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Published on Thursday, 28 March 2019 16:25

E3 Binckbank Classic

Friday 29th March, 204kms

The E3 Binckbank Classic, or the E3 Harelbeke to most of us, kicks off the 'Flanders Week' with Gent Wevelgem coming two days later on Sunday and the king of the Belgian Classics, the Ronde Van Vlaanderen on April 7th.  

The E3 Harelbeke has been going since 1958 and it was named after the old E3 motoroway, now known as the A14. The race has more or less kept the name, but now adds the name of the sponsor, Binckbank, the company who has been sponsoring the Binckbank Tour, the old Eneco Tour for the last two years.

It is sometimes referred to as the 'baby Flanders' and is a fantastic preparation for the Ronde as it is over a vast majority of the same terrain and cobbled climbs, including the Paterberg and the Oude Kwaremont, althought they do them in reverse order in the E3.

Last year's race saw Nikki Terpstra take a superb solo win, riding away from his QuickStep team-mate Yves Lampaert with 24kms to go. The race had been very dramatic, with a crash that involed Demare, Vanmarcke and Naesen causing a split that QSF were keen to take advantage of, and that helped queue up the eventual break that went on to take the win.

There was a great battle between the QSF duo out front and the likes of GVA, Sagan, Benoot and the rest, but they were anchored down by a great team job being done by Gilbert and Stybar. In fact, Gilbert went on to win the sprint for 2nd, having saved a lot of energy sitting in. 

Greg Van Avermaet took a fantastic win in an action-packed race in 2017, outsprinting Philippe Gilbert and Oliver Naesen, the three having made a break for it a long way from home and a final selection of three the final time up the Kwaremont.

Kwiatkowski won in 2016, making it two wins in a row for Team Sky, following Geraint Thomas's superb win in 2015, while Sagan took victory in 2014. Fabian Cancellara was a brilliant winner in 2013, simply riding off the front of a quality leading group with 35kms to go at the top of the Kwaremont, similar to how Thomas rode away from them all with Stybar in 2015. Sagan has been 2nd in 2016, 2nd in 2013, 1st in 2014 and should have been 3rd in 2015 but he tied up so badly in the last 4kms he was caught and passed by the chasers.

The Route

Pretty much the same course as last year with just some minor detour - an out and back loop that heads out east and then comes back west to start the criss-crossing of the hellingen around Oudenarde and Ronse after around 110kms. It's usually the combination of the winds, climbs and cobbles that causes the race to be blown to pieces all over the countryside over the last 100kms. 

The Katteberg, which was replaced with the Wolvenberg as the first obstacle of the day last year is back, they meet it after just 21kms (750m at 6%). The next obstacle comes much sooner this year, after just 68kms, with the climb of La Houppe.

There are then thirteen more Hellingen to get over in the 94kms between La Houpe after 93kms and the Tiegemberg which comes with just 18.5kms to go. It's when they hit the Taiaenberg with 134km gone that things really start to heat up - the 9.5% average over the 1250m usually causes the first real significant splits in any race that goes over it. 

The next 5 Hellingen will see some more pressure being put on at the front and the peloton will be wittled down hill by hill. But it's when they hit the Paterberg and the Kwaremont within 2.8kms of each other that the final selection will probably be made, a reverse order to what they do in the Ronde, when the Kwaremont comes first.

The Paterberg may only be 500m but it averages 12.5% and is particularly steep and rough near the top, while the Oude Kwaremont is cobbled for 1500m of its 2200m although its gradient averages 4.2%. You reach the top of the Kwaremont near the cafe and could be forgiven for thinking that might be it, but the hill keeps going for more than a kilometre after that and the cobbles are particularly rough in the last 500m. It's sometimes the case that the real gaps are made in this section as some riders are on the limit after the pitch up to the cafe and the stronger men press on over the rough last 500m. 

The 30kms between the Kapelberg and the Tiegemberg will be crucial though, as it takes them over the Paterberg and Kwaremont. From there it is a relatively straight and flat run in to the finish in Harelbeke with the finish outside the E3 stadium.

Contenders and Favourites

Decueninck Quick Step did it again last Saturday, Alaphilippe ripped the race apart with devastating acceleration at the top of the Poggio, where only a handful of the best riders in the world could stay with him. That was after Zdenek Stybar had beasted most of the climb at the front of the peloton, climbing like a Colombian with rocket up his arse, and in doing so, helped set the second fastest ascent ever of the Poggio.. That time was only 4" slower than Fondriest and Jalabert's EPO (and everything else) fueled rampage back in 1995. 

Alaphilippe was so strong, and so confident he could take them all no matter what way the race came to a conclusion, they were not bothered about the fact they were blowing Viviani out the back door with their pace. In fact, they blew everybody out the back door more or less, expect for Sagan, Naesen, WVA, Trentin and Bala. Mohoric and Nibali came back on the descent, Nibali setting a record time for the descent in the process, but Dumoulin and Matthews just couldn't make it and finished 11th and 12th. 

We had desperate bad luck with John Degenkolb, he was only about 100m behind the leaders starting the descent of the Poggio when he unshipped his chain. Rather incredibly, considering all the problems AquaBlue had last year with their 3T bikes, he had chosen to ride with just one front chainring.. as a result, he couldn't pop the chain back up like you would when you drop it with two chainrings..

He reckons he'd have caught them, I reckon he'd have come very close to taking that sprint for us. Having said that though, I'd have had money on Trentin with 4kms to, but somehow he managed to screw up his chances completely, finishing last in the group of 10. I'd have been pretty pissed with him too if I'd backed him. Sagan was just below his top level, being able to go with Alap, just, but didn't have a kick left in him for the sprint, he had to settle for 4th.

Michal Kwiatkowski came very close to taking his second MSR, but this time he didn't have the sprint to beat Alap, he took the 3rd step on the podium though. The big surprises were Oliver Naesen sprinting to 2nd and Wout Van Aert finishing 6th in his first go at a 291km race.. 

And so on to the cobbles again. And we're probably going to be looking at a small pool of similar riders again for it, the top 15 or so in the betting. Oliver Naesen has been installed the joint 11/2 favourite with Peter Sagan, a phrase I didn't predict myself writing on this a week ago.. Yes, he was strong in MSR, and yes, he was strong in Paris-Nice, but 11/2? He was 10th in Omloop, and hasn't won a big race like this yet in his career, but he is getting close.. 4th and 3rd in this race for the last two years, he's been making the right moves, just missing the winning moves. 

But to go on to win this is a big ask now, he'll really have to up his game and ride away from all of these guys really, and I can't see that happening. So I'm definitely not backing him at a paltry 11/2, I'd want about 16/1 on him. He has to take on the might of DQS, Sagan, Terpstra and the rest.. 

To show just how much strength in depth DQS have, they have four riders in the top 11 of the betting. Philippe Gilbert leads the betting for them though at 12/1, and he is a big danger for sure to the favourites. Capable of a late attack while the others are on the limit after reeling in an attack from another of the DQS boys, Gilbert has come very close over the last two years, finishing 2nd twice to Terpstra and GVA. he is perfectly suited to this course and could well carry on DQS's incredible run of results. 

Yves Lampaert is the same price as Gilbert, because he's basically almost like a carbon copy of Gilbert... and he's just 12/1 because these are the kinds of races where the likes of Lampaert are given the freedom to race for themselves, rather than sacrifice themselves for the team. He's been ever-present in all the big races so far though, with 7th in OHN, 5th in KBK, 11th in SB and worked hard for Alap's win in MSR last Saturday.. His record isn't great on paper in this race, but he has been put to work here in the past for Terpstra, Gilbert and Trentin, will he be let off the leash this year with no clear leader in the team?

And they also have two massive engines in Zdenek Stybar and Bob Jungels, who are 18/1 and 25/1 respectively. Stybar was 9th last year, but he was one of the 'stoppers' from QS that disrupted the chase of Terpstra, while in 2015 he came home 2nd on his own, 25" behind Thomas. You can be sure Stybar will be doing his best to blow things apart again, and he might even go with a small group that gets away and fights out the finish.. but he will struggle to win a sprint against the likes of Sagan. Jungels will need a lot of luck I think to be able to go clear, I think he'll be working for the others. 

So DQS are absolutely stacked with quality, but they are now facing a Peter Sagan who is starting to look a little bit more like Peter Sagan again. He's getting better, stronger, and more desperate for a big result. A week of training lost and 4kgs lost because of sickness a few weeks back, he almost looked back to his best in MSR. A few days recovery and he should be starting to come to his peak for the cobbled challenges to come. 2nd here in 2016 and 2013, 1st in 2014, but he's not had a great run in this race the last two years, coming home in 26th, 3'23" down on Terpstra last year. 

The thing is now with Sagan, there are a lot of riders around his level, unless he starts to get back to his super-human level. A lot of these guys will stay with him on the hellingen and cobbles, but he might just have the fastest sprint at the end if a small group finishes together. But his Bora team are nowhere near as good as DQS's, he might be outnumbered again in the last 30kms of this race Friday. And as much as we'd like to say Sagan doesn't need a team, he can't chase every one of those possible attacks from DQS in the closing kilometres, and he could sit up rather than being leant on, like we've seen him do in the past. 

His old nemesis Greg Van Avermaet is another big danger, he will not be happy that he missed that move on the Poggio last Saturday, all the guys he should be measuring himself against made it, he finished 42nd.. Very close to a win in OHN, winning the sprint for 2nd behind Stybar, he followed that up with a good ride in SB to finish 6th.

He also came very close in that uphill stage finish in Tirreno won by Alap, just didn't have the speed in the sprint. He was also up in the sprint on stage 6 in that silly sprint, also won by Alap, taking 8th, not far off the likes of Viviani, he could be a big danger in this if it comes to a small group sprint.. 

Matteo Trentin seems to be making a habit of messing up winning opportunities, he doesn't really seem to have a good tactical brain, nor does he seem to listen to his earpiece, as he surely is being given advice that he isn't listening to. He is capable of being with the front group when they get to the finish, he's hard to shake off, and depending on who he's up against, he could well win this. But if it turns in to a beast battle between the likes of Stybar, Naesen, Sagan and GVA up the bergs, he might not be able to stick with them. 12/1 is a bit skinny then.

Niki Terpstra is the reigning champ, but no longer with DQS.. He has yet to land a win for Direct Energie, but he has come close - 3rd in KBK and 3rd in Le Samyn, he hit the opening cobbled Classics running. He has the immense power to push hard on the Paterberg and the Kwaremont and strip the lead group down to a handful of riders, but then he'll need to try to get away from them.. That's going to be the problem.. and if it comes to a sprint with Sagan and GVA, he won't beat them - but I think he is capable of a podium at 12/1 with Skybet who are paying 4 places. 

Lotto are light on wins this year, with only 6 wins in total, with 3 of them coming from Tim Wellens early in the year. Injuries to Tiesj Benoot and sickness to Tim Wellens reduced their chances in KBK and SB, the pressure is now on Tiesj Benoot to produce something in the next three weeks to save their Classics season. Benoot has Keukeleire with him, but the rest of the team is pretty lightweight, so he'll probably be on his own in the last 20kms. 5th in 2017, 7th in 2016, he'll be there or thereabouts again on Sunday, but I think it'll be 4th to 10th for him again, maybe one for the 'finishing positions' in play with Bet365. 

Sep Vanmarcke has finished 4th, 5th three times, 7th and 8th in this race, finishing in the top 8 in 6 of the 8 times he's taken part. Always close, but not good enough for a podium finish. He had a terrible day in OHN, he blew up completely and lost the wheel with 42kms to go on the Molenberg, he said afterwards that he didn't know why, but that his heart rate was higher than normal all day.

That is a bit worrying, but as he said, it might have been just a bad day and he'll have had plenty of time since then to try to iron out the issues. He should be good enough for a top 10 too, but I can't see him podiuming. Sebastian Langeveld is in good form this season, but his recent record in this race leaves a lot to be desired, so I don't know if we can trust him to get involved, even at a tempting-looking 66/1.

Wout Van Aert - is there anything he can't do? Not only does he blast his way over the cobbles in OHN and podium in SB, he then goes an makes that elite group of superstars last Saturday in MSR in a race of 291kms. The boy is a superstar, and he will be winning races for years to come. But can he win this? He's got a really good team with him and he'll be perfectly comfortable on the Hellingen, but he will have to maybe try to get away with only 2 or 3 others maximum to give him a chance of victory I think, he won't win a sprint. 

Then you have the likes of Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Sonny Colbrelli, Magnus Cort Neilsen and the other 'tough' sprinters who could make it to the finish with a lead group, depending on how hard the race is run in the last 40kms or so. Out of that lot, I'd like to give John Degenkolb a chance to make up for his disappointment in MSR, but I think it might be just a bit too hard for him when the likes of DQS and Sagan kick off over the Paterberg and Kwaremont. 

Luke Rowe, Ian Stannard and Owain Doull are all in really good shape at the moment too and can play a big part in the outcome of this race, but it's hard to see any of them actually winning it unless things really go fortunately for them. And that's about it really, hard to see any of the others outside that lot getting involved, although there's always someone at 150/1 will pop up in a group of 3 that gets away and lands a podium spot.. 

DQS hold the key of course, they can dictate how the race goes and who attacks, blocks, chases and may even have a mini leadout if 2 or 3 of them are involved in a group of 15 or 20 going to a sprint. GVA will be there, Naesen will be too, and Terpstra, WVA and Vanmarcke can be involved in the battle for the podium. But I have a sneaking suspicion that Peter Sagan is starting to come right at just the right time to hit Flanders and Roubaix with a bang, and this can be his dress rehearsel.

Yes, he's the favourite and some will be put off by his low-key build up to this, but at 11/2 with Skybet paying four places, I think we will get a return on our money at least, and he could very well land the win to make it a good pay day. If he does win, he'll be 7/4 for Flanders.. 

Recommendations:

1.5pts e/w on Peter Sagan at 11/2 with Skybet paying 4 places

1pt e/w on Niki Terpstra at 12/1 with Skybet

Matchbets

Lampaert to beat Jungels, Gilbert to beat Stybar and Sagan to beat Trentin - 2pts at 2.16/1 with Bet365

Terpstra to beat Vanmarcke - 2pts at 11/10 with 365

Stuyven to beat Mohoric and Keukeleire to beat Teunissen - 2pts at 7/4 with 365