Tour of Flanders 2018

Sunday 1st April, 266.5kms

Gilbert Flanders 2017

The pièce de résistance of the Flanders week, the jewel in the crown.. The warm-ups were interesting to say the least but now it's the big one.. 266kms around the hills and cobbles of Flanders. 

It's the 102nd edition of the Ronde Van Vlaanderen, and for all intents and purposes it's the same route as last year from the organisers. They are sticking to the big changes they made last year, the shift to the east and are starting again in Antwerp, and are also sticking with a run over the Muur-Kapelmuur with 103kms to go, which was re-introduced last year after a 5-year absence. 

But the climax of the race remains the same, with the familiar and fantastic criss-cross of roads around Ronse, Kwaremont and Oudenaard, with the very familiar charge over the Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg before the long chase back to the finish in Oudenaard.  

What a race we were treated to last year, with the epic solo win by Philippe Gilbert. It all kicked off when Tom Boonen ripped it up the Muur-Kapelmuur, pulling a little group of about 13 riders with him, that included Gilbert, Trentin, SVM, Kristoff, Stuyven, Coquard and Démare.. At that point, GVA was a long, long way down the pack, he must have had some incident or accident on the lead in to the hill, and Sagan also missed the move. 

 

 

Sagan tried to bridge, but failed and was swallowed up by the peloton soon after as it regrouped. As they hit the Kanareiberg with 71kms to go the gap was 1 minute between Gilbert's group and the peloton, and at the top, with Debusschere ripping it up the climb behind it was just 42". As they hit the Kwaremont for the second time with 56kms to go, the gap was down to just 32", as Trentin and Boonen led Gilbert in to the cobbled section. Suddenly Gilbert put the hammer down, SVM couldn't stay with him, Trentin came around him and slowed it down, and Gilbert was gone. 

By the time they came out of the Kwaremont, the gap was back up to a minute, and Gilbert went in to TT mode. As they entered the Taaienberg, Tommeke had a mechanical and dropped out, Sagan attacked and Naesen and Gilbert went with him and were soon joined by Trentin and Offredo. The last time up the Kwaremont with just 17.5kms to go, Gilbert held on to a 59" lead when suddenly Sagan got caught up in a piece of clothing hanging from the barriers and went down with GVA and Naesen. 

 

Sagan Crash RVV

GVA got up quickly and rejoined Offredo, Felline, Terpstra and Trentin who had avoided the crash as they had been dropped. GVA accelerated on the Paterberg and only Terpstra could stay with him, they collected Van Baarle and rode in pursuit of Gilbert. But Gilbert held on to comfortably take the win, holding his bike aloft as he crossed the line. Behind, GVA won the sprint from Terpstra, with an exhausted Van Baarle in 4th. Kristoff won the sprint for 5th ahead of Modolo and Degenolb, some 53" back.  

Peter Sagan won this in tremendous style in 2016 by such a large margin he was able to pull wheelies after the finish line. Alexander Kristoff was an impressive winner of the race in 2015, escaping with Niki Terpstra 28kms from home and holding their advantage despite a chase from Sagan and Van Avermaet from the top of the Paterberg. 

 

Dwars Door Vlaanderen..

What an amazing race we had in Dwars Door Vlaanderen on Wednesday, there was so much happening it was hard to keep up. So much for my prediction of it being a sprint finish, the extreme weather saw to that as the race blew up with about 70kms to go as soon as they hit the hills, with lots and lots of riders struggling. Yves Lampaert won it in tremendous style, the smartest, strongest and calmest rider at the finish. It was quite a surprise podium, with Lampaert winning at 22/1, Teunissen 2nd at 150/1, Vanmarcke 3rd at 20/1 and EBH 4th at 125/1. 

Van Avermaet and Benoot tried, they had several digs to try to get away, but were brought back each time by the supremely strong QSF team, with Stybar and Terpstra chasing everything down. The sprinters packed it in pretty early, all bar Degenkolb and Modolo who finished 15th and 34th respectively, in the group 2'42" behind the winner. Stybar jumped away to take 6th, 29" down, a second ahead of Benoot, with GVA, Terpstra, Stuyven and Valverde a further 19" back. Yep, Valverde, who rode an amazing race, as usual, attacking frequently, and was one of the reasons that the whole race broke up, he kept pushing on the hills when they were all on the limit. And Quintana and Bardet finished, in the big group 6'47" down.  It was a whitewash for the bets, not often that happens, but disappointingly, two in a row now, after a profitable E3.. back to the drawing board for Flanders then...

 

The Route

The race is starting again in Antwerp rather than Brugges, Antwerp paying €400,000 for the priviledge, twice what Brugges was paying. The race is also another 6kms longer than last year's race, 11kms longer than two years ago. After starting in Antwerp, they now head south-west to take them to Oudenaard and as they approach the town they hit the first stretches of pavé, the Lippenhoevstraat after 86kms and the Paddestraat just 2kms later. Then it's through Oudenaard and on to the more familiar loops and the decisive section of the course again.

They then head out towards the Kwaremont, but on a different road to the one they will be coming back on for the final kilometres of the race, this time heading out south of the river Oude. The first hill they hit after 121kms will be the first passage of the Oude Kwaremont, generally taken at a pretty sedate pace compared to the next two passages, and that's followed 11kms later by the Kortekeer, introduced last year. 

5kms later they go over the Edelareberg, a new climb this year that replaces the Eikenberg because of roadworks, it's 1500m long at 4.2% average. They continune on the twisting, criss-crossing loop south-east of Oudenaarde, where they take in more of the 'Hellingen' or cobbled climbs, including the Wolveberg and Leberg, but these are just appetisers to the main course still to come. They also cross the Berendries after 155kms, then take a completely different route to 2016, and instead of going over the Valkenberg they head south-east towards Gerardsbergen and take on the Tenbosse and legendary Muur-Kappelmuur of Gerardsbergen, making a welcome return to the race. 

They then loop back west and head on to the decisive part of the race, making their second ascent up the Oude Kwaremont after 211kms, meaning there are now just 55kms left to race, and the pace is now 'full gas', This is followed just 4km later by the first passage of the Paterberg. There might be a selection made on the Kwaremont or Paterberg, but usually the favourites tend to wait for the next time around as there are still 50kms to go, but we've seen already in some races this year that riders are prepared to attack earlier and from unexpected places, and this was of course where Gilbert made his move last year. 

koppenbergJust 6kms later though we should see some fireworks when they hit the Koppenberg. I have ridden this a few times and there are some key points as to why it can be decisive. First, they come to it very fast on a downhill section of road. Then it's a sharp right turn in to a really narrow funnel. The barriers stick out quite a lot on the road so the width they can pass is only about 3m wide at the entrance.

Secondly, the climb is short, but steep (up to 20%) and rough and it narrows even more the further up it goes, it's barely wide enough for a car. And finally, the cobbles are slippy! Even on a dry day your back wheel struggles to grip the cobbles. And don't even think about standing on the pedals, this is strictly a sit-down climb. (right)

Positioning will be crucial coming in to the Paterberg and it almost always makes a selection of some sort, easing the weaker riders out the back. Those unfortunate to have a touch of wheels, or stall behind someone end up having to run up the rest of the climb and that's the end of their race usually. Just 5km later they hit the Steebeekdries and 3km later the Taaienberg,

Next up is the Kruisberg as they leave Ronse, which is 1km long at 6%. It is dark and quite rough and an important point about this climb is that as you come off the cobbles the road still rises a little more on the regular road surface and the strong men push on here as the weaker flounder to get to the top of the cobbled section.  

Then on to the Oude Kwaremont again.. It's not the steepest at 4.2% average but it does go on for 2.3kms and is very rough - there are large ruts and high ridges in the road, so if you can't get a clean line you bounce all over the road. When you are tired and suffering after 233kms, every cobble can feel like a sledgehammer against your front wheel, jolting and shaking your shoulders and arms.

It's where we can expect the final selection to take shape - five years ago, Cancellara put the hammer down and rode away from all bar Sagan. Four years ago he did the same, taking only Vanmarcke with him and they set off in pursuit of Van Avermaet and Vandenbergh. Three years ago Kristoff and Terpstra pressed home their advantage ahead of the chasing pack, gaining an advantage that wasn't to be reeled in again, and last year it was where Sagan, Van Avermaet and Naesen started to pull away, before their accident.  

What also makes this section so decisive is that just 3km later, with the lactic acid still burning in their legs they face a second ascent of the Paterberg. It may only be 380m long but its 13.7% average gradient at this point in the race rips things apart again, it hits 20% in parts and it's where a lot of riders crack and lose their chances, or where others can make a decisive move.

From the top there's only 13km left to the finish along the familiar run-in to Oudenaarde and the long, flat finishing straight. On such a short run-in, strong men with 20-30" advantage can hold on to their lead, anything less than 20" with a strong chasing pack and you could see it come back together before the finish.

 

The Weather

It looks like being a disappointing day for those who were hoping for a wet and muddy Flanders. The forecast is for a day of sunshine, but it's going to be cold - only 7-8°, no rain and hardly any wind, just 5mph, but it is a northerly wind, meaning it will be a headwind on the way to the finish line. The roads should be mostly dry, although it is forecast to rain most of Friday and there might be some showers Saturday. 

 

Map

RVV map 2018

Profile

RVV profile 2018

Profile - Last 80kms

RVV profile keyhills 2018

Final Loop

ronde 2017 final

 

Contenders and Favourites

I have to start with Peter Sagan - as I basically think this is his race. Yes, he's the favourite, and no suspense being kept to the end here with who I might pick, I'm coming straight out with it. I think he was desperately unlucky last year to crash out like he did, would they have caught Gilbert? It's very likely.. I think the three strongest guys in the race would have closed the gap to about 30" at the top of the Paterberg and would have worked very well together to reel him in. And then he'd have won the sprint.. 

He destroyed the field solo the year before, he is made for this race with it's tough hills, cobbles and war of attrition qualities. Yes, he had a rough E3, and I ruled him out of GW on the back of it, but I thought he rode a very, very smart race in GW, something we don't often see from Sagan.. Too often the restraint isn't there and he wastes energy and gets himself in to tricky situations that can cost him wins. But Sunday in GW he was the invisible man. We barely saw him all race, he let them all fight amongst themselves and let QSF drag him to the line, where his incredible skills and power saw him outsprint Viviani.  

He's had a week off now, avoided the chaos of DDV, where he probably would have just wasted a lot of energy and got very wet and cold, and finished with GVA around 8th place. This is his big goal of the spring campaign, he has made no secret about that and I think he will boss this race on Sunday. He has his main man Oss with him, as well as the power of Burghardt and Bodnar. I think he will not let what happen last year happen again, he will definitely be closer to the front on the Muur and the likes of Gilbert will not be let get a soft lead. When it comes to the last time up the Kwaremont, I expect him to be in the front group and could possibly kick on on the Paterberg again like two years ago. If not, he's happy to go to a sprint, there will be very few left who will be able to beat him. At 3/1, I think he's a good bet. 

Greg Van Avermaet is his big rival of course, these two have been doing battle for years now and it's suprising actually how many times GVA has bested him in sprint finishes. 8th, 7th, 4th, 3rd and 2nd twice, he has yet to win the race that he would most dearly love to win.. Will this year be his year? I think he will not be happy at all with his season so far. Yes, he has that win in Oman, but his record in the Classics so far reads 50th (OHN), 56th (KBK), 34th (Strade Bianche), 17th (MSR), 3rd (E3), 14th (GW) and 8th (DDV). Just one podium will not be what he was looking for at this point in the season. Of course, that can all be forgotten with a win here on Sunday. 

But how has he looked in these races? Well DDV saw him attack multiple times, but he seemed a little sluggish and was not able to ride away from QSF. That of course isn't easy with Stybar and Terpstra after you, but also, I think the cold and wet didn't help, he tends to underperform in poor weather. Also, just how far in to the red did he want to put himself ahead of the big one? It may be that he was watching himself very carefully and decided after a few nice leg stretchers and tests to knock it back a bit and save energy. GW ended in a sprint of course, but you'd have expected him to beat the likes of Stybar, Naesen and Van Aert, he was only 14th in the sprint.

Of course he's going to be there or thereabouts Sunday, he is too good to not be involved at the business end, and it looks like the weather isn't going to be against him too. But I think Sagan has him covered - be it on attacks on the likes of the Kwaremont, or Paterberg, and he will take him in a sprint finish. He says the form is the same as last year and he's confident, but it was also notable that he highlighted the Muur as being an important place to watch this year, after being caught out last year. 

gilbert at front

Philippe Gilbert was excellent last year, he was very prominent all race and even from 100kms out he was right at the front of the race with his nose in the wind (that's him on the right). He helped pull that group away on the Muur, then just left them all behind on the Kwaremont. I can't see him being given so much freedom this year and I think there will be a lot more of the favourites more prominent hitting the Muur this time around, I think a lot of them underestimated the importance of it last year. 

He has been riding very well though this year so far, working for the team and taking fine 2nd places in both Le Samyn and E3 behind his team-mate Terpstra. He also took 5th in OHN in the sprint and was probing and active in GW also, but ultimately played the party game for Viviani so sacrificed whatever chances he himself might have had. 

It's all about this race though for Gilbert and QSF - they will hold the key to the outcome of this race again with such a formidable and powerful squad. It just feels like he has been sitting tight while others were given their opportunities, helping the team, knowing that they are all going to pay it back to him on Sunday. He has the strength, skills and stamina to be up there in the last 30kms, but how does he win this year? Well, it could all come down to team tactics and team support.

If he misses any moves, he has Terpstra, Stybar, Lampaert and the rest to chase it down. Then, when everyone is getting tired, Terpstra, Stuyven or Lampaert can fire off up the road, making GVA, Sagan and the others chase numerous times, until eventually, Gilbert goes and Sagan looks at GVA and vice-versa, and suddenly he's away. But that will take a lot strength to hold those guys off all the way to the finish if his gap isn't great. And if it comes to a sprint, he'd have a chance too, but I'd fancy Sagan to take him. He's sure to be a major player though.

Tiesj Benoot rode his socks off again in the wet and cold at DDV, but all he has to show for it is 7th place. He did attack with Stybar with just over 2kms to go though and managed to break the elastic and finish some 19" ahead of the GVA group. But he had nothing left for the sprint again, something that is a worry if it does come to a small group sprint, he doesn't really have one.. He will need to win solo, something he is capable of, but I think he'll be too much of a marked man now and will find it almost impossible to get away. 

And how much did DDV take out of him? He looked absolutely shattered coming to the finish, he had been working extremely hard all day, attacking repeatedly and he left it all out on the road, unlike a lot of others who called it a day early on. He has a strong team with him as you'd expect, with Wallays, Debusschere, Sieberg, De Buyst and Maes all scheduled to ride.. but it was noticeable how few of them were involved in the latter stages of DDV, were they told save themselves or were they just not on good form?

And what about the Sky squad? Michal Kwiatkowski is fifth favourite for the race at just 11/1 with Bet365, despite his best result being 27th in this race, the last time he did it back in 2016. Before that he finished 40th in 2013 and DNF'ed in 2011. Of course he has won an E3 in 2016, outfoxing none other than Peter Sagan in the sprint, and he has an Amstel Gold and MSR to his name too. But is he good enough to win Flanders? I don't think so and I think he's a crazy price at just 11/1. 

Gianni Moscon has been involved in a lot of the big races so far this year, including taking 14th in Strade Bianche, 8th in E3 and 12th in DDV. He also has had fine rides in Valenciana and Tirreno and took a 2nd and 8th place in two of the Mallorca races early in the season. He seems to be there at the pointy end of most races he enters, and he was 15th here last year after all, but seems to lack the killer instinct or that last bit of power or strength to get him a big result. But it will come though, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him getting a big result in a race like this in the near future. But maybe not this Sunday. 

My man from Sky though will be Dylan Van Baarle again this year.. I had him e/w at 100/1 last year with four places and he did an incredible ride to take 4th, 3rd in the sprint behind Van Avermaet. He rode very well that day, got a bit lucky with the crash on the Kwaremont as he was a little back and avoided it and then stayed with GVA and Terpstra when they caught up to him on the run-in. But he's at home on these roads and enjoys them, he was 6th two years ago remember.. He has also a 3rd place in Dwars Door to his name in 2015. I'm hoping he can stay with the lead groups, or maybe try to clip off himself and see how he gets on, he might not be as heavily marked as some others, including his team-mates Kwiat and Moscon. 

And what about poor old Sep Vanmarcke? Always the bridesmaid eh.. Again in DDV on Wed he had a big chance to land a big result, he was smart enough and strong enough to get in the winning move, he was prominent all day and looked comfortable. But he blew it at the finish... again.. Whether he was out on his feet and just couldn't chase at all, or was just unlucky in that he thought Teunissen would chase, but he didn't and when he went to go after Stybar, Teunissen accidently cut him up and that was the end of that. But he made no effort to go again, I think he was just cooked, he certainly looked it on TV afterwards. 

7th in E3 this year, 3rd in OHN with a late surge, he has finished 3rd twice in this race, 2nd twice in GW, 2nd in Paris-Roubaix etc etc.. his palmares is littered with close but no cigar results.. He has a great chance of being in the top 5 again Sunday, he's one of the few who will be able to stay with the likes of Sagan and GVA when they put the hammer down on the key hellingen and will chase everything down in the late attacks.. But can he win it? Unlikely.. another honourable defeat for him I fear. 

They might be better off trying to look after Sacha Modolo and see if they can take him to a sprint finish. Modolo continues to show good ability in races like this, taking 14th in OHN and MSR, 11th in GW and finished with the first main group to come home after the GVA group in DDV Wednesday. Last year he finished 10th in GW and an impressive 6th in this race, finishing just behind Kristoff in the sprint for 5th place. He has a lot of DNFs to his name though in his results in these sorts of races in previous years, he has a bad habit of crashing all the time.. So you're taking a gamble that he actually even makes it to the finish if you're backing him at 125/1, but that's a very nice price if he stays upright and in the game. 

Niki Terpstra and Zdenek Stybar are both 14/1 with 365, hard to split them it seems. And understandably so, they are both in great form and go well here. Terpstra has two wins to his name already this season though, whereas Stybar has been Domestique De Luxe so far this season, working his ass off for team-mates like Terpstra, Lampaert, Gilbert and Viviani. Can Terpstra sneak away while all eyes are on Gilbert? It's possible.. We might even see the QSF boys look to blow it up on the Taaienberg or Kwaremont to see who comes with them and put a lot of guys out of the race with 40-60kms left to go.

Terpstra came very close to winning this in 2015, attacking away with Kristoff after the Kruisberg and suddenly easing themselves in to a nice little lead. But as they hit the Kwaremont the gap to the Sagan/GVA/Thomas chasing group was only 14". But Terpstra did what he did in E3 and just powered his way home with AK, holding off GVA and Sagan who were in hot pursuit for all of the last 12kms or so. But Kristoff was too good for him in the sprint and he had to settle for an honourable 2nd.. Will this year be a chance to improve on that and take his 3rd big win of the season?

Stybar's last four results in the big Classic races read 7th (SB), 9th (E3), 8th (GW) and 6th (DDV) - pretty impressive to say the least. He has finished 2nd twice in Paris-Roubaix and E3, and he has finished in the top 10 twice here in 2015 and 2016. But a bit like Vanmarcke in these races, he seems to always do well, but lacks that final kick or killer instinct to nail it. That, and the fact that he seems to always be working for team-mates means it's hard for him to win it sometimes. Things have to fall right for him like chasing down a small break that actually gets away and stays away, or the likes of Gilbert or Terpstra crashing out so leadership is passed to him. I expect another top 10 from him Sunday, maybe even a podium, but not sure he can win it. 

The first real sprinter in the betting is Alexander Kristoff at 20/1, and you can see why he's the pick of the sprinters, as he is the most likely to be involved. Winner of this race in 2015 in fine style, his record in this race in the last six years reads 15th, 4th, 5th, 1st, 4th 5th, an amazing set of results for such a difficult race. His win in 2015 was amazing, he blasted past us on the Kwaremont with Terpstra and the style in which he won that marks him out as more than just a sprinter, there was power all day long from him.

He has been looking good in recent races too, he missed the big move in Gent Wevelgem but then took off in pursuit of the leaders with MC Neilsen and Michael Valgren and they managed to ride away from their group, finishing just a minute behind the lead group. A stage winner in Abu Dhabi and 4th on the climb to Hatta Dam, he seems to be in good form and is sure to be involved. He's good at positioning in this race and has the power to stay with the strong men over the short, punchy climbs. Discount him at your peril.. 

Naesen kneeOliver Naesen - where would he have come last year if it weren't for the crash? Hard to know, but I'd have thought 3rd out of that trio in a sprint. He finished 23rd in the end last year, he didn't get up and get going as quick as GVA did. 6th in DDV last year, 3rd in E3, he looked set for a big result in Flanders too before the fall, possibly a podium, if Gilbert had been caught.

He's finished 4th in E3 this year and 6th in GW, sprinting to a fine result there, but DNF'ed in DDV as he crashed early in the race. The DS said afterwards that Oliver said to them that his knee hurt a lot so they immediately pulled him out of the race to try to save him for Flanders.. But that worries me enough to not want to get involved with him on Sunday, if his knee hurts he's going to struggle. You can see his leggings are ripped in the pic on the right after the crash.. It's reported he is resting today and will make a decision after a recon ride on Friday. 

Matteo Trentin I have backed several times recently hoping for a good result and he has been involved, but just not quite good enough to make a return for me. 11th in E3 and 7th in GW, he looked very strong both days and I was really hoping for more than 7th in GW, but he had nothing left for the sprint. He's never done great in this race though, but has been getting closer, his 13th place last year was not a bad result at all, he came home in the group sprinting for 5th, but didn't even take part in the sprint really.

Who knows what we get from him Sunday, he should ride it like Kristoff, tail him all day and see how he gets on. He will need to come there with a very small group of non-sprinters though as he seems to have lost a lot of his speed this year. 

Wout Van Aert continues his meteoric rise in the road ranks, with a fine 10th in GW to follow his 3rd place in Strade Bianche. He was looking ok too on Wednesday in DDV, but had multiple mechanicals which took him out of the race, he dropped down the field at the worst possible time and there was no way back. He should be well able to handle the course, but will the distance be too much for him after a tough DDV? Well GW was only 15kms less and he sprinted to 10th.. It's probably all systems go for PR the week after for him, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him come home around 10th - 15th place again. 

Vincenzo Nibali will be an interesting one to watch following his heroics in MSR a few weeks back. It's a big surprise to see him here, and after seeing what Valverde did in DDV, he must be looking forward to seeing what he can do on these roads. He's never ever raced in a Flanders race before, but let's not forget what he did in stage 5 of the TDF in 2014 when he and Fuglsang powered away over the cobbles of Flanders to take 3rd place behind Lars Boom. He certainly looked at home that day and it's strange how he has never tried a cobbled race since. 

But here he is, how will he cope with the Hellingen? You'd think he'd be comfortable enough, and he has the power to stay with the likes of GVA and Sagan normally, but it might all be a bit too much at once for him. They also have Sonny Colbrelli and Heinrich Haussler who are both going well at the moment too and Colbrelli has a good record around these roads recently, with 8th in OHN and 3rd in KBK already this year. 10th here last year, he followed that up with a win in Brabantse Pijl.

Haussler is coming back from injury and has started to look good in his races recently. And he has of course finished 2nd in this race, way back in 2009, ahead of Gilbert in a bunch sprint. He also finished 6th in 2013, finishing 3rd in the sprint for 4th place. He could be a dark horse, but I've a feeling Nibali and Haussler will both be working to try to get Colbrelli to a sprint outcome. 

One other outsider I'd like a little nibble on is Michael Valgren, as he has been targeting this apparently according to his DS.. He has been riding very well of course of late, winning OHN with a strong late attack. He was going ok in DDV unti he hit a photographer and came down, but he seems to be ok and ready to go. At 66/1 he might give us a run for our money, and is probably Astana's best hope for a good result.

Arnaud Démare and John Degenkolb are two more sprinters who might be able to hang in there, but it will be hard for them, PR the week after is probably more suitable for both. Tony Martin will probably be prominent for a while, but hard to see him soloing away from them all, and Yves Lampaert might be back to team duties again, but he was so strong in DDV I wouldn't be surprised to see him part of a final selection. Luke Durbridge, Alexey Lutsenko, Edward Theuns, Mike Teunissen, Jurgen Roelandts, Jens Debusschere, MC Neilsen and Stefan Kung are all guys who could go well on a really good day, but hard to see any of them notching a podium. 

 

Conclusion

I honestly think this is Sagan's race to lose, I think he will rise above all on Sunday and take his second win in 3 years. GVA just doesn't look himself this year, and I think Gilbert will not be let get away with what happened last year again. Tiesj Benoot just isn't at Sagan's level yet, and Vanmarcke and Stybar might not be able to stay with him when he goes on the Paterberg. And even if they do, he'll beat them in a sprint. Dyan Van Baarle flies the outsider flag for me, but I'm also keeping Kristoff onside as I think he is looking very strong and could well make it to the finish with a lead group, or even sprint to a podium place behind a solo winner (Sagan...!).

  

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Alexander Kristoff at 18/1 with Skybet paying four places

2pts win on Peter Sagan at 3/1 with Ladbrokes

0.25pts each-way on Dylan Van Baarle at 66/1 with Skybet paying four places

0.25pts each-way on Michael Valgren at 66/1 with various

 

Matchbets

Vanmarcke to beat Benoot - 2pts at 5/4

Durbridge to beat Martin, Sagan to beat Kwiat and Stybar to beat Terpstra - 2pts at 2.29/1

Kristoff to beat Degenkolb and Lampaert to beat Roelandts - 3pts at 1.29/1

 

 

Here are my top ten riders to watch for those of you out there that like playing Zweeler Fantasy Games - the prize fund for this year's Flanders is over €2,000!

zweeler logoHere's my ten to watch for Tour of Flanders

1 Peter Sagan

2 Greg Van Avermaet

Alexander Kristoff

4 Teisj Benoot

5 Zdenek Stybar

6 Philippe Gilbert

7 Dylan Van Baarle

8 Luke Durbridge

9 Niki Terpstra

10 Matteo Trentin

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