at a football match. That day, Virenque held on to take a famous stage victory - the break made it.

In 2008 I was on the finish line in Aurillac outside the mother-in-law's house when Luis Leon Sanchez attacked late and won solo in to Aurillac, the race was split in to many parts by the finish. In 2011, we'll never forget this stage as it was the one where the TV2 car took out Johnny Hoogerland and Juan Antonio Flecha, and Luis Leon Sanchez took the victory in St Flour again from Thomas Voeckler and Sandy Casar, with the bunch led home by Philippe Gilbert, 3'59 behind them (below, Voeckler's crash is at 19:30, Vinokourov's crash is at 7:40). 

But personally I hope that the GC men pull them back on the Pas de Peyrol, as it is a lot closer to the finish this time than when they finished in St Flour, they should be going flat out in an effort to blow the race up. The Perthus is an opportunity to get away late in the race, if you have 30" to a minute going over the top you could hang on as the last climbs aren't that difficult. And I hope to see the favourites come to the last bend turning up to the finish together as I think Dan Martin has a real chance on a finish like this, if he can be in the first 4 or 5 coming through the right-hander at the bottom of the hill he has a real chance of attacking to victory up the final hill.

It's really beautiful around this part of the world with fantastic scenery and views from the top of the mountains, it should be a cracking stage too, and I can't wait! I might just have to take the afternoon off for it!

The Route

I've detailed the route quite extensively in my intro above already! They start in Limoges and head south-east for 135kms on the rolling roads of the Correze region, taking in a Cat 4 climb after just 16kms, but almost as soon as they enter the Cantal the road starts to get a little bit hillier and a little bit harder. First they take the Cote de Puy Saint Mary (6.8kms at 3.9%), then on to Salers, where there are some very steep roads on the approach to the town, then on to the Cat 3 Col de Neronne, a big-ring climb of 7kms at 3%. At this point they will have been climbing for nearly 40kms and after a short little descent in to the woods they start the Pas de Peyrol.

The stats say 5.4kms at 8.1%, but it's a nasty brute of a climb, constantly changing pitch and gradient, spent mostly in dark, cold, damp woods. The road is narrow and badly surfaced, and regularly pitches up to sections well in to the double digits. The last 3kms are very steep as they finally emerge out of the woods and take the right hander that takes them to the last kilometre, these parts are all over 11% and will really hurt at this point in the race.

Down the fast and dangerous descent for 11kms (averages 6.6%) and at the bottom they turn sharply left at the ancient church in the village of Mandailles Saint Julien and start on the Col de Perthus (right). The Perthus is steep and rough and the descent also, averaging 7.9% for 4.4kms, with the last two kms closer to 10% average. 

At the bottom they turn left at St Jaques des Blats and start the 3% drag up the big main road to the final climb of the day. They turn left off the main road at the foot of the hill of Le Lioran and wind their way up around the Col de Font de Cere, which is 3.3kms long at 5.8%, a lot of it could be normally ridden in the big ring, but maybe not after 212kms!

After a tricky descent down the other side they swing out on to the D67 again and head up towards the finish with about 700m to go. The final 500m averages around 6%, a finish that could well see a solo winner come home alone, or we could see a fascinating battle between the GC men over this wild and challenging closing 30kms. 

Contenders and Favourites

This is going to be an interesting stage as there will probably be many who will be pretty tired after a stressful and exhausting opening few stages, especially with the previous stage being 237kms long. I would think plenty will be hoping for an easy day here with a bit of action for the last 30kms to set up a GC battle and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a bit of a truce called early on which could see the break build up a big lead. 

But I think too many of the GC teams will want to take an interest in this finish to allow the break to succeed this time. This is the first big mountains of the race, and although they are referred to a 'medium' mountains in the Tour's description, they're not easy by any means and there will be plenty of riders lose time today, the only question is, will some of the GC men? 

I'm sure Froome and Quintana will be looking to take Contador out of the equation completely if he's struggling, they could put a minute or two in to him if they really start to push hard on the Pas de Peyrol and again on the Perthus shortly after. Contador will probably find it uncomfortable descending as well as climbing, so will find it difficult to stay with the top climbers over the closing stages here. If he finds himself 3-4 mins down that's it for him.

Paddy Power came out with their prices on Monday afternoon, and seeing as most other bookies just copy them, the prices probably won't differ much. They make Julian Alaphilippe the 4/1 favourite and that's very short to me.. Yes, he'll like this finish, and yes he looked good for a while on the 6% climb to the finish on stage 2, but he ran out of juice at the death and was passed by Sagan. There is a lot of climbing to be done in the closing kilometres and there were signs at times in the Dauphiné when Froome and Porte kicked off that he was struggling a little bit, I'm reluctant to back him at that price, especially as I think Dan Martin might be more suited to the finish. 

When I was there at Christmas I thought this finish is perfect for Dan Martin, and even though the finish is slightly different than what I thought it was the gradient and distance to the finish is more or less the same. I think he could be one of those to attack on the Col de Font de Cere and plunge down the other side, or more likely he will bide his time and sit in, waiting for the final climb to the line. Once on it, I think he has a great chance of attacking hard, this is like the finish of Liege-Bastogne-Liege with the many lumps and hills in the run-in, and a 6% uphill finish, which we know he masters. 8/1 was a little less than I expected, but I guess the bookies agree with me, but maybe some of the others will go bigger once they open. (Bet365 are now 12/1, that's worth an e/w bet.)

Another rider I want to keep onside for this is Romain Bardet - I've already mentioned how he is from the Auvergne and these are his training roads, he has said he knows the finish to this stage like the back of his hand. I expect to see him maybe trying to stretch things and attack on the Perthus, we all know how well he can descend when on the attack and he will know every metre of this tricky descent, a huge advantage over his rivals. It may be though that he waits for the Col de Font de Cere and tries attacking near the top of that as they get on to the narrow roads, and if he has a small gap he will stretch that on the descent down the other side. Starting the final hill with 10" or more could see him take it as no one behind might want to take up the chase. I thought he might be 20/1 or so, he opened at 40/1 so I had to take some of that, he's now 33/1 with them, but is 40/1 with Skybet, although I'd recommend taking the 33/1 with PP as they are paying 5 places. 

Alejandro Valverde is 3rd favourite at 7/1, and in any other year I'd have said that was a cracking price for a man like Valverde on this finish, the uphill sprint after a tough day in the saddle is right up his street too, as we know from LBL. He will be on Nairo babysitting duties though today and will have to work for him I think over the last 30kms, but you'd never know - if Quintana is feeling good, he may not need help, and they have plenty of other helpers. He did feature in the uphill sprint on stage 2, taking 3rd spot, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the frame again. 

Peter Sagan was 4th favourite at just 12/1, and if the finish didn't have the climbs before it I'd have been all over that I think. But I don't think Sagan will be able to stay with these guys when it goes full gas at the finish, there are some tough climbs to get over and they'll be doing their best to shed him I think. Incredibly though, he has been backed in to just 9/2 second favourite, I would be a happy layer at that price.

Same goes for Michael Matthews, he doesn't look like he has the legs to me to stay in there on this finish, nor can I see Simon Gerrans there, but you'd never know, he has won a LBL after all. And if you looked closely today, you'll see that the whole team were around Gerrans, Matthews was having to fend for himself - signs of the ongoing disharmony in that camp and probably sure signs he won't be there next year. 

Wilco Klederman looks pretty short in the betting to me at just 18/1, yes he's going well and was right up there in 6th place on stage 2's uphill finish, but I think this is a different ball game altogether and I can't see him in the top 3. If he was like 6 mins down or something they might let him go on the Perthus or the final climb but can't see it as he's in the top 20, on the same time as the GC favourites. 

Tony Gallopin and Purito Rodriguez are both 25/1, but I can't see either winning, Gallopin hasn't been in good enough form for me lately, I'll need to see something out of him first before backing him at that sort of price on a stage like this. Rodriguez tried to come there on Sunday on the hill, I thought for a minute, wooaahh, here's Purito, but he went out like a light when Alaphilippe and Sagan came at him, he eventually faded back to 15th place. I don't think he'll have the kick to win here either. 

Greg Van Avermaet might like this lumpy finish, but I think he will struggle to stay with the leaders over the Perthus and the Peyrol, but Tejay and Richie are sure to be near the front, unless Richie has another disaster. The finishing slope is his kind of slope though, he might be involved. And Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana are sure to be right at the front, they won't want to lose any time to anyone, but whether they will have the punch to win up this hill is another matter. Vincenzo Nibali, Rui Costa, Bauke Mollema, Fabio Aru - all guys who could go well on this finish too, Nibali being one that could take advantage on the descent to the last kilometre.

Adam Yates at 50/1, Jarlinson Pantano at 50/1, Alexis Vuillermoz at 40/1, Tom Jelte Slagter at 80/1 (he was looking good on stage 2), Jesus Herrada at 80/1... all could be involved, all could have chances. As could Sylvain Chavanel, he's 125/1 and had his day of fun today riding through the town of his birth, but he did say today that he would like to try something tomorrow, whether it will work or not is another question. Big price though for an interest on roads he likes.  

 Paddy Power have priced it up a little wrong I think, giving sprinters far more of a chance of making it to contest the finish than I think they have. Second favourite is Sagan, and although he's flying and would win maybe on the uphill sprint, its what comes before it that's the problem. I fancy Alaphilippe, Valverde, Martin and Bardet to be involved though at the finish and at the prices, Martin, Valverde and Bardet are my picks, with an outside longshot bet on Chavanel and Slagter. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Romain Bardet at 33/1 with PP paying 5 places

0.5pts each-way on Dan Martin at 12/1 with Bet365

0.75pts each-way on Alejandro Valverde at 7/1 with Various

0.2pts each-way on Sylvain Chavanel at 125/1 with PP paying 5 places

0.2pts each-way on Tom-Jelte Slagter at 80/1 with PP paying 5 places

Matchbets

Slagter to beat Vichot - 3pts at 5/6

Kelderman to beat Gallopin - 2pts at evens

Froome to beat Mollema, Martin to beat Rodriguez, Costa to beat T Dumoulin - 2pts on the treble at 5/2, all with Bet365

Martin to beat Rodriguez and Kelderman to beat Mollema - 2pts at evens with PP