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Published on Saturday, 26 May 2018 22:12

Giro d'Italia St 21

Roma to Roma

Sunday 27th May, 115kms

The final stage, a 10-lap crit around the streets of Rome that will almost certainly end in a sprint finish. The race is decided by now, but who will take the final stage glory?

So far Viviani has been the king of the sprints, winning 4 out of the 5 sprints we've had so far, with Sam Bennett taking the other one. Bennett has been three times, Marezcko and Modolo have been second too. Bennett has carried on with his amazing record of finishing in the top 3 in every stage so far, extending his record in sprints from last year's Giro to 11 top 3s in the last 11 sprints in the Giro.

Viviani had one bad day, when he couldn't stay with the pack over the little hills, but came roaring back the very next day to pounce, diving through the pack at the last minute with all the skills of the track cyclist that he is. Then followed that up with another win on stage 17, with a master display of  wheel surfing in the last 500m, getting the jump on Bennett and hanging on. 

So he has survived the hills and is about to be crowned the points champion, can he finish it in style? 

The Route

Not a lot to say about this route, it is an almost flat circuit of 11.5kms that they do 10 times around the streets of Rome. The start and finish of the circuit are on the Via dei Fori Imperiali, halfway between the Colosseum and Piazza Venezia, making for a spectacular backdrop. The first half of the circuit goes through the old city, via Circus Maximus to the Colosseum, while the second half is through more straight, open roads. The road narrows a little with 2kms to go and they go over some pave with about 1600m for 350m. 

As they hit the 1km to go mark they go around the colliseum and on to the final straight which is 700m long on an 8m wide road. 

Contenders

This is pretty straight-forward you'd think, it's either Bennett or Viviani - no one else looks like getting a look in. Viviani has been in incredible form, winning 4 stages so far, but he has been fortuitious in quite a few of them as far as I'm concerned. I think if we had Kittel, Gaviria or even the likes of Groenewegen, Greipel or Cavendish were here, I think he'd have won a lot less, maybe even no stages.. 

Bennett has looked the faster sprinter of late, Viviani has suffered a lot, maybe more than Bennett in the last week, I just have an inkling that Bennett might get this one right and in the long, wide finishing straight here, he could come late to pounce past Viviani. Bora totally screwed up the last sprint stage opportunity by working like idiots for most of the stage, and then they had no one left to help Bennett out at the finish. He was clearly the fastest at the finish, his disappointment spoke volumes, he really knew he had the winning of that stage. Viviani has the jersey sewn up, he just needs to finish in the top 5 to take that home, no mistakes, no crashes.. Of course he'd like to win the stage, and take an incredible 5th stage win, but maybe his motivation just isn't as high as Bennett's.

And then it's a dogfight between Van Poppel, Modolo, Gibbons, Bonifazio, Debuscherre, Sbaragli and Venturini for the other spot on the podium, and you really can't call any of them with any confidence. Modolo has been utter shite for the whole Giro, Gibbons is a 6th to 10th place rider, as is Debuscherre, Sbaragli and Venturini. Bonifazio has looked the fastest of the rest in the last two sprints, and the 10/1 is a bit interesting. 

There may be other powerhouses like Tony Martin, Adam Hansen, Max Schachmann, Mads Pedersen and Zdenek Stybar who will try to take off in the closing kilometres and hope to hold on, but it's unlikely to happen. 

So last chance saloon, I think that Bennett is the value bet of the two, and Bonifazio is about the only one that I can trust to make the top 3, Van Poppel might be 4th, Modolo 5th..  

Recommendations:

2pts win on Sam Bennett at 2/1 with Betfair

0.5pts e/w on Niccolo Bonifazio at 10/1 with Bet365 

Matchbets

Modolo to beat Debuscherre and Planckaert to beat Pedersen - 2pts at 5/4

Barbin to beat Boivin and Gibbons to beat Sbaragli - 2pts at 6/4