Amstel Gold 2019

Details: Published on Saturday, 20 April 2019 18:01

Amstel Gold Race 2019

Maastricht to Berg en Terblijt

Sunday 21st April, 265.7kms

The 54th running of the Amstel Gold Race starts in Maastricht Sunday, as focus switches from the Belgo/French cobbles to first the hills of Holland, and then the Ardennes, culminating in 'La Doyenne', Liege-Bastogne-Liege on Sunday week.

As always, it's a quality field lining up for this race, so many riders who are in with a chance of victory, depending on how it goes on the day. This is always a good race, the course is very challenging with a lot of climbing, narrow, dangerous roads and an even longer distance of 265.7kms this year, the longest edition in the last 15 years (maybe more, that's as far back as PCS have distances!)

Valgren agr18

They have stuck with the major change to the finish of the race they introduced last year which means we won't see them take on the Cauberg on the last lap, as used to be the case. But the organisers have also made another change to the finale of the race this year to try to spice things up a little more.

In the final lap of 16 kilometers, course director Leo van Vliet makes a change in 2018. “With this change in the final of the Amstel Gold Race we search for more narrow roads to make it harder to control the race for the bunch”; according to Van Vliet. After the climb of the Geulhemmerberg the bunch will no longer descend on the wide road of the Rasberg towards Maastricht, but will descend off the Kuitenbergweg that is parallel to the Rasberg towards the Amby district (Maastricht).

Once the riders are down the descent, the riders will ride via the Molenweg and the Peutgensweg to cross the Rasberg towards Bemelen. After the climb of the Bemelerberg the riders will not go straight on, passing the famous windmill of Wolfshuis, but take a left turn in the village Gasthuis towards Terblijt.

In Terblijt the route continues via the Rijnsbergerweg to end up at the Sibberweg again for the last kilometre. “In 2017 we saw that a simple change in the route led to a more attractive race. With this new change the contenders for the victory have to find a good position before they enter the final or already left the bunch for an attack”; says Leo van Vliet.

This is a relatively new race on the 'Classics' calendar, first run in 1966, but it is now the most important race in the Netherlands in the whole year. There may be some debate as to whether a race as young as this is entitled to call itself a 'Classic', but it is one of the key races of the season, especially for the 'Ardennes' specialists and kicks off the trilogy of races that also includes Fleche-Wallone on Wednesday and Liege-Bastogne-Liege on Sunday week.

It's a tough course littered with 35 climbs that usually suits the punchier types more than outright climbers and sprinters, as a look at recent winners shows. There's over 4,000 metres of climbing in all, who said Holland was flat?! It's also a course that has had it's fair share of criticism, being run on many narrow, urban roads, prompting David Millar to christen it the 'Tour of the Roundabouts'

Recent winners

Last year's race saw Valgren get sweet revenge for 2016 when he once again got involved in the winning move, but this time he was only up against Romain Kreuziger and easily outsprinted him for the win. The man in 3rd place, Gasparotto was admirably delighted for Valgren, given he had beaten him two years earlier. Sagan led home the chasers ahead of Valverde some 19" later.

2017 saw a very strong Michal Kwiatkowski play with the opposition a few times on earlier climbs before finally attacking hard with 5.3kms to go.. Philippe Gilbert went after him, but again, we saw the rest of the group look at each other and pass the buck.. and they were away. The finish was incredible though, as Kwiatkowski jumped early and seemed to have it wrapped up, gaining about 2 bike lengths with 100m to go, but he tied up badly and Gilbert came past him with ease in the last 20m.

2016 was another strange finish when Enrico Gasparotto attacked hard on the Cauberg, passed a tiring Tim Wellens and Michael Valgren came across to him. Behind, they all looked at each other again, and just let Gasparotto cruise to victory ahead of Valgren.. Colbrelli powered home in the sprint to take 3rd.

2015 saw Gilbert and Matthews attack quite early on the Cauberg with 2.5kms to go and get a small gap, but Kwiatkowski and Costa came after them. By the top of the steeper part of the Cauberg Valverde and a small group including Dan Martin, Gallopin and Alaphilippe joined them to make a group of 17 which fought out the sprint finish. Matthews and Gilbert payed for their earlier exertions though and Kwiatkowski outsprinted them to his first win in the Rainbow Jersey.

Gilbert won it in 2014 with a powerhouse attack at the bottom of the Cauberg, attacking away from Simon Gerrans, Valverde and Kwiatkowski. He held it all the way to the line with indecision and fatigue holding the chasers back. Jelle Vanendert attacked out of the chasing group to take a commendable second.

Romain Kreuziger won in 2013 after an audacious attack from the remnants of the break he was in, just as the peloton were about to make the catch with 7km to go. Gilbert attacked on the Cauberg with Gerrans and Valverde in pursuit, but even though he rode his legs off they were swamped on the line and Gilbert ended up in 5th place, with Valverde hanging on for 2nd from Gerrans.

The Route

The race starts in Maastricht and heads north crossing the river Maas and although the finish to the route might be slightly different to the past, it's a typical Amstel Gold course with three loops around the Limburg area of the Netherlands. It's 4.7kms longer than last year's course and has the same number of climbs as last year, 35 in total. They only do the Cauberg three times though, the final passage of the Cauberg comes with 18kms still to go.

The first part of the course, the blue line on the map below, takes them north and east away from Maastricht and before they reach the second part of the race on the loops around the finish they will have passed four climbs, the first one coming up after just 10.5kms. None of which are too hard at all, around 4% average, but the Berseweg is one of the longer hills of the day at 2.7kms. It's too early in the race to have any impact on the result though.

They then head on to the green loop, passing over the Cauberg for the first of three passes and through the finish line, before heading to the south-eastern-most point of the race. Here they go on to a little loop and do three more hills, including the Camerig, the longest hill of the day at 4.4kms (avg 4.4%).

They then head back north and rejoin the blue route temporarily, once again taking them over the Cauberg and on to the red loop. This loop also races on some of the previous roads but cuts a tighter circle than the green route. It does take them over the Bemelerberg for the first time though, which is 900m at 4.5%, but is significant in that it's the last hill they will climb on the final lap as they have cut out the Cauberg.

The Cauberg used to play a huge part in deciding the winner as its 800m distance averages 6.5% but hits a max of 12.8%. This year, as the last pass comes just 17.7kms from the finish, it might still help decide the winner, but possibly because a small group will get away, from where the winner will come from.

The hills carry on coming thick and fast, with the St. Remigiusstraat Huls one of the toughest - 900m at an average of 7.8% with a max of 10.7%. The Eyserbosweg, which they hit with less than 30kms to go, is the steepest of the day, averaging 9.3% for 900m, hitting a max of 17%.. and just before that they have the Kruisberg which averages 8.8% for 600m, with a max of 15.5%

The final circuit, the black one, is just 16 kilometers, as described above already is slightly different to last year's finish, which was also different to the finale's of recent years, not finishing on the Cauberg. After the climb of the Geulhemmerberg they descend off the Kuitenbergweg towards the Amby district (Maastricht).

They then go over the Molenweg and the Peutgensweg to cross the Rasberg towards Bemelen. After the climb of the Bemelerberg the riders will not pass the famous windmill of Wolfshuis this year, but take a left turn towards Terblijt. In Terblijt the route continues via the Rijnsbergerweg to end up at the Sibberweg again, climbing slightly from about 3.5kms to 1.2kms to go, then turn left for the last kilometre which is basically flat and straight.

Route Map

Amstel 2018 map

Profile

The Hills of Amstel Gold

AG 2017 hills

Contenders and Favourites

Well, I didn't expect to be writing this a few weeks back, but Mathieu Van Der Poel is the 7/2 favourite for the race and it's hard to see who is going to stop him from adding Amstel Gold to Brabantse Pijl and Dwars Door in his conquests this season. He was extraordinary again on Wednesday, as I put it in a tweet, it's like watching a junior race, attacking with such reckless abandon and making all the others look like U14 riders against him.

He attacked with 63kms to go, seemingly just to test the bunch out and had them all strung out in one long line, with seasoned pros being shelled out the back. He attacked again and again and unlike a lot of guys like Van Avermaet, Valverde and more he actually spots dangerous moves and chases them down, case in point being the move by Alaphilippe and Wellens that ultimately won the race for him.

Is there any chink in his armour? Well, he hasn't really been tested in a race like Amstel over 35 climbs, climbs which in the last 40kms eight of them come on average every 4.6kms. He can't chase every attack, you'd think, and there are sure to be lots of attacks in the last 40kms of this race, as no one wants to go to the line with him, or even Alaphilippe or Matthews. But he says that Amstel suits him perfectly and he can't wait to race in it. And it really is hard to look past him being involved in the placings, but the 7/2 is a ridiculous price again, really hard to back him at that price. If you can get 5 or 6/1 on Betfair maybe he is worth it, but 7/2 is a big risk in such a tough race.

DQS have a few cards to play again, with Julian Alaphilippe their top card to play of course. There were question marks over his condition after that hard crash in Itzulia, but he answered those emphatically with his attacks late in the race to set up the final group of four. He did look strong, he looked comfortable, but having said that, he failed to find an attack as everyone expected on the final climb, and never looked like beating MVDP in the sprint.

I think he's almost a cert for Fleche on Wednesday, he will be a major player in this race too though. His attacks tend to shred races and we are sure to see him go for it on one of the last three climbs, maybe even as early as the Cauberg with 19kms to go. The question is, has he fully recovered from the crash, or will the toll of a much tougher race, with a lot more climbing nullify his abilities somewhat? If he is close to 100%, then it's a question of who can go with him on the final climbs. And we know he has a decent kick on him for the finish if in a small group.

They also have four-time winner Philippe Gilbert in their line-up and he looks like he's back in form judging how he destroyed the field in Paris-Roubaix. He was active all day, even trying to get in that early break that was a feature of the first half of the race, and was attentive to Politt's move when he jumped in the feed zone. He then put the hammer down on the cobbles in a vintage Gilbert fashion and there was only going to be one winner in the Velodrome.

Ably assisted by Remi Cavagna, Mikkel Honoré, Dries Devenyns, Pieter Serry and Petr Vakoc, Gilbert could be a real danger here again, with all eyes on Alap. I can see Gilbert trying a move on the Cauberg the final time up it, with Alap just sitting there and everyone else just watching Alap. He might get a few come with him, and if it's a good mix of strong riders and teams then they might not be caught again. He was 25/1 for Roubaix, he's 20/1 for this, might be a big price for a four-time winner if he makes it five on Sunday.

I think Michael Matthews rode a great race in the Brabantse Pijl on Wednesday, and he was very unlucky not to come away with a podium place. He was attentive to the attacks on the Holsteide by Alap and Wellens and hung there admirably as they tried to shake him off on the Ijskelderlaan. His move on the final climb up to the 1km to go mark was excellent I thought though, going to the front and just keeping the pace high and it nullified the attacks from the other three.

I actually thought he would comfortably go on to win the sprint in the end after that move, but it obviously had taken a lot out of him in the previous 12kms as he was shattered in the sprint. But also he was chopped up badly by Alap in the sprint and finished last of the four, I think he might well have followed MVDP through as he was on his wheel and should probably have finished 2nd or 3rd.

He has come close here in the past too, with 3rd in 2015 and 5th in 2016, but last year in the newer course he was well off the pace, down in 24th, some 2'11" behind Valgren. That Sunweb team is a weak team though and if there are any splits that he misses, I can't see them pulling him back.

Max Schacmann looks like a man tailor-made for this sort of race too, and his form has been sensational in recent weeks. Three stage wins in Itzulia, including the ITT on the first day and two superb wins on hilly finishes, he looks very ready for this challenge and should be the main card that Bora play on Sunday. But... the only time he's done this race, in 2017, saw him finish over 12' down on the winner..

He races all sorts of ways though, he's another that's really exciting to watch, he doesn't always wait about for a sprint finish, he attacks on late hills, he attacks on descents and he's not afraid to go balls-out and try to solo to the finish ahead of a hesitant pack. It makes him unpredictable and a wild card that can just go for it at any point and I wouldn't be surprised to see him try something like that, knowing that they have Sagan who can sit in the wheels and save himself for the finale, if it comes back together.

Peter Sagan should be on the shortlist for this race too, but his form has been so patchy and poor (by his extraordinary standards) that it's hard to put any confidence in him. Apparetly LBL is his big target of the spring, it's a race he wants to add to his palmares, so the races so far have been training for LBLBut will this be another sub-par performance as he fine-tunes himself for LBL, or will he be nearer 100% Sagan finally? Hard to know..

Tim Wellens is another to watch out for, he showed in BP that his form is coming and he's ready for the Ardennes challenges. 3rd in OHN, 3rd in BP on Wednesday, he helped blow things up with Alap. 6th last year in this race, he came home in the favourites group with Sagan and Valverde, 19" behind Valgren. He is good at attacking hard on tough hills, he's good at descending, but how can he win this race? It's hard to see him go solo from this field, and it's hard to see him win a sprint against many of those likely to go with him if it's a small group.

Lotto have a good team with them here and Bjorg Lambrecht is another to keep an eye on, he has been riding really well of late, with 2nd in stage 2 of Itzulia and a solo 5th in BP behind the winning foursome, escaping the peloton on the tough, final climb. It would suit him better if it had a hill finish though I think, so he's one to keep an eye on for FW and LBL instead maybe. Add in Jelle Vanendert, who has finished 2nd twice in this race and 10th last year and Armée, Marczynski, TVDS and Monfort and it's a very strong team they have here and they are sure to be involved quite a lot.

Sky have Michal Kwiatkowski, another former winner of this race, having outsprinted everyone in 2015, beating Valverde and Matthews by millimetres. He was coming in to some good form of late, with 3rd overall in Paris-Nice followed by 3rd in MSR and then finished 3rd on each of the first two stages of Itzulia before being caught up in that crash. He's another to keep an eye on, as he is very capable of following the likes of MVDP, Alap and Wellens when they start attacking hard.

Has the crash knocked him back a bit though? He didn't look too hurt but pulled out so it clearly affected him somewhat. Supported by Dylan Van Baarle, Mikal Golas, Wout Poels, David De La Cruz, Diego Rosa and Eddie Dunbar, it's a formidable-looking squad who are capable of stringing this race out and blowing it up when they want to. Dunbar is lightly raced this year, with only 10 race days so far, but these are the sorts of races he'll be looking forward to, he got in the break last year and put on an impressive show, being the strongest up a lot of the late hills and was only reeled in with 16.6kms to go. I expect to see him putting in a big ride again on Sunday.

Alejandro Valverde leads a strong-looking Movistar team too, and he will be desperate to add a 1 to his impressive set of results in this race. 2nd twice, he's also finished 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th over the years, with the 5th coming last year being part of the first group to chase Valgren's escapees home. A superb 8th in the Ronde, he surprisingly has only one win to his name this season, the stage to Jabel Hafeet in the UAE Tour. Is he losing his touch? Is father time finally catching up with him? It could well be the case, and I just know that if he, Alaphilippe, MVDP or Sagan come to the finish together, my money would not be on Bala any more.

What about Astana then? Started the season in unbelievable fashion, they have a good team here too with Alexey Lutsenko, Omar Fraile, Luis Leon Sanchez, Gorka Izagirre and Jakob Fuglsang all perfectly capable of pulling off a big result here. Lutsenko and Fuglsang are probably in the best form to get something out of a race like this, but I just wonder is Lutsenko starting to come off the boil a little bit, whereas Fuglsang just seems to be getting stronger..

1st in Andalucia, 2nd in Strade Bianche, 3rd in Tirreno, 4th in Itzulia, it's a pretty amazing season he's had so far. 8th last year, he kicked things off with a big attack 16.7kms to go and was right in the mix with Valverde and co, but when his team-mate Valgren attacked with 2.2kms to go he just sat back and blocked. I think he will be a big player here on Sunday and at 25/1 with Skybet, paying 4 places, he's worth a bet I think.

Others who are definitely worth a mention are the likes of former winner Enrico Gasparotto (3rd here last year too) - his form was nothing to write home about so far this season, then he popped up with a fine 7th place in BP on Wednesday, and this time of the year is when he comes alive. His Dimension Data team are quite strong, with last year's first and second also in the squad.

Michael Valgren was superb last season, capping a spring Classics campaign with a powerful win here. His form this year has been abysmal in comparison though, you couldn't back him with any confidence here. And they also have Romain Kreuziger, 2nd last year, winner in 2013, he's another who seems to love it around here, but his form has been pretty poor so far this season too. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the mix in the last 20kms though.

Alberto Bettiol, Greg Van Avermaet, Sonny Colbrelli, Dylan Teuns, Oliver Naesen, Tadej Pogacar, Matteo Trentin, Daryl Impey, Valentin Madouas, Diego Ulissi, Jay McCarthy, Dylan Teuns, Matej Mahoric.. all are possibilities too depending on how the race is run, with Pogacar and Madouas two potential young dark horses.

It's a really tough race to call again this weekend.. MVDP is the elephant in the room, in that we all know he's probably going to just smash them all to bits and win, but in a race where anything can happen even the 9/2 that PP/Betfair are offering looks just too skinny.

I think Astana will play a big part in deciding the outcome of this race again, and I think Fuglsang could be their man this year. Philippe Gilbert could sneak off with a late break while they are all watching Alaphilippe and Max Schachmann is in such good form and has the skills to win from a number of different scenarios that I want to be with him too. And as he's 600/1 I can't resist a nibble on Dunbar for a bit of fun. But I also wouldn't be surprised to see it finish MVDP, Alaphilippe and Wellens in that order either..